Preview Round 11: The Sydney Swans vs. The Essendon Bombers

[RW]

Early stats review

We conceded 78 inside 50s which is the 2nd most this year behind GWS's 83 against North and they were absolutely creamed that day.
Lost clearances 31-51. We've lost this stat in 6 of the 10 games coming in today so it wasn't a surprise to lose it again but perhaps not to this degree.
Teddy had 16 1-percenters, the majority of which were spoils on Crameri. Richards kept Crameri scoreless and assistless, two categories in which Crameri was leading the Dons in coming into this game.

Only had a chance to comment on the game now as I've been away over the long weekend, watched the match on TV... those stats confirm what I thought at the time, it was one of the strangest games I've seen in a fair while. I don't think I've seen the Swans play the way they did in the first three quarters in a very long time, despite getting beaten in so many of the key numbers, and the fact that we led by 47 points at three quarter time after repelling so many Bomber attacks was incredible. They kicked poorly, but the courage shown by our defenders was remarkable, and to pull off a win in spite of those numbers was a tremendous effort. Perhaps this match was a kind of grey swan / statistical outlier, so I'm reluctant to read too much into it as the team looked out on their feet in the last quarter and all the important balls/contests seemed to go Essendon's way.

Still, the numbers never lie, and I think that while this team has a lot of heart, and will probably give it a good shake in the second half of the year, we absolutely have to improve in the contested ball and clearances if we are to be a contender.

 

[Leg End]

Still, the numbers never lie, and I think that while this team has a lot of heart, and will probably give it a good shake in the second half of the year, we absolutely have to improve in the contested ball and clearances if we are to be a contender.

We are a contender. The traditional toughness, hard at the ball, is still there. But we now have the speed to attack with spread. Our midfield is no longer just blue collar and serviceable. We have adjusted to a completely unsettled forward line and turn at 8-3. We have recently annihilated the Bulldogs who were strating to show some form then beaten the Bombers (the VFL love interest o so many) in Melbourne with the commentators and umpiring department firmly behind htier Melbourne team. Great effort.

Soon, we will have a fit Mummy and Goodesy back. Armstrong showed some dash from the back. TDL and Reid are looking better and better. Our midfield can creep forward and kick goals.

Remember, soft free kicks and panic, pressured disposals were massive amongst Essendon's possessions in the first 3 quarters. I saw the Pies today - and they are very beatable.

We are very well placed in a very even competition.

 

[RW]

We are a contender. The traditional toughness, hard at the ball, is still there. But we now have the speed to attack with spread. Our midfield is no longer just blue collar and serviceable. We have adjusted to a completely unsettled forward line and turn at 8-3. We have recently annihilated the Bulldogs who were strating to show some form then beaten the Bombers (the VFL love interest o so many) in Melbourne with the commentators and umpiring department firmly behind htier Melbourne team. Great effort.

I absolutely agree we are right up there in a very even year, but we are still not as dominant as the stoppages as we were a few years ago, probably because we are still adjusting to a new (younger) combination of players at the clearances. We're still in with a shot this year but I reckon we haven't hit our peak yet. Will depend on injuries though (I think Parker out was a massive blow structurally).

 

[CAS79]

I absolutely agree we are right up there in a very even year, but we are still not as dominant as the stoppages as we were a few years ago, probably because we are still adjusting to a new (younger) combination of players at the clearances. We're still in with a shot this year but I reckon we haven't hit our peak yet. Will depend on injuries though (I think Parker out was a massive blow structurally).

In the past we've also had Jolly or Mumford winning a lot of quality ruck contests. For the last several weeks we've been getting beaten soundly in the ruck and it's going to take a toll on clearances. With Mumford hopefully continuing to improve and Pyke who also had most of last year off going to get better that should improve and our clearance numbers should go back up.

 

[baja]

Pre season if I was asked how Id feel sitting 2nd on the ladder after round 11 Id be absolutely stoked, and I am right now.. Go Bloods!

 

[Swanee]

I don't think people should be too concerned with Q4, Essendon were not poor in the first 3, in fact in Q 2, 3 they played amazing footy, they just couldn't finish. We matched it with them the while night, we were just better. Amazingly.

While very happy with the win, I find it very sad that despite the Swans amazing 2 1/2 quarters of brilliant football, the Bombers were able to reduce the margin and almost win with just 1 good 1/4 of football.

I had friends sending me sms's at half time and through the third quarter and at 3/4 time congratulating me on the expected win, but I was never relaxed or thought we had it won because I know we've been in similar positions before and still lost. I told my friends that the game still wasnt over and they couldnt believe me, but it happens too often. It was great burying the bulldogs the previous week, but we too often take our foot off the pedal and ket the other team in.

While we may have got the 4 points (and later in the year that will be all that is remembered), but for now i think people (including me) are more talking about the Bombers amazing comeback rather than our win, which is sad. Sometimes being a Swans supporter is very very frustrating.

 

[disgruntled goat]

In the face of the statistics our defence and midfield did a remarkable job in those first three quarters, turning what little ball we had into those outstanding spreads out and up field, to establish what was literally a match-winning lead ... oh, and in the face of that 23-13 free kick count.

 

[vonn]

While very happy with the win, I find it very sad that despite the Swans amazing 2 1/2 quarters of brilliant football, the Bombers were able to reduce the margin and almost win with just 1 good 1/4 of football.

I had friends sending me sms's at half time and through the third quarter and at 3/4 time congratulating me on the expected win, but I was never relaxed or thought we had it won because I know we've been in similar positions before and still lost. I told my friends that the game still wasnt over and they couldnt believe me, but it happens too often. It was great burying the bulldogs the previous week, but we too often take our foot off the pedal and ket the other team in.

While we may have got the 4 points (and later in the year that will be all that is remembered), but for now i think people (including me) are more talking about the Bombers amazing comeback rather than our win, which is sad. Sometimes being a Swans supporter is very very frustrating.

That is putting it way too simplistically.
Essendon were always in it, they played fantastic football but couldn't convert. If ever they did it was game on. Also we ran harder all night and ran out of legs, especially when Hanners was subbed off, that hurt our rotations and also influenced the tagging of Stanton.
Another thing is I was always a bit wary of how we'd run out the game given how much we did spread as the SCG is smaller than Etihad. Another thing if we were getting ruined in the midfield, it was only time before they started to get on top.

 

[disgruntled goat]

While very happy with the win, I find it very sad that despite the Swans amazing 2 1/2 quarters of brilliant football, the Bombers were able to reduce the margin and almost win with just 1 good 1/4 of football.

I had friends sending me sms's at half time and through the third quarter and at 3/4 time congratulating me on the expected win, but I was never relaxed or thought we had it won because I know we've been in similar positions before and still lost. I told my friends that the game still wasnt over and they couldnt believe me, but it happens too often. It was great burying the bulldogs the previous week, but we too often take our foot off the pedal and ket the other team in.

While we may have got the 4 points (and later in the year that will be all that is remembered), but for now i think people (including me) are more talking about the Bombers amazing comeback rather than our win, which is sad. Sometimes being a Swans supporter is very very frustrating.

Comeback or not, we won, they didn't. I was at the MCG a few years back, 2007 I think, maybe 06, when we came from 33 points down to Richmond and lost by a point. That hurt then, and the memory still stings now, NOT that we came from more than five goals back and ALMOST won.

We beat one of the in-form teams, a side feared for its ability to score quickly (which was proven) playing on home turf. We won ... fck their comeback ... it fell short. We did our share of wailing and gnashing of teeth last year when Goodes missed after the siren. I would think it absurdly pointless for a Sydney fan to be marvelling at what was, ultimately, a failed comeback by the Bombers.

 

[DeadlyAkkuret]

While very happy with the win, I find it very sad that despite the Swans amazing 2 1/2 quarters of brilliant football, the Bombers were able to reduce the margin and almost win with just 1 good 1/4 of football.

It took a massive anomaly for them to get back in the game. You rarely see a team kick 9 goals from 10 scoring shots, it's more likely to be 6.4 and if that were the case no one would be talking about Essendon's comeback at all.

 

[RW]

It took a massive anomaly for them to get back in the game. You rarely see a team kick 9 goals from 10 scoring shots, it's more likely to be 6.4 and if that were the case no one would be talking about Essendon's comeback at all.

Just because something rarely happens doesn't mean it can't happen. Just ask this guy

 

[Swanee]

It took a massive anomaly for them to get back in the game. You rarely see a team kick 9 goals from 10 scoring shots, it's more likely to be 6.4 and if that were the case no one would be talking about Essendon's comeback at all.

But at the end, we allowed the Bombers to come back and to dictate the last quarter and we almost lost the ability to control the result. Good teams dont lose from the position we were in at 3/4 time, and we almost did.

 

[DeadlyAkkuret]

But we didn't, and we're unlikely to see a comeback like that very often. I think it's as simple as our players running out of legs combined with complacency.

 

[Dangas]

But we didn't, and we're unlikely to see a comeback like that very often. I think it's as simple as our players running out of legs combined with complacency.

Exactly, factors as being away from home, Dons crowd vocal, that we'd be spent running in the first 3 to set up our lead and that the Bombers are a good momentum team means it would have been tough to stop the run....for us to score 2 goals during this passage, which ultimately won us the game in the end, is a credit to the side.

 

[vonn]

But at the end, we allowed the Bombers to come back and to dictate the last quarter and we almost lost the ability to control the result. Good teams dont lose from the position we were in at 3/4 time, and we almost did.

That's discrediting Essendon. They're a good team, and we never controlled the game, despite what the scoreboard said.

 

[Swanee]

But we didn't, and we're unlikely to see a comeback like that very often. I think it's as simple as our players running out of legs combined with complacency.

Its the complacency that concerns me.

 

[bungee]

Still, the numbers never lie, and I think that while this team has a lot of heart, and will probably give it a good shake in the second half of the year, we absolutely have to improve in the contested ball and clearances if we are to be a contender.

Numbers, Schlumbers.

If we win the GF by 4 points but lag in all the key indicators that's a problem for the statisticians to ponder while we're soaking ourselves in Champagne.

 

[grimlock]

As a amateur statistician, I am 71% offended by that post

 

[bedford]

Its the complacency that concerns me.

Nothing to do with complacency, they came back, as good sides do and we played dumb footy in the middle

 

[Swanee]

Nothing to do with complacency, they came back, as good sides do and we played dumb footy in the middle

Complacency or dumb footy, whatever it is, we had control of that match (scoreboard) and almost lost it. As Swans supporters we always live with our hearts in our mouth because it doesn matter how far we are in front, we so often relax or start playing defensive football and allow the other teams to come back at us. I would love to see the stats on it but we have got to be the most vulnerable team for letting teams off the hook.

 

[Leg End]

Complacency or dumb footy, whatever it is, we had control of that match (scoreboard) and almost lost it. As Swans supporters we always live with our hearts in our mouth because it doesn matter how far we are in front, we so often relax or start playing defensive football and allow the other teams to come back at us. I would love to see the stats on it but we have got to be the most vulnerable team for letting teams off the hook.

There is a reason why teams run out convincing winners - it's called momentum.

We create momentum - and did this superbly for almost 3 quarters. the Bombers are a quality team, were always going to fight bcak hard for credibility in Q4 at home., But they were also gifted soft, no effot momentum by Victorian umpires horrified at the thought of a Sydney in in Melbourne - and it almost worked. But we are a good enough team to even overcome the VFL cheats at their worst.

Have you ever seen an umpire go up and console a player at game's end?! (or, maybe, he was handing the cheque back).

 

[PaulRoos]

A good win Swannies ... take the 4 points, enjoy the victory and look to next week.

Oh it's a bye for us ..... ok, look forward to Goodesy taking his posi, we're gonna need him v Cats.

 

[Tedeski]

But at the end, we allowed the Bombers to come back and to dictate the last quarter and we almost lost the ability to control the result. Good teams dont lose from the position we were in at 3/4 time, and we almost did.

...................and we didn't
So we must be a good team.

Be happy now!

This may work to our advantage again next time we play them (perhaps finals).
They may become complacent the next time they play us based on their 'wonderful best loss ever'.
If they take comfort from one of their best losses ever, then the Bombers have serious problems because they need to question what went wrong for the first 3 Qs in front of a 95% home crowd on their home turf.
If they rely once again on kicking 9 goals 1 from 10 shots, having the umpires pay anything & everything that was nearly there & playing against a team missing such key components of their lineup with Mummy still struggling for fitness, then the Bombers have issues.

We've been questioned since our grand final years about the inability to beat top four teams. Well now we've done it to the two we've played in Hawthorn & Essendon.
All good thus far I reckon!

Cheers.

 

[Sanecow]

Have you ever seen an umpire go up and console a player at game's end?!

Yeah, that wasn't right. First of all, don't touch the players. Second, you should absolutely not care about the result or the effect of the result on a player.

 

[MF]

With fair and just umpiring the bombers would have been 65 points down at 3qtr time and the comeback wouldn't even be a discussion.

It was pathetic the way the umpires gave into the home crowd. I listened to the post game analysis on a couple of different radio stations on the way home and was absolutely stunned at the number of bombers supporters who actually thought they were rorted with a 23-13 free kick count in their favor.

And as for the umpire consoling Dempsey after the game... WTF??

"Sorry mate, we really wanted to let you have a shot, but there's only so much blatant cheating we can get away with before people take notice"