Richmond - time for a rebuild?
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sawyer
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Good effort mate I like this, what about our 2024 1st rounder and a few seconds, it’s not all doom and gloom, I agree with everyone that pick 6 and 31 was way too much for hopper, it’s not like bad trades never happen, he could be serviceable it’s a loss but not a complete loss, certainly not ideal when you have a poor season the silver lining is you bring in a potential a grade star for your club, lucky dealing in hindsight is for Kane Cornes and geelong supporting armchair experts on big footy, I trust the club with our previous history drafting gem late picks and rookies to move forward and onward.
- Mar 19, 2016
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Yep. We paid massive overs but let's see how his career goes from here. I doubt anything from pick 31 onward from last year will be much but, again, let's see how that plays out.
But we got Taranto cheap. Off-set by nabbing a second-round pick that a club gave us for Coleman-Jones, who has played nine games this year for a grand total of four goals. Plus, the muppet club has him on the books for another two years.
Anyway, I agree our list is shaky at best, cactus at worst. But Lynch, Bolton, Baker, Balta (maybe, maybe not), Vlastuin, Broad, Taranto, Hopper, DRioli and Short, nearly all of whom have a few years of good footy left means we might be able to avoid a WC or North-level disaster.
I doubt you would have seen Cotchin Rance Riewoldt and Dusty as prospectively the players they became in 2010-11.
There is no doubt we are light on for quality key forward prospects and the same with inside mids, but if a couple of reasonable ones emerge from our large young pack and we add a couple of trades or free agents then like any team(Adelaide a great current example) you can suddenly compete with anyone. There is maybe a difference between that and building a dynasty team, but nobody expects by right to produce dynasty teams every generation.
The club's aim will be to get a list that can compete and contend, and we will have just a good a chance of doing that as any other club - allowing for the fact some teams are ready to explode right now and we are likely a bit behind that.
sawyer
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- Mar 16, 2002
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3 coaches in 23 years …. Move along twit
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pick 2,18,13 & 3 though, you'd hope a suite of picks like that pay off*
*as a carlton fan, i know they don't always...
If Coleman-Jones was still at Richmond they would at least have pressure for Jacks spot, which isnt there at the moment, hence why he will go around again.
Theres certainly some talent there as mentioned, by they will be bottom 6 for the foreseeable future.
You cant pay the equivalent of a top 5 pick for a B grader in Hopper.
The picks given up for Hopper were pick 34 in the 2022 draft, and Richmond's 2023 first round pick. That pick is as likely as not to land at around pick 9. That is not giving up a top 5 pick. When all is said and done Richmond will have given up the value of around pick 7 or 8 for Hopper. Let's say the high pick is pick 8. Below is the history of pick 8's since 1990. Hopper is probably likely to end up playing about 240 AFL games. Now I am going to say 3 of the last 6 pick 8's turn out more valuable than Hopper in the long term. Would you agree Hopper is a more valuable player than at least about 25 of these last 33 pick 8's? That is before we consider that Richmond(and the world) would have been expecting to be giving up about pick 15(+34) when they made the trade. There is no doubt pick 8 would be a valuable pick, but you are probably looking realistically at about a 30% chance at best to get a player better than Hopper judging by the long history of the selection. And let's not forget Hopper fills an area of desperate need for Richmond.
- Jun 23, 2013
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The Hopper trade isn't a good one. Could have got a gun, instead they have to wait another year
LukeParkerno1
Post-Human
Main issue with the Hopper deal is was he the type that was needed? You hit Tarranto who is a mile better. Did you need another one?
If our midfield has not broken even after recruiting Hopper and Taranto, how do you think it would be looking had we not traded for the 2 of them?
Hopper and Taranto's history shows they are similar level players. One has had an injury interrupted season, the other has had a good run. If Richmond crash and burn(we won't,) then it will not be because we traded for Jacob Hopper.
- Jun 19, 2006
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You hadn't turned your form around but the majority of your key players were drafted before the compromised drafts of 2010 onwards.
You got Reiwoldt and Edwards in 2006, Cotchin and Rance in 2007 then Martin, Astbury and Grimes in 2009. 7 absolutely key players were on your list already.
I think the only guys of note that you got during the compromised drafts were Vlastuin and McIntosh. The rest were either there already, drafted later or trade and free agency pick ups.
It will be worse with an ageing Martin, Pickett and McIntosh.
You don't see it do you?
This list is absolutely horrible. Lynch will be back and he will struggle to kick 40 goals.
If you are a prospective coach, you are steering the sinking ship.
Elmer_Judd
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Hardwick is mostly to blame for that one imo.
He pitched it to RFC and Hopper to join the Tigers than decided to quit almost halfway through the following season that he was 'burnt out' (question mark)
I like the look of Jack Ross and I think Bauer may be a player. Gibcus looked a quality defender in the making in his first season (injured this season) and I thought Sonsie looked good too last year (don't know what happened with him)
- Jun 19, 2006
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No it'll be because of poor recruitment and development. But when you've spent virtually every high pick recently on smalls it's strange to go big for 2x experienced midfielders.
It feels like it really limits opportunities to Dow, Sonsie, Brown, Banks, Clarke, Ross, Baker, Ralphsmith, Rioli, etc who you would have recruited hoping some or all would become midfielders over time.
It feels like if the recruitment and development really works at Richmond they'll likely be left with a lot of mids and very thin for quality talls. And the large contracts given out to Taranto, Hopper, Bolton, Rioli, etc makes it more difficult to fill the gap in quality talls via FA or trade.
For a start, our list cannot be horrible if it has basically won 3 flags and a minor Premiership. A lot of those players are past their best now but that was inevitable.
Lynch if he struggles will be new. He has never struggled yet and Richmond has only really seen elite performance from him. If his foot doesn't allow him to perform near his best then this is a chance to occur with any elite footballer, and it is just bad luck you cannot legislate for.
Richmond's list quality going forward will live or die to a large extent by the development of our young players, and our ability to find another couple of strong marquee salary players to join the likes of Bolton, Balta, Taranto and Hopper after the Lynch and Martin and Prestia contracts expire(the latter 2 after 2024, the former after 2025.) The club will no doubt be working on a marquee key forward and possibly a quality inside/outside mid as we speak.
In terms of the rest of the list, there is no real reason to be concerned about our deep pool of young players. They haven't had the greatest of seasons in 2023 for various reasons, but we look to have a potential marquee kpp in Gibcus. And the following list of young players 22 and below who have shown promise:
Ross, Ryan, Cumberland, Coulthard, Ralphsmith, Bauer, Rioli jnr, Sonsie, Banks, Brown, Clarke. This looks a decent contingent in terms of being able to fill out the 7-12 ranked players on our list as they mature.
So don't panic my friend, we have a couple of challenges like most clubs, but all will be well.
LukeParkerno1
Post-Human
The issue is did you need both? 1 surely was enough and Tarranto was a lot better and you could have banked the first rounder this season.
I am pretty sure Richmond is working on a gun key forward to come across after 2024. We have other key position players for the future in Balta, Young, Gibcus who look a decent group. So if we got a strong key forward then you wouldn't be too concerned about that area. Probably the most obvious thing lacking beyond that is a damaging hybrid mid, like say a Rozee, or a Warner. Like quality key forwards, they are not easy to get your hands on, but Richmond have 3 marquee contracts expiring over the next 2 years(Martin, Prestia, Lynch) so you would imagine there will be some cash to use.
- Sep 15, 2011
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Our list still has a number of players with a premiership and six consecutive years of finals. Age does funny things to you. It absolutely can be horrible once those players aren't producing.For a start, our list cannot be horrible if it has basically won 3 flags and a minor Premiership. A lot of those players are past their best now but that was inevitable.
Lynch if he struggles will be new. He has never struggled yet and Richmond has only really seen elite performance from him. If his foot doesn't allow him to perform near his best then this is a chance to occur with any elite footballer, and it is just bad luck you cannot legislate for.
Richmond's list quality going forward will live or die to a large extent by the development of our young players, and our ability to find another couple of strong marquee salary players to join the likes of Bolton, Balta, Taranto and Hopper after the Lynch and Martin and Prestia contracts expire(the latter 2 after 2024, the former after 2025.) The club will no doubt be working on a marquee key forward and possibly a quality inside/outside mid as we speak.
In terms of the rest of the list, there is no real reason to be concerned about our deep pool of young players. They haven't had the greatest of seasons in 2023 for various reasons, but we look to have a potential marquee kpp in Gibcus. And the following list of young players 22 and below who have shown promise:
Ross, Ryan, Cumberland, Coulthard, Ralphsmith, Bauer, Rioli jnr, Sonsie, Banks, Brown, Clarke. This looks a decent contingent in terms of being able to fill out the 7-12 ranked players on our list as they mature.
So don't panic my friend, we have a couple of challenges like most clubs, but all will be well.
I would say Richmond needed 2 bigger bodied mature inside mids for sure. Next year Hopper may get a good run and Taranto has issues and getting the second guy will look sensible. The fact they knew each other and were used to playing together and they were affordable just made it a no-brainer for mine.
Even if it turns out Hopper never plays so well with us, this is not something you could be expected to foresee given his record. In 2016 Richmond spent 1st, 2nd and 3rd round draft picks on Prestia, Caddy and Nankervis. Getting Prestia and Caddy who had played together probably had certain benefits to those two players, but also in attracting Lynch later, who they had played with. After that experience I can't really see how Richmond should be refusing to get Hopper and Taranto as a job lot. It won't work out every time, but it is a sound strategy to deploy imo.
I think the Eagles case is a bit different as you had your entire list decimated by Covid related and injury issues. It is not anything the club did wrong or could have foreseen.
I know if I was running a footy club I would rather err on the side of retaining high performing players a little too long than err on the side of cutting them early.
There are two worrying things for Richmond imo.
1. The lack of depth. This team looks scary at full strength but every injury replacement seems to be a massive drop off. They have had some very good games, and some where they just look a mile off.
2. Brining in Taranto and Hopper and trading out draft picks puts you on the clock. The 'rebuilt' core of Hopper/Taranto/Bolton/Balta will all be 24 pr older by the end of the year which gives you 6 years with this group.
Combining those two issues is the big concern. This is a team likely to finish bottom 6. No first round draft pick two years straight, so no high end talent injection that you can really count on being a difference maker in that 6 year period. A pire free agent could help byt i don't see why they pick Richmond so you can't count on it.
So for it to succeed you have to:
It reminds me a lot of Hawthorn adding Mitchell and O'Meara. They even got one bounce back year where it all fell into place and they made top 4. But 6 years later they had to move those guys on and start again. And Hawthorn absolutely nailes some random late picks (Mitch Lewis and Newcombe) along the way, yet you still wouldn't wager on them being finals bound next year or even after that.
Basically, it ciuld work but a heap has to go right from here...
1. The lack of depth. This team looks scary at full strength but every injury replacement seems to be a massive drop off. They have had some very good games, and some where they just look a mile off.
2. Brining in Taranto and Hopper and trading out draft picks puts you on the clock. The 'rebuilt' core of Hopper/Taranto/Bolton/Balta will all be 24 pr older by the end of the year which gives you 6 years with this group.
Combining those two issues is the big concern. This is a team likely to finish bottom 6. No first round draft pick two years straight, so no high end talent injection that you can really count on being a difference maker in that 6 year period. A pire free agent could help byt i don't see why they pick Richmond so you can't count on it.
So for it to succeed you have to:
- already have an A grade core good enough to succeed
- be able to fill out the depth needed via cheap and rookie picks who can contribute almost immediately.
It reminds me a lot of Hawthorn adding Mitchell and O'Meara. They even got one bounce back year where it all fell into place and they made top 4. But 6 years later they had to move those guys on and start again. And Hawthorn absolutely nailes some random late picks (Mitch Lewis and Newcombe) along the way, yet you still wouldn't wager on them being finals bound next year or even after that.
Basically, it ciuld work but a heap has to go right from here...
- Sep 7, 2009
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Trading for Hopper and Taranto has set the Tigers back a few years. One step back before going forward
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