Mega Thread The 2017 'Buckley's Chances' Thread

[cust22]

There's improvement coming in this list.

Whether it's Buckley coaching or Paul Roos, it's coming.

How much improvement is up for debate, but you can't argue with the fact that in a crazy season if we kicked straight in early games, had a few umpiring decisions go our way against Melbourne or if Stevey J doesn't pull off a fluke etc etc etc... we're at 7-7 instead of 5-9, still in the finals picture, showing the kind of improvement you'd expect from a young list and Buckley is odds on to keep his job.

Keen observers will notice that in the last fortnight, Nathan has started saying that there's 'holes in the list' that need filling. The narrative has changed already. It's a backpedal and worth talking about as the pitch begins for 2018 and beyond.

Our clear needs, as I see them.

- A competent, dangerous, mobile, straight-kicking key forward (I don't know if this person exists - but I'd be basing a package around Steele Sidebottom to the Gold Coast to find out if Peter Wright can be had)
- A younger, healthier and professional version of Daniel Wells (identifying that Wells' skill set would help us was spot on. Trusting a 32 year old injury-prone pea-heart, not so much - it's almost worth using our first pick on this).
- A solid plan B for Brodie Grundy's eventual injury that isn't an American. (Can anyone imagine what we'd look like if Brodie Grundy got injured? This keeps me up at night)
- A key defender/swingman to pair with McClarty when Reid/Dunn pack it in (What I'd be using our first pick on, unless there's a Fyfe/Bont like phenom waiting for us)

I'm not 100% sure I trust Buckley or Derek Hyne to get these decisions right.

Bucks can complain about the media intensity all he likes, but the truth of the matter is that we're the most interesting club in football right now.

- We've got a club legend in the final year of a contract as coach.
- Either the club has rated the list wrong or sold the idea of the list wrong to the members - probably both. This has split the fan base, caused unrest and created a PR nightmare.
- We've spent 4 years without playing finals with absolutely no guarantee that we will remedy that in 2018.
- Can the same people who thought Chris Mayne was worth 4 years and Daniel Wells worth 3 years - both on big money - be capable of identifying and solving the problems with this rebuild? Or does someone else have to come in to clean shop and start again?

I'm fascinated with how the next 2 months play out. I just hope we get the right journalists asking the right questions and not chasing cheap clickbait headlines. Time will tell.

FWIW - I think if we continue to be competitive for the rest of the season and win around 9-10 games, Nathan will hold his seat until the end of 2019.

Derek Hyne and his recruiting and list management team should be the first out the door.

Thanks for 2010 Derek, but you'd be the first person I replace this summer.

The last two sentences are my thoughts exactly, our recruiting and list management has been atrocious. Sure Buckley would have 'some' say but at the end of the day we employ Hine and his team to get Buckley the best and most balanced list available. They have failed for a few years now....i would sack Hine and co before Buckley in a heart beat.

 

[Scribe26]

Brad Scott has coached north to 2 prelims, Hardwick finals. Buckley has done nothing but decline.

In 2012 we lost Luke Ball and Krak to ACLs, missed a dozen players to major injury throughout the season, still had a patch where we won 10 games in a row and lost a prelim final by 4 goals.

Naturally, when you take on a job in which a team has come off a Premiership and a Grand Final loss, the only way is down.

Do people who use this "nothing but decline" argument so vehemently not accept that?

What exactly was he supposed to do? Top up the list forever?

I think Nathan's biggest crime was taking on the job in the first place.

For some, it was always going to be a no-win situation.

 

[mike123]

Jolly and Ball were the 2 critical ones. By 2012 Jolly was lucky to jump over a jam tin and Ball couldn't run out of sight on the darkest of nights. BJ's shoulder was ruined, Dids was never the same beyond the pec injury, Leroy retired at 29 because his body was cooked, Brown, Ball, Krak all had season ending ACL's, we lost Fraser, Medhurst, Presti et al after 2010 which decimated our depth... It just goes on and on.

Ellis, Sewell and Bailey are cooked how are we going to replace them. Bateman's gone too oh noes. Osborne's cooked and Guerra's slowing down. Clinton Young's gone as well. We also lost Williams, Gilham and Ladson and Croad before hand as well.
Oh wait wrong team.


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[10571z]

In 2012 we lost Luke Ball and Krak to ACLs, missed a dozen players to major injury throughout the season, still had a patch where we won 10 games in a row and lost a prelim final by 4 goals.

Naturally, when you take on a job in which a team has come off a Premiership and a Grand Final loss, the only way is down.

Do people who use this "nothing but decline" argument so vehemently not accept that?

What exactly was he supposed to do? Top up the list forever?

I think Nathan's biggest crime was taking on the job in the first place.

For some, it was always going to be a no-win situation.

A 5 year old could have coached that team to a prelim.


Why has Geelong consitantly played finals minus 1 year since Chris Scott took over and look a massive chance to take the flag this year?

Of course the only way is down but doesn't mean down forever. 6 years in decline now a bottom 4 finish looks likely

 

[ant22]

Brad Scott 7 years
Damien Hardwick 7 years
Gary Ayres 9 years
Neal Daniher 9 years

And that is without even giving it too much thought

Really, have you spent any time at all comparing records.

I don't rate Scott as a coach. If I were North Id move him on. Having said that he took north to finals in 2012 , 2014, 2015 and 2016. He improved the club in those years from when he took over. Bucks has not done this. He has alot more runs on the board than Bucks has.

Hardwick inherited a basket case. We all know about Richmonds awful record when it comes to making finals. This year will be the 4th in 5 years he has taken them to finals. His record clearly shows the club is in a much better place know compared to when he took over. Like Bucks Hardwick had a year when he had to make finals. So far he has delivered.

At Geelong, Ayres lasted 5 years and made finals including a grand final in 3 of those years.
He lasted another 4 and a half years at Adelaide and they improved significantly in the first 3 years(finals 3 times) they regressed slighty in his 4th and was sacked half way through his 5th.

Daniher was very lucky to last 9 years. Im not sure modeling ourselves on Melbourne is a great idea. You had to go back 10 years to come up with a half decent example. But in that time even he was able to take and average list to a grand final.

Scott , Ayres and Hardwick while not great coaches have been significantly better than Bucks as they have all proved they can improve their respective teams. The only 2 years Bucks has taken this side to finals was with a list I could have taken to finals. His win/loss record in the last 4 years is horrible.

He has had his time and has not been able to prove he can coach. I love ya Bucks but time to see if someone else can do better.

 

[PieBeast]

Ellis, Sewell and Bailey are cooked how are we going to replace them. Bateman's gone too oh noes. Osborne's cooked and Guerra's slowing down. Clinton Young's gone as well. We also lost Williams, Gilham and Ladson and Croad before hand as well.
Oh wait wrong team.


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You also forgot Buddy and they won 2 flags after he left.

 

[Scribe26]

Ellis, Sewell and Bailey are cooked how are we going to replace them. Bateman's gone too oh noes. Osborne's cooked and Guerra's slowing down. Clinton Young's gone as well. We also lost Williams, Gilham and Ladson and Croad before hand as well.
Oh wait wrong team.


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It's a good point.

The understanding and synchronicity between Clarkson and his list managers and recruiters at the time, Graham Wright and Buckanara were far superior to the one we still see today between Buckley and Hyne.

Some players have worked, others have failed miserably.

What you can contend is that while Hawthorn were able to define and fill their main needs and most important playing pieces, we went out and recruited Clinton Young, Quinten Lynch, Jesse White, Chris Mayne, Daniel Wells etc etc.

Comes back to my whole "Buckley has never been the only one to blame and just maybe, he might be able to coach" thing.

 

[ThePheonix]

In 2012 we lost Luke Ball and Krak to ACLs, missed a dozen players to major injury throughout the season, still had a patch where we won 10 games in a row and lost a prelim final by 4 goals.

Naturally, when you take on a job in which a team has come off a Premiership and a Grand Final loss, the only way is down.

Do people who use this "nothing but decline" argument so vehemently not accept that?

What exactly was he supposed to do? Top up the list forever?

I think Nathan's biggest crime was taking on the job in the first place.

For some, it was always going to be a no-win situation.

You realise that was 6 years ago, right? So when will the decline stop? haha

 

[swoop42]

If only DIDS, JOLLY. BALL, BJ, TAZZ, KRAKOUER, LBrown etc had been 3 years younger we may well have had a dynasty - so you are completely correct its a myth.

All of the above is no excuse for not being able to maintain our position in the top 8 over the proceeding years.

Geelong with a far older premiership side in 2011 ( 3 years on average) have missed finals once under Scott and finished on 17 wins last season.

They're heading for another top 4 finish while we flounder in the bottom 4.

Honestly it's been a complete stuff up under Buckley with the Geelong example exactly what was expected of us at the start of 2012.

Anyone thinking anything else are deluding themselves into finding any excuse for the coach and club.

 

[PhiloBeddoe]

Ellis, Sewell and Bailey are cooked how are we going to replace them. Bateman's gone too oh noes. Osborne's cooked and Guerra's slowing down. Clinton Young's gone as well. We also lost Williams, Gilham and Ladson and Croad before hand as well.
Oh wait wrong team.


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Can aspire to be like Hawthorn at their peak but how realistic is it?

 

[Krueger]

In the first couple of rounds in 2012, you were already moaning about the gameplan and having a crack at Buckley. Couldn't take many of your posts seriously after that. Put it this way, some posters at least waited until they'd seen a couple of years before they jumped off. I'm more likely to respect what they have to say even though I may have issues with the way they say it. Realistically, you were were never going to give him a chance and that was evident very early in the piece.

Give him a chance for what? He took over when he shouldnt have so giving him any slack whatsoever is beyond a joke. You take over when the team is flying you better perform and giving him years to "settle into the job" is hilarious.

Many thought like you back then and here we are years later a basket case so your the last person to lecture about what should have and shouldnt have been. You have NFI.

 

[mike123]

You also forgot Buddy and they won 2 flags after he left.

To be fair I was talking with the perspective of after their 2012 grand final loss but they had no problems losing one of the competitions best. I'm so sick of seeing player x was cooked we can't do anything about it.


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[Baltimore Jack]

Brad Scott has coached north to 2 prelims, Hardwick finals. Buckley has done nothing but decline.

Buckley got us to a Prelim and an Elimination Final

Next....

 

[Baltimore Jack]

Not changing the criteria, it is about understanding the sort of trajectory a good or great coach has in their career. From observing previous coaches, they tend to start off improving, with an upward trend, then followed by a downward trend, anywhere between couple to a few years (3 years seems the most) and finally same sort of success.

From the bunch of coaches you mentioned, Damien Hadwick has had such a direction, though I have yet to have come across any coach with a constant downward trend that has turned into a great coach. Buckley would probably be the first, if he does turn out to be a great coach.

Simply put, the odds are stacked against him.

You need to look harder

 

[jackcass]

Brad Scott has coached north to 2 prelims, Hardwick finals. Buckley has done nothing but decline.

Kevin Sheedy - Essendon v Pies

2000 - Prem ~~ 2010 - Prem
2001 - 2nd ~~ 2011 - 2nd
2002 - 5th ~~ 2012 - 4th
2003 - 8th ~~ 2013 - 8th
2004 - 8th ~~ 2014 - 11th
2005 - 13th ~~ 2015 - 12th
2006 - 15th ~~ 2016 - 12th
2007 - 12th ~~ 2017 - TBC

Guess you'll be telling us Sheedy can't coach either.

 

[ant22]

Buckley got us to a Prelim and an Elimination Final

Next....

Buckley got us to a Prelim and an Elimination Final

Next....

You are delusional Jack. In 2011 our side had the best % of any side in the AFL. We went into 2012 as flag favorites. We finished 4th. Id say we under achieved. By the end of 2013 (after another decline)despite not being that old Bucks and Co decided a mini rebuild was needed and its been all downhill from there. Keep believing what you want to believe but you are kidding yourself if you think Bucks coaching record stakes up to Brad Scotts. And Scott is an average coach. Is that what you want average?

NEXT....

 

[ThePheonix]

You need to look harder

meaning, you can't find any either

 

[swoop42]

So after missing finals for 4 years Sheedy a 4 time premiership coach was sacked.

Well if it's good for the goose....

 

[Scodog10]

Brad Scott 7 years
Damien Hardwick 7 years
Gary Ayres 9 years
Neal Daniher 9 years

And that is without even giving it too much thought

It's pretty obvious too!

 

[ant22]

So after missing finals for 4 years Sheedy a 4 time premiership coach was sacked.

Well if it's good for the goose....

It's fair to say sheeds might have had a few more runs on the board. Although, the apologists don't see it that way

 

[Sleuth1]

I just reread what Buckley said in the presser as reported in the Herald Sun Monday. The takeaways from it were that we are an immature team, as evidenced that players get punished, learning hard lessons, experience pain and that is all part of the process until the players are into their late 20s. The supporters should be excited about our future he says. I struggle with what Buckley says, he seems to be cementing a culture that seems to have little joy and lowering expectations for the supporters; while at the same time we should be excited. Not too much excitement here for me. I feel helpless and hopeless about our short to medium term future with our couching group, selection and recruiting. Then I am not too excited about Buckley's game day coaching. He fails to tag important players, improve the players decision making and skills and fails to make changes to stem the oppositions flow. We lack key position players and have a fleet of mids who seems exhausted by the end of the game and their skills then fail them. I wish I could hear from Ed to provide some vision for the future. It feels like we are going to enter a long sustained bleak period of our Club History for the sake of keeping Bucks. Retire him now.

 

[swoop42]

Buckley can thank his lucky stars he took over such a strong list during a period of strong off field stability.

Without it his record might eerily resemble that of Tony Shaw.

 

[PieBeast]

So after missing finals for 4 years Sheedy a 4 time premiership coach was sacked.

Well if it's good for the goose....

3*

 

[jackcass]

Ellis, Sewell and Bailey are cooked how are we going to replace them. Bateman's gone too oh noes. Osborne's cooked and Guerra's slowing down. Clinton Young's gone as well. We also lost Williams, Gilham and Ladson and Croad before hand as well.
Oh wait wrong team.


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Exactly, 2008 - premiers, 2009 - 9th

 

[Peter Sidorkiewicz]

For those people who want to re-contract Buckley for another season or two; I would like to read some reasons why you want him to stay.

Please restrict your reasoning to coaching matters only.

Don't talk about player injuries, poor list management decisions; multiple football manager changes as reasons why Buckley should get a chop out and therefore get extended.

What coaching decisions do you think Buckley has made on & off the field that shows that Bucks has done enough to keep his job.