Who finishes last in 2024?

[peetoo]

A pox on commentators making predictions on ‘ I think they’ll have more injuries than other teams’. It is not a logical argument. Everyone knows a run of injuries can cruel a team but to say you know where it will happen?

Hawks lost sicily suspension and Lewis injury for significant time but were still above the obvious 2 teams in bottom spots

And predicting the youngest teams will have more injuries? Dumb

 

[Shueygod]

A pox on commentators making predictions on ‘ I think they’ll have more injuries than other teams’. It is not a logical argument. Everyone knows a run of injuries can cruel a team but to say you know where it will happen?

Hawks lost sicily suspension and Lewis injury for significant time but were still above the obvious 2 teams in bottom spots

And predicting the youngest teams will have more injuries? Dumb

When Sicily for 4 games and Lewis for 8 are your biggest complaints you’ve been pretty blessed

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

When Sicily for 4 games and Lewis for 8 are your biggest complaints you’ve been pretty blessed

Compared to the Eagles, yes, but most sides will have difficulty if they lose their two best bookends, particularly if the list is so young.

CJ playing only 8 games wasn’t great either.

 

[Makeshift Park]

When Sicily for 4 games and Lewis for 8 are your biggest complaints you’ve been pretty blessed

North's player availability in 2023 obviously wasn't as severe as WCE's, but it was still pretty bloody bad, and contributed substantially to our dismal performance.

Games missed by key players in 2023:

LDU - 9
Thomas - 11
Logue - 8
Zurhaar - 7
Xerri - 14
Phillips - 7
Simpkin - 5
Comben - 16

Improvements on that front alone will see both our teams do better this year.

(And in our case, having a single coach available for the whole year will too.)

 

[Yoda_]

Richmond are a big chance imho

Don't think it happens but a chance none the less

 

[Shueygod]

North's player availability in 2023 obviously wasn't as severe as WCE's, but it was still pretty bloody bad, and contributed substantially to our dismal performance.

Games missed by key players in 2023:

LDU - 9
Thomas - 11
Logue - 8
Zurhaar - 7
Xerri - 14
Phillips - 7
Simpkin - 5
Comben - 16

Improvements on that front alone will see both our teams do better this year.

(And in our case, having a single coach available for the whole year will too.)

Yep, I think it’s very difficult to see either of our teams being anywhere near as bad next year.

My tips are Richmond or Freo.

 

[Shueygod]

Compared to the Eagles, yes, but most sides will have difficulty if they lose their two best bookends, particularly if the list is so young.

CJ playing only 8 games wasn’t great either.

Am expecting a major improvement from the Hawks next year but Sicily is just about a guarantee to get suspended each and every year.

 

[Warwick]

North's player availability in 2023 obviously wasn't as severe as WCE's, but it was still pretty bloody bad, and contributed substantially to our dismal performance.

Games missed by key players in 2023:

LDU - 9
Thomas - 11
Logue - 8
Zurhaar - 7
Xerri - 14
Phillips - 7
Simpkin - 5
Comben - 16

Improvements on that front alone will see both our teams do better this year.

(And in our case, having a single coach available for the whole year will too.)

Really?

The ghost who walks.

 

[Makeshift Park]

Really?

The ghost who walks.

As one of the two key forwards available to us last year, yes, he's a key player.

 

[Anynameyouwish]

As one of the two key forwards available to us last year, yes, he's a key player.

So if the list wasn't why North were so bad, why did they apply for list assistance?

 

[hawkman]

Am expecting a major improvement from the Hawks next year but Sicily is just about a guarantee to get suspended each and every year.

Except last year was the 1st time he was suspended since 2018. And the 3 week suspension most thought was a terrible decision. The one against St Kilda was a bit stupid though

 

[Makeshift Park]

So if the list wasn't why North were so bad, why did they apply for list assistance?

Dunno why we applied, but I expect it’s because it was a lever of competitive advantage that was available within the rules.

Our list was a problem though, I wasn’t saying it wasn’t. There is/was a lot of young talent but also a disproportionate amount of dead weight. Hence all the delistings.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Am expecting a major improvement from the Hawks next year but Sicily is just about a guarantee to get suspended each and every year.

You can say the same for a lot of players now when you can get a week or 3 for a tackle.

 

[Jeremias]

Yep, I think it’s very difficult to see either of our teams being anywhere near as bad next year.

I don't disagree with this, but given how bad both sides were in 2023, improvement does not and will not guarantee an exit from the bottom 2 as you have predicted.

North finished 4 wins and 9 percent off 16th placed Hawthorn; West Coast 4 wins and 27% behind.

Both were worse than bad. Even if they improve that's a massive, massive gap to bridge and I'm not sure I can see it happening.

 

[Makeshift Park]

I don't disagree with this, but given how bad both sides were in 2023, improvement does not and will not guarantee an exit from the bottom 2 as you have predicted.

North finished 4 wins and 9 percent off 16th placed Hawthorn; West Coast 4 wins and 27% behind.

Both were worse than bad. Even if they improve that's a massive, massive gap to bridge and I'm not sure I can see it happening.

Just once again, consider this:

Games missed by key players in 2023:

LDU - 9
Thomas - 11
Logue - 8
Zurhaar - 7
Xerri - 14
Phillips - 7
Simpkin - 5
Comben - 16

Number of rounds where our senior coach was on mental health leave - 10

Then consider the close games:

Rnd 10 vs Swans - 90 to 93
Rnd 12 vs Bombers - 99 to 105
Rnd 19 vs Saints - 61 to 69
Rnd 20 vs Eagles - 67 to 72
Rnd 22 vs Bombers - 77 to 86

How much do you reckon all that is worth in terms of wins, losses and the percentage column?

Then consider that the Hawks only won 4 more games than us.

What were their significant outs? Sicily with 4 games, CJ with 15, Wingard with 9, Lewis with 8? That's about it?

We did have a terrible season, that's undeniable. But with a half decent injury run and the availability of a single, focused coach we would have been at a similar mark to theirs.

 

[VinnieB]

Eagles I think because their list overall is putrid

But North's backline . Good lord. That is diabolical.

Has North got any big key defenders training down there they can add to their list? If not, you have to wonder about their motivation in 2024.

 

[Makeshift Park]

Has North got any big key defenders training down there they can add to their list? If not, you have to wonder about their motivation in 2024.

Don’t reckon we need any train-on KPD types after Corr, Comben, K Dawson, Pink, and Biggie. Then there’s W Dawson in the wings, and Logue tracking ahead of schedule with his recovery. Enough big bodies there, albeit largely unproven.

If Larkey goes down, it’s a different story. It’s just CCJ (who’s had concussion problems) and the rookie Maley.

 

[RonnieRaven]

Yep, I think it’s very difficult to see either of our teams being anywhere near as bad next year.

My tips are Richmond or Freo.

What’s your thinking with freo?
Should have we asked more for Schulz?
What are the key factors for freo to have their worst season in over 20 years?
Or is it just that other bottom 8 teams will improve with progression of their youth?
Do you think dockers 2022 was the peak for the list and we should gut it and start another rebuild ?

 

[chaddy22]

I don't disagree with this, but given how bad both sides were in 2023, improvement does not and will not guarantee an exit from the bottom 2 as you have predicted.

North finished 4 wins and 9 percent off 16th placed Hawthorn; West Coast 4 wins and 27% behind.

Both were worse than bad. Even if they improve that's a massive, massive gap to bridge and I'm not sure I can see it happening.

Both West Coast and the Roos actually won three games.
The Eagles chance of avoiding the spoon depends on four things.
Injuries. If we have a normal year and we can keep Yeo, MCgovern, Ryan, Waterman on the field we should be better.
improvement within the group mainly first to third year players.
Winning home games. There are several home games against clubs who finished outside the eight that are winnable.
Other teams sliding backwards.

 

[Jeremias]

Just once again, consider this:

I had considered all of this prior to my original comment.

Doesn't change the fact that both are coming from a long way back, and I maintain it will take a significant effort for either - let alone both - to move out of the bottom 2 in 2024.

Both West Coast and the Roos actually won three games.

Yes - I didn't say otherwise.

 

[Gavin Excell]

Both West Coast and the Roos actually won three games.
The Eagles chance of avoiding the spoon depends on four things.
Injuries. If we have a normal year and we can keep Yeo, MCgovern, Ryan, Waterman on the field we should be better.
improvement within the group mainly first to third year players.
Winning home games. There are several home games against clubs who finished outside the eight that are winnable.
Other teams sliding backwards.

Winning 6-7 games a realistic goal?

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Yep, I think it’s very difficult to see either of our teams being anywhere near as bad next year.

My tips are Richmond or Freo.

Richmond have never finished below 16th on the AFL Toyota Premiership ladder, in history.

They won 10.5 games last year, enough to put them exactly 7.5 games and 40 percentage points about the structurally crucial Eagles who were holding the rest of the ladder up.

And in 2024 Richmond loses no high performing players from 2023, but potentially effectively adds:

Lynch, Koschitzke, Gibcus to the key position stocks.

Naismith and a 1 year more mature Ryan to the ruck depth.

First full pre-seasons into promising players Trezise, Coulthard, Smith, Campbell.

A raft of other promising players who are reported to be doing better this pre-season than last: Brown, Banks, Clarke, Sonsie, Rioli Jnr.

Crucial mids Prestia and Hopper reported to be getting much better pre-seasons in due to no current injuries. Graham is another in this bracket.

No doubt some of these won't amount to much and Richmond will likely have some debits as well, but we would need to have an absolute all-time annus horribilis to threaten finishing 18th on the ladder.

 

[Yoda_]

Is worth noting that North are statistically the worst club bar the expansion sides since Fitzroy. They are still coming from a long way back

 

[Shueygod]

What’s your thinking with freo?
Should have we asked more for Schulz?
What are the key factors for freo to have their worst season in over 20 years?
Or is it just that other bottom 8 teams will improve with progression of their youth?
Do you think dockers 2022 was the peak for the list and we should gut it and start another rebuild ?

The forward line is putrid, even more so with the loss of Schulz. Two main midfielders are a bit vanilla, unless Young steps up like he did in the last month. Ball movement from the backline is as slow as anything and you guys seem to love playing through Ryan who loves a long kick down the line.

Don’t think 22 was the peak but think 26/27 should be the aim once McDonald is on board and Erasmus/Johnson have a couple more years.

I think it’s very likely that GC/Hawks overtake on wins, with Geelong, Essendon, Richmond sliding down. Will be heavily dependent on injuries though.

 

[Yoda_]

Richmond have never finished below 16th on the AFL Toyota Premiership ladder, in history.

They won 10.5 games last year, enough to put them exactly 7.5 games and 40 percentage points about the structurally crucial Eagles who were holding the rest of the ladder up.

And in 2024 Richmond loses no high performing players from 2023, but potentially effectively adds:

Lynch, Koschitzke, Gibcus to the key position stocks.

Naismith and a 1 year more mature Ryan to the ruck depth.

First full pre-seasons into promising players Trezise, Coulthard, Smith, Campbell.

A raft of other promising players who are reported to be doing better this pre-season than last: Brown, Banks, Clarke, Sonsie, Rioli Jnr.

Crucial mids Prestia and Hopper reported to be getting much better pre-seasons in due to no current injuries. Graham is another in this bracket.

No doubt some of these won't amount to much and Richmond will likely have some debits as well, but we would need to have an absolute all-time annus horribilis to threaten finishing 18th on the ladder.

Essendon had never received the number 1 pick and then 2016 happened. History is there to be broken and Richmond imho are every chance to do that this year, I don't see it happening but the odds are much more appealing than many are wanting to give Richmond credit for,

No Riewodlt means more focus on Lynch who is already coming back from injury. Key defenders are waging bar the hulking horse. The midfield looks nice on paper but doesn't bat nearly as deep as you want to believe.

On paper it is all about potential and there looks like a lot at Punt road but it is just that. Potential without any exposed form