The problem for left wing politics in Australia

[its free real estate]

From The Australian:

Religious communities across western Sydney have punished Labor, with the growing concerns around religious freedoms swinging votes towards the Liberal Party in the traditional ALP heartland.​

​

While the statewide swing towards the Coalition in NSW was less than half a per cent, key seats in western Sydney recorded swings above 5 per cent towards the government, overlapping with areas of high religious observance, migrant population, and majority ‘‘no’’ votes during the same-sex marriage survey.​

The notable feature of the SSM results was the strong opposition to it in Western Sydney, one of the Labor's historically strongest set of electorates. Western Sydney features a higher than average group of social conservatives, mostly made up of immigrant groups from the conservative Catholic and Muslim world.

In Banks, held by Liberal David Coleman by 1.4 per cent going into Saturday’s election, the Immigration Minister retained the seat with a 5.3 per cent swing.​

​

Banks, with large Chinese, Nepalese and Vietnamese populations, where 24 per cent of residents say they are Catholic, voted 55.1 per cent ‘‘no’’ in the same-sex marriage survey.​

​

Banks was a Labor electorate for 64 years until 2013, and Coleman now holds his biggest margin. It had a slim margin of below 2% prior to this election - it should have been a Labor gain. Did franking credits / negative gearing create a swing to the Coalition? Or was it something else?

From news.com.au

One of the daftest and most self-indulgent features of the campaign was the Adani convoy of Greens leaders who drove to central Queensland full of moral superiority. All they did was further convince locals the anti-mine movement was part of a Labor/Greens plot against them.​

While Labor had little to do with this convoy of campaigners, they are tainted by past associations with the Greens, and the understanding that they may have to govern with them in future parliaments. The people of Queensland obviously saw a Labor government undermining their economic future, in league with the Greens.

Labor are in a bit of a bind. If they make overtures to the socially conservative outer suburban working class, they risk leaking votes and inner city seats to the Greens. If they try to retain socially progressive voters and appeal to them on environment and social justice issues, they lose the large bloc of socially conservative but economically socialist people in Australia.

The obvious path to government is eschewing the Greens vote, letting preferences flow to the ALP regardless, and wearing the loss of inner city seats. But this path most likely requires forming a governing coalition with the Greens, thereby tainting them in the eyes of the aforementioned bloc of voters.

IMO the Labor party need to kill the Greens like they did the DLP. I don't know how they do this, but it is the only sustainable path to forming and holding government.

 

[TimmeT]

left is decisive.

 

[Gough]

The problem for left wing politics in Australia is that they're held to a completely different standard. If the press had reported on this government as they had the R/G/R years we'd have a Labor government today.
In before "nice melt".

 

[its free real estate]

The problem for left wing politics in Australia is that they're held to a completely different standard. If the press had reported on this government as they had the R/G/R years we'd have a Labor government today.
In before "nice melt".

Your lack of perception on these matters is noted.

 

[its free real estate]

I will add that if there is a severe economic downturn in Australia, all bets are off. But so long as economic conditions are mild to good, Labor will struggle to form government.

 

[Chief]

The problem for left wing politics in Australia is that they're held to a completely different standard. If the press had reported on this government as they had the R/G/R years we'd have a Labor government today.
In before "nice melt".

Expose corruption by Conservative party and it’s “You’re making it hard to just get business done!”

Expose sexual harassment and assault by conservatives and “It’s such a difficult time to be a man!”

Expose racism by conservatives and it’s “why do you hate white people?”

Expose any of these on the left?

“Typical corrupt lefties! Vote LNP!”

 

[its free real estate]

"If it wasn't for the umpires, we'd have won by 10 goals"

 

[Gough]

Expose corruption by Conservative party and it’s “You’re making it hard to just get business done!”

Expose sexual harassment and assault by conservatives and “It’s such a difficult time to be a man!”

Expose racism by conservatives and it’s “why do you hate white people?”

Expose any of these on the left?

“Typical corrupt lefties! Vote LNP!”

Looks like you too are lacking in perception.

 

[its free real estate]

Looks like you too are lacking in perception.

So how do you think the ALP forms government?

 

[Mofra]

I will add that if there is a severe economic downturn in Australia, all bets are off. But so long as economic conditions are mild to good, Labor will struggle to form government.

Inverted yield curve in the US right now - not sure the existing economic climate survives for much longer, before we consider the possibility of the impact of the US-China trade war, Brexit and now Trump's sabre-rattling towards Iran.

 

[its free real estate]

Inverted yield curve in the US right now - not sure the existing economic climate survives for much longer, before we consider the possibility of the impact of the US-China trade war, Brexit and now Trump's sabre-rattling towards Iran.

The only issue is that if there is a recession the Coalition will probably implement austerity, meaning it will be very painful for a lot of people.

 

[Chief]

Inverted yield curve in the US right now - not sure the existing economic climate survives for much longer, before we consider the possibility of the impact of the US-China trade war, Brexit and now Trump's sabre-rattling towards Iran.

Hopefully Scummo navigates it. If not, hopefully him an his ideology cop the blame.

 

[Mofra]

The only issue is that if there is a recession the Coalition will probably implement austerity, meaning it will be very painful for a lot of people.

They might hedge their bets - last time Rudd utilised Treasury (Henry & Stevens) advice which was that aggregate demand needed to be supported, and quickly.
Morrison may well do the same, especially considering countries that implemented austerity measures post-GFC had far longer, slower and more painful recoveries.

 

[its free real estate]

They might hedge their bets - last time Rudd utilised Treasury (Henry & Stevens) advice which was that aggregate demand needed to be supported, and quickly.
Morrison may well do the same, especially considering countries that implemented austerity measures post-GFC had far longer, slower and more painful recoveries.

I think they'd take the opportunity to implement their ideology, selling it as necessary reform, rather than attempting to smooth out the business cycle. I don't think they'd care about what did or didn't work overseas.

 

[Mofra]

Hopefully Scummo navigates it. If not, hopefully him an his ideology cop the blame.

The people most affected would likely be the blue collar base that supported the Libs. The messaging would be just as interesting as the policy.

If/When Adani falls over (as it is likely to now it's a 10k rather than 50k capacity mine) it will be just as interesting to see how it all plays out. I suspect Palmer gets a mine up somewhere to provide some national narrative on jobs.

 

[Seeds]

From The Australian:

Religious communities across western Sydney have punished Labor, with the growing concerns around religious freedoms swinging votes towards the Liberal Party in the traditional ALP heartland.​

​

While the statewide swing towards the Coalition in NSW was less than half a per cent, key seats in western Sydney recorded swings above 5 per cent towards the government, overlapping with areas of high religious observance, migrant population, and majority ‘‘no’’ votes during the same-sex marriage survey.​

The notable feature of the SSM results was the strong opposition to it in Western Sydney, one of the Labor's historically strongest set of electorates. Western Sydney features a higher than average group of social conservatives, mostly made up of immigrant groups from the conservative Catholic and Muslim world.

In Banks, held by Liberal David Coleman by 1.4 per cent going into Saturday’s election, the Immigration Minister retained the seat with a 5.3 per cent swing.​

​

Banks, with large Chinese, Nepalese and Vietnamese populations, where 24 per cent of residents say they are Catholic, voted 55.1 per cent ‘‘no’’ in the same-sex marriage survey.​

​

Banks was a Labor electorate for 64 years until 2013, and Coleman now holds his biggest margin. It had a slim margin of below 2% prior to this election - it should have been a Labor gain. Did franking credits / negative gearing create a swing to the Coalition? Or was it something else?

From news.com.au

One of the daftest and most self-indulgent features of the campaign was the Adani convoy of Greens leaders who drove to central Queensland full of moral superiority. All they did was further convince locals the anti-mine movement was part of a Labor/Greens plot against them.​

While Labor had little to do with this convoy of campaigners, they are tainted by past associations with the Greens, and the understanding that they may have to govern with them in future parliaments. The people of Queensland obviously saw a Labor government undermining their economic future, in league with the Greens.

Labor are in a bit of a bind. If they make overtures to the socially conservative outer suburban working class, they risk leaking votes and inner city seats to the Greens. If they try to retain socially progressive voters and appeal to them on environment and social justice issues, they lose the large bloc of socially conservative but economically socialist people in Australia.

The obvious path to government is eschewing the Greens vote, letting preferences flow to the ALP regardless, and wearing the loss of inner city seats. But this path most likely requires forming a governing coalition with the Greens, thereby tainting them in the eyes of the aforementioned bloc of voters.

IMO the Labor party need to kill the Greens like they did the DLP. I don't know how they do this, but it is the only sustainable path to forming and holding government.

Shorten was highly religious and had all the catholics on his side given the libs tried to take away their school subsidies and he promised to give them back.

SSM also won easily despite all religions being against it.

Religion is not why Shorten lost.

 

[its free real estate]

Shorten was highly religious and had all the catholics on his side given the libs tried to take away their school subsidies and he promised to give them back.

SSM also won easily despite all religions being against it.

Religion is not why Shorten lost.

I never said religion was why Shorten lost. I said social conservatism in what should notionally be Labor voters is why the ALP will struggle to form a majority.

I don't expect someone who thinks bestiality should be legal to understand this.

 

[Pommie Docker]

Difficult to know what drives the voting in the burbs as I don't live there. To me, things like religious freedom are made up issues when not a single policy of labors would have affected it but there are obviously strong scare campaigns - see the death tax. I think you have a point with the greens stuff and adani, it just doesn't resonate with your average punter.

From The Australian:

Religious communities across western Sydney have punished Labor, with the growing concerns around religious freedoms swinging votes towards the Liberal Party in the traditional ALP heartland.​

​

While the statewide swing towards the Coalition in NSW was less than half a per cent, key seats in western Sydney recorded swings above 5 per cent towards the government, overlapping with areas of high religious observance, migrant population, and majority ‘‘no’’ votes during the same-sex marriage survey.​

The notable feature of the SSM results was the strong opposition to it in Western Sydney, one of the Labor's historically strongest set of electorates. Western Sydney features a higher than average group of social conservatives, mostly made up of immigrant groups from the conservative Catholic and Muslim world.

In Banks, held by Liberal David Coleman by 1.4 per cent going into Saturday’s election, the Immigration Minister retained the seat with a 5.3 per cent swing.​

​

Banks, with large Chinese, Nepalese and Vietnamese populations, where 24 per cent of residents say they are Catholic, voted 55.1 per cent ‘‘no’’ in the same-sex marriage survey.​

​

Banks was a Labor electorate for 64 years until 2013, and Coleman now holds his biggest margin. It had a slim margin of below 2% prior to this election - it should have been a Labor gain. Did franking credits / negative gearing create a swing to the Coalition? Or was it something else?

From news.com.au

One of the daftest and most self-indulgent features of the campaign was the Adani convoy of Greens leaders who drove to central Queensland full of moral superiority. All they did was further convince locals the anti-mine movement was part of a Labor/Greens plot against them.​

While Labor had little to do with this convoy of campaigners, they are tainted by past associations with the Greens, and the understanding that they may have to govern with them in future parliaments. The people of Queensland obviously saw a Labor government undermining their economic future, in league with the Greens.

Labor are in a bit of a bind. If they make overtures to the socially conservative outer suburban working class, they risk leaking votes and inner city seats to the Greens. If they try to retain socially progressive voters and appeal to them on environment and social justice issues, they lose the large bloc of socially conservative but economically socialist people in Australia.

The obvious path to government is eschewing the Greens vote, letting preferences flow to the ALP regardless, and wearing the loss of inner city seats. But this path most likely requires forming a governing coalition with the Greens, thereby tainting them in the eyes of the aforementioned bloc of voters.

IMO the Labor party need to kill the Greens like they did the DLP. I don't know how they do this, but it is the only sustainable path to forming and holding government.

 

[Seeds]

I never said religion was why Shorten lost. I said social conservatism in what should notionally be Labor voters is why the ALP will struggle to form a majority.

I don't expect someone who thinks bestiality should be legal to understand this.

Identity politics is labours problem.

Also a perceived attack on baby boomers and an incorrect belief that pricing carbon costs a lot.

 

[its free real estate]

Difficult to know what drives the voting in the burbs as I don't live there. To me, things like religious freedom are made up issues when not a single policy of labors would have affected it but there are obviously strong scare campaigns - see the death tax. I think you have a point with the greens stuff and adani, it just doesn't resonate with your average punter.

I don't think it's "religious freedom" or religion as such, there's some heavy massaging in The Australian piece with that angle. But I do think there is a deep seated social conservatism in many populations around Australia who aren't what you'd call classical Coalition voters.

That is, people who are low income wage earners, who may or may not be white Australians, who may or may not be religious, are choosing to not vote Labor because they are turned off by some element of progressive politics, which is antithetical to their view of the world to a greater degree than Labor can help them with their material conditions.

tl;dr Baizuo politics do not appeal to anyone except the small class of people who are Baizuo.

 

[GoldenSky]

Identity politics is labours problem.

Yep.

Two core problems for Labor:
* Identity politics is poison outside inner city Melb, Syd and wealthy suburbs of Sydney.
* Labor is now associated with targeting savings, assets. NEVER argue that you think capital is taxed too lightly in this country - no one wants a socialist coming after their hard earned savings!!

 

[GoldenSky]

Expose corruption by Conservative party and it’s “You’re making it hard to just get business done!”

Expose sexual harassment and assault by conservatives and “It’s such a difficult time to be a man!”

Expose racism by conservatives and it’s “why do you hate white people?”

Expose any of these on the left?

“Typical corrupt lefties! Vote LNP!”

Oh c'mon - this identity politics stuff is one of the reasons why Bill lost.

Fact: The left wing mainstream TV media has talked NON-STOP about the Libs and their sexism/women problem. As for sexual harassment and assault, I need not remind you of allegations on the left that were NEVER talked about on the mainstream media. So this theory of yours doesn't stack up.

 

[Caesar]

Banks is an interesting electorate but I'd hazard to guess that it's shifting result has a lot to do with it being repeatedly redistributed eastwards.

The 2016 Census results make for interesting reading though. We all talk about Western Sydney voters like they're still 'Howard's battlers', but the region has changed so much in the last 20 years. Heck, I still treat everything northwest of Ryde as happy-clappy country but that's changing too:

https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw...belt-is-losing-the-faith-20171004-gyuecs.html

 

[skilts]

Australia has never had, nor will it ever have, a left-wing government. The A.L.P. is actually situated half-way between the far right and the middle ground. Always has been. For instance. their embrace and continuance of the White Australia policy, for more than sixty years, born out of of their fear of the Kanakas and Chinese undermining pay for whites. Add to that their total disregard for the appalling wages (read non-existent) and conditions of Aborigines on cattle stations. This lack of interest usually meant that rapacious multi-nationals were able to exploit our most vulnerable, with gay abandon.

During WWII, a Labor government, under Curtin, ceded Australia's sovereignty to an American neo-fascist, MacArthur. This was because Curtin understood literally nothing about how to conduct a war, and so, washed his hands of its prosecution.

The arch-conservative D.L.P. had its origins as an offshoot of the A.L.P. Unlike in the other states, the N.S.W. right never split from the A.L.P. during the 50s, which means the successors of those rabid right-wingers' still rule the roost in that branch. It is unfathomable why a party with pretensions to being left-wing would allow that bunch of vicious and amoral number crunchers to exercise the disproportionate influence nationally that they do.

It is difficult, if not impossible, to visualise a revitalised/regurgitated Communist Party. The Greens will never rule in their own right (pun untended) because of their narrow focus and appeal. There appears to be no other party or organisation on the horizon, of the required persuasion, which might achieve such an outcome.

Not sure whether that's a good or bad thing, but it would take a seismic shift in the electorate's attitudes for there ever to be a left-wing majority in the lower house.

 

[its free real estate]

Banks is an interesting electorate but I'd hazard to guess that it's shifting result has a lot to do with it being repeatedly redistributed eastwards.

The 2016 Census results make for interesting reading though. We all talk about Western Sydney voters like they're still 'Howard's battlers', but the region has changed so much in the last 20 years. Heck, I still treat everything northwest of Ryde as happy-clappy country but that's changing too:

https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw...belt-is-losing-the-faith-20171004-gyuecs.html

Redistribution is always a factor, but the swings happened in other Western Sydney electorates, Labor simply has a strong enough margin to resist.

This post on Twitter is interesting. Almost every Western Sydney booth swung to the Libs except in the mostly white working class Campbelltown region.