The 2017 Rolling All-Australian Thread

[Happy Mastenator]

Besides Greene and Betts I don't think there's been a standout small/med fwd, so put Dahlhaus and Martin on the flanks.

Dustin Martin i can understand, he's had 16 goals and 12 goal assists

Other flanker options include
Robbie Gray 24 and 14
Fantasia 25 and 13

Both of them just a lazy 30 goal/goal assists more than Dalhaus. Dalhaus hasn't been good enough as a straight mid to deserve a spot either.

 

[cotter101]

Besides Greene and Betts I don't think there's been a standout small/med fwd, so put Dahlhaus and Martin on the flanks.

Zorko?

 

[Super Hans]

Zorko?

Yeah, that's actually a good shout. I was trying to get Rockliff in so just glossed over every other Lion.

 

[The Swert]

So Grundy is ranked second for marks out of the mentioned Ruckman? Surprising if so

Just checked. He's 4th of that group.
Not sure what happened there.

Jacobs averaging 4.2 per game, Martin 4.0, McEvoy 3.9, Grundy 3.4, Ryder 3.3.

 

[Happy Mastenator]

Just checked. He's 4th of that group.
Not sure what happened there.

Jacobs averaging 4.2 per game, Martin 4.0, McEvoy 3.9, Grundy 3.4, Ryder 3.3.

Depends whether you value marks, or contested marks, can throw a blanket over Jacobs 1.6, McEvoy, 1.7, Ryder 1.8. Whereas Martin and Grundy are down at 0.4 a game.

 

[The Swert]

Depends whether you value marks, or contested marks, can throw a blanket over Jacobs 1.6, McEvoy, 1.7, Ryder 1.8. Whereas Martin and Grundy are down at 0.4 a game.

Obviously there are many comparisons that are possible.

I would have added hitouts to advantage too, but that stat seems to be behind the Champion Data paywall.

 

[eDPS]

There's no way Petracca would be even close, which shows how flawed these ratings can be.

Can add Atkins and Hall to that aswell

 

[Damon_3388]

Obviously there are many comparisons that are possible.

I would have added hitouts to advantage too, but that stat seems to be behind the Champion Data paywall.

I'd get rid of disposals and marks entirely (they're simply not an indicator of whether a ruckman has been effective in his specific role) and add 1%ers and inside 50s instead, as I did with my analysis earlier in the thread at the end of Round 10.

If hitout to advantage stats were readily available, we'd then have a nice 'Five Factors of Ruckwork' to judge upon - H2A (setting up a teammate with the tap), clearances (winning a contest and clearing the ball from the pack), inside 50s (getting the ball forward), tackles (stopping the progress of the opposition) and 1%ers (clearing space for teammates with a shepherd or block, a knock-on to a teammate in a contest, spoiling or smothering the ball).

Other stats are really just garnish for ruckmen, to be used as additional tie-breakers, not for the main judgement.

 

[Young Gun #6]

FB: Yeo, Rance, Laird
HB: Roberton, McGovern, Docherty
C: Sloane, Dangerfield, Kelly
HF: Greene, Daniher, Martin
FF: Betts, Kennedy, Cameron
R: Ryder, Selwood, Pendlebury

IC: T.Mitchell, Dixon, Hurley, Ebert

 

[The Swert]

I'd get rid of disposals and marks entirely (they're simply not an indicator of whether a ruckman has been effective in his specific role) and add 1%ers and inside 50s instead, as I did with my analysis earlier in the thread at the end of Round 10.

If hitout to advantage stats were readily available, we'd then have a nice 'Five Factors of Ruckwork' to judge upon - H2A (setting up a teammate with the tap), clearances (winning a contest and clearing the ball from the pack), inside 50s (getting the ball forward), tackles (stopping the progress of the opposition) and 1%ers (clearing space for teammates with a shepherd or block, a knock-on to a teammate in a contest, spoiling or smothering the ball).

Other stats are really just garnish for ruckmen, to be used as additional tie-breakers, not for the main judgement.

I doubt the selectors ignore disposal stats.

Otherwise Sandilands would have more AAs than Cox.

 

[PowerForGood]

FB: Yeo, Rance, Laird
HB: Roberton, McGovern, Docherty
C: Sloane, Dangerfield, Kelly
HF: Greene, Daniher, Martin
FF: Betts, Kennedy, Cameron
R: Ryder, Selwood, Pendlebury

IC: T.Mitchell, Dixon, Hurley, Ebert

Good effort.

I wouldn't have Ryder in though. Current form maybe but understandably slowish start.

 

[TonaldDrump]

No matter how many times you say it bro Seb Ross isn't better than Bontempelli.

Ross has been better then Bont this year. Realistically, Bont shouldn't even be in contention for an AA spot as his form has been pretty poor.

 

[Coaster2012]

Laird - Tarrant - Roberton
Yeo - Hurley - Docherty
Kelly - Selwood - Merrett
Dahlhaus - Cameron - Martin
Betts - Franklin - Greene
Jacobs - Sloane - Dangerfield


Bontempelli, Ebert, Pendlebury, Mitchell

Dalhaus makes your forward line, but Kennedy not a look? Not even on the bench? Interesting. Dalhaus wouldn't even be close to AA.

 

[Bardo State]

Good effort.

I wouldn't have Ryder in though. Current form maybe but understandably slowish start.

Could have 5/6 different names in there really. No one is demanding the ruck spot just yet.

 

[TonaldDrump]

FB: Laird, Rance, Docherty
CHB: Hurley, Tarrant, Williams
C: Kelly, Dangerfield, Zorko
CHF: Cameron, Franklin, Greene
FF: Betts, Hawkins, Fantasia
R: Ryder, Martin, Sloane
INT: Merrett, Selwood, Rockliff, Yeo

First time trying one of these AA teams so it would be great to get some critical feedback.
I went with the 3 talls in the backline. Rance and Tarrant to take the power fowards and Hurley as a loose player. I also added some speed and class with Laird, Williams, Docherty and Yeo to rebound.
I went with a mix of class and grunt through the middle. Kelly and Zorko have been super impressive this year and I see them as running type players. Dangerfield, Martin, Sloane and Selwood as the contested beasts who gets it out to the likes of Kelly, Zorko and Merrett. Ryder has been the best tap ruckman in my opinion this year.
Went with the 3 talls in the forward line, even though Cameron isn't really that tall. Hawkins and Franklin have been awesome this year. Greene and Betts are locks for me. Fantasia i'm not too sure about, maybe replace him with a rotating mid or Garlett?

 

[Damon_3388]

I doubt the selectors ignore disposal stats.

Otherwise Sandilands would have more AAs than Cox.

Well are we playing "nearest to the pin" with what the selectors might think based on who they selected 5-10 years ago, or are we offering our own thoughts and opinions on who is worthy of selection and why?

 

[The Swert]

Opinions are meant to disagree.

So we'll agree to disagree

 

[Suma Magic]

FB: Laird Rance Roberton
HB: Yeo Hurley Docherty
C: Merrett Sloane Kelly
HF: Greene Daniher Martin
FF: Betts Cameron Gray

R: ? Dangerfield Selwood

I: Oliver Pendlebury Neale Dixon

E: Ablett Kennedy Franklin Mitchell Ebert Bontempelli Adams Ross Williams Wines Fantasia Tarrant Talia Murphy Rucks

 

[Yippy Yi Yeo]

I don't think what you quoted actually says that. It says that Gawn is second in number of ruck contests contested (behind someone, unsure who, definitely not Naitanui) and second in contest win % (at 52%, well behind Naitanui's 61%). So it means that Gawn was getting to more contests but Natanui was winning more often when he was there.

Now, if Gawn was winning 52% of ruck taps up to round 10 last year, it means he had won 407/783 ruck contests. That means his overall hit-out to advantage rate was 150/783 = 19.2%

Similarly, if Naitanui was winning 62% of ruck taps up to round 10 last year, it means he had won 358/577 ruck contests. That means Naitanui's overall hit-out to advantage rate was 120/577 = 20.8%

So the sheer volume of contests Gawn was getting to meant he was better than Naitanui in totals, but ever so slightly behind in HO to adv ratio. However this does mean that when Gawn wins a tap, it's more likely to go to advantage than when Naitanui wins a tap (36.9% for Gawn, 33.5% for Natanui).

Another aspect that makes Naitanui so brutal is his clearance work compared to other ruckman.

Up to round 10 last year, he had 7.1 clearances/100 ruck contests. Gawn had 4.0 clearances/100 ruck contests, almost half that of Naitanui.

When you use avg TOG% instead of ruck contests, the figures become Natanui 6.0 clearances/10% TOG%, Gawn 3.7 clearances/10% TOG%, again almost half.

All of these figures were taken for up to the completion of round 10, 2016 as this is the period for which you provided hit-out to advantage stats. It is also arguably the best period of Gawn's career and not that of Naitanui. I think what these figures show, at least over this period is that Naitanui is more damaging when on the ground/in a contest, but Gawn stays on the ground for so much longer that the sheer volume of minutes he plays and contests he gets to make him arguably comparable to/better than Naitanui on the whole (for this period).

Good bit of statistical analysis there, I don't know why I didn't think to do that, which pretty much confirms my suspicions. Of ruck contests attended, Naitanui wins a higher %, and of ruck contests attended naitanui has a higher % to advantage.

Ah yes, a bit of self ownership there

Nonetheless, his percentage hitout to advantage was superior to all other ruckmen.

How bout game ?

 

[Trav 20]

Good bit of statistical analysis there, I don't know why I didn't think to do that, which pretty much confirms my suspicions. Of ruck contests attended, Naitanui wins a higher %, and of ruck contests attended naitanui has a higher % to advantage.

How do you work that out ?

However this does mean that when Gawn wins a tap, it's more likely to go to advantage than when Naitanui wins a tap (36.9% for Gawn, 33.5% for Natanui).

 

[Art Vandelay_]

Might as well do it now as I think it's a high probability that AA selectors do so.
Selwood (C).

 

[Super Hans]

Dalhaus makes your forward line, but Kennedy not a look? Not even on the bench? Interesting. Dalhaus wouldn't even be close to AA.

Kennedy is gonna end up missing like a month of footy. That's why he's not in.

 

[Yippy Yi Yeo]

How do you work that out ?

However this does mean that when Gawn wins a tap, it's more likely to go to advantage than when Naitanui wins a tap (36.9% for Gawn, 33.5% for Natanui).

Based on the stats the other guy posted, of hitouts attended by naitanui, 20.8% of the time it will go to advantage, whereas 19.2% of the time gawn rucks it goes to advantage.

 

[Yippy Yi Yeo]

Kennedy is gonna end up missing like a month of footy. That's why he's not in.

Kennedy is tracking to be a chance for a return against geelong, if not will be back the week after. He's already a game down and still leading the coleman.

 

[Bardo State]

Well are we playing "nearest to the pin" with what the selectors might think based on who they selected 5-10 years ago, or are we offering our own thoughts and opinions on who is worthy of selection and why?

I don't think disposal stats would be as irrelevant as you're making out, especially with the lack of correlation winning hit-outs has had with actually winning games. If a ruckman can be a 'high' possesion winner, either through running and link-up play or through clearance work, I'm not convinced that is less valuable than being good at tap-work.

It's a real shame that hit-out to advantage stats aren't readily available as intuitively they're far more valuable than just hit-outs but hopefully I'll get around to doing a little analysis as to which (commonly available) ruck statistics have a higher correlation with winning games/clearances. At least once I get a bit of a break from exams.