Coach Sam Mitchell's direction for the club and 2022 news

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chopflop

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He wants a "collective attacking mindset"


The twenty goal thing is an arbitrary number that communicates to the players - back yourselves and each other in.

Obviously it will need to be balanced with good defensive structure. Tbh I am hopeful this is the death knell for the McEvoy down the line kick - as a last option, sure. As a first, I'll pass.
 

Brishawk

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Couldn’t you caveat this with that stat of how often we win when we get to 100 points first. But focusing on attack may mean we open ourselves up to big losses as we come to terms with the new style.

Sam’s 120 point target could still fall short but would reach its objective as long as we are still defending well - can’t see why that will stop.
Has Sam actually made a statement about goals a game or score per game for afl? I know there was a comment about vfl but that is a very different competition.

I am using season aggregates from the ladder, not individual match scores so I can only tell you on average what happens.

As a point of comparison, Melbourne score 100 points five times and won well each time. But that is 5 wins out of 17 wins. Not a high proportion of high scores. That had losing scores of 95, 63, 55 and 65 with scores against in those games of 96, 80, 64 and 85. The 22 game average points for was 85.8 and average against was 65.6. In losses they scored 81.25 and had 69.5 against. You can see that both points for and against shift. The two variables are derived simultaneously, at least for good teams.

Essendon scored 100+ on 7 occasions. They won 4 and lost 3 of them! If we look at games in which they scored 90 or more points (so we can examine games in which their scoring strategy was effective), you can see the big difference in their outcome is determined by how much they are scored against.

1634622251316.png


If we look at all games:
1634622455006.png


You can see the average against isn't much different for wins or losses, compared to the high scoring subset above.
Essendon won 7 and lost 4 scoring 90 points or more while they won all 11 games and lost 3 restricting their opponent to less than 90 points. Pretty obvious what they will be working on over preseason :p

For Hawthorn, we were not too good at scoring 100 points, so not too much to interrogate :D
 

CHUBBSS

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Has Sam actually made a statement about goals a game or score per game for afl? I know there was a comment about vfl but that is a very different competition.

I am using season aggregates from the ladder, not individual match scores so I can only tell you on average what happens.

As a point of comparison, Melbourne score 100 points five times and won well each time. But that is 5 wins out of 17 wins. Not a high proportion of high scores. That had losing scores of 95, 63, 55 and 65 with scores against in those games of 96, 80, 64 and 85. The 22 game average points for was 85.8 and average against was 65.6. In losses they scored 81.25 and had 69.5 against. You can see that both points for and against shift. The two variables are derived simultaneously, at least for good teams.

Essendon scored 100+ on 7 occasions. They won 4 and lost 3 of them! If we look at games in which they scored 90 or more points (so we can examine games in which their scoring strategy was effective), you can see the big difference in their outcome is determined by how much they are scored against.

View attachment 1263670

If we look at all games:
View attachment 1263672

You can see the average against isn't much different for wins or losses, compared to the high scoring subset above.
Essendon won 7 and lost 4 scoring 90 points or more while they won all 11 games and lost 3 restricting their opponent to less than 90 points. Pretty obvious what they will be working on over preseason :p

For Hawthorn, we were not too good at scoring 100 points, so not too much to interrogate :D
Cheers for all the info! Will be interesting how it all plays out.

I thought I remembered Sam saying in themic’d up video for the need to drive higher scores, but I could be wrong He hasn’t talked about it in any articles tho
 

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Brishawk

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Cheers for all the info! Will be interesting how it all plays out.

I thought I remembered Sam saying in themic’d up video for the need to drive higher scores, but I could be wrong He hasn’t talked about it in any articles tho
We definitely need to score more but we are only two goals a game behind the premiers. Defence we are 3.5 behind. So we need to do a lot of work there and it will translate into more wins than if we address just the scoring side.
 

Simon Crawshay

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We used to score pretty heavily during the 3-peat era. Barely got under 100.......and our defense was damn good too
Some people say that the games in which you just scrape over the line against quality opposition by a goal in a close fought tussle are important to a sides confidence (which they are of course).

But equally important in my view are the games in which you absolutely blow a lesser team away by 10+ goals. Our 3 peat sides used to do this in a regular basis and I swear those big wins had an impact on other teams mentally whenever they played us (always thinking I hope we don't get smashed)

If you just try and eak out a dour 9 goal to 7 goal win every week the opposition always thinks they are in with a chance. You don't establish a mental edge.

Look at Melbourne's final series, they absolutely destroyed the three teams they came up against. I think each big win gave them more confidence for the subsequent game with the knowledge they could blow a team away with their scoring.
 

Simon Crawshay

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We definitely need to score more but we are only two goals a game behind the premiers. Defence we are 3.5 behind. So we need to do a lot of work there and it will translate into more wins than if we address just the scoring side.
We may have only been two goals a game behind them over the regular season but we are a long way away from being able to do what Melbourne did offensively over the finals season.

I think those figures about our defense being 3.5 goals behind are a bit skewed as well given how badly our midfield got pumped the first half of the year (and how often we lost the inside 50 count).
 
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Here’s my input on the midfield, the defence and the forward line - in fact on the whole shooting match.

I think next year will interesting, reports that say that something has or hasn't happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know.

I hope my input has cleared things up and settled people expectations for 2022.

Thinking about my analysis, I’m pretty certain I’ve just burst a vessel - it‘s time for Dad to lay down and have a nap!!!
 

MasterSamurai

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2011- 105 pts per game
2012- 120 pts
2013- 113 pts
2014- 112 pts
2015- 109 pts

That's 5 seasons averages over 126 games!!
Crazy stuff when you think about it, no wonder we as supporters are NOT enjoying our low scores over the past 4-5 years!
Second half of this season our mids pushed Frwd more and kicked a few goals which helps. Back in the glory days, Lewis, Hodge, Smith , Hill and Burgoyne were very good at chipping in when the team needed some goals. Now, it's up to Worpel, Mitchell, O'Meara, Chad, Bramble etc... To become attacking threats in games.
 

Brishawk

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We may have only been two goals a game behind them over the regular season but we are a long way away from being able to do what Melbourne did offensively over the finals season.

I think those figures about our defense being 3.5 goals behind are a bit skewed as well given how badly our midfield got pumped the first half of the year (and how often we lost the inside 50 count).
Absolutely. There is a lot that needs to happen for us to achieve statistical equivalence with the premier let alone win a premiership.
 

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Simon Crawshay

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2011- 105 pts per game
2012- 120 pts
2013- 113 pts
2014- 112 pts
2015- 109 pts

That's 5 seasons averages over 126 games!!
Crazy stuff when you think about it, no wonder we as supporters are NOT enjoying our low scores over the past 4-5 years!
Second half of this season our mids pushed Frwd more and kicked a few goals which helps. Back in the glory days, Lewis, Hodge, Smith , Hill and Burgoyne were very good at chipping in when the team needed some goals. Now, it's up to Worpel, Mitchell, O'Meara, Chad, Bramble etc... To become attacking threats in games.
Yeh its crazy to think that 6 years ago we were averaging 105 points a match and now we struggle to kick 100 points once a year!

I read an article in the middle of our 3 peat (Rohan Connelly maybe) which stated that the Hawks had gone behind just winning, they were intent on turning their gamestyle into an art form. The way those teams used to move the ball and the skills on display I had to agree with him.

Well if those 3 peat years were Beethoven then the last 3 have been Nickleback!

I don't see anything wrong with putting pressure on our coaching team to implement an attractive, attacking style.
 

Steven Tyler

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Yeh its crazy to think that 6 years ago we were averaging 105 points a match and now we struggle to kick 100 points once a year!

I read an article in the middle of our 3 peat (Rohan Connelly maybe) which stated that the Hawks had gone behind just winning, they were intent on turning their gamestyle into an art form. The way those teams used to move the ball and the skills on display I had to agree with him.

Well if those 3 peat years were Beethoven then the last 3 have been Nickleback!

I don't see anything wrong with putting pressure on our coaching team to implement an attractive, attacking style.
It’s understandable considering the team we had 6 years ago to the team we have now
 

Blackhawk42

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For anybody against the 'attack first, score more' approach that we MIGHT roll with next season, please cast your minds back to the 2014-2015 Western Bulldogs.

They could only average around 7 wins a season under Brenden McCartney. Their defence was strong however and they often won the contested footy.
Luke Beveridge took over and said 'I don't need to touch that defensive work, they've already got it nailed'. Instead he focused on attack and they played the most entertaining brand of footy in the competition, finishing 6th with 14 wins followed by a premiership the year after.

This might be where Mitchell sees our list. We were rarely blown off the park in 2021 despite 14 losses.

If we take the game on at all costs and trust the base of defensive pressure from the recent Clarko years then anything is possible. It might be 9 wins and more heavy defeats. But we'll be on the right track.
 

Brishawk

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For anybody against the 'attack first, score more' approach that we MIGHT roll with next season, please cast your minds back to the 2014-2015 Western Bulldogs.

They could only average around 7 wins a season under Brenden McCartney. Their defence was strong however and they often won the contested footy.
Luke Beveridge took over and said 'I don't need to touch that defensive work, they've already got it nailed'. Instead he focused on attack and they played the most entertaining brand of footy in the competition, finishing 6th with 14 wins followed by a premiership the year after.

This might be where Mitchell sees our list. We were rarely blown off the park in 2021 despite 14 losses.

If we take the game on at all costs and trust the base of defensive pressure from the recent Clarko years then anything is possible. It might be 9 wins and more heavy defeats. But we'll be on the right track.
Everyone acknowledged we have to be better going forward but only three teams conceded more points than us while we outscored 5 teams. So relatively speaking our defence isn’t that great but understandable given our bad midfield performances at times and all the injuries we suffered.

dogs improved their points for by 317 and points against by 352 so improvement came at both ends by around the same amount. And this is normal. As you get better you concede less and score more. We just have proportionately more ground to make up defensively than we do offensively compared to the rest of the league.
 

TheFourPillars

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Everyone acknowledged we have to be better going forward but only three teams conceded more points than us while we outscored 5 teams. So relatively speaking our defence isn’t that great but understandable given our bad midfield performances at times and all the injuries we suffered.

dogs improved their points for by 317 and points against by 352 so improvement came at both ends by around the same amount. And this is normal. As you get better you concede less and score more. We just have proportionately more ground to make up defensively than we do offensively compared to the rest of the league.
I think when we talk defense ppl think about the back 6 but in todays football its the whole team. When the whole team was defending well we inevitably had more opportunities to score. Our real issue is our transition football. Which is part of attacking from defending. We had real issues transitioning the ball. That is where we should see the improvement
 

Yardie

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I think when we talk defense ppl think about the back 6 but in todays football its the whole team. When the whole team was defending well we inevitably had more opportunities to score. Our real issue is our transition football. Which is part of attacking from defending. We had real issues transitioning the ball. That is where we should see the improvement
When you can't transition the ball and score it ends up back in your defence. Weight of numbers leads to more scores against. Fix transition and we also should reduce the scores against.
 

William Wonka

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Is anyone else excited about the new Mitchell era?

So far we have Sam bringing in Bramble, turning Nash from a hapless foward into a promising midfield bull, pushing a mantra of 'toughness' and demanding 20 goals a game as a pass mark.

Rather than the 'firesale' being a failure I see that it has just put any mature players on notice that they need to earn their position in the side.

I think 2022 might just be filled with very happy surprises.
 

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