Analysis The Case for a Priority Pick

[M Malice]

I would love it if we get to the bye in 2018 and we have 4-6 wins and the PP isn't even in the discussion.

 

[Dalions]

I would love it if we get to the bye in 2018 and we have 4-6 wins and the PP isn't even in the discussion.

And finish with how many? What is a pass mark for us this year? 7, 8 wins? Would be good progress. Will need a couple of teams to fall.

 

[dlanod]

And finish with how many? What is a pass mark for us this year? 7, 8 wins? Would be good progress. Will need a couple of teams to fall.

At this stage I can see us having a reasonable chance to beat anyone in the bottom six of this year's ladder, and a chance to upset anyone in the middle six. We might not be favourites in many but surely a six plus win season isn't out of the question.

 

[Lace Out]

Midfield rotation injuries will be a huge factor in our season next year.Wins between 2 and 7 I reckon.

 

[spotthedog1]

It depends. Rocky being out hurts us, but he's been in and out for a bit now. Will depend on growth.

I know there are a lot here disappointed with the trade period, but realistically, it won't hurt our short-term performance. On the contrary, getting Hodge and Cameron in will probably more than offset the loss of Rocky.

Sadly, trade periods like this one will harm our long term potential though, so be prepared for us to hit finals in 2-3 years time, but not progress very high, before heading back for another rebuild. In which case, a priority pick will not be forthcoming.

 

[Viceregal]

We all would, but the AFL and transparency have never met before.

Well there was that time in a dark alley...

 

[winged1]

Well there was that time in a dark alley...

And that didn't end well for transparency.

 

[trikster]

Sadly, trade periods like this one will harm our long term potential though, so be prepared for us to hit finals in 2-3 years time, but not progress very high, before heading back for another rebuild. In which case, a priority pick will not be forthcoming.

What makes you think this trade period has harmed our long term potential to the point it has ruined the team we are building? (which seems to be what you are suggesting when you say another rebuild will be required)

 

[BuntonRules]

It depends. Rocky being out hurts us, but he's been in and out for a bit now. Will depend on growth.

I know there are a lot here disappointed with the trade period, but realistically, it won't hurt our short-term performance. On the contrary, getting Hodge and Cameron in will probably more than offset the loss of Rocky.

Sadly, trade periods like this one will harm our long term potential though, so be prepared for us to hit finals in 2-3 years time, but not progress very high, before heading back for another rebuild. In which case, a priority pick will not be forthcoming.

Always look on the bright side of life, doo doo..............

 

[bungalow_bill]

It depends. Rocky being out hurts us, but he's been in and out for a bit now. Will depend on growth.

I know there are a lot here disappointed with the trade period, but realistically, it won't hurt our short-term performance. On the contrary, getting Hodge and Cameron in will probably more than offset the loss of Rocky.

Sadly, trade periods like this one will harm our long term potential though, so be prepared for us to hit finals in 2-3 years time, but not progress very high, before heading back for another rebuild. In which case, a priority pick will not be forthcoming.

We have more talent (albeit very young) on our list than Richmond with more to come. More than enough to snag a flag in a few years. Of course this is dependant on guys like McCluggage and Witherden staying the course

 

[Kernel Kurtz]

We have more talent (albeit very young) on our list than Richmond with more to come. More than enough to snag a flag in a few years. Of course this is dependant on guys like McCluggage and Witherden staying the course

Thats the key to our success next year or greater improvement will be if these boys want to stay and already know that, otherwise i see a distraction coming and uncomitted efforts.

 

[spotthedog1]

What makes you think this trade period has harmed our long term potential to the point it has ruined the team we are building? (which seems to be what you are suggesting when you say another rebuild will be required)

We are building through the draft... Until we aren't.

To win a premiership, everything has to go right or you have to be very lucky (ala bulldogs 2016).

I think we are currently at 4 top 10 draftees on our list (Mayes, Rich, Mccluggage, pick1). And hodge, but he's more an on field coach than a player. That is significantly lower than AFL average. We have been down the bottom for a long time, and we have failed to amass substantial talent. We have some decent players, but we don't have this magical GWS level of talent where you just have to wait for them to get older.

So when we blow a top 10 pick, it hurts us more than most. And when we trade that player out for (effectively) an upgrade from pick 20 to pick 15, we are basically lowering the ceiling on the amount of talent we have on our list. Schache wasnt a sure thing and could yet bust, and I know, you can get stars late, but statistically it's more frequent at the top of the draft. Point is, we traded out pick 12 for a player who, in my opinion, could still be a bust and even if he isn't, has a fairly low ceiling. We traded out Schache, who has a decent shot of being a very good key forward for a pick upgrade (when combined with the Richmond trade). In my eyes, we lost more talent during that trade period than we can expect to gain through the draft. Meanwhile, our list gets older, and still we wait for progress.

So yes, i think we lowered the ceiling on the amount of talent this rebuild can amass, which lowers our potential success before we start from scratch.

 

[Checkered]

If that Schache deal was done before Rocky went, we definitely would have got a manufactured pick 2 compo.

The thing about that statement is that it can’t be proved right or wrong but I’d have bet my left nut on it.

 

[briztoon]

We are building through the draft... Until we aren't.

To win a premiership, everything has to go right or you have to be very lucky (ala bulldogs 2016).

I think we are currently at 4 top 10 draftees on our list (Mayes, Rich, Mccluggage, pick1). And hodge, but he's more an on field coach than a player. That is significantly lower than AFL average. We have been down the bottom for a long time, and we have failed to amass substantial talent. We have some decent players, but we don't have this magical GWS level of talent where you just have to wait for them to get older.

So when we blow a top 10 pick, it hurts us more than most. And when we trade that player out for (effectively) an upgrade from pick 20 to pick 15, we are basically lowering the ceiling on the amount of talent we have on our list. Schache wasnt a sure thing and could yet bust, and I know, you can get stars late, but statistically it's more frequent at the top of the draft. Point is, we traded out pick 12 for a player who, in my opinion, could still be a bust and even if he isn't, has a fairly low ceiling. We traded out Schache, who has a decent shot of being a very good key forward for a pick upgrade (when combined with the Richmond trade). In my eyes, we lost more talent during that trade period than we can expect to gain through the draft. Meanwhile, our list gets older, and still we wait for progress.

So yes, i think we lowered the ceiling on the amount of talent this rebuild can amass, which lowers our potential success before we start from scratch.

It looks like we are in the minority with this thinking.

 

[Sanchez365]

I feel as a Brisbane supporter we should know better then most, that it isn't the list on paper that gets your the wins. We had what looked like a solid midfield group on paper that just didn't work in practise.

The list is being reshaped to fit the game plan that fagan is trying to implement. That will take time and a few off season, I think Cameron or a player of his I'll is very important to that, which is why the club was so keen to get him on board.

When it comes to losing schache, yes it seems like a waste to have lost that pick 2, as it could have been better spent on a different player that will fill a bigger need now, thankfully due to Hipwood coming on as well as Walker showing some serious promise towards the end of last year, his position on the list is replaceable.

Remember, a team needs 22 contributors across the ground, so while losing a number 2 kfp is a big loss, even bringing in someone with out as high a potential ceiling as schache, could bring our overall list up more because they fill a more specific need for us, aka a midfielder that compliments what we currently have.

I think this is the difference between going for best available at every draft pick, to actually identifying which parts of the list need improvement, and specifically targeting that position.

 

[POBT]

Point is, we traded out pick 12 for a player who, in my opinion, could still be a bust and even if he isn't, has a fairly low ceiling.

Both of these assertions are completely wrong IMO.

Cameron has been an automatic selection in a very good side. The same level of performance will get him a game with us every week. Unless he is chronically injured or some other dramatic occurrence happens, he simply cannot be a bust.

In terms of his ceiling, the dude kicked a bag and was arguably best on in a preliminary final. That indicates a pretty bloody high ceiling. That was an elite performance in anyone's language

The range we are talking about with Cameron is between a limited production but defensively effective small forward and a genuine gun. I won't enter the argument about which end of the performance spectrum he will be most often at but talk of him being a bust is, quite frankly, silly, as is asserting that he has a "low ceiling". Neither is supported by the evidence.

 

[Skoob]

And given he has only played club footy for 6 years, suggests he's likely yet to find that ceiling.

 

[spotthedog1]

Both of these assertions are completely wrong IMO.

Cameron has been an automatic selection in a very good side.

Just want to highlight this point. Did you actually watch any Crows games this year? He was abysmal through most of the season. Couldn't hit water falling out of a boat. It's one of those ridiculous things where he played a bunch of bad games, then one good one during the finals (PF was an excellent performance, agreed, and GF was acceptable), and people are ignoring that for most of the season, there were serious questions over his game, and Crows fans just about wanted to lynch him...

Now, we want to take him out of a fast paced system where he was hardly accountable as the second small forward in the lineup, and stick him in our forward line, with less opportunity coming out of a worse midfield, and where he is being held by the oppostion's best small defender, and hope he'll reproduce one brilliant game over and over?

He might make the level. He might not. I have severe concerns, and I don't think he has as much development left in him as many others. I may be wrong, and I hope I am. But so might you.

 

[Lazza16]

It depends. Rocky being out hurts us, but he's been in and out for a bit now. Will depend on growth.

I know there are a lot here disappointed with the trade period, but realistically, it won't hurt our short-term performance. On the contrary, getting Hodge and Cameron in will probably more than offset the loss of Rocky.

Sadly, trade periods like this one will harm our long term potential though, so be prepared for us to hit finals in 2-3 years time, but not progress very high, before heading back for another rebuild. In which case, a priority pick will not be forthcoming.

Minister for Gloom n Doom.

 

[LongLion]

Just want to highlight this point. Did you actually watch any Crows games this year? He was abysmal through most of the season. Couldn't hit water falling out of a boat. It's one of those ridiculous things where he played a bunch of bad games, then one good one during the finals (PF was an excellent performance, agreed, and GF was acceptable), and people are ignoring that for most of the season, there were serious questions over his game, and Crows fans just about wanted to lynch him...

Now, we want to take him out of a fast paced system where he was hardly accountable as the second small forward in the lineup, and stick him in our forward line, with less opportunity coming out of a worse midfield, and where he is being held by the oppostion's best small defender, and hope he'll reproduce one brilliant game over and over?

He might make the level. He might not. I have severe concerns, and I don't think he has as much development left in him as many others. I may be wrong, and I hope I am. But so might you.

Glass half empty view that's for sure

 

[POBT]

Just want to highlight this point. Did you actually watch any Crows games this year?

Yep. He applied huge amounts of defensive pressure. That’s why he got a game. Adelaide didn’t make a grand final by playing a bloke every week who was a “bust”.

If you measure a small forward’s role purely by what he does with ball in hand these days then you are missing at least half the picture. It is a limited and therefore inaccurate POV.

 

[JasperBeardly]

Now, we want to take him out of a fast paced system where he was hardly accountable as the second small forward in the lineup, and stick him in our forward line, with less opportunity coming out of a worse midfield, and where he is being held by the oppostion's best small defender, and hope he'll reproduce one brilliant game over and over?

Based on what the club has said, I think the intent is to play him mainly on a wing to try and use his pace and run and carry to maximum effect.

 

[Hollow Knight]

Can't help but think that SuperCoach culture and/or the fascination with Champion Data's approach to stats gathering has helped embed a very narrow and incomplete framework for assessing player impact in the minds of many.

I think that effect is magnified even more so for the nature of the defensive small forward role in the current state of the game.

 

[Judge]

Just want to highlight this point. Did you actually watch any Crows games this year? He was abysmal through most of the season. Couldn't hit water falling out of a boat. It's one of those ridiculous things where he played a bunch of bad games, then one good one during the finals (PF was an excellent performance, agreed, and GF was acceptable), and people are ignoring that for most of the season, there were serious questions over his game, and Crows fans just about wanted to lynch him...

Now, we want to take him out of a fast paced system where he was hardly accountable as the second small forward in the lineup, and stick him in our forward line, with less opportunity coming out of a worse midfield, and where he is being held by the oppostion's best small defender, and hope he'll reproduce one brilliant game over and over?

He might make the level. He might not. I have severe concerns, and I don't think he has as much development left in him as many others. I may be wrong, and I hope I am. But so might you.

Just out of interest Spot, have you played any footy yourself, or coached?

Sure, everyone's entitled to an opinion but yours above are incredibly different to mine, and like you I have watched a lot of Adelaide games in recent years.

How would you have rated Cameron at the end of 2016?

 

[spotthedog1]

Yep. He applied huge amounts of defensive pressure. That’s why he got a game. Adelaide didn’t make a grand final by playing a bloke every week who was a “bust”.

If you measure a small forward’s role purely by what he does with ball in hand these days then you are missing at least half the picture. It is a limited and therefore inaccurate POV.

Fair point, and I agree that his defensive pressure was quite good. But that's only one side of the equation.

How's this for a comparison. Jake Barrett was both good and bad for us in 2017. Great defensive pressure, but not quite so much with the ball in hand. Still quite young (a year younger than Charlie), so some development left (especially because, before this year he hadn't really had a shot at AFL level), and I think he retained his spot on our list because of defensive pressure.

Barrett: 17 games, 15 goals, 11 behinds (58% conversion at 0.88 goals per game). 16 clangers (0.94 per game). 82 tackles (4.82 per game)
Cameron: 24 games, 29 goals, 25 behinds (54% conversion at 1.21 goals per game). 34 clangers (1.42 per game). 103 tackles (4.29 per game)
I don't have stats on HTB frees, out on the fulls, etc. If anyone does, that may change the figures. For reference, these stats were grabbed from FootyWire.

I know that stats aren't everything, and I know that our club views Cameron as a potential winger long term. Please, before everyone jumps up and says that I'm ignoring other factors, I know that that's still only a small portion of the story. But it tells you what my concern is.

We paid a rookie pick for Barrett, and he was canned around here a bit, but really, he maintained his spot on defensive pressure. We paid pick 12 for Cameron. He had more goals per game, but realistically had better delivery. He also was a worse shot for goal than Barrett, made less tackles per game, and made more clangers than Barrett. That's despite him having 49 games experience before the season started, compared to Barrett's one.

Still, if you ask me which player I'd rather have on our list, the answer would be Cameron, because the stats really are just a small part of the story. But if you tell me that we would get Barrett for a rookie spot, and then Cameron with pick 12, I'd say we just wasted pick 12.