Mega Thread The Random Thoughts Thread Part 2: Electric Portaloo

[PAFC04]

It won't be the only offer I get. Trust me. If he really wants it he can pony up the extra &100 or so.

let me know how you go on this....

I basing my opinion on that you want to sell, but if you don't.... then hold out or tell him to bid for it to see if he is serious or not.

Whats the min bid?

 

[raman]

Number plate spotted on the South Eastern Freeway tonight: FLYAZ1

You'll be surprised to know the driver was a white-haired lady.

 

[StuMan]

 

[StuMan]

 

[raman]

This must be great news for Trump once the mysterious Forzaport algorithm is applied.

 

[Forzaport]

View attachment 298750

This must be great news for Trump once the mysterious Forzaport algorithm is applied.

So after all that has happened in the past 72 hours, Trump's campaign supposedly being dead, the lead is only 11 points? And that fills you with confidence for a Clinton victory?

Clinton had a 17 point lead over Sanders in the polls in Michigan, and lost.

Polling was also seriously off in the Brexit vote, the Scottish referendum and the most recent UK election.

The data isn't as reliable these days and I stand by my prediction that the silent Trump voter is real and has been largely missed by the pollsters.

Less than 1 month to go. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. I have no issue with a Clinton presidency, I just don't think she'll win.

 

[JimmyBeerCans]

Trump will lose in record setting fashion

 

[Schulzenfest]

Trump would lose in a landslide under a compulsory voting system. Under the US system, hard to say. There are a lot of passionate crazies out there, especially in the US.

 

[Dylan8]

Trump would lose in a landslide under a compulsory voting system. Under the US system, hard to say. There are a lot of passionate crazies out there, especially in the US.

Trump fans are more notable because they're funny, they're all over the internet and news saying dumb shit, so you think there's more of them. Hillary has a shit load of fanatics too, the woman president thing is a huge angle.

 

[Steve Dore]

Trump will lose in record setting fashion

I will not be at all surprised if he wins.

 

[raman]

So after all that has happened in the past 72 hours, Trump's campaign supposedly being dead, the lead is only 11 points? And that fills you with confidence for a Clinton victory?

The 1988 election had an 8.8% margin. That translated to an electoral college win of 426 to 111; a landslide by any definition.

But no, I'm not filled with confidence by an 11 point margin in two recent isolated polls. I'm filled with confidence by a 4.6 point margin the most conservative of the three forecasts by the poll averaging model which predicted the 2008 result to 96% accuracy and the 2012 result to 100% accuracy.

Clinton had a 17 point lead over Sanders in the polls in Michigan, and lost.

Again, primaries are a totally different kettle of fish, and can be influenced heavily by hype and acute momentum (like that of, oh, say, a Sanders or a Trump) in a way that general presidential elections are not.

Polling was also seriously off in the Brexit vote, the Scottish referendum and the most recent UK election.

And that relates to this election how?

The data isn't as reliable these days and I stand by my prediction that the silent Trump voter is real and has been largely missed by the pollsters.

Based on what?

Less than 1 month to go. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. I have no issue with a Clinton presidency, I just don't think she'll win.

Since you're so confident I'd be more than interested in an even money bet.

 

[manureid]

You would think the Clinton peoples would want the polls to show closeness, so that anti Trumpers who otherwise could not be arsed voting, may get concerned and actually do it.

 

[Dylan8]

You would think the Clinton peoples would want the polls to show closeness, so that anti Trumpers who otherwise could not be arsed voting, may get concerned and actually do it.

Or show a defeat so large that there's no point turning out to vote

 

[Magpiespower]

Pretty sure I just had a job interview with Jack Donaghy from 30 Rock. As I sat down, he said:

"It's go time. Time to step up to the plate. Gold medals don't come for free, baby!"

Absolutely. Pissed. Myself. Laughing.

So yeah, probably not gonna get it...

 

[raman]

You would think the Clinton peoples would want the polls to show closeness, so that anti Trumpers who otherwise could not be arsed voting, may get concerned and actually do it.

Many polls account for that type of variation by measuring likelihood-to-vote in addition to candidate preference.

 

[Forzaport]

The 1988 election had an 8.8% margin. That translated to an electoral college win of 426 to 111; a landslide by any definition.

But no, I'm not filled with confidence by an 11 point margin in two recent isolated polls. I'm filled with confidence by a 4.6 point margin the most conservative of the three forecasts by the poll averaging model which predicted the 2008 result to 96% accuracy and the 2012 result to 100% accuracy.

View attachment 298797

I look forward to seeing how accurate this poll is come November 8.

Again, primaries are a totally different kettle of fish, and can be influenced heavily by hype and acute momentum (like that of, oh, say, a Sanders or a Trump) in a way that general presidential elections are not.

Fair enough.

And that relates to this election how?

I was making the point that polling for recent big votes has been off, by some margin. If you believe that has no bearing on current election, fair enough.

Based on what?

Fear of persecution.

Since you're so confident I'd be more than interested in an even money bet.

Terrible bet. According to your polling, I should get 5:1. Happy to lay down $50 if you'll pay out $250

 

[John the Butcher]

Found that fat campaigner Cosi in the city chowing down on food the biggest loser taught him not to eat

 

[edgie]

My favourite part of the debate

 

[raman]

Fear of persecution.

Fear of persecution at the hands of a person calling you on the phone, or fear of persecution at the hands of a webform?

Terrible bet. According to your polling, I should get 5:1. Happy to lay down $50 if you'll pay out $250

Consider your bluff called, then.

 

[Doctor Feel]

Found that fat campaigner Cosi in the city chowing down on food the biggest loser taught him not to eat

I always see him texting and driving down pirie street in his stupid ****ing south aussie with cosi car.

 

[Needs Gravy]

Is Boardwalk Empire worth starting?

 

[Steve Dore]

Is Boardwalk Empire worth starting?

I lost interest half way through the first series.

 

[Steve Dore]

I always see him texting and driving down pirie street in his stupid ******* south aussie with cosi car.

Video it and send to SAPOL, unless he's texting his sick cat of course.

 

[Portia]

Is Boardwalk Empire worth starting?

Bobby Cannavale's character is entertainingly ****ed up. Not a lot else you're missing.

 

[Leaveit2charlie]

My favourite part of the debate

I'm more into those on the peripheral.