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Season To Date
6 and 5 aint bad.....it aint a lock on top 4 though either. Problem I have is we haven't beaten anyone yet. Cats, Blues, Saints, Hawks and Bullies are still out there......
Coach
Ultimately I think the coaching issue is pretty straight forward. Mick has had the side for 10 yrs and we haven't won a premiership. Whilst we have won the last 3 games we still really haven't beaten any of the good sides. There have been injuries but every side has them so cannot make excuses.
Granted he has done a good job but one can't argue its been outstanding. The win rate is about 50% and its unprecedented that a coach whose had 10 yrs, 50% win rate and no premierships would get an extension.
At a more myopic level there have been arguably 2 rebuilds and we are in the midst of a third. The side lacks skill vs the elite teams and he needs to accept that given he instructs the recruiters he has to accept some ownership. The line 'I don't have the cattle' wears thin after 10 years.
Am really perplexed about his game plan as well against the better sides. . Our best footy was vs North, second half of Port and more recently Melb. In those games we showed that when running and using corridor we could score....and score heavily. Dick, Didak, Medhurst, Anthony are all sensational 1:1. In contrast, our worst footy is just plain terrible and frankly at times I have lost interest as I think its a terrible brand of footy that the better sides pick off. The good sides sweat on our chipping and boundary style and having caused it pump it into the corridor. Ultimately our game plan needs to be able to beat the Cats, Saints,Carlton and the Hawks - at this stage seen no evidence it can.
In short, a top 4 finish and he is a chance for an extension and a GF berth makes him a 'shoe in' I suspect.
The coaching sub committee have a massive task as they have essentially committed to an answer before seasons end........odd!
My tip is that Bucks will be there next year. If only because there is no upside in having him coach elsewhere.
Senior Players
John Anthony - when you think of players who have improved in last 12 months on our list its pretty thin. This bloke has improved in spades. So much so at start of year I was still thinking he goes back post Presti but not now. Competitive, fast lead, strong hands and great kick......perfect for FF in modern game. Get the ball in quick to a 1:1 and he will go well. Club would do well to get a FF of yesteryear who played a similar game style to fast track him. Couldn't do worse than BT. Before the knee he was pretty agile, post the knee use the bulk beautifully.
Jaxson Barham - suspect he set himself a goal to play AFL this year and that's been achieved so he and club would be rapt. Also showed a bit. Pace, aggression and intensity all very good. Skills improved over his time in seniors but biggest knock is that he is to light. Time in the gym and he could become a Wojinski type which would be sensational.
Dayne Beams - lovely player. He will be a gem. You can just see his a young Mr Burns in the making - possibly even a little better at the same age. Good motor, burst of speed, skilled, makes good decisions, kicks a goal and tough. Class above VFL level already. Love him.
Jarrad Blight - highly regarded junior who I thought was a top 25 pick so rapt we got him where we did. He is an attacking HBF type who will develop along similar veins to Heath Shaw. Good courage, backs himself and natural inclination will be to attack from HB or even the wing where he has spent a lot of his junior days. Skills are good as well.
Leigh Brown - I was probably 50:50 on recruiting this bloke but could see the logic. We didn't know how Presti would go and the thinking was back up. To be fair to him he has been thrown into roles up and down the spine and hasn't had a chance to settle. Difference between best and worst a problem which is frustrating bc best is pretty good. Big blokes mature late so he may yet find that level of consistency. Unfortunately he aint up to being a part of best 22 and its hard to see what role he fills when Clokes back. Particularly if Wood stays in. Clearly the ruck issue is a worry so he helps there but with Reid being trained up down back then I suspect that's the answer post Presti. He shows glimpses but like Bryan - if the intensity is off he is shot.
Nathan Brown - a real find and a player who offers a fair bit of upside. Good in the air, aggressive, beaut kick and increasingly good composure. I think the only chink to work out is his penchant for wanting to shirtfront/bump as opposed to tackle. The safer option is the tackle because if you miss it looks horrible and they can hurt you on the scoreboard. FB is probably the right spot once Presti is gone because the turning circle aint great - he is a Ben Rutten type. Reid at CHB is appealing and a nice combo for future years.
Chris Bryan - there are blokes like Toovey who don't have a heap of talent but you can never question their preparedness to give their all every game. Bryan on the hand is certainly talented but the intensity level varies significantly game to game. A real shame because their is a spot for him but it appears the club have decided to play him primarily as a fwd - if he excels at that he may get another year - if not suspect he is gone.
Marty Clarke - another who I was hoping would go the next step and hasn't although recent form improving. Got to remember he is still a pup to the game. Always gives his all and to be fair is often caught when already in heavy traffic. His role is also being tinkered with insomuch as has been pushed to more mid role and that's a massive change for him as he hasn't played there before. Am ok with that as the motor is good and the skills good as well. Will take time but the transition is proving a learning curve. When he masters it will be terrific.
Anthony Corrie - wasn't unhappy when he was recruited. Offered pace and goal kicking. First game vs WCE was promising and the game vs North was sensational. The last 2 senior games he had have been ave to poor so will be interesting to see what happens. Dick is in front of him and definately should stay that way. You can see why a coach would want him as every team needs a couple of quick, line breaking and silky types. Jury is out and he has 14 games to go otherwise I suspect he is gone.
Ryan Cook - Ryan is so close to making it its not funny. Like Danny a terrific VFL player but hasn't made a senior spot his own. Hard runner but his decision making and ball handling suspect. Fans of Ryan will remember his great game vs Ess a few years ago or his admirable performance vs saints and adelaide late in season 08. He is on the cusp of being delisted this year unless he finds that formline. Let's hope he does. Nothing wrong with being a darn good VFL player either.
Shannon Cox - always been a fan of shannon but if you are going to be seen as laconic you need to be very good. I wonder whether HB is the right spot for him. Often think Wing or fwd flank. Get him in front of the footy and he could be a dangerous match up. Certainly goes ok 1:1 at times and skills pretty good as well. The decision making behind the ball is a worry at times. Typically really good players go extremely well when behind the ball and that's the worry with Cox. He just may not be as good as he 'promises' to be. Then again maybe its just confidence as he was very good against Port and pretty good vs Melb. Needs to find that form vs the best sides.....hope so.
Leon Davis - this guy has been one of the few improvers on our list in the last 2 years. Become a midfielder and has elite skill levels and pace. The knock on Leon is that he probably doesn't have the endurance of other elite mids and he can go missing early in big games. The fact he doesn't win his own ball is a little worrying but more a reflection that's a gap in our 22. If he had the Holland, Freeborn, Burns, Licca types that would have help him. In saying that he is developing his game and suspect there is even more upside.
Chris Dawes - you can see they are developing this bloke into a FF type. First thing to remember is that Dawes is young and he needs a few years to develop. With anthony rocca going and JA able to play a couple of roles there is a definite spot for Dawes. From all reports a great club man and someone who the club has high hopes for when Rocca goes at year end. Challenge is going to be where does he fit. The post Rocca and Presti era should see a spine of Brown, Reid, Cloke, Anthony with a Dawes in there somewhere. Beauty is Anthony could play a few different roles!
Brad Dick - little beauty this kid. I do a mock every year and the year Dick went I was pretty excited. His skills at junior level were sublime. He carried that into his first year but ever since injury his skills have been average at best but improving. Certainly got pace, talent, an ability to finish, compete 1:1, defensive element and x factor so he is a keeper for sure. I think the thing is he needs game time poured into him as he is someone that just looks like he needs to see game time before he explodes. Clearly a great passion for playing and loves the club so here is to hoping.
Alan Didak - another whose body seems to let him down for a few games every year. In saying that he is an elite fwd and a useful midfielder. Problem is he is another whose not a ball winning mid and you only need so many outside types. I think he is better left fwd for the bulk of game time and sparinglyrotated with Davis thru the middle.
Josh Fraser - probably just coming into his prime and still nobody is sure just exactly what role this guy should play. In our top 5 most influential as when he is fit he is hard to match up and he tends to push fwd more. Hasn't kicked a lot of multiple goals lately and suspect that's a reflection of fitness / confidence. I would like to see us play a second ruck (recruit one if need be) who is a strong body type. Wood and Keefe similar styles to Fraser and I think you need a blend. Would give Fraser some respite in the fwd line. Clearly likes loads of game time but body can't sustain it unfortunately.
Tyson Goldsack - Gippy boy and one I saw a bit of at TAC level. Taken as a 19yo and burst onto the scene. Athletic, usually courageous and an attacking flair when confidence is up. Unfortunately the confidence appears down. Would persist with him but given we have Maxwell and OBrien as similar types then suspect not room for 3 understudies in Goldy, Cox and Reed. One will go and question is who. Future might be dependant on who coach is. Hate to see him go. Some say play him on a wing but I aint so sure. Handy back up though and versatile.
Ben Johnson - He was at the cross roads last year and frankly I hoped at the time he was the one to be traded and not Rhyce. Still his season started ok before he got injured.... again. Important player when fit as he breaks lines and runs hard. Skills still lacking though and body not coping with injuries well. Another whose fate will be largely dependant on whose coaching.
Tarkyn Lockyer - have loved this bloke ever since he arrived. Developed well and can play a number of roles. Unfortunately not quite in the elite class which has hurt us at times when we have had injuries and needed him to step up. Best when he runs hard and is tackling. I think he is the best tackler at the club.
Brent MacAffer - another local lad who I have watched plenty of over years. Brent would have set himself a goal to play senior footy this year and he has done that. Didn't let himself down in any outing and club will be keen for him to continue to develop at VFL. His skill, fwd pressure and 1:1 ability is terrific so definately will be retained I would think but maybe in a battle with Rusling.
John McCarthy - as some of you know I do a mock draft each year and was pretty surprised we picked this bloke. At the start of his last TAC year he was highly regarded but his body let him down and hence only played a couple of games. Recruited as a Burns replacement he promised enough to justify the pick but you hope his body holds up over the next few years. To me wing seems his best role and predominantly as a ball winner. To do that the body needs to be strong. He reminds of a young Gavin Brown....big shoes but he is good enough (and Mick seems to agree)........if the body holds up.
Paul Medhurst - How far has this bloke come! Fair dinkum he would be in the top 5 players at collingwood along with Swan, Pendles, Davis and Fraser. He is quick with ball and highly skilled. Tends to want to play on in fwd line when not in range and I reckon that's great. Two more of him please.
Nick Maxwell - I will be honest here and know I will get slammed for this but am yet to be convinced this bloke is a captain although last couple of games have been much better. He can make a lot of errors, particularly early in games and his skills can be horrendous. Also has a habit of getting reported which isn't what you want from your Capt. In saying that he gives his all and we are better off for him. I liked it last year when he went into mids - plays strong and his errors don't hurt as much there. Also adept at sneaking fwd! To be fair, its a big step up and he needs time before being judged.
Shane OBree - this bloke could win a medal at the winter Olympics as a downill skier. Some will think that's unkind but few would say unfair. Personally I have come to terms with the fact this bloke is not someone who will ever chnage the course of a game for us. Granted he played well last week but ithats the best game I can remember. Often leads the tackle count yet I can't recollect the last time he took someone down in a tackle 1:1. What keeps him being picked is his skills are very good, he is a good average player and the coach loves him because he plays to the plan which are all terrific. Would just love to see him hit the elite class.
Harry OBrien - look for many of us the loss of your father is unimaginable. I suspect footy aint as important as it was and that's understandable. Whether that's the reason for his form having tapered early in season I don't know but what I do know is he is back to his best. Clearly a must have in the 22 as provides great flexibility.
Scott Pendlebury - one of the few who has improved over last 12 months. Superb at everything (usually), and starting to win own ball, foot skills can at times let him down when going into F50 and his kick penetration. Future captain though. He will only get better and better.
Simon Prestigiacomo - Outstanding FB who hopefully plays another 2 years. Whose matthew scarlett??....this blokes the 09 All Australian FB.
Ben Reid - taken as a bottom ager he is effectively a year behind nathan brown. Had a difficult run with injuries after some promising games early. Been developed more recently as a CHB for the post Presti era and seems to be coming on well. Played well their in NAB cup but struggled at CHF in seniors - not surprising given our form at the time, fact je is better suited to CHB and game plan. All tall kids need extra time but will be a good defender in time. Brown at FB and Reid at CHB is the back spine for us in years to come.
Anthony Rocca - been terrific hasn't he. Time is up though and modern game passed him. Opposition run off and go thru his man. Also injury prone and cannot be relied on for 26 games so ultimately this should be his last season. Go punting Pebbles and earn yourself some retirement money. Anthony is the go fwd.
Luke Rounds - very much a development year. Certainly a role for him going fwd and is very talented. Role for him would initially be HBF or wing then moving into mids. Let's not judge him until end 2010 and only then as a first year recruit IMO. Ultimately the Rhyce Shaw pick so if he continues his form it will become a discussion point.
Sean Rusling - club took a massive gamble in taking him so early years ago and it must frustrate that it appeared a terrific decision. Blessed with all attributes you want in a modern footy player except for a body that's strong enough to withstand todays game. Someone who they must persist with and could be a real x factor when he can consistently get out there. In saying that he is one of the few that's expendable for a trade such as a Seaby.
Heath Shaw - one of our most important players. Confidence to back himself as 3rd man up at the contest as well as to run off and create an option. Can kick goals from HB as well and its good to see him getting his touch and confidence back. Another that if we won 16 games in a year it most likely will have meant he has had a stellar year.
Steele Sidebottom - only played a handful of games but dominated VFL before going into seniors. Clearly a ball magnet and skills look good. Offers second and third efforts and looks a competitor. Best left in the side and fast tracked. Not good news for OBree!
Danny Stanley - mixed feelings about Danny but whichever way you look at it he really hasn't taken his chances. In the pro Danny camp (incl me) there is a feeling he has never been given a 4-5 game stretch to see if he can step up. Rather he seems to come in when team is decimated and he is up against it. His VFL form has been outstanding and he fits the mould of what we have lacked since Burns departure. In saying all the alternate camp would argue he has been on the 3 yrs by seasons end and has been given opportunity and not cemented a spot. They would also argue Beams and Sidebottom have gone past him and both have the ball winning capabilty we lack.
Dane Swan - terrific midfielder who has confidence to go fwd and kick goals. Problem is his kicking. Oddly field kicking is pretty good its his goal kicking that's ordinary. Fix that and he is away to the next level. I suspect its more to do with the game plan but he collects a lot of touches in positions which aren't all that damaging. In saying that he centre clearance work is getting really good. Notwithstanding, if we have a year where we win 15-16 games watch out for this guy as a Brownlow chance.
Dale Thomas - this bloke is at a fairly critical point in his career. Taken #2 behind murphy and before Pendles and Ellis you would think all have probably gone past him. To be fair I think his game is based around flair and pace - they are not the cornerstones of the current coaches game plan. At an Essendon he may just win their B&F. Certainly a player you wouldn't want to lose but it would be nice to see him dominate a game, get more than 20 touches or put in a 4 qtr effort. Not even sure that its for lack of trying so I often wonder is the tank big enough to sustain 4 qtrs?
Alan Toovey - don't think I have ever seen a bloke bust his ass on a footy field as much as this bloke. Highly decorated junior who has dominated VFL level but struggled a little at senior level. Skills are really the only thing that let's him down. Intensity, decision making, pace are all there but the modern game calls for a Guerra, Birchall, Enright, Gram, Scotland who have a penetrating and / or accurate leg on them. Hope he makes it.
Sharrod Wellingham - tends to divide supporters but I am a fan. He needs to be left on wing and persisted with. Good skills but composure under pressure a query. Will come with game time. We look better with him in as he wants to move ball quickly and looks for the corridor. A new coach with a more attacking game style will assist him.
Cameron Wood - when a club gives up their first pick the club, fan expectations are significant. Major slap that selection comm didn't think they had a back up ruck worthy. Seems to have a number of attributes but putting them together and consistency a huge issue. Club will persist for another year......they have to!
Rookie Players
Jarred Blair - if the season falls over for us I would love to see this bloke along with Francis get a run. He would have to be the one they look to elevate. He is a ball winner and whilst he lacks a penetrating kick its that ball winning ability that defines him as well as his decision making. There is a spot there for that type of player and whilst height is a concern I don't think club would have recruited him if they couldn't get past that. Its also worth noting he has the confidence to push fwd. Sam Mitchell is smallish but he wins hard ball, makes goo decisions and delivers well. Blair is that type and should model himself on Mitchell.
Kevin Dyas - not sure where Kevins at. In his position consistency and game time are a must. He has had injuries the whole way thru which have not helped. Certainly has got some attributes such as pace and hardness but just seems to be to many in front of him. Would love to see us persist but I think it will come down to the wire. In saying that formline has been reasonable since back.
Lachlan Keefe - clear they are fast tracking him. With Wood in seniors he is the preferred ruck at VFL level. Coming along well. Terrificly athletic and won't be until end of next year we should judge him. From what I hear around the club they are pretty excited but a long way to go.
Tristan Francis - one player I am watching closely. He is in a battle with Cook, Stanley and Blair for that midfield inside type. Played well at VFL level when fit and would be a chance to see some action late in year depending on injuries, seniors performance and of course his form. With Cook and Stanley not really having taken their chances he or Blair could step thru.
Scott Reed - another development player who won't be judged until next year.
Seen a lot of this kid and certainly has ability. I think the issue for his is he started a HBF and was moved into middle towards end of junior days. I don't think he is a mid and I think that's stunted the development. In saying that, I form the view not knowing anywhere near as much as they do. He has moved back to HB at VFL level so that's been good and understand he has continually improved. Very composed player who can marshall the troops and make good decisions. Just think he will take some time.
Jamie Bennell - little livewire who is being tried in a number of spots. Think the hope is he will be able to start back and give us some run and creativity. Long way to go for him and really the hope is for him to be a solid VFL contributor I suspect at this stage.
Top 5 for Copeland
1 Davis
2 Swan
3 Pendlebury
4 Prestigiacomo
5 Lockyer
Special mention to Fraser who I reckon has grabbed a few votes to date
List Managment
The issue this year around list management which is unique is Gold Coast. Contracting players out of their grasps. Player managers know it and hence clubs will have to pay up.
This years draft has a few key position players available early and then plenty of v good mids. Hine will want 4 selections and suspect 2 rookies might be elevated (Blair and Keefe)
That means maybe 6 go and at this stage who should be worried about sitting in coaches office at year end are;
Cook - Beams and Sidebottom are past him. This years draft is choc full of quality mids meaning Ryan needs something in the second half. He is capable though and you wouldn't be upset if he was retained.
Bryan - I think Keefe will be elevated next year and that means one has to go. Hope they keep him for VFL.
Stanley - I think its ultimately the same as Cook. To many have gone past him because he hasn't taken is chance. I wish it were different as I think he can make it but I don't think we have room.
Rocca - Game is past him. The coach loves him but its the right time for him to retire. He has been great and should be given a great send off.
Johnson - Simple case of play the kids. Been very good over the journey but injuries have caught him and he is probably on 250k plus. We need some room in salary cap and he is one who could go.
Corrie - I think we need his type on list but a better version. Unlike others I can see why we got him and see some great attributes but sometimes the effort at the footy lacks and if 6 is the number he becomes it.
If it were 5 I would choose between retaining Johnson or Corrie and it would simply be an issue of salary cap.
Others in the mix:
Goldsack - flexibility keeps him in
Rusling - if he can get fit he is a best 22 player
Predicted Finish
5th - we still havent beaten anyone and until we do refuse to call a top 4.
Draft Targets
I know they say best available but I think they do look at needs. With that in mind I think everyone will have a different view on this but for our 4 selections I would be wanting a player for a KP, Ruck and 2 mids. If a player like Panos was available around the first selection (say 13) he would be tempting and then look for some mids later. Mids - well there would be soe terrific ones even at say 13 and you are looking at a heap of different possibilities. Not many great rucks so maybe go for a rookie ruck.
6 and 5 aint bad.....it aint a lock on top 4 though either. Problem I have is we haven't beaten anyone yet. Cats, Blues, Saints, Hawks and Bullies are still out there......
Coach
Ultimately I think the coaching issue is pretty straight forward. Mick has had the side for 10 yrs and we haven't won a premiership. Whilst we have won the last 3 games we still really haven't beaten any of the good sides. There have been injuries but every side has them so cannot make excuses.
Granted he has done a good job but one can't argue its been outstanding. The win rate is about 50% and its unprecedented that a coach whose had 10 yrs, 50% win rate and no premierships would get an extension.
At a more myopic level there have been arguably 2 rebuilds and we are in the midst of a third. The side lacks skill vs the elite teams and he needs to accept that given he instructs the recruiters he has to accept some ownership. The line 'I don't have the cattle' wears thin after 10 years.
Am really perplexed about his game plan as well against the better sides. . Our best footy was vs North, second half of Port and more recently Melb. In those games we showed that when running and using corridor we could score....and score heavily. Dick, Didak, Medhurst, Anthony are all sensational 1:1. In contrast, our worst footy is just plain terrible and frankly at times I have lost interest as I think its a terrible brand of footy that the better sides pick off. The good sides sweat on our chipping and boundary style and having caused it pump it into the corridor. Ultimately our game plan needs to be able to beat the Cats, Saints,Carlton and the Hawks - at this stage seen no evidence it can.
In short, a top 4 finish and he is a chance for an extension and a GF berth makes him a 'shoe in' I suspect.
The coaching sub committee have a massive task as they have essentially committed to an answer before seasons end........odd!
My tip is that Bucks will be there next year. If only because there is no upside in having him coach elsewhere.
Senior Players
John Anthony - when you think of players who have improved in last 12 months on our list its pretty thin. This bloke has improved in spades. So much so at start of year I was still thinking he goes back post Presti but not now. Competitive, fast lead, strong hands and great kick......perfect for FF in modern game. Get the ball in quick to a 1:1 and he will go well. Club would do well to get a FF of yesteryear who played a similar game style to fast track him. Couldn't do worse than BT. Before the knee he was pretty agile, post the knee use the bulk beautifully.
Jaxson Barham - suspect he set himself a goal to play AFL this year and that's been achieved so he and club would be rapt. Also showed a bit. Pace, aggression and intensity all very good. Skills improved over his time in seniors but biggest knock is that he is to light. Time in the gym and he could become a Wojinski type which would be sensational.
Dayne Beams - lovely player. He will be a gem. You can just see his a young Mr Burns in the making - possibly even a little better at the same age. Good motor, burst of speed, skilled, makes good decisions, kicks a goal and tough. Class above VFL level already. Love him.
Jarrad Blight - highly regarded junior who I thought was a top 25 pick so rapt we got him where we did. He is an attacking HBF type who will develop along similar veins to Heath Shaw. Good courage, backs himself and natural inclination will be to attack from HB or even the wing where he has spent a lot of his junior days. Skills are good as well.
Leigh Brown - I was probably 50:50 on recruiting this bloke but could see the logic. We didn't know how Presti would go and the thinking was back up. To be fair to him he has been thrown into roles up and down the spine and hasn't had a chance to settle. Difference between best and worst a problem which is frustrating bc best is pretty good. Big blokes mature late so he may yet find that level of consistency. Unfortunately he aint up to being a part of best 22 and its hard to see what role he fills when Clokes back. Particularly if Wood stays in. Clearly the ruck issue is a worry so he helps there but with Reid being trained up down back then I suspect that's the answer post Presti. He shows glimpses but like Bryan - if the intensity is off he is shot.
Nathan Brown - a real find and a player who offers a fair bit of upside. Good in the air, aggressive, beaut kick and increasingly good composure. I think the only chink to work out is his penchant for wanting to shirtfront/bump as opposed to tackle. The safer option is the tackle because if you miss it looks horrible and they can hurt you on the scoreboard. FB is probably the right spot once Presti is gone because the turning circle aint great - he is a Ben Rutten type. Reid at CHB is appealing and a nice combo for future years.
Chris Bryan - there are blokes like Toovey who don't have a heap of talent but you can never question their preparedness to give their all every game. Bryan on the hand is certainly talented but the intensity level varies significantly game to game. A real shame because their is a spot for him but it appears the club have decided to play him primarily as a fwd - if he excels at that he may get another year - if not suspect he is gone.
Marty Clarke - another who I was hoping would go the next step and hasn't although recent form improving. Got to remember he is still a pup to the game. Always gives his all and to be fair is often caught when already in heavy traffic. His role is also being tinkered with insomuch as has been pushed to more mid role and that's a massive change for him as he hasn't played there before. Am ok with that as the motor is good and the skills good as well. Will take time but the transition is proving a learning curve. When he masters it will be terrific.
Anthony Corrie - wasn't unhappy when he was recruited. Offered pace and goal kicking. First game vs WCE was promising and the game vs North was sensational. The last 2 senior games he had have been ave to poor so will be interesting to see what happens. Dick is in front of him and definately should stay that way. You can see why a coach would want him as every team needs a couple of quick, line breaking and silky types. Jury is out and he has 14 games to go otherwise I suspect he is gone.
Ryan Cook - Ryan is so close to making it its not funny. Like Danny a terrific VFL player but hasn't made a senior spot his own. Hard runner but his decision making and ball handling suspect. Fans of Ryan will remember his great game vs Ess a few years ago or his admirable performance vs saints and adelaide late in season 08. He is on the cusp of being delisted this year unless he finds that formline. Let's hope he does. Nothing wrong with being a darn good VFL player either.
Shannon Cox - always been a fan of shannon but if you are going to be seen as laconic you need to be very good. I wonder whether HB is the right spot for him. Often think Wing or fwd flank. Get him in front of the footy and he could be a dangerous match up. Certainly goes ok 1:1 at times and skills pretty good as well. The decision making behind the ball is a worry at times. Typically really good players go extremely well when behind the ball and that's the worry with Cox. He just may not be as good as he 'promises' to be. Then again maybe its just confidence as he was very good against Port and pretty good vs Melb. Needs to find that form vs the best sides.....hope so.
Leon Davis - this guy has been one of the few improvers on our list in the last 2 years. Become a midfielder and has elite skill levels and pace. The knock on Leon is that he probably doesn't have the endurance of other elite mids and he can go missing early in big games. The fact he doesn't win his own ball is a little worrying but more a reflection that's a gap in our 22. If he had the Holland, Freeborn, Burns, Licca types that would have help him. In saying that he is developing his game and suspect there is even more upside.
Chris Dawes - you can see they are developing this bloke into a FF type. First thing to remember is that Dawes is young and he needs a few years to develop. With anthony rocca going and JA able to play a couple of roles there is a definite spot for Dawes. From all reports a great club man and someone who the club has high hopes for when Rocca goes at year end. Challenge is going to be where does he fit. The post Rocca and Presti era should see a spine of Brown, Reid, Cloke, Anthony with a Dawes in there somewhere. Beauty is Anthony could play a few different roles!
Brad Dick - little beauty this kid. I do a mock every year and the year Dick went I was pretty excited. His skills at junior level were sublime. He carried that into his first year but ever since injury his skills have been average at best but improving. Certainly got pace, talent, an ability to finish, compete 1:1, defensive element and x factor so he is a keeper for sure. I think the thing is he needs game time poured into him as he is someone that just looks like he needs to see game time before he explodes. Clearly a great passion for playing and loves the club so here is to hoping.
Alan Didak - another whose body seems to let him down for a few games every year. In saying that he is an elite fwd and a useful midfielder. Problem is he is another whose not a ball winning mid and you only need so many outside types. I think he is better left fwd for the bulk of game time and sparinglyrotated with Davis thru the middle.
Josh Fraser - probably just coming into his prime and still nobody is sure just exactly what role this guy should play. In our top 5 most influential as when he is fit he is hard to match up and he tends to push fwd more. Hasn't kicked a lot of multiple goals lately and suspect that's a reflection of fitness / confidence. I would like to see us play a second ruck (recruit one if need be) who is a strong body type. Wood and Keefe similar styles to Fraser and I think you need a blend. Would give Fraser some respite in the fwd line. Clearly likes loads of game time but body can't sustain it unfortunately.
Tyson Goldsack - Gippy boy and one I saw a bit of at TAC level. Taken as a 19yo and burst onto the scene. Athletic, usually courageous and an attacking flair when confidence is up. Unfortunately the confidence appears down. Would persist with him but given we have Maxwell and OBrien as similar types then suspect not room for 3 understudies in Goldy, Cox and Reed. One will go and question is who. Future might be dependant on who coach is. Hate to see him go. Some say play him on a wing but I aint so sure. Handy back up though and versatile.
Ben Johnson - He was at the cross roads last year and frankly I hoped at the time he was the one to be traded and not Rhyce. Still his season started ok before he got injured.... again. Important player when fit as he breaks lines and runs hard. Skills still lacking though and body not coping with injuries well. Another whose fate will be largely dependant on whose coaching.
Tarkyn Lockyer - have loved this bloke ever since he arrived. Developed well and can play a number of roles. Unfortunately not quite in the elite class which has hurt us at times when we have had injuries and needed him to step up. Best when he runs hard and is tackling. I think he is the best tackler at the club.
Brent MacAffer - another local lad who I have watched plenty of over years. Brent would have set himself a goal to play senior footy this year and he has done that. Didn't let himself down in any outing and club will be keen for him to continue to develop at VFL. His skill, fwd pressure and 1:1 ability is terrific so definately will be retained I would think but maybe in a battle with Rusling.
John McCarthy - as some of you know I do a mock draft each year and was pretty surprised we picked this bloke. At the start of his last TAC year he was highly regarded but his body let him down and hence only played a couple of games. Recruited as a Burns replacement he promised enough to justify the pick but you hope his body holds up over the next few years. To me wing seems his best role and predominantly as a ball winner. To do that the body needs to be strong. He reminds of a young Gavin Brown....big shoes but he is good enough (and Mick seems to agree)........if the body holds up.
Paul Medhurst - How far has this bloke come! Fair dinkum he would be in the top 5 players at collingwood along with Swan, Pendles, Davis and Fraser. He is quick with ball and highly skilled. Tends to want to play on in fwd line when not in range and I reckon that's great. Two more of him please.
Nick Maxwell - I will be honest here and know I will get slammed for this but am yet to be convinced this bloke is a captain although last couple of games have been much better. He can make a lot of errors, particularly early in games and his skills can be horrendous. Also has a habit of getting reported which isn't what you want from your Capt. In saying that he gives his all and we are better off for him. I liked it last year when he went into mids - plays strong and his errors don't hurt as much there. Also adept at sneaking fwd! To be fair, its a big step up and he needs time before being judged.
Shane OBree - this bloke could win a medal at the winter Olympics as a downill skier. Some will think that's unkind but few would say unfair. Personally I have come to terms with the fact this bloke is not someone who will ever chnage the course of a game for us. Granted he played well last week but ithats the best game I can remember. Often leads the tackle count yet I can't recollect the last time he took someone down in a tackle 1:1. What keeps him being picked is his skills are very good, he is a good average player and the coach loves him because he plays to the plan which are all terrific. Would just love to see him hit the elite class.
Harry OBrien - look for many of us the loss of your father is unimaginable. I suspect footy aint as important as it was and that's understandable. Whether that's the reason for his form having tapered early in season I don't know but what I do know is he is back to his best. Clearly a must have in the 22 as provides great flexibility.
Scott Pendlebury - one of the few who has improved over last 12 months. Superb at everything (usually), and starting to win own ball, foot skills can at times let him down when going into F50 and his kick penetration. Future captain though. He will only get better and better.
Simon Prestigiacomo - Outstanding FB who hopefully plays another 2 years. Whose matthew scarlett??....this blokes the 09 All Australian FB.
Ben Reid - taken as a bottom ager he is effectively a year behind nathan brown. Had a difficult run with injuries after some promising games early. Been developed more recently as a CHB for the post Presti era and seems to be coming on well. Played well their in NAB cup but struggled at CHF in seniors - not surprising given our form at the time, fact je is better suited to CHB and game plan. All tall kids need extra time but will be a good defender in time. Brown at FB and Reid at CHB is the back spine for us in years to come.
Anthony Rocca - been terrific hasn't he. Time is up though and modern game passed him. Opposition run off and go thru his man. Also injury prone and cannot be relied on for 26 games so ultimately this should be his last season. Go punting Pebbles and earn yourself some retirement money. Anthony is the go fwd.
Luke Rounds - very much a development year. Certainly a role for him going fwd and is very talented. Role for him would initially be HBF or wing then moving into mids. Let's not judge him until end 2010 and only then as a first year recruit IMO. Ultimately the Rhyce Shaw pick so if he continues his form it will become a discussion point.
Sean Rusling - club took a massive gamble in taking him so early years ago and it must frustrate that it appeared a terrific decision. Blessed with all attributes you want in a modern footy player except for a body that's strong enough to withstand todays game. Someone who they must persist with and could be a real x factor when he can consistently get out there. In saying that he is one of the few that's expendable for a trade such as a Seaby.
Heath Shaw - one of our most important players. Confidence to back himself as 3rd man up at the contest as well as to run off and create an option. Can kick goals from HB as well and its good to see him getting his touch and confidence back. Another that if we won 16 games in a year it most likely will have meant he has had a stellar year.
Steele Sidebottom - only played a handful of games but dominated VFL before going into seniors. Clearly a ball magnet and skills look good. Offers second and third efforts and looks a competitor. Best left in the side and fast tracked. Not good news for OBree!
Danny Stanley - mixed feelings about Danny but whichever way you look at it he really hasn't taken his chances. In the pro Danny camp (incl me) there is a feeling he has never been given a 4-5 game stretch to see if he can step up. Rather he seems to come in when team is decimated and he is up against it. His VFL form has been outstanding and he fits the mould of what we have lacked since Burns departure. In saying all the alternate camp would argue he has been on the 3 yrs by seasons end and has been given opportunity and not cemented a spot. They would also argue Beams and Sidebottom have gone past him and both have the ball winning capabilty we lack.
Dane Swan - terrific midfielder who has confidence to go fwd and kick goals. Problem is his kicking. Oddly field kicking is pretty good its his goal kicking that's ordinary. Fix that and he is away to the next level. I suspect its more to do with the game plan but he collects a lot of touches in positions which aren't all that damaging. In saying that he centre clearance work is getting really good. Notwithstanding, if we have a year where we win 15-16 games watch out for this guy as a Brownlow chance.
Dale Thomas - this bloke is at a fairly critical point in his career. Taken #2 behind murphy and before Pendles and Ellis you would think all have probably gone past him. To be fair I think his game is based around flair and pace - they are not the cornerstones of the current coaches game plan. At an Essendon he may just win their B&F. Certainly a player you wouldn't want to lose but it would be nice to see him dominate a game, get more than 20 touches or put in a 4 qtr effort. Not even sure that its for lack of trying so I often wonder is the tank big enough to sustain 4 qtrs?
Alan Toovey - don't think I have ever seen a bloke bust his ass on a footy field as much as this bloke. Highly decorated junior who has dominated VFL level but struggled a little at senior level. Skills are really the only thing that let's him down. Intensity, decision making, pace are all there but the modern game calls for a Guerra, Birchall, Enright, Gram, Scotland who have a penetrating and / or accurate leg on them. Hope he makes it.
Sharrod Wellingham - tends to divide supporters but I am a fan. He needs to be left on wing and persisted with. Good skills but composure under pressure a query. Will come with game time. We look better with him in as he wants to move ball quickly and looks for the corridor. A new coach with a more attacking game style will assist him.
Cameron Wood - when a club gives up their first pick the club, fan expectations are significant. Major slap that selection comm didn't think they had a back up ruck worthy. Seems to have a number of attributes but putting them together and consistency a huge issue. Club will persist for another year......they have to!
Rookie Players
Jarred Blair - if the season falls over for us I would love to see this bloke along with Francis get a run. He would have to be the one they look to elevate. He is a ball winner and whilst he lacks a penetrating kick its that ball winning ability that defines him as well as his decision making. There is a spot there for that type of player and whilst height is a concern I don't think club would have recruited him if they couldn't get past that. Its also worth noting he has the confidence to push fwd. Sam Mitchell is smallish but he wins hard ball, makes goo decisions and delivers well. Blair is that type and should model himself on Mitchell.
Kevin Dyas - not sure where Kevins at. In his position consistency and game time are a must. He has had injuries the whole way thru which have not helped. Certainly has got some attributes such as pace and hardness but just seems to be to many in front of him. Would love to see us persist but I think it will come down to the wire. In saying that formline has been reasonable since back.
Lachlan Keefe - clear they are fast tracking him. With Wood in seniors he is the preferred ruck at VFL level. Coming along well. Terrificly athletic and won't be until end of next year we should judge him. From what I hear around the club they are pretty excited but a long way to go.
Tristan Francis - one player I am watching closely. He is in a battle with Cook, Stanley and Blair for that midfield inside type. Played well at VFL level when fit and would be a chance to see some action late in year depending on injuries, seniors performance and of course his form. With Cook and Stanley not really having taken their chances he or Blair could step thru.
Scott Reed - another development player who won't be judged until next year.
Seen a lot of this kid and certainly has ability. I think the issue for his is he started a HBF and was moved into middle towards end of junior days. I don't think he is a mid and I think that's stunted the development. In saying that, I form the view not knowing anywhere near as much as they do. He has moved back to HB at VFL level so that's been good and understand he has continually improved. Very composed player who can marshall the troops and make good decisions. Just think he will take some time.
Jamie Bennell - little livewire who is being tried in a number of spots. Think the hope is he will be able to start back and give us some run and creativity. Long way to go for him and really the hope is for him to be a solid VFL contributor I suspect at this stage.
Top 5 for Copeland
1 Davis
2 Swan
3 Pendlebury
4 Prestigiacomo
5 Lockyer
Special mention to Fraser who I reckon has grabbed a few votes to date
List Managment
The issue this year around list management which is unique is Gold Coast. Contracting players out of their grasps. Player managers know it and hence clubs will have to pay up.
This years draft has a few key position players available early and then plenty of v good mids. Hine will want 4 selections and suspect 2 rookies might be elevated (Blair and Keefe)
That means maybe 6 go and at this stage who should be worried about sitting in coaches office at year end are;
Cook - Beams and Sidebottom are past him. This years draft is choc full of quality mids meaning Ryan needs something in the second half. He is capable though and you wouldn't be upset if he was retained.
Bryan - I think Keefe will be elevated next year and that means one has to go. Hope they keep him for VFL.
Stanley - I think its ultimately the same as Cook. To many have gone past him because he hasn't taken is chance. I wish it were different as I think he can make it but I don't think we have room.
Rocca - Game is past him. The coach loves him but its the right time for him to retire. He has been great and should be given a great send off.
Johnson - Simple case of play the kids. Been very good over the journey but injuries have caught him and he is probably on 250k plus. We need some room in salary cap and he is one who could go.
Corrie - I think we need his type on list but a better version. Unlike others I can see why we got him and see some great attributes but sometimes the effort at the footy lacks and if 6 is the number he becomes it.
If it were 5 I would choose between retaining Johnson or Corrie and it would simply be an issue of salary cap.
Others in the mix:
Goldsack - flexibility keeps him in
Rusling - if he can get fit he is a best 22 player
Predicted Finish
5th - we still havent beaten anyone and until we do refuse to call a top 4.
Draft Targets
I know they say best available but I think they do look at needs. With that in mind I think everyone will have a different view on this but for our 4 selections I would be wanting a player for a KP, Ruck and 2 mids. If a player like Panos was available around the first selection (say 13) he would be tempting and then look for some mids later. Mids - well there would be soe terrific ones even at say 13 and you are looking at a heap of different possibilities. Not many great rucks so maybe go for a rookie ruck.
