News Swans Talk in the Media 2019

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sthmelb_dimmies

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SQUIGGLE said:
Sydney are that low because they tailed off badly in 2018 despite being able to put out something close to a full-strength team most weeks, and did not significantly bolster their team in the trading period.
https://squiggle.com.au/
Screen Shot 2019-01-07 at 10.53.53 am.png


I think Squiggle hasn't discounted for the amount of senior places being used up by injuries. It's true the swans haven't tangibly added to the mix, but we've improved by pruning.
 

TheMase

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The squiggle model has been less accurate in recent years. 2016 it had Dogs mid pack. For 2017 and 2018 it had the respective premiers no where near the pointy end.

It takes into account the last two years of results if I recall correctly. So our 2016 season data would have dropped off and our 2017 season started 0-6, so it’s not surprising it is probably undervaluing us at this stage.

A strong start this season will see us quickly rocket up the predictive standings.
 

TheMase

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Maybe the Squiggle model factors in the Horse game plan, which is at risk of being registered by the National Trust.
Well it does in a sense. Squiggle statistical data prefers attacking teams.

What it doesn’t take into account, if I recall, is weather conditions (lower scoring), injuries and the like.
 

Number37

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The squiggle model has been less accurate in recent years. 2016 it had Dogs mid pack. For 2017 and 2018 it had the respective premiers no where near the pointy end.

It takes into account the last two years of results if I recall correctly. So our 2016 season data would have dropped off and our 2017 season started 0-6, so it’s not surprising it is probably undervaluing us at this stage.

A strong start this season will see us quickly rocket up the predictive standings.
Squiggle is the opposite of those super ads. Past performance is the only predictor of future performance.
 

Arwib

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As far as I can see, most predictive models are not going to rate the Swans chances particularly highly heading into this season. There's not a lot in the available data that would justify it, we look thoroughly mid table everywhere except our defence, and everything from about 6th to 14th is generally pretty close in many models.

Most of our reasons for thinking we'll be fine are based on familiarity with the list and the club, and subjective justifications based on those things, our history of overperforming expectations, simple affection bias.

It's not surprising, either. We had a really weird, patchy year, mixed between beating finalists, losing to the Suns, dropping a bunch of games at home. It averages out to "not great". If we do jump the ladder again it'll be in defiance of recent data, a change which by its very nature is hard to pick from said data.
 
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Arwib

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I think the swing in their fixture alone is actually worth nearly 2 wins, they've gone from what turned out to be probably the hardest in 2018 to just about the easiest projected 2019 fixture strength.

Plus Roberton and Bruce as virtual recruits are probably worth a little given how bad they were in those parts of the ground last year.
 
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bedford

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I think the swing in their fixture alone is actually worth nearly 2 wins, they've gone from what turned out to be probably the hardest in 2018 to just about the easiest projected 2019 fixture strength.

Plus Roberton and Bruce as virtual recruits are probably worth a little given how bad they were in those parts of the ground last year.
Before I check , is this thread not Swans in the media ?
 

Arwib

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Eh, it's a Hannebery and Squiggle related conversation. I can mention Tim Membrey would benefit from the return of Bruce too, if you like?
 

Big Blood

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Pre-season predictions are always a complete joke.

They are invariably based on last year's form and list analysis (also based on last year's form).

They never take any notice of, eg, assistant coaching changes. Look at how that impacted Richmond (13th-1st) and Collingwood (13th-2nd) in last two years. Far bigger than any getting a first-round pick.

No one ever acknowledges the obvious, which is that year to year teams improve or fall back for reasons no one ever expects. Like who would've predicted our mids would've have dropped their output last year? Not very much but was probably our biggest single change.

Anyway back to Swans media. I don't know where to post it, but this interview with Andrew Ireland is worth watching for all Swans fans. Covers everything -- the Buddy deal (was fairly sure six-eight months out), Hall playing in the '05 GF (never doubted he'd get off), recruiting JPK (his manager's idea), the Goodes saga (AFL acted too late), 2012 premiership (recruiting Kennedy, Mumford, Reid, Jetta set us up), trading out Mitchell (it was either him or Heeney or Mills).

This exchange over BBBH:
Sheahan: Barry Hall himself says he shouldn't have played.
Ireland: Yeah but Barry's not a very good judge.
Sheahan: He's not a very good judge of when to hit someone.
Ireland: He's not a very good judge of things.

http://www.sydneyswans.com.au/video/2018-12-21/a-life-in-football
 
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