Autopsy The Stats Don’t Lie: VicBIAS By The Numbers - An Empirical Analysis

[LoungeLizard]

Definitely a teenager. Certainly explains a few things.

Wow, you really are a creep.

Can't get people to go to your party so you try stalk teenagers on the internet.

 

[The 747]

Get a room you two

 

[demondavey]

My observation from watching AFL since the Crows joined the comp is that for a non Vic team playing against a Vic team in Vic, the issue with the umpiring isn’t so much the frees that get paid to the home Vic side, but the frees that don’t get paid that should have to the non-Vic side.

there is minimal consistency favouring the home Vic side.

I would argue the incorrect decisions you are referring to would predominantly fall into this category, thereby effectively being embedded in the analysis presented.

here is a classic exception though, absolute beauty of a decision:

Is this the worst ‘in the back’ call ever?

Umpires in the spotlight again after awarding controversial free to Hawthorn.

thewest.com.au

That would have to be the worst ever. That’s blatant cheating. Clearly Melbourne are in with a huge chance for a flag this year but I’d love to see Brisbane beat us or Collingwood. Just as a big F you to the AFL and it’s inequality favouring non VFL sides.

 

[demondavey]

2012 Prelim against the Hawks was a complete robbery. We played badly in the 2017 Grand Final, but were never given a chance to anyway - The umpiring in that first half was shocking.

Anytime we get anywhere near a flag the umpiring makes sure we have one arm tied behind our back.

Correct.

2017 gets overlooked because 2016 was so bad but the umpiring was borderline cheating. Absolutely set Richmond up that day. So many early decisions allowed Richmond to get a run on and disadvantaged Adelaide.

No surprise we saw two teams break the drought two years in a row.

 

[Checksider]

Correct.

2017 gets overlooked because 2016 was so bad but the umpiring was borderline cheating. Absolutely set Richmond up that day. So many early decisions allowed Richmond to get a run on and disadvantaged Adelaide.

No surprise we saw two teams break the drought two years in a row.

Genuinely hope that if we ever make another GF it’s not against a Victorian team. Especially not a Victorian team trying to break a drought. This is a common thought amongst Crows and Power supporters here in Adelaide.

 

[demondavey]

I would like to know how non-Vic sides are getting so many free kicks?

Lift your game AFL, they won't leave if they get this much favoritism.

Non Vic sides will probably get looked after at home, sure. Saw it this year with Adelaide v Collingwood. However the fact remains the GF is at the MCG and Collingwood will absolutely get there unless they shit the bed early, in which case it’ll be Melbourne. Brisbane will likely make it.

Can you honestly tell me the umpires won’t get Collingwood over the line on GF day? Not a surer thing.

 

[demondavey]

Genuinely hope that if we ever make another GF it’s not against a Victorian team. Especially not a Victorian team trying to break a drought. This is a common thought amongst Crows and Power supporters here in Adelaide.

Agreed.

I feel sorry for non Vic sides, even though Melbourne are right in the wheelhouse for another flag. God forbid if St Kilda get there against a non Vic side in the next few years, or even Carlton (likely). You know the AFL would get them over the line.

 

[demondavey]

Im still waiting for someone to post up a Vic v non Vic free kick count that shows 1 umpire giving 50% of total free's in a game to a non Vic side as happened to Port v Cats or Crows V Dogs.

And as for Richmond having worst differential, if you transgress 50 times in a game via high fend offs, holding etc. but only get pinged for 25 of them you've actually gotten away with enough to influence the game.
The unpaid free is the hidden stat that influences many results as per Port v Cats 4th qtr recently.

Virtually every single one of Dustin Martin’s ‘fend offs’ was high contact.

 

[demondavey]

There was an investigation by Andrew Demetriou and a few other VFL sooks about why no Victorian teams won flags between 01-06. I wonder if the same effort applies between 07-22? In that time we’ve had 2 non Vic premiers and Victorian sides have beaten non Vic sides in GF on 8 occasions.

Demetriou resigned in 2014. So he oversaw 7 years where only one non Victorian side won a flag after his sook in around 2006.

 

[Grin]

Correct.

2017 gets overlooked because 2016 was so bad but the umpiring was borderline cheating. Absolutely set Richmond up that day. So many early decisions allowed Richmond to get a run on and disadvantaged Adelaide.

No surprise we saw two teams break the drought two years in a row.

Genuinely hope that if we ever make another GF it’s not against a Victorian team. Especially not a Victorian team trying to break a drought. This is a common thought amongst Crows and Power supporters here in Adelaide.

Yet the Crows were up 2 goals at 1/4 time and 9 points down at 1/2 time. After 1/2 time the Crows got the rub of the green.

Damn. Did I go using basic facts again in a pea hearted loser thread.
Sorry. My bad. Whinge on.

 

[Roby]

Are you a teenager?

Lounge is someone you should put on ignore.


By the way, where was the #VICBIAS in the Hawthorn v Freo have today?

 

[LoungeLizard]

Non Vic sides will probably get looked after at home, sure. Saw it this year with Adelaide v Collingwood. However the fact remains the GF is at the MCG and Collingwood will absolutely get there unless they s**t the bed early, in which case it’ll be Melbourne. Brisbane will likely make it.

Can you honestly tell me the umpires won’t get Collingwood over the line on GF day? Not a surer thing.

Yeah of course they will, just like every other GF Collingwood have played in, the umps always get us over the line.

 

[Grin]

Managing a Chronic Complainer

Chronic complainers in the workplace are toxic not only to themselves but also to the people around them. A habit often formed in childhood, it arises from a need for validation and attention and over time can alter the neural pathways in the brain and become a part of the personality, which...

hbr.org

The Damage Done

Research shows that chronic complaining has physiological effects. Through the repetition of bad, sad, mad and powerless feelings, the neurotransmitters in the brain can go through a neural “rewiring,” which reinforces negative thought patterns, making it easier for unhappy thoughts to repeat themselves and leaving little room for the more positive feelings of gratitude, appreciation, and well-being. A continuous cycle of negative thoughts may even cause damage to the hippocampus, the part of the brain used for problem solving and cognitive functioning. Over time, complainers become negativity addicts, attracted to the drama that comes with a complaining attitude.

They are also prone to black-and-white thinking. Compromise isn’t part of the equation. No wonder that chronic complainers are more likely to see problems instead of solutions, making it very difficult to work with them. Given their negativity, it is hard for them to make decisions and solve problems. Ironically, complaining about things creates more things to complain about.

 

[demondavey]

Yeah of course they will, just like every other GF Collingwood have played in, the umps always get us over the line.

Collingwood the feel good story this year. There’s been more photos of the Daicos brothers in a hugging embrace than you’ve scored premiership points. Let me guess, Peter Daicos will present the premiership cup?

Cringe……

 

[LoungeLizard]

Collingwood the feel good story this year. There’s been more photos of the Daicos brothers in a hugging embrace than you’ve scored premiership points. Let me guess, Peter Daicos will present the premiership cup?

Cringe……

What's that got to do with umps getting us over the line?

You're right, Cringe indeed.

 

[demondavey]

What's that got to do with umps getting us over the line?

You're right, Cringe indeed.

You don’t think the Daicos boys playing for a big club with premiership medals is what the AFL wants? Marketing dream for them.

The AFL are into the umpires, come on. Have a look at this idiot, former hawks president. I’d love the WB to win it. Low and behold, the 2016 premier was?

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/af...p/news-story/3590937cf04b24e70daf30e9a79f557f

 

[demondavey]

What's that got to do with umps getting us over the line?

You're right, Cringe indeed.

Is Daicos presenting the premiership cup?

 

[LoungeLizard]

You don’t think the Daicos boys playing for a big club with premiership medals is what the AFL wants? Marketing dream for them.

The AFL are into the umpires, come on. Have a look at this idiot, former hawks president. I’d love the WB to win it. Low and behold, the 2016 premier was?

AFL equalisation: Former Hawks president Andrew Newbold wants Western Bulldogs premiership

Those drugs you're on aren't doing you any good.

When you start talking sense someone (not me though) might take you serious, me, I will just laugh at you trying to get me all riled up.

 

[LoungeLizard]

Is Daicos presenting the premiership cup?

Wow look at you go, hope he does, that's after he finishes umpiring us.

 

[demondavey]

The only way the AFL will ever create equality in a GF is rotation of where it’s held. A truly National sport would move the game interstate where needed. It was only about twenty years ago that we still had to have a PF played at the G. That just doesn’t stack up in a proper professional competition.

The fact the MCG can lock in the GF for so many years is beyond disgraceful.

 

[demondavey]

Those drugs you're on aren't doing you any good.

When you start talking sense someone (not me though) might take you serious, me, I will just laugh at you trying to get me all riled up.

So what’s your take on why Demetriou was up and about no gif premiers for 6 years but didn’t bat an eyelid for the next 7 nor did anyone for the 15 from 2007?

16 was beyond disgraceful. 17 was average at best. The WB were a 7th placed side and were gifted a flag. Collingwood will get the rub this year. Nothing surer. Seriously hope the Lions salute this year.

 

[demondavey]

Why are you looking for teenagers on the internet? there is a title for that.

It’s pretty clear that wasn’t where he was going. Incredibly childish from you.

 

[Demonic Ascent]

Yes.

I dont know how much more specific I can get - just looking at a raw free kick count means nothing.

It can be 109-1 and still be fair. Pretty unlikely but if the team with the scomo end of the stick has a gameplan that counteracts their lack of leg speed by deliberately tripping players as they burst out of the pack and it causes injuries and they do that all game but win because their opposition can’t field a team by the end of a match.

You have the most lopsided free kick count in history - but you can’t look at the raw stat and say that’s unfair.

Extreme example - but you always have to look at a teams style and see why they do or don’t get awarded free kicks.

A free kick count can be 30-30 and it can be unfair af. Again the raw stat means nothing.

I dont know why people are finding this difficult.

Of course.

But everyone who watches wce games can see with their own eyes the ride they get from the umps. The stats just back up what we see with our eyes. They are not taken in isolation.

But nah, it's because you've trained your players not to tackle, that's why you have 1000 more frees at home than your opponents

 

[Demonic Ascent]

79% one way? It is impossible that the home team gets the rub of the green that often when a large differential occurred. What you are positing is that: The non Victornian away team in Victoria plays from behind 79% of the time, but the Victorian team away interstate only plays from behind 56% of the time???

It is a massive statistical anomoly which takes into account years data and is not a mirco analysis based on single games.



On SM-G781B using BigFooty.com mobile app

kranky al Farang83150 what do you reckon?

 

[Demonic Ascent]

Geelong also get a tonne of players moving back to Geelong on the cheap which has to help.

It has been a decade since Sydney managed to convince even a best 22 player at another club to come to the Swans.

Probably because you blew you're salary cap for the next decade on Buddy in 2013.