Preview The race to 15 wins, and is 15 wins enough.

[DocT]

It's possible. It took me a while, but I managed to juggle the games between the top 9 to come up with this:

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• Brisbane lose at home to Dogs and away to Freo. Beat GC and Pies away, and Hawks at home.
• Dogs win every game including away to Lions and home to GWS, Freo.
• Adelaide two losses at home to GC and Hawks. Beat Pies at home.
• Geelong lose away to Sydney. A win also works, but I've given them a loss to create the ultimate dockery event (see below).
• Pies three losses at G to Freo, Lions, Hawks. Also lose to Crows away.
• GC two losses at home to Brisbane and GWS. Beat Crows away.
• Hawks one loss to Brisbane at Gabba. Beat Crows away and Pies at G.
• GWS one loss to Dogs away. Beat Suns away.
• Freo one loss to Dogs away. Beat Pies at G and Lions at home.

It would be paying astronomical odds, but not impossible.

In this ridiculous scenario, we could finish 1st or 9th depending on the last game againts the Dogs.

This is amazing. U R off the charts. My Centrelink $$ are being well spent.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

In my mind it's still sacksville as that would show just how vast and collosal the gap between the top 8-9 teams and every other team that any and all losses to those bottom 9 would need to be scrutinised far harsher than other years in that context.

16 wins is different, per the scenario, you are talking 1 win being the difference between 1st and 9th and about 6 or 7 teams separated by percentage.

Its not going to happen but if it did, you'd have to give some slack

 

[The Feeder Club]

It's a heavily compromised fixture. Comparing number of wins from one year to another seems unwise, it would be a reasonable benchmark if the fixture was the same from one year to another and each team played the others H&A, but it isn't.

 

[mattis117]

Going back to the original post I think there is a chance that 15 wins would still finish 9th.
We’d be pretty unfortunate in that scenario if we were the side to slip out.

Some percentage vs WCE and Carlton would be nice to try and avoid that! Just need to get our percentage above Hawks.

 

[Bigger]

It's a heavily compromised fixture. Comparing number of wins from one year to another seems unwise, it would be a reasonable benchmark if the fixture was the same from one year to another and each team played the others H&A, but it isn't.

It's just gonna get worse as well - when Stokes and Murdoch want their money's worth. They don't want North Melbourne playing Gold Coast or Fremantle playing Greater Western Sydney or any of the other potential juicy match-ups of the next couple of years. They want the Pies, Geebung and the Blues printing money for the rest of eternity.

 

[Piggy Smalls]

16 wins is different, per the scenario, you are talking 1 win being the difference between 1st and 9th and about 6 or 7 teams separated by percentage.

Its not going to happen but if it did, you'd have to give some slack

100%. If we get to 16 wins it means we've beaten six of the other 8 teams in contention (plus one of them twice) or we've beaten 7 of them, with the exception being Geelong in round 1.

If we sack the coach after that I'll eat a steaming dog shit and post the evidence here.

 

[DocT]

100%. If we get to 16 wins it means we've beaten six of the other 8 teams in contention (plus one of them twice) or we've beaten 7 of them, with the exception being Geelong in round 1.

If we sack the coach after that I'll eat a steaming dog shit and post the evidence here.

 

[freo84]

We just need to smash a few teams like West Coast and Carlton.

Replicate that last quarter and we will bury teams. It was the best I've seen us play this year.

 

[Piggy Smalls]

We just need to smash a few teams like West Coast and Carlton.

Replicate that last quarter and we will bury teams. It was the best I've seen us play this year.

I heard it was because the brave Hawks ran out of puff

 

[freo84]

I heard it was because the brave Hawks ran out of puff

They ran out of free kicks

 

[Taylor]

I heard it was because the brave Hawks ran out of puff

Both can be true at once. Footy is a four quarter game and grinds players down. We don't commit the same amount of effort as the opposition so we can step it up in the last and run over them - so be it.

 

[Piggy Smalls]

Both can be true at once. Footy is a four quarter game and grinds players down. We don't commit the same amount of effort as the opposition so we can step it up in the last and run over them - so be it.

Except if we run out of puff we don't get called brave, we just get told that our coach is a dud.

 

[2big2strom]

I think we are a very good chance this week. JLO & the boys won't like that we have lost twice to Sydney in the same season. Because we have lost to Pies already this season there will be a lot of extra prep work and mistakes fixed. Even then, last game against them, it was inaccuracy that cost us.

The following round, I think we should be good for the derby. The eagles will use all their energy this weekend scrapping for a second win (and likely last chance for a win this season) at home against the Tiges. They will be cooked for the derby, might make a contest of it until half time and then Lukey Ryan will just play keepy off to knock the wind out of their sails.

This team in the last 8 weeks have proven they can be very punishing, very quickly and they can pull this trigger right up until the dying seconds of the game. Would be delightful to give the Pies a taste of their own medicine at the G

 

[88mph]

Port vs Suns last round, surely the team send Ken off with a win?

 

[Bud]

I don't think we lose a game from here.. beat Collingwood and belief will be increased exponentially to carry us to a flag this year

 

[BStaff17]

I think if we can win this week

We will make the top 4 thats how tight and crucial these 4 points actually are.

 

[ubiquitous226]

I think if we can win this week

We will make the top 4 thats how tight and crucial these 4 points actually are.

If we win every single game from here, and the favourites won all of their games then we could finish fourth.

For it to be any real chance we need Brisbane and Gold Coast to drop some tight games, and there's no real chance we could catch Collingwood / Adelaide / Geelong without some reasonably big upsets.

14 wins really looks like it might not be enough to make finals with our percentage this year.

 

[Paracleet]

If we win every single game from here, and the favourites won all of their games then we could finish fourth.

For it to be any real chance we need Brisbane and Gold Coast to drop some tight games, and there's no real chance we could catch Collingwood / Adelaide / Geelong without some reasonably big upsets.

14 wins really looks like it might not be enough to make finals with our percentage this year.

To cite the Squiggle again, at this point 14 wins is 50/50 to make the finals even with the lowest %.

 

[Piggy Smalls]

I want Brisbane to win tonight so we finish the weekend in the top 8 regardless of whether we win or not. However, the silver lining if the Dogs win will be that top 4 opens up ever so slightly if we are good enough.

 

[ubiquitous226]

To cite the Squiggle again, at this point 14 wins is 50/50 to make the finals even with the lowest %.

Squiggle is a great tool, and as we get closer to the end of the season the win totals will be more meaningful, but given the way the models work the number of wins it predicts aren't that useful to draw conclusions on what we'd need to get in

It will usually over predict total wins of the lower teams and under predict the total of the upper teams.
In the case of this specific year and this close to the end it'll be about right, the bottom team in the 8 is highly likely to have 14 or 15 wins.

 

[Piggy Smalls]

Squiggle is a great tool, and as we get closer to the end of the season the win totals will be more meaningful, but given the way the models work the number of wins it predicts aren't that useful to draw conclusions on what we'd need to get in

It will usually over predict total wins of the lower teams and under predict the total of the upper teams.
In the case of this specific year and this close to the end it'll be about right, the bottom team in the 8 is highly likely to have 14 or 15 wins.

What I don't understand about the squiggle is how we have won 7 of our last 8 games yet we are 8th or 9th in the power rankings. Bulldogs haven't beaten anyone of note all season, and they're second

 

[freo84]

What I don't understand about the squiggle is how we have won 7 of our last 8 games yet we are 8th or 9th in the power rankings. Bulldogs haven't beaten anyone of note all season, and they're second

I'm pretty sure scoring is highly valued.

 

[Piggy Smalls]

I'm pretty sure scoring is highly valued.

More than winning, it would appear

 

[freo84]

More than winning, it would appear

I agree with u. But I didn't write the algorithm lol.

 

[wakojako]

I think if we can win this week

We will make the top 4 thats how tight and crucial these 4 points actually are.

If you play around with the ladder predictor, even if we win against Collingwood the best we can finish is 7/8th depending on if the other results go our way (and my predictions are optimistic).