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Analysis Stats!

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Pdub said:
The arrows mean very little, it's only the movement this week, so it basically means your last game was better or worse than the game you played 41 games ago that just dropped off the list of your last 40 games and was replaced by last week's game. But even less than that because it only changes if the players position in the order changes. Andy Otten has an up arrow this week, that's how meaningless it is.
Click to expand...
did you look at his graph trajectory? who said anything about an arrow
 
Danoz said:
That appears to only have three games in 2016 included. He was awarded around 20 points in total over the last two weeks, which is higher than what appears to be his current average.
Click to expand...

the AFL and Accuracy have never been partners in crime...
 
VSTone said:
DMac 34 pressure acts against the hawks... tells me the hawks played through him whenever they could...
pressure acts stat continues to look very dubious in my opinion...


http://www.afl.com.au/stats/player-ratings/overall-standings#club/CD_T10
interesting to see the trajectory of DMac's graph going south (click on his name)
pretty much everyone else bar VB & DMac going up...
Click to expand...

actually have a look at Cheney and B Smith graphs too - on the slide...
don't worry though, everything is alright
 

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Danoz said:
Scroll down.
Click to expand...

The official AFL ladder may show you where your side sits, but we've decided to delve a little deeper with our weekly AFL Power Rankings.

Of course wins and losses are important, but other elements are also at play in trying to work out how clubs are really travelling.

Each week, we'll assess every team's form, upcoming draws, health, X-factor, attack and defence to determine a final ranking.

Legend

Form: The higher the number, the better a team's recent form.

Draw: The higher the number, the easier a team's upcoming draw.

Fitness: Determined by the number and quality of fit players available. A list in "good" shape is ranked around a 7; a list missing three or four best-22 players might be considered a 3 or 4.

X-Factor: The number and quality of genuine match-winning players.

Attack: Potency of the team's offence.

Defence: Ability of the team to prevent the opposition from scoring
Click to expand...

It doesn't really explain how they come up with a number for each category though.
 
Some stats showing who has played who this season ... using CURRENT ladder position:

round5_1.png

Also who has played teams in the top 4 / top 8:

round5_3.png

Things I notice:
  • None of the current top 4 teams have played each other yet
  • North / Bulldogs have played no-one in the scheme of things (ranked 15/17 hardest so far) - their tests are yet to come
  • Geelong have played easy teams but have a very cushy draw overall - also play the tougher teams at home on the way in
  • Hawks have done well to sneak the wins they have - sets up their season
  • Gold Coast have had the easiest start in the comp
  • West Coast have had it very tough away, very easy at home
  • Adelaide have had the second toughest opponents so far, but get the 5th easiest run home
  • Port are sitting about right
  • Collingwood's position might get worse (played 1 team in the top 8, 16th easiest so far)
  • St Kilda have had a tough opening to the season and should go up the ladder from here
  • Richmond are in a similar amount of trouble as Collingwood (played 1 team in the top 8, 14th easiest so far)
  • Carlton and Brisbane have had a tougher start than I thought. Brisbane have played 3 of the top 4 in the first 5 rounds!
  • Freo have no easy stuff in sight, with the 2nd toughest draw for the year and currently no wins !!
Really need to wait until round 10 for these things to become clearer, I still don't really know where the clubs are ranked against each other. So much can change ladder position wise after even just one round.
 
Sanders said:
Our defence is not leaking!

Our midfield is leaking I50's. Not the same thing
Click to expand...


You are correct. Our team defence needs to improve.

This chart is good but it is a small sample size, only 5 rounds in, it will be more accurate after the halfway point of the season.
Sydney look fantastic, they started the year off smashing a horrible Collingwood then Carlton.
 
OutofTownCrow said:
Some stats showing who has played who this season ... using CURRENT ladder position:

View attachment 240317

Also who has played teams in the top 4 / top 8:

View attachment 240338

Things I notice:
  • None of the current top 4 teams have played each other yet
  • North / Bulldogs have played no-one in the scheme of things (ranked 15/17 hardest so far) - their tests are yet to come
  • Geelong have played easy teams but have a very cushy draw overall - also play the tougher teams at home on the way in
  • Hawks have done well to sneak the wins they have - sets up their season
  • Gold Coast have had the easiest start in the comp
  • West Coast have had it very tough away, very easy at home
  • Adelaide have had the second toughest opponents so far, but get the 5th easiest run home
  • Port are sitting about right
  • Collingwood's position might get worse (played 1 team in the top 8, 16th easiest so far)
  • St Kilda have had a tough opening to the season and should go up the ladder from here
  • Richmond are in a similar amount of trouble as Collingwood (played 1 team in the top 8, 14th easiest so far)
  • Carlton and Brisbane have had a tougher start than I thought. Brisbane have played 3 of the top 4 in the first 5 rounds!
  • Freo have no easy stuff in sight, with the 2nd toughest draw for the year and currently no wins !!
Really need to wait until round 10 for these things to become clearer, I still don't really know where the clubs are ranked against each other. So much can change ladder position wise after even just one round.
Click to expand...
How many wins do you think we can get ? More than 14? Haven't had a decent look
 
OutofTownCrow said:
The games coming up against Geelong and Western Bulldogs loom large. We win those two and we can push for a top 4 with our run home.
Click to expand...
2 from our next 3 will be ok. 5-3 after that first 8 is a very good result and sets us up for top 4.

We won't play Hawks, SYD or WB again. 5 of our last 7 at home with the only games I would pencil in as losses being WCE away and Cats away.

Of course they are still winnable games but history suggests they are very tough.
 

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This 100 points for and 86 against premiership quadrant thing equates to a percentage of 116.28, anything at all to be gleaned from these numbers?

2000 Essendon 159.10
2001 Brisbane 127.60
2002 Brisbane 136.73
2003 Brisbane 121.94
2004 Power 132.36
2005 Sydney 116.39
2006 West Coast 120.44
2007 Geelong 152.76
2008 Hawks 131.85
2009 Geelong 127.38
2010 Collingwood 141.68
2011 Geelong 157.38
2012 Sydney 140.58
2013 Hawks 135.72
2014 Hawks 140.78
2015 Hawks 158.40

All the teams from each year above the 116.28 percentage for the past 16 seasons:

2000 - Essendon beat Melbourne
Essendon 159.10
Carlton 134.77
Melbourne 118.43
Brisbane 117.10

2001 - Brisbane beat Essendon
Essendon 134.46
Brisbane 127.60
Power 128.94
Carlton 128.60

2002 - Brisbane beat Collingwood
Power 132.36
Brisbane 136.73

2003 - Brisbane beat Collingwood
Power 127.23
Collingwood 121.58
Brisbane 121.94

2004 - Power beat Brisbane
Power 132.36
Brisbane 137.24
Saints 127.97
Geelong 119.93

2005 - Sydney beat West Coast
Adelaide 136.45
West Coast 123.96
Sydney 116.39
Saints 133.28

2006 - West Coast beat Sydney
West Coast 120.44
Adelaide 142.13
Sydney 128.71
Collingwood 119.34
Saints 118.38

2007 - Geelong destroyed Power
Geelong 152.76

2008 - Hawks beat Geelong
Geelong 161.84
Hawks 131.85
Bulldogs 118.66

2009 - Geelong beat St Kilda
Saints 155.71
Geelong 127.38
Bulldogs 122.58
Collingwood 122.27
Adelaide 117.61

2010 - Collingwood beat Saints
Collingwood 141.68
Geelong 147.94
Saints 121.62
Bulldogs 125.37

2011 - Geelong beat Collingwood
Collingwood 167.66
Geelong 157.38
Hawks 144.12
West Coast 130.32
Carlton 130.88

2012 - Sydney beat Hawks
Hawks 154.59
Adelaide 132.46
Sydney 140.58
Collingwood 116.46
West Coast 124.18
Geelong 117.13

2013 - Hawks beat Freo
Hawks 135.72
Geelong 135.64
Freo 134.06
Sydney 132.47
Tigers 122.81
North 119.53 (outside 8)

2014 - Hawks beat Sydney
Sydney 142.88
Hawks 140.78
Freo 130.40
Power 129.92
North 117.04
West Coast 116.86 (outside 8)

2015 - Hawks beat West Coast
Freo 118.73
West Coast 148.22
Hawks 158.40
Sydney 127.12
Richmond 123.09
 
maybe we lose the close ones because they are generally when the umps get involved in deciding the outcome...
 
Jeebus leave the umpires alone. Or maybe we aren't good enough.

if it was Port you wouldn't even think of the umpires. You would be calling them ( as I would ;) ) chokers
 

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