Saints, Dogs, Dockers, Lions. Who finishes highest in 2019?

[Alphonse_]

Are you confident that Saints will finish Above Freo in 2019?

As a neutral, I'd back that to the hilt. Saints ain't as bad as everyone thinks, Dockers ain't as good as Freo fans think.

Prove me wrong Freo, prove me wrong

 

[Freomaniac]

As a neutral, I'd back that to the hilt. Saints ain't as bad as everyone thinks, Dockers ain't as good as Freo fans think.

Prove me wrong Freo, prove me wrong

Let me guess, Carlton will make the top 4 in 2019?

I look at Freos fixture and they will be competitive in 2019, especially at home. Glad Freo improved on their forward options. I looked at the Saints in 2016 and 2017. The only reason they got more than 10 wins in those seasons was because they relied on Riewoldt and Montagna and they had bugger all injuries.. In 2018, Riewoldt and Montagna retired and saints were confident that their best 22 would be competitive. Well Saints got injuries to Key players and we saw how the saints 2018 season turned out.

 

[adammania9]

Tend to agree. I think we should take another step, but don’t have us playing finals yet.

Dogs have talent in my opinion. They just need to refind that spark. Bevo needs to get the best out of them this year.

The Bulldogs are really dry and I reckon a lot more needs to happen than others think before they play finals again. They pretty much have to build an entire forward line - Gowers and Schache are good starts but all other input seems to be coming from midfielders. An 8-14 record last year isn’t disastrous but their percentage of 77 more accurately describes to be where their list is.

Most seem to think they will rise purely because they won a flag not too long ago, but forget the flag just for a moment, does this list (cleared of any past success) really look like one that has the upside to play finals? I don’t see it at all.

With Brisbane, I can see them struggling for one more year but I feel like there’s enough chemistry and rolling improvement to finally get them out of the ditch. I don’t think it will take too much to finish top of this group - 8-9 wins with a good percentage seems very achievable and I think it beats the record of any side in this group.

 

[adammania9]

I can definitely see us finishing beneath Brisbane and the Western Bulldogs but would be devastated if we don’t see off St Kilda.

I’ll happily be proven wrong since I like Freo and want them to do well but I don’t see that midfield winning you many games this year - I think I read that the Dockers ranked near the bottom in both clearances and contested possessions in 2018 and that was with Lachie Neale playing every game. The forward line looks competitive but I think a couple of years of midfield growth is needed before you go up the ladder.

 

[a mayes ing]

I’ll happily be proven wrong since I like Freo and want them to do well but I don’t see that midfield winning you many games this year - I think I read that the Dockers ranked near the bottom in both clearances and contested possessions in 2018 and that was with Lachie Neale playing every game. The forward line looks competitive but I think a couple of years of midfield growth is needed before you go up the ladder.

Neale was one of the best clearance players in the AFL and now he isnt there so you can imagine how they will struggle in the middle now

 

[Virgin Dog]

The Bulldogs are really dry and I reckon a lot more needs to happen than others think before they play finals again. They pretty much have to build an entire forward line - Gowers and Schache are good starts but all other input seems to be coming from midfielders. An 8-14 record last year isn’t disastrous but their percentage of 77 more accurately describes to be where their list is.

Most seem to think they will rise purely because they won a flag not too long ago, but forget the flag just for a moment, does this list (cleared of any past success) really look like one that has the upside to play finals? I don’t see it at all.

With Brisbane, I can see them struggling for one more year but I feel like there’s enough chemistry and rolling improvement to finally get them out of the ditch. I don’t think it will take too much to finish top of this group - 8-9 wins with a good percentage seems very achievable and I think it beats the record of any side in this group.

Our midfield, minus the ruck, is among the best in the competition. With ruck included, we were ranked in the top 8. Our defence is also ranked in the top 8 despite getting barely any games out of Wood and Morris lately.

The biggest question mark over our list is the forward line. As you said, Schache and Gowers should be fine, but there's uncertainty over where the other goals come from. Tory Dickson is within the top 3 most accurate shots on goal in recorded AFL/VFL history, and is good for a 45+ goal season if he stayed fit (which is a struggle for him these days). People also forget about Liam Picken, who sat out the whole of 2018 with concussion issues. If he gets back, it would be enormous for our scoring. This is a guy who kicked 6 goals in a game in the latter half of 2017 basically playing as a small forward, so he has the capacity to score. Then we have guys like Greene, Lynch, Lipinski and maybe even Cavarra who could make a difference.

It's just very difficult to say what our forward line is going to look like Round 1. If they can work out something that functions even at an average level, then we should have capacity to contend for top 8. In my opinion, it'll take us another year or two to figure things out up forward, so 2020/2021 is the year I'm looking at for us to be returning to finals

 

[st_trav_ofWA]

Are you confident that Saints will finish Above Freo in 2019?

definatly not .... i can see Freo if everything clicks cracking top 4 .... but i can also see if the wheels fall off with these boom recruits who all for one reason or the other have a inkling of risk involved to them i can see Freo go balls up and become bottom 4 ... most likely it will be somewhere in the middle of both situations and Freo will come about 7th ... for my saints best case i can see us getting to 10th worst case i see us not winning a game

 

[dylan93]

Thought I already commented on this one but apparently not.

St. Kilda - Between 14th and 17th.
Western Bulldogs - Between 11th and 15th.
Fremantle - Between 11th and 15th.
Brisbane Lions - Between 9th and 13th.

 

[arsesmart]

Some actual facts on some of the more obvious examples of players "returning" to Freo:

----------------------Avg Disp-------------Avg Goals
---------------Pre-Freo-----Freo----Pre-Freo----Freo
Peter Bell-------21.1-------24.4--------1.0-------0.8
Heath Black----18.4-------21.0--------0.4-------0.4
Des Headland--13.2-------15.9--------1.0-------1.1
Josh Carr-------16.8-------19.8--------0.6-------0.5
Brad Hill--------18.0-------22.7--------0.6-------0.5
Joel Hamling---10.3-------11.6---------0.0------0.0
Cam McCarthy--8.8-------10.1---------1.7------1.5

Brad Hill - shadow of the player he was at Hawthorn
Des Hedland - nothing on what he was at Brisbane
Peter Bell - much much better when he was at the Roo's
Harley Bennell - need i say more
Heath Black - after his stint back in Melbourne coming back to freo
Adam McPhee - never reached the hights he did when at essendon
Josh Carr - was little more than a thug in Freo
Scott Gumbleton - you could argue he was a spud at Essendon but he was even more sud like at freo
Hambling - key figure in the Dogs flag but not got anywhere near that at freo
McCarthy - one break out year with GWS and has not looked close to doing it again

not returning home but players to come to freo and become spuds :
Trent Croad
Chris Tarrant
Dean Solomon
Danyle Pearce
Colin Sylvia....

its prob too early to make a call on Wilson and Matera but their first season didnt set the world on fire

the facts are right there ..
in fact the only players i can think of that started at another club and became better while at freo was Luke Mcpharlan and Troy Cook... correct me if im wrong ..

Some actual facts on some of the more obvious examples of players "returning" to Freo:

----------------------Avg Disp-------------Avg Goals
---------------Pre-Freo-----Freo----Pre-Freo----Freo
Peter Bell-------21.1-------24.4--------1.0-------0.8
Heath Black----18.4-------21.0--------0.4-------0.4
Des Headland--13.2-------15.9--------1.0-------1.1
Josh Carr-------16.8-------19.8--------0.6-------0.5
Brad Hill--------18.0-------22.7--------0.6-------0.5
Joel Hamling---10.3-------11.6---------0.0------0.0
Cam McCarthy--8.8-------10.1---------1.7------1.5