Suns and Brisbane for me
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The Run Home 2025 - Project Your Optimism or Pessimism Here
- Thread starter rdhopkins2
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If those are the results and we beat Melbourne we really can't miss out. It would mean GWS would have to gain 7% on us in the last round to pass us even if we lost, but more importantly it would mean Freo and us would be even on points but we would have a 9% lead on them so they would have to trounce the Dogs to overtake us, which would eliminate the Dogs anyway, or if the Dogs beat them, they'd very likely be behind us on % and it would be either them or GWS who would miss out. I think our recent record against Brisbane is good prior to this year but I'm not sure we've beaten them at the Gabba often over the last five seasons (have we even played them there recently - I can't recall us doing so?) so I'm not sure I'd want to risk missing finals completely by having to beat them up north, given it could be a do or die game for them too.
Exactly this.
We definitely want Brisbane to win tonight. And for a safer bet to make finals we want the Suns to win tomorrow.
Scenarios exist where we can still make the top 4 even with a Suns win, but we realistically won't miss finals if we beat Melbourne and GC beat GWS. Giving Melbourne a belting tomorrow gives us a percentage boost from GWS, but also the Pies, who we could steal 4th from with a win over Brisbane.
For this week only, come on the LIONS
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- Mar 15, 2006
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Brisbane and Hawthorn win, we're in the finals.
GWS and Adelaide win, we've got double-chance chances.
Port Adelaide win, we're still a chance for pick 5.
let's go Hawks!
GWS and Adelaide win, we've got double-chance chances.
Port Adelaide win, we're still a chance for pick 5.
let's go Hawks!
That's why i like the Suns and Brisbane to win. we can pass Brisbane in the last round with a win and Freo and GWS losing this week helps us lock in finals with a win against Melbourne. We're still a realistic chance of finishing 4th if we win both games passing Collingwood on percentage. A QF against Adelaide in Adelaide - I don't mind that at all, particularly when I'm going to be in Adelaide that weekend already!
- Feb 5, 2018
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Brisbane and Gold Coast.
GWS and Freo losing are our easiest path to making finals.
I know people are obsessed with this idea of finishing top 4, but I need everybody to realise the following...
We can beat Melbourne by 100 points tomorrow.
Then lose to Brisbane by a single, solitary behind...
And MISS finals if Freo win tonight, the Dogs win their final two and the Giants win their final two.
It's way too close for comfort to be hoping for the Suns and Lions to clear an unlikely path to the double chance.
I reckon we'll finish 4th.
- Nov 12, 2014
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Suns Vs GWS that's it. Suns win highly unlikely we miss out.
The last 5 matches between Freo & Bris:
EDITED as I can't count
- 4 have been at Optus, 1 at Gabba
- in those Optus games, H2H 2 wins each
- the Gabba game in 2023 the Lions smashed them
EDITED as I can't count
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Great result for the Hawks tonight. Needed Brisbane to win, needed a decent win for percentage difference. Freo now need to beat dogs in melbourne to make finals
Got somewhat mixed feelings about it. It definitely helps us, plus I like Brissie more than Freo. But boy, I was hoping the Lions wouldn't be in such cracking form. They looked like the 2024 version of themselves tonight.
Do you think? I thought they looked super vulnerable. Freo kicking 3.12 after having 20 Inside 50s in a quarter completely gassed them. Very worried about running into them with a trio of milestones though. Still (potentially) playing off for a top 4 spot (if we win tomorrow) is a good spot to be in.
- Nov 12, 2014
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Win tomorrow it's almost a free hit at top 4 if GC lose. GC win than we rely on Collingwood losing to have that free hit.
Beat Melbourne and we make finals now basically. With Freo and the Dogs playing each other next week, whoever loses stays behind us and guarantees we make it.
It’s the same side that got belted by 12 goals three weeks ago. As I said they looked super vulnerable in the second and third quarters. Allowing 20 plus inside 50s in the second especially. They also lost Berry tonight so that’s another foot soldier down.
H00t
Norm Smith Medallist
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That was more on Freo than the lions being good though.
Freo have looked unconvincing during parts of the last 4 weeks but especially the last 2. Combine that with missing easy goals and some sloppy defending and you get such a margin.
Lions looked very vulnerable both in the midfield and defensively.
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Hawks future
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Yeah that's true I still think we lose to lions and play the dogs in a rematch of last year
DearJai
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Given our history going back a fair way, I don't think we'll lose to the Lions up there.
We'll get a better idea after Saturday, but it looks to me like we've been building towards top form for 3 weeks now.
The Saints and Crows pegged our fast start back, but against Adelaide we found the gear a second time, and only lost narrowly. Then we all know what happened when we played 4 quarters agains the Pies.
We'll be ready to explode in finals after winning the next two imo.
I'm sure Brisbane are ready also, but our side has a few more gear shifts to come, and our backline is formidable - size, speed and kicking are on point. The forward line is building, and the smoke is starting to rise again with Chol and Dear. Both looked very good for periods against the pies.
Meek, Newcome, Nash, Worpel and Ward need to stay fit, and we'll give things a shake.
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unitedhawk2
All Australian
Should be aiming for Top 4 now. If we win our last 2 games, we're a very good chance to make it.
Brisbane are very beatable at the 'Gabba in 2025.
Aim High. Always.
Brisbane are very beatable at the 'Gabba in 2025.
Aim High. Always.
- Feb 5, 2018
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Gold Coast have an extra game in hand, against Essendon's VFL sides nonetheless.
They'd have to lose to both GWS and Port and we'd have to win our last two to finish top 4. I feel it's quite unlikely.
Just need to win today and hope GWS lose, then we go in to next weekend with a free hit at how high we can finish depending on our result against Brisbane.
Still need Crows to pump Pies so we jump on %
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