News "This will kill everyone"

[ScallyWag1]

Richmond's general manager of football Craig Cameron, whose club is set to lose the most, agrees.

"It's frightening," he said of the pending arrival of Gold Coast.

i'm not sure we're set to lose the most. at least we had the chance to go deep in the last uncompromised draft for a while.

i'd be more worried as a club that will lose it's older players in the next year or 2, ie: adelaide, they are going to need to try and gain a lot more from the next couple of drafts than us IMO.

we bottomed out just in time, as nice as it would be to get another bunch of early picks in this years draft i don't think we're set to lose the most.

 

[Mr Magic]

Vitriol, it would be very hard to replicate Geelong.

Recruiters are a lot quicker on the uptake through experience and extra analysis.

I doubt people will be getting the chapmans in the thirtys any time soon.

See 3 top 6 father sons in the 40's helps doesn't it!

 

[Barnzy]

we bottomed out just in time

We haven't fully bottomed out yet, the process will be ongoing for the next couple of years as we cut a large number of players. The best possible time to bottom out was 2007/2008, especially 2008 as it's shaping up as one of the best drafts of recent memory. 2009 was labelled a weak draft and apparently 2010 is much stronger even with all the GC picks. Half to 3 quarters of the players we took in 2009 probably won't even make it if you look at recent drafts.

 

[Vitriol]

Vitriol, it would be very hard to replicate Geelong.

Recruiters are a lot quicker on the uptake through experience and extra analysis.

I doubt people will be getting the chapmans in the thirtys any time soon.

See 3 top 6 father sons in the 40's helps doesn't it!

true but even now plenty of quality players are emerging from late picks

sometimes you can get a deledio with an early pick and sometimes you can get a tambling...it wouldnt suprise me if a good portion of the 2009 first round picks fail

as for the f/s selections im not sure where they would have been taken in a normal draft so i thought to include them in the list

there's also the high chance imo that gc will have to trade some picks this year as it seems every time a rumour comes out that they have secured an established gun they go and sign a contract with their old club

 

[Mr Magic]

It all depends on who is doing the picking and why they diid it.

I think the rationale behind the picking has changed.

Remember the Tigers made Tambling a pick 4 Tambling just did his thing. The point is Tambling was not a pick 4 until the Tigers picked him

I doubt a player like Tambling would go pick 4 these days . I have nothing against Tambling BTW who I think will be good for us!

 

[TigerTime88]

I think they can guarantee a premiership but the next 10 is a joke.

Yes they have 17 first rounders but we are bottom of the table and have over the past 5 years had 14 first round picks on our list (I am including delisted players). Not all work out. Guys like Meyer, Thompson are obvious examples...not to mention JON.

They are only going to sign Gary ABlett as a big name imo which will be huge, but who are GWS going to sign. They will certainly be quite good but alot of these kids will also bail.

Not to mention we have experienced late picks that take years to come on but eventually do like Foley, Collins, Jackson, Newman ect that by 2014-2015 window will be better players on game day than most of there first round picks that will still only be 21....

The only way this situation will occur is if they walk into a super draft, however tbh this year is not looking that super imo, and more very even across the board.

 

[Spluff]

The only way this situation will occur is if they walk into a super draft, however tbh this year is not looking that super imo, and more very even across the board.

If you put the 17 year olds back into this years draft, it's better than 2008.

 

[Rayzorwire]

I'm not sure how relevant it is to look at past drafts and take comfort in how many of those early picks didn't kick on, the draft pools are getting better all the time and the recruiting teams are also getting better.

Even in the 2009 compromised draft, what we've seen of the talent pool is best labelled as 'scary' if GC end up with so many similar calibre players, as it seems they inevitably will - if not better players.

I think Pelchen is quite probably being OTT with his 2012 finals contenders claims, but having said that, he knows the available talent in this draft better than any of us. Rendell's claims for a 2014-15 flag and domination thereafter seem quite feasible to me.

Have to agree with others who have said they don't think we'll be worst affected, at least our key players are at the right age to weather this storm, unlike many.

I just hope they can't attract any decent mature players and that they somehow fail to get their young draftees to bond together...if they do get some good mature players who lead the team well and give the kids a good launch pad into AFL football, AND those kids bond well and pledge to stick together, the scenario of a decade of domination is not beyond the realms of possibility IMO.

 

[Mr Magic]

The first round pick is a lovely topic.

I wish someone could do some proper stats on the effect of draft picks.


I believe if you put a matrix over first round picks with physical attributes you would get some interesting results.

I for one believe the top 10 or top 7 is a far more realistic gauge of talent rather than first rounders these days.

With all the scrutiny and transparency these days it is hard to stuff up a first pick unless you go left field in your selection. That is your Goddards, Gibbs etc..

So the number of first round picks is meaningless. The number of second hand picks like Polak, Thompson, Hislop etc... is even more meaningless.

 

[ScallyWag1]

are the GC keeping all their early picks, or will they push a few onto other clubs for some experienced players to avoid getting belted around physically in their early days?

if they pick up some older (26ish) players in lieu of taking kids with some of the picks, then some of them will be top age or finished once the influx of 17-18 y/o's start to hit their straps in a few years time.

 

[coke_zero]

are the GC keeping all their early picks, or will they push a few onto other clubs for some experienced players to avoid getting belted around physically in their early days?

if they pick up some older (26ish) players in lieu of taking kids with some of the picks, then some of them will be top age or finished once the influx of 17-18 y/o's start to hit their straps in a few years time.

You would think they would trade some picks. To get players over there they will have to trade.

 

[Simmonds2Hislop]

The first round pick is a lovely topic.

I wish someone could do some proper stats on the effect of draft picks.

This is my own evaluation of the top 20 picks from each year:

*This is purely subjective, based on my own opinion.

2000 - 6 consistently good/great
3 more somewhat serviceable
11 that turned into absolute duds/list cloggers.

01 - 6 good/great
4 serviceable
10 duds

02 - 6 good/great
3 serviceable
11 crap

03 - 5 good/great (that's if you rate Walker, McLean and Sylvia)
The other 15 are either average at best, with most being shithouse

04 - 6 guns
1-3 serviceable
11-13 crap

05 - 6-9 guns
5-6 average
the other 5-9 are no good

06 - A bit early to call but only 5 look like becoming stars (maybe 6 if you include Gumbledon).
The rest are plodders

The 07-09 drafts look OK but are too early to call.

So about 50% serviceable, and 30% are good or better.

Around 50% all up are duds.

 

[_RT_]

Hyperbole aside Ruthless, you'll forgive me if I take more notice of Matt Rendell, Chris Pelchen and to a lesser extent Craig Cameron on this particular issue.

So because they say something it must be gospel, seeing we all know that no-one in footy ever puts their own spin on things.

Forgive me for being cynical but the Crows are currently sitting in 15th spot and are about to lose a heap of experienced players, could it be that Rendell is doing nothing more but getting excuses out there so if the Crows struggle over the next few years he can simply point back at this story and say see I told you so. On the other hand if the Crows do happen to perform well and their kids shine he makes himself look like some sort of recruiting guru.

Same applies to our own Cameron, we're sitting last with a 1-10 record, the majority of fans are expecting improvement from the kids we've brought in and a steady climb up the ladder, if it goes wrong Cameron can again point to the concessions given to GC/GWS and say we never got a fair chance. If our list improves quicker than expected it makes Cameron and the recruiting staff look great.

Like I said, if and when this domination by GC/GWS happens then I'll believe it, until then its nothing more than scare mongering.

 

[TFLUA-Tiger]

So because they say something it must be gospel, seeing we all know that no-one in footy ever puts their own spin on things.

Forgive me for being cynical but the Crows are currently sitting in 15th spot and are about to lose a heap of experienced players, could it be that Rendell is doing nothing more but getting excuses out there so if the Crows struggle over the next few years he can simply point back at this story and say see I told you so. On the other hand if the Crows do happen to perform well and their kids shine he makes himself look like some sort of recruiting guru.

Same applies to our own Cameron, we're sitting last with a 1-10 record, the majority of fans are expecting improvement from the kids we've brought in and a steady climb up the ladder, if it goes wrong Cameron can again point to the concessions given to GC/GWS and say we never got a fair chance. If our list improves quicker than expected it makes Cameron and the recruiting staff look great.

Like I said, if and when this domination by GC/GWS happens then I'll believe it, until then its nothing more than scare mongering.

Certainly the reasons you mentioned play a factor in the coaches expressing fears that the GC/GWS will come in and cost sides currently near the bottom a chance to be competitive.

But there's enough fact in their statements, and if you've watched enough of the juniors you'd know they'll be getting a hell of a lot of talent on their lists.

The GC got 11 bottom aged kids last year - and guys like Matera, Toy and Weller all would have easily gone first round last year.

Add in to the fact that they'll most likely be getting 3 of Swallow, Bennell, Darling and Day plus a whole heap of talented youngsters throughout the rest of the draft - and you can't deny that's a lot of talent they're getting.

If they do manage to get their hands on some good uncontracted players they'll come in and certainly not be a bottom side in the AFL.

Within 3-4 years they'll be looking at establishing a period of dominance over the AFL. They'll have the perfect blend of young talent and older experienced heads to help them through it.

If you'd not have taken those 11 kids out of this draft there would be a lot of excited clubs. Instead there's just the GC rubbing its hand together at its fortune.

 

[_RT_]

Certainly the reasons you mentioned play a factor in the coaches expressing fears that the GC/GWS will come in and cost sides currently near the bottom a chance to be competitive.

But there's enough fact in their statements, and if you've watched enough of the juniors you'd know they'll be getting a hell of a lot of talent on their lists.

The GC got 11 bottom aged kids last year - and guys like Matera, Toy and Weller all would have easily gone first round last year.

Add in to the fact that they'll most likely be getting 3 of Swallow, Bennell, Darling and Day plus a whole heap of talented youngsters throughout the rest of the draft - and you can't deny that's a lot of talent they're getting.

If they do manage to get their hands on some good uncontracted players they'll come in and certainly not be a bottom side in the AFL.

Within 3-4 years they'll be looking at establishing a period of dominance over the AFL. They'll have the perfect blend of young talent and older experienced heads to help them through it.

If you'd not have taken those 11 kids out of this draft there would be a lot of excited clubs. Instead there's just the GC rubbing its hand together at its fortune.

I'm not saying that the new teams won't be competitive, I just don't believe that they are going to come in and in 2 years time be a top 8 side and in their 4th year be playing in a GF. Yes GC got some outstanding talent last year and will get some more this year, but like everyone else they still have to develop that talent properly. As a fellow Richmond supporter you should know that its one thing to have talent, its another thing to have that talent perform at a high level from the word go.

The odds are that from the 21 players GC pick (12 kids from last year plus this years 9 first rounders this year) only around 50% will make it past 100 games. Take a look at the 2001 draft of the 74 players taken that year only 30 are still playing in 2010. Yet somehow the recruiting managers spoken to for this story seem to think that GC/GWS will win 10 premierships between them in the decade from 2014 on. Like I said I just don't believe that it will happen like they say.

Another thing, given what you said about some of those 11 kids from last year being first round picks this year, wouldn't that mean that some of GC late first round picks are more likely to be the equivalent of a second round pick in terms of talent.

Finally, given you watch a lot more of the kids than I do, would it be fair to also suggest that some of the kids GWS will target with their 12 picks this year could have been possible first rounders in this draft as well which further depletes the pool?

 

[Tigerland]

You would think they would trade some picks. To get players over there they will have to trade.

_____________________________________________

They will have to trade some picks purely to spread the age of the players. In 5 -7 years time that will have 20 odd kids that are aged 22 - 24 and in their prime - demanding big $$. How they'll be able to stay under the salary cap then will be interesting.

The interstate clubs will then get their own back and steal some of their players with the lure of the come home factor and big $. It's called Karma.

 

[coke_zero]

_____________________________________________

They will have to trade some picks purely to spread the age of the players. In 5 -7 years time that will have 20 odd kids that are aged 22 - 24 and in their prime - demanding big $$. How they'll be able to stay under the salary cap then will be interesting.

The interstate clubs will then get their own back and steal some of their players with the lure of the come home factor and big $. It's called Karma.

As long as they dont pick up any of our players unless we are willing i dont care what happens to them. I would offer McGuane and maybe a few others to them.

 

[errrp!]

well this would depend on the quality of the first round picks surely? many teams are not very successful with their first round picks. north haven't been that successful pre-2007. haven't really followed richmond 1st rounders. how has that gone?

 

[NQTIGER]

It's a concern, that is for sure.

If anyone claims that it is not a concern then they are kidding themselves.

What concerns me is that this franchise not only has all this strong young talent, but they have an extra 1 million dollars in salary cap and can sign up to 16 uncontracted players.

Regardless of whether those players will sign or not, that is WAY too much advantage for a new club to be given, it's unfair to existing clubs.

Quite frankly I hope these franchises struggle, to the extent of Fremantle, and after hard work - without distinct advantages, they can fight for the flag.

If they struggle it will be worse as the AFL will give them more concessions, our hope is that they are competetie from day one/

look at what the AFL did with sydney, and brisbane.

How many times was sydney broke 3? 4? and they bailed them out, we were broke and rattling tins....did the AFL help...nfw.

We have short memories. Brisbane became a powerhouse after 3 AFL bailouts and the RAPE of fitzroy.........boy we have short memories.

WE want what rightly belongs to us and that is pick 1 if we finish last and a priority pick if we deserve it........but gee we have short memories.

 

[smasha]

Unbelievable the amount of help the new clubs are getting by Adolf Dimwittio.

Dimwit wants that money.

 

[NQTIGER]

Unbelievable the amount of help the new clubs are getting by Adolf Dimwittio.

Dimwit wants that money.

I agree smasha thats .why i reckon we should try and get as much as we can

 

[IDGAF]

GEELONG HAVE ... SINCE THE INCEPTION OF THE DRAFT ... HAD NO HIGHER PICK THAN 7

Read into that what you want ...

It aint a mathematical equation that says ..."Highest picks = best team"

Pathetically simplistic

 

[folester41]

Yes they will have all tools to be succesful within a short period of time.

but as mentioned not all of those first round picks will become good players.

not all will settle on the gold coast.

and the question is will gold coast have the resources and personnel to be able to cater for so many young players all at the same time?

it is going to be a very big challenge ensuring they get the most out of each and every first round pick they have.

many players wont get the opportunity to show their worth at the top level because of the number of players gold coast will have on their list.

i look foward to seeing gold coast join the competition next season, and yes some of the players they have drafted will become out and out stars, but having the talent and actually performing at the top level are completely different things as we have found out over the years.

 

[Bojangles17]

fair beat up, but why wouldn't you try on it if you were adelaide , 5 key players retiring trying to rebuild in this era, Lucky for us we have already warehoused some of the finest talent in the competiton with this years draft being the cream on the cake with the prized No 4, sheesh Id hate to be in a few other clubs shoes right now,

GC and GWS next 10 flags...lmao...what next, penis extensions really work...gimmee a break man

Facts are, of top 10 draft picks in any one year , a great yield would be 3 or 4 A graders, the balance could very well be no better or worse than a pick 34. Takes years to build , like layers on a cake, after a few years they will be hardpressed to maintain their list with Victorians ripe for the picking wanting to return home

 

[Barnzy]

GEELONG HAVE ... SINCE THE INCEPTION OF THE DRAFT ... HAD NO HIGHER PICK THAN 7

Read into that what you want ...

It aint a mathematical equation that says ..."Highest picks = best team"

Pathetically simplistic

They also got their 2 best players from F/S picks and couple other players as well.