Preview The race to 15 wins, and is 15 wins enough.

[go_the_dockers]

The below teams are on 11 wins, plus Brisbane. I can see all clubs getting to 15 wins, and one unlucky club missing out on percentage. ​

Round 24 - Freo vs Bulldogs could be the decider.

​

Brisbane Lions​

• Round 19 – Fri 18 July vs. Western Bulldogs @ The Gabba
• Round 20 – Fri 25 July vs. Gold Coast Suns @ People First Stadium
• Round 21 – Sat 2 August vs. Collingwood @ MCG
• Round 22 – Fri 8 August vs. Sydney @ The Gabba
• Round 23 – Fri 15 August vs. Fremantle @ Optus Stadium
• Round 24 – Fri 22 to Sun 24 August vs. Hawthorn @ The Gabba (day/time TBC)

6 50/50 games. Very very tough last 6 weeks. It is hard to see Brisbane not getting 15, but they do have a very tough run.

Geelong Cats​

• Round 19 (July 20) vs. St Kilda @ GMHBA Stadium
• Round 20 (July 26) vs. North Melbourne @ Marvel Stadium
• Round 21 (Sun 3 Aug) vs. Port Adelaide @ GMHBA Stadium
• Round 22 (Aug 8) vs. Essendon @ GMHBA Stadium
• Round 23 (Aug 17) vs. Sydney Swans @ SCG
• Round 24 (Fri 22 – Sun 24 Aug) vs. Richmond Tigers @ MCG (exact day/time TBC)

Clearly have an easy run. Should easily get to 15.

---

Gold Coast Suns​

• Round 19 (July 20) vs. Adelaide Crows @ Adelaide Oval
• Round 20 (July 26) vs. Brisbane Lions @ People First Stadium
• Round 21 – Saturday, 2 August 2025 vs. Richmond Tigers @ People First Stadium, 4:10 PM AEST
• Round 22 (Aug 9) vs. Carlton @ Marvel Stadium
• Round 23 (Aug 16) vs. GWS Giants @ People First Stadium
• Round 24 (Aug 22‑24) vs. port Adelaide away.
• Rescheduled Opening‑Round match vs. Essendon @ People First Stadium (date/time TBC)

3 games vs top 9 sides. 4 easy games.

The win vs Collingwood was key to their final chances. Win all the easy games and they get to 15 wins.

---

Hawthorn Hawks​

• Round 19 (July 19) vs. Port Adelaide @ UTAS Stadium
• Round 20 (July 24) vs. Carlton @ MCG
• Round 21 – Friday, 1 August 2025 vs. Adelaide Crows @ Adelaide Oval, 7:40 PM AEST
• Round 22 (Aug 7) vs. Collingwood @ MCG
• Round 23 (Aug 16) vs. Melbourne Demons @ MCG
• Round 24 (Aug 22‑24) vs.Brisbane

3 Easy games, 3 very tough games. Win all the easy games plus one more they get to 15 wins.

---

GWS Giants​

• Round 19 (July 17) vs. Essendon @ Marvel Stadium
• Round 20 (July 25) vs. Sydney Swans @ ENGIE Stadium
• Round 21 (July 31) vs. Western Bulldogs @ Marvel Stadium
• Round 22 (Aug 9) vs. North Melbourne @ Manuka Oval
• Round 23 (Aug 16) vs. Gold Coast Suns @ People First Stadium
• Round 24 (Aug 22‑24) vs. St Kilda @ ENGIE Stadium

The win vs Geelong was key. 4 easy games, and two 40/40 games vs Bulldogs and Sydney.

Win the easy games and they get to 15

Remaining Fixture – Western Bulldogs​

• Round 19 • Friday, 18 July — Brisbane vs Western Bulldogs @ The Gabba, 7:40 pm
• Round 20 • Friday, 25 July — Essendon vs Western Bulldogs @ Marvel Stadium, 7:20 pm
• Round 21 • Thursday, 31 July — Western Bulldogs vs GWS Giants @ Marvel Stadium, 7:30 pm
• Round 22 • Sunday, 10 August — Melbourne vs Western Bulldogs @ MCG, 3:20 pm
• Round 23 • Sunday, 17 August — Western Bulldogs vs West Coast Eagles @ Marvel Stadium, 4:40 pm
• Round 24 • Saturday, 23 August — Western Bulldogs vs Fremantle @ Marvel Stadium (time TBC)

Bulldogs need 5 wins, to get to 15. 3 easy games, 3 tough games.

It may come down to round 24, to see who makes it.

Fremantle Dockers​

• Round 19 – Sunday 20 July 2025 vs. Collingwood @ MCG, 3:15 PM AEST
• Round 20 – Saturday 26 July 2025 vs. West Coast Eagles @ Optus Stadium, 4:15 PM AEST
• Round 21 – Sunday 3 August 2025 vs. Carlton @ Optus Stadium, 5:10 PM AEST
• Round 22 – Saturday 9 August 2025 vs. Port Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval, 8:10 PM AEST
• Round 23 – Friday 15 August 2025 vs. Brisbane Lions @ Optus Stadium, 8:20 PM AEST
• Round 24 – Aug 22–24 (TBC) vs. Western Bulldogs @ Marvel Stadium—time yet to be confirmed

3 easy games including Port away. That is 100% must win.
Tough away games vs Collingwood and Bulldogs, and a tough home game vs Brisbane.

We need to win at least one of these tough games to get to 15, and even then we could be unlucky and miss finals with 15 wins.

 

[mattis117]

Squiggle over rates the dogs because they smash the crap teams.

Anyhow, definitely need 15 wins to be sure, and incredibly, 16 could snag a top four spot. Crazy season.

 

[estibador]

Wow that's a brutal run home for Brissie. They'll probably still make it but glad it's not us.

Meanwhile Geelong being gifted their usual soft draw by the AFL. I'm surprised they didn't find a way to let them play Richmond three times this year.

 

[go_the_dockers]

Squiggle over rates the dogs because they smash the crap teams.

Anyhow, definitely need 15 wins to be sure, and incredibly, 16 could snag a top four spot. Crazy season.

3 wins vs the bottom 10 sides and they are on 14 with a good percentage.

Then they have Freo, GWS and Brisbane and they could easily get 1 win from those 3. It is very unusual year, if all 5 sides get to 15 wins, someone will be very unlucky.

 

[Wray27]

Here is the afl app ladder predictor autofill option. It is simply teams who are higher on the ladder winning over teams lower.

 

[Serongnthnks4allthefish]

If we can get somewhat back to full strength I could see it happening. The only games that are a worry would be the Pies and Dogs. Lions could be, but I like our chances if Young is back.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

If we miss on 15 wins id probably give up tbh. Thats ****ed

 

[BStaff17]

If we miss on 15 wins id probably give up tbh. Thats ****ed

I can see us missing on 14 wins.

But not 15 wins - it will be enough

You basically need the Dogs to win 5 from 6 i reckon they only win 4.

And if they did win 5 games. It would mean GWS lose or we beat the Dogs and that is beneficial if we got to 15 wins

 

[BStaff17]

Ironically if we beat Collingwood next week the conversation changes from will we sneak into the 8 to could we make the 4.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

Ironically if we beat Collingwood next week the conversation changes from will we sneak into the 8 to could we make the 4.

Im also delusional enough to think we have a sniff as well. 7 of 8 now, good away wins against good teams in that run. Collingwood just going through the motions a bit and Freos favourtie nothing to lose type game...

 

[Joao]

Im also delusional enough to think we have a sniff as well. 7 of 8 now, good away wins against good teams in that run. Collingwood just going through the motions a bit and Freos favourtie nothing to lose type game...

 

[go_the_dockers]

If we miss on 15 wins id probably give up tbh. Thats ****ed

I can see the Bulldogs on 14 wins, us on 15 wins going into the last round and us needing to win to make finals.

If we win, we finish top 4

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

Man, I got you to post something again, now I just need to get mike91 to say something nice about Johnson and ill have truly conquered Bigfooty posting.

 

[Cobbler]

Ironically if we beat Collingwood next week the conversation changes from will we sneak into the 8 to could we make the 4.

If we beat Collingwood next week we’d have as solid an argument as any other team to be a premiership threat to the Pies themselves.

Wins at home v Dogs, Crows, Hawks
Wins away v GWS, Gold Coast

That’s a solid record against other finalists. Possibly best in the comp?

Real shame we couldn’t pinch one of those 2 losses against Swans.

 

[Wray27]

Man, I got you to post something again, now I just need to get mike91 to say something nice about Johnson and ill have truly conquered Bigfooty posting.

Haha. Does Mike91 ever post anything positive. I actually don’t know anymore as I have him on ignore.

 

[mike91]

Man, I got you to post something again, now I just need to get mike91 to say something nice about Johnson and ill have truly conquered Bigfooty posting.

I liked his first kick of the night to set up Amiss.

And his quantity of tackles.

That's all I got though mate

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

I liked his first kick of the night to set up Amiss.

And his quantity of tackles.

That's all I got though mate

 

[Feathercap]

The below teams are on 11 wins, plus Brisbane. I can see all clubs getting to 15 wins, and one unlucky club missing out on percentage. ​

Round 24 - Freo vs Bulldogs could be the decider.

​

Brisbane Lions​

• Round 19 – Fri 18 July vs. Western Bulldogs @ The Gabba
• Round 20 – Fri 25 July vs. Gold Coast Suns @ People First Stadium
• Round 21 – Sat 2 August vs. Collingwood @ MCG
• Round 22 – Fri 8 August vs. Sydney @ The Gabba
• Round 23 – Fri 15 August vs. Fremantle @ Optus Stadium
• Round 24 – Fri 22 to Sun 24 August vs. Hawthorn @ The Gabba (day/time TBC)

6 50/50 games. Very very tough last 6 weeks. It is hard to see Brisbane not getting 15, but they do have a very tough run.

Geelong Cats​

• Round 19 (July 20) vs. St Kilda @ GMHBA Stadium
• Round 20 (July 26) vs. North Melbourne @ Marvel Stadium
• Round 21 (Sun 3 Aug) vs. Port Adelaide @ GMHBA Stadium
• Round 22 (Aug 8) vs. Essendon @ GMHBA Stadium
• Round 23 (Aug 17) vs. Sydney Swans @ SCG
• Round 24 (Fri 22 – Sun 24 Aug) vs. Richmond Tigers @ MCG (exact day/time TBC)

Clearly have an easy run. Should easily get to 15.

---

Gold Coast Suns​

• Round 19 (July 20) vs. Adelaide Crows @ Adelaide Oval
• Round 20 (July 26) vs. Brisbane Lions @ People First Stadium
• Round 21 – Saturday, 2 August 2025 vs. Richmond Tigers @ People First Stadium, 4:10 PM AEST
• Round 22 (Aug 9) vs. Carlton @ Marvel Stadium
• Round 23 (Aug 16) vs. GWS Giants @ People First Stadium
• Round 24 (Aug 22‑24) vs. Melbourne Demons @ People First Stadium (floating weekend)
• Rescheduled Opening‑Round match vs. Essendon @ People First Stadium (date/time TBC)

3 games vs top 9 sides. 4 easy games.

The win vs Collingwood was key to their final chances. Win all the easy games and they get to 15 wins.

---

Hawthorn Hawks​

• Round 19 (July 19) vs. Port Adelaide @ UTAS Stadium
• Round 20 (July 24) vs. Carlton @ MCG
• Round 21 – Friday, 1 August 2025 vs. Adelaide Crows @ Adelaide Oval, 7:40 PM AEST
• Round 22 (Aug 7) vs. Collingwood @ MCG
• Round 23 (Aug 16) vs. Melbourne Demons @ MCG
• Round 24 (Aug 22‑24) vs. North Melbourne @ UTAS Stadium

4 Easy games, 2 very tough games. Win all the easy games they get to 15 wins.

---

GWS Giants​

• Round 19 (July 17) vs. Essendon @ Marvel Stadium
• Round 20 (July 25) vs. Sydney Swans @ ENGIE Stadium
• Round 21 (July 31) vs. Western Bulldogs @ Marvel Stadium
• Round 22 (Aug 9) vs. North Melbourne @ Manuka Oval
• Round 23 (Aug 16) vs. Gold Coast Suns @ People First Stadium
• Round 24 (Aug 22‑24) vs. St Kilda @ ENGIE Stadium

The win vs Geelong was key. 4 easy games, and two 40/40 games vs Bulldogs and Sydney.

Win the easy games and they get to 15

Remaining Fixture – Western Bulldogs​

• Round 19 • Friday, 18 July — Brisbane vs Western Bulldogs @ The Gabba, 7:40 pm
• Round 20 • Friday, 25 July — Essendon vs Western Bulldogs @ Marvel Stadium, 7:20 pm
• Round 21 • Thursday, 31 July — Western Bulldogs vs GWS Giants @ Marvel Stadium, 7:30 pm
• Round 22 • Sunday, 10 August — Melbourne vs Western Bulldogs @ MCG, 3:20 pm
• Round 23 • Sunday, 17 August — Western Bulldogs vs West Coast Eagles @ Marvel Stadium, 4:40 pm
• Round 24 • Saturday, 23 August — Western Bulldogs vs Fremantle @ Marvel Stadium (time TBC)

Bulldogs need 5 wins, to get to 15. 3 easy games, 3 tough games.

It may come down to round 24, to see who makes it.

Fremantle Dockers​

• Round 19 – Sunday 20 July 2025 vs. Collingwood @ MCG, 3:15 PM AEST
• Round 20 – Saturday 26 July 2025 vs. West Coast Eagles @ Optus Stadium, 4:15 PM AEST
• Round 21 – Sunday 3 August 2025 vs. Carlton @ Optus Stadium, 5:10 PM AEST
• Round 22 – Saturday 9 August 2025 vs. Port Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval, 8:10 PM AEST
• Round 23 – Friday 15 August 2025 vs. Brisbane Lions @ Optus Stadium, 8:20 PM AEST
• Round 24 – Aug 22–24 (TBC) vs. Western Bulldogs @ Marvel Stadium—time yet to be confirmed

3 easy games including Port away. That is 100% must win.
Tough away games vs Collingwood and Bulldogs, and a tough home game vs Brisbane.

We need to win at least one of these tough games to get to 15, and even then we could be unlucky and miss finals with 15 wins.



View attachment 2366778

Great post but hawks have Brisbane in round 24?

 

[go_the_dockers]

Great post but hawks have Brisbane in round 24?

All fixtures was from chat GPT. Fixed

 

[dominguez]

The ladder predictor is easy but teams will slip up. The Suns lost to Richmond who were paying $8 earlier in the year.

The Swans would love to knock the Giants over. Port hate the Hawks with the Ginnivan and Rioli stuff and will bring their A game. We have control of our own destiny, beat the Pies and we should be looking at top 4.

It'd be nice to beat the Eagles by 80 and Blues by 50 to narrow that % gap.

 

[Wray27]

All fixtures was from chat GPT. Fixed

Love it. For fun I’m going to ask Copilot who will win the flag this year.

 

[go_the_dockers]

The ladder predictor is easy but teams will slip up. The Suns lost to Richmond who were paying $8 earlier in the year.

The Swans would love to knock the Giants over. Port hate the Hawks with the Ginnivan and Rioli stuff and will bring their A game. We have control of our own destiny, beat the Pies and we should be looking at top 4.

It'd be nice to beat the Eagles by 80 and Blues by 50 to narrow that % gap.

The bottom 8 have dropped off.

There will be the odd one, but they will be infrequent from now on.

Too many teams can't play finals

 

[Purple Suit]

14 wins probably still gets you in. I can see one team imploding with a few key injuries (please not us). 15 will definitely be fine regardless of ladder predictors thinking the top 9 can’t lose a game against the bottom 9.

 

[Paracleet]

14 wins probably still gets you in. I can see one team imploding with a few key injuries (please not us). 15 will definitely be fine regardless of ladder predictors thinking the top 9 can’t lose a game against the bottle 9.

In reality one or two of the teams on 40 or 44 points will drop enough games to ensure 14 wins is enough. It would be extremely unlikely in practice for the favourites to keep winning because even though it is the most likely scenario, there are so many scenarios one them occuring is the most likely actual outcome.

We just have to hope it's not us.

 

[Purple Suit]

In reality one or two of the teams or 40 or 44 points will drop enough games to ensure 14 wins is enough. It would be extremely unlikely in practice for the favourites to keep winning because even though it is the most likely scenario, there are so many scenarios one them occuring is the most likely actual outcome.

We just have to hope it's not us.

Yep,
Strange results happen at the start of a season and at the end. Teams can’t stay up or down forever. I also think when teams have nothing to play for, they can put week of work into getting one big scalp.