Opinion The "What's X/Y Player worth" thread

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Suma Magic

Brownlow Medallist
Aug 22, 2009
21,587
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A crack at putting a number next to all the players rumoured to be leaving. I've tried to take into account whether they are contracted and other factors etc.

I've probably gone more for what someone would be willing to pay rather than what what a team would willingly take for them.

No doubt I've got them all wrong... lol

Definitely open to changing my opinion on any of them.

Gibbs - 10
Lever - 10 and 30
Gaff - 7
Balic - 55
Ah Chee (Port) - 60
Crozier - 50
Wilson - 20
Cameron - 20-25
Matera - 50
Goldstein - won't happen as no one wants his salary and North don't want a token pick for him
Impey - 40
Lamb - no value
Masten - 55
Schofield - 55
Watts - 35
Saad - 45
Stringer - 15
Smith - 20
Kennedy - 20
Miles - 50
Ablett - 35
Schache - 15
Taberner - 50
Hartung - 50
Fasolo - 40
How did I do with my 1 October estimate of values?

Gibbs - 10 - way unders
Lever - 10 and 30 - about right
Gaff - 7 - n/a
Balic - 55 - slight overs
Ah Chee (Port) - 60 - about right
Crozier - 50 - slight unders
Wilson - 20 - about right
Cameron - 20-25 - way unders
Matera - 50 - about right
Goldstein - won't happen as no one wants his salary and North don't want a token pick for him - na
Impey - 40 - slight unders
Lamb - no value - na/correct
Masten - 55 - na
Schofield - 55 - na
Watts - 35 - about right
Saad - 45 - way unders
Stringer - 15 - slight overs
Smith - 20 - slight unders
Kennedy - 20 - slight overs
Miles - 50 - na
Ablett - 35 - about right?
Schache - 15 - slight overs
Taberner - 50 - na
Hartung - 50 - na
Fasolo - 40 - na

Totals

Way overs: 0
Slight overs: 4
About right: 6
Slight unders: 3
Way unders: 3

This year it felt like most players went cheap, except for a few contracted players who went for hefty trade prices.
 

HolyRioli

Norm Smith Medallist
May 17, 2009
7,253
3,980
Perth
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Hawthorn
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How did I do with my 1 October estimate of values?

Gibbs - 10 - way unders
Lever - 10 and 30 - about right
Gaff - 7 - n/a
Balic - 55 - slight overs
Ah Chee (Port) - 60 - about right
Crozier - 50 - slight unders
Wilson - 20 - about right
Cameron - 20-25 - way unders
Matera - 50 - about right
Goldstein - won't happen as no one wants his salary and North don't want a token pick for him - na
Impey - 40 - slight unders
Lamb - no value - na/correct
Masten - 55 - na
Schofield - 55 - na
Watts - 35 - about right
Saad - 45 - way unders
Stringer - 15 - slight overs
Smith - 20 - slight unders
Kennedy - 20 - slight overs
Miles - 50 - na
Ablett - 35 - about right?
Schache - 15 - slight overs
Taberner - 50 - na
Hartung - 50 - na
Fasolo - 40 - na

Totals

Way overs: 0
Slight overs: 4
About right: 6
Slight unders: 3
Way unders: 3

This year it felt like most players went cheap, except for a few contracted players who went for hefty trade prices.
I expect players to go cheaper next year as clubs over-value draft picks in the "strong" draft
 

Suma Magic

Brownlow Medallist
Aug 22, 2009
21,587
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AFL Club
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I expect players to go cheaper next year as clubs over-value draft picks in the "strong" draft
So even if the draft is good, you think clubs will over-rate it? That will mean that players normally going for pick 20 might go for pick 35, and clubs will be fine with that.

Personally I don't think there is any more chance of clubs over-rating it as under-rating it.
 

HolyRioli

Norm Smith Medallist
May 17, 2009
7,253
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So even if the draft is good, you think clubs will over-rate it? That will mean that players normally going for pick 20 might go for pick 35, and clubs will be fine with that.

Personally I don't think there is any more chance of clubs over-rating it as under-rating it.
Just an opinion. Some clubs will fall for it IMO, and there will be some bargains to be had
 

perplexed

All Australian
Nov 25, 2015
993
1,282
AFL Club
North Melbourne
How did I do with my 1 October estimate of values?

Gibbs - 10 - way unders
Lever - 10 and 30 - about right
Gaff - 7 - n/a
Balic - 55 - slight overs
Ah Chee (Port) - 60 - about right
Crozier - 50 - slight unders
Wilson - 20 - about right
Cameron - 20-25 - way unders
Matera - 50 - about right
Goldstein - won't happen as no one wants his salary and North don't want a token pick for him - na
Impey - 40 - slight unders
Lamb - no value - na/correct
Masten - 55 - na
Schofield - 55 - na
Watts - 35 - about right
Saad - 45 - way unders
Stringer - 15 - slight overs
Smith - 20 - slight unders
Kennedy - 20 - slight overs
Miles - 50 - na
Ablett - 35 - about right?
Schache - 15 - slight overs
Taberner - 50 - na
Hartung - 50 - na
Fasolo - 40 - na

Totals

Way overs: 0
Slight overs: 4
About right: 6
Slight unders: 3
Way unders: 3

This year it felt like most players went cheap, except for a few contracted players who went for hefty trade prices.
Good effort. But Hartung shouldn't be na. He was delisted, you had him at way overs.
 

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Tom14

Premiership Player
Oct 13, 2015
3,235
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Dan McStay - out of contract but has had a pretty good year. Only issue is that he can't kick straight from 20m out directly in front. Tough one to evaluate given the scarcity of out of contract key position players this year.

I definitely would prefer the Lions re-sign him but I think his value is an interesting question. Clearly not a 1st round pick but maybe a mid-late second?
 

ThePhreshOne

Club Legend
Apr 5, 2016
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Interested to know what people think Papley is worth? Few rumours he’d like to get back to Vic.
He's 22, playing some fantastic football at the moment as he's approaching what some would suggest are his prime years. Averaged 27 goals a season prior to this year and already has 23. Would suggest he'll get to 40. If you are kicking 40 goals as a small forward and are only 22, it's got to be a first rounder at the very least.
 

eth-dog

Premium Gold
Jan 11, 2007
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Dan McStay - out of contract but has had a pretty good year. Only issue is that he can't kick straight from 20m out directly in front. Tough one to evaluate given the scarcity of out of contract key position players this year.

I definitely would prefer the Lions re-sign him but I think his value is an interesting question. Clearly not a 1st round pick but maybe a mid-late second?
Definitely a pick in the 20's on what he's shown.
 

Luder

Team Captain
Jun 7, 2019
464
739
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Western Bulldogs
Darcy Tucker, Ed Langdon, Brennan Cox, Griffin Logue, Ethan Hughes
Tucker - not even going to guess
Langdon - Pick 15 to 20
Cox - Pick 25
Logue - Pick 15
Hughes - another I won't guess

Interested to know what people think Papley is worth? Few rumours he’d like to get back to Vic.
Easily worth at least Pick 10 now I reckon, his value is really rising this year

Michael Hartley? Can't get a game with us due to Hooker, Hurley and Ambrose but has been dominant in the VFL
Probably a late 3rd. I rate him, but he's played 4 games since end of 2017, and his time playing senior footy was never spectacular. Doubt he's worth trading tbh

Dan McStay - out of contract but has had a pretty good year. Only issue is that he can't kick straight from 20m out directly in front. Tough one to evaluate given the scarcity of out of contract key position players this year.

I definitely would prefer the Lions re-sign him but I think his value is an interesting question. Clearly not a 1st round pick but maybe a mid-late second?
End of 1st round pick would be his absolute peak, assuming something comes back to the target club. I think you're pretty close with the mid-late second as his "true" value
 

Tom14

Premiership Player
Oct 13, 2015
3,235
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Tucker - not even going to guess
Langdon - Pick 15 to 20
Cox - Pick 25
Logue - Pick 15
Hughes - another I won't guess


Easily worth at least Pick 10 now I reckon, his value is really rising this year


Probably a late 3rd. I rate him, but he's played 4 games since end of 2017, and his time playing senior footy was never spectacular. Doubt he's worth trading tbh


End of 1st round pick would be his absolute peak, assuming something comes back to the target club. I think you're pretty close with the mid-late second as his "true" value
If McStay was contracted maybe we'd get an end of first but seems unlikely. Pick in the mid 20s probably around the mark.
 

Scotland

Hall of Famer
May 5, 2006
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Interested to know what people think Papley is worth? Few rumours he’d like to get back to Vic.
I would've thought around 15-25. Playing good footy and is only 23 this year. Don't know if he is contracted but would be surprised if Sydney let him go for anything beyond 30.
 

philthy05

Brownlow Medallist
Sep 9, 2008
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Tucker - not even going to guess
Langdon - Pick 15 to 20
Cox - Pick 25
Logue - Pick 15
Hughes - another I won't guess
I don’t know if you’re necessarily wrong about cox, and could understand why freo fans wouldn’t want cox to go for cheap but I’m not sure I would want him at port for that cost.
 

Luder

Team Captain
Jun 7, 2019
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I don’t know if you’re necessarily wrong about cox, and could understand why freo fans wouldn’t want cox to go for cheap but I’m not sure I would want him at port for that cost.
If anything, I constantly see Freo fans arguing he's worth a 1st (which he isn't). The Pick 25 would be best case scenario, and in reality I think he's more likely to go for closer to Pick 40 if he requested a trade. Drafted at Pick 41 and has never been spectacular. Now is behind a number of other talls at Freo and has gone backwards from last year. Only reason I suggested such a high cost is because I doubt Freo would want him being let go, and because he's contracted for 2020
 
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