Season defining five round block

[Slippery Pete]

Good to see you back Colonel.​

 

[Rotayjay]

And what are the chances of the Crows finishing this round on top of the ladder? I'm glad you asked. Anyone keen for a shot?

View attachment 1672129

I believe those multis pay so much because the probability of all events going in the better's favour are * all. If I recall high school maths correctly, the probability of (say) five 50/50 events all eventuating is:

0.5 × 0.5 x 0.5 × 0.5 × 0.5 = 0.031 or 3%.

 

[Dangarman]

I believe those multis pay so much because the probability of all events going in the better's favour are * all. If I recall high school maths correctly, the probability of (say) five 50/50 events all eventuating is:

0.5 × 0.5 x 0.5 × 0.5 × 0.5 = 0.031 or 3%.

100% correct. However, these are not 50/50 events that need to happen. The probability is given by 1 divided by the paying odds. $1.01 is about 99%, $1.05 is about 95%, $1.20 is 83%, $1.50 is 66.7%, $2 is 50%, $101 is just under 1%. That is assuming there is no margin taken by the agency offering the bet. That's why both sides of the line offer only $1.86 (53.7%) and not $2. So the actual probability is $1.86/2 divided by the odds, or 0.93/odds. $1.01 bookie's odds is then more like a 92% probability which should pay more like $1.08. $101 becomes real probability of 0.92% instead of 0.99%

So from the 5 leg multi, we get that the bookies think there is a one in 11,000 chance of them all happening.

 

[rabidcrow]

Surely Lobbe leaving a team is a benefit to that team.

He's just not that good.

He kicked 37 goals - so was pretty important for them
And Acres had a brilliant season

They were always likely to struggle if Jackson came over and played like he did for Melbourne


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[rabidcrow]

They did bring in Jackson to replace Lobbe. Mundy was a big loss to them as he was still performing at a high level when he retired, they probably thought their quality young midfielders would continue their development (beside Serong none have) and also brought in JOM.

Which has pushed Brodie out of the side - and he meshed with them so well last year. Seems Jackson move has been a bit like Fevola to Brisbane!


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[TubbsFarquhar]

If King doesn't play vs us, there's no excuses for not beating the Saints. We really should be winning that.

If we can jag another win against any of Collingwood, Bulldogs and the Lions and go 6-5 (Geelong is an automatic loss), I'd call that a pass mark. Anything less and we're not playing finals. Three wins in total and we're firmly in the finals mix, four wins and we're potential top four candidates, and five wins, then get on us for the flag .

 

[TheRankineFile]

Can see the old Crowies finishing 8th, getting hammered in a final and taking 3 seasons to move on. Just saying.

 

[Kickin Goals]

Can see the old Crowies finishing 8th, getting hammered in a final and taking 3 seasons to move on. Just saying.

Probably best to say nothing then?

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

If King doesn't play vs us, there's no excuses for not beating the Saints. We really should be winning that.

If we can jag another win against any of Collingwood, Bulldogs and the Lions and go 6-5 (Geelong is an automatic loss), I'd call that a pass mark. Anything less and we're not playing finals. Three wins in total and we're firmly in the finals mix, four wins and we're potential top four candidates, and five wins, then get on us for the flag .

We should be able to really stretch their backline as they only have 1 tall defender.

 

[UcantCme]

If King doesn't play vs us, there's no excuses for not beating the Saints. We really should be winning that.

If we can jag another win against any of Collingwood, Bulldogs and the Lions and go 6-5 (Geelong is an automatic loss), I'd call that a pass mark. Anything less and we're not playing finals. Three wins in total and we're firmly in the finals mix, four wins and we're potential top four candidates, and five wins, then get on us for the flag .

We should be the saints whether King plays or not


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[TheRankineFile]

"What did you do?!"

 

[Mr MysteryGuest]

We won in 1998, 2002 and 2003.

The 2002 game was when Ayres gave the old Geelong man the bird.

Head to Head Between Adelaide and Geelong - FinalSiren.com

AFL football statistics on AFL teams, games and players.

finalsiren.com

Whilst we have rarely won in Geelong, Geelong have had few wins in Adelaide (they have had more success since we moved to Adelaide Oval).

Also geelong failed to make the 8 in each of these years, while we obviously made at least a semi-final.

Everything has to go right for us to win there.

 

[conVINCEd]

We should be able to really stretch their backline as they only have 1 tall defender.

You mean Wilkie, Howard or Battle?

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

You mean Wilkie, Howard or Battle?

Yeah, only Howard is a true key defender, as the other 2 are mediums.

Wilkie & Battle are mediums like Doedee.

 

[Milo Cyrus]

Score check 0 wins 1 loss.
9-2 done and dusted.

 

[jackster83]

Sounds like Max King

12

Max King

Age

23

Ht

202cm

Wt

100kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

7.3

2star

K

4.7

2star

HB

2.6

2star

M

2.7

3star

T

0.7

3star

G

1.4

5star

D

7.3

2star

K

4.7

2star

HB

2.6

2star

M

2.7

3star

T

0.7

1star

G

1.4

5star

D

8.0

2star

K

5.2

2star

HB

2.8

3star

M

2.8

3star

T

0.6

3star

G

1.4

5star

will be available for our game against St Kilda. Get ready for him to kick 6.0 against us lol.

 

[FR0GGY]

Sounds like Max King will be available for our game against St Kilda. Get ready for him to kick 6.0 against us lol.

Not if big Muzz has a say in it!

 

[Milo Cyrus]

Score check 0 wins 1 loss.
9-2 done and dusted.

0 wins 2 losses
8-3 done and dusted

 

[jackster83]

Not if big Muzz has a say in it!

I'm blaming you.

 

[Scorpus]

If we can beat Geelong at Kardinia Park, we'll make the grand final

 

[1970crow]

Geez, that is a hard run! We would go in underdogs in all of them at this point, but plenty of reason for optimism with the way the team is playing.

If we can win 2 that would put is in a decent position with Suns in Darwin and Eagles at home going into the bye. 8-5 would be an excellent position to be in.

Now I've gone and looked ahead and done the ladder predictor. We finish 7th on 14-9 and play the Swans in the Elimination Final. We then defeat Melbourne and Collingwood on our way to play Geelong on Grand Final day. Too early to predict who'll win that.

Suns in Darwin looking a less easy task right at the moment.

 

[1970crow]

1-4 sneaking past dogs. Just

reckon we can beat saints, but we will make it harder than it should be at selection.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

0 wins 2 losses
8-3 done and dusted

If we go 0-5, we have been Spackled!

 

[1970crow]

Not if big Muzz has a say in it!

nice work.

 

[WetCrow1991]

0-5 is Nicks fired territory.

Really makes all the wank about the Crows in the previously few weeks really hilarious.