List Mgmt. Trade & Free Agency talk Pt 8

Remove this Banner Ad

For those who are concerned about a lack of leadership and older players at the club if we:-
  • trade Baker, Rioli, Graham
  • let Dusty and Broad walk
  • retire Grimes and Prestia

Consider the age profile of the following 11 remaining players:-

Vlastuin 30
Short 28
Nank 29
Lynch 31
Hopper 27
Taranto 26
Bolton 25
Balta 24
McIntosh 30
Young 25
Miller 24

Plenty of older heads and plenty coming through in the 21-23 age bracket too.
1713508638866.png
All the data will be sourced from the below

According to Draft Guru at the end of the year (31 December 2024) our average age will be 25.45 years old from a list of 44 players without any list changes. If we let those 7 players mentioned leave and replace them with fresh draftees (I made all the draftees 19) our list has an average age of 23.66. That is the same age that Hawthorn began the year with for some context (only North were younger at 23.38).

Now when we look at games played, the data will be as at Round 5 2024 but the comparison will have to be made against the games played at the start of the season (I have done this because we are putting games into draftees and that does major things to increase our average games). As at Round 5 2024 our average games sit at 72.59 games and have a standard deviation (see note below of a very brief explanation of standard deviation) of 80.44 games. Again if we replace those players removed with fresh draftees we will end up with an average games played of 43.75 with a standard deviation of 62.60 games. Compare that to the games played list at the start of 2024 we would have the most inexperienced list by an average of 5 games to North.

We lose a lot of experience and leadership in the backline. That leaves our backline with just an average of 54.33 games with a standard deviation of 73.59 games. This is worrying because only Vlaustuin and Short will have over 100 games experience. We need to keep some experience in Broad and Rioli.

Explanation of Standard Deviation
Standard Deviation is a measure of how much variation exists in a set of data.

A low SD means that most of the data lies close to the mean (Mathematical Average). Example data (5,5,5,6,7,7,7)
A High SD means that the data is more spread out. Example data (1,1,1,6, 11,11,11)

Both have a mean (Mathematical Average) of 6, but the SD of the first is .93 and the second is 4.6.
 
Why should we give anything back ??

Adam Saad - #6+3rd rounder
Schulz or what ever his name is - Pies 1st rounder
Hopper / Toranto - We all know what they cost

#6 + 2nd rounder should be the demand from freo
Saad was pick 8 and a 4th rounder, and Essendon got a 3rd and 4th back.

Schulz was a future 1st, which 99% of people expected to be 16 at worst, and he was contracted.

Hopper we overpaid due to giving a future 1st when we expected to challenge for a flag and the wheels fell off. We all thought it'd end up 15+, not 6. That's the risk of trading future picks. And he was contracted.

Taranto was a mid-late 1st and a early 2nd. He was also worth more than Baker, see last years bnf results. Both picks also blew way out due to the bs academy/fs picks.
Pick #6 is the pies pick and will most likely get to #8-9
Then you add another 3 Academy / FS that gets to #12 .......... Thats unders
At this stage I don't think there will be any fs/academy picks inside the top 9, bar probably Ashcroft. So 6 would likely end up 7, not 12.
 

Log in to remove this ad.

Saad was pick 8 and a 4th rounder, and Essendon got a 3rd and 4th back.

Schulz was a future 1st, which 99% of people expected to be 16 at worst, and he was contracted.

Hopper we overpaid due to giving a future 1st when we expected to challenge for a flag and the wheels fell off. We all thought it'd end up 15+, not 6. That's the risk of trading future picks. And he was contracted.

Taranto was a mid-late 1st and a early 2nd. He was also worth more than Baker, see last years bnf results. Both picks also blew way out due to the bs academy/fs picks.

At this stage I don't think there will be any fs/academy picks inside the top 9, bar probably Ashcroft. So 6 would likely end up 7, not 12.
Lombard & 1 of the camporeale boys will be top 10
 
Me thinks at the end of the year dockers will have pick 8( there own)
Pick 12 (collingwood) and pick 15 (power)
We will trade baby bogan baker plus our second round pick tied to Fremantle ( pick 28) and in return we get pick 12 and 15
That would be a very good deal for us. Dockers may prefer to give 8 instead of 12+15 in return for baker + 28.

If it ended up being a straight swap for 12 I think we should be fairly happy with that though.
 
I think we are in a pretty good spot. I know a lot of comparisons are to North and hawthorn bottoming out, but we have been drafting and have a pretty decent young core. North would dream about players we drafted during our premiership years like balta, bolton etc, and then we have our 5 from 2021. I guess whoever decides to go this year just means we turn a 26 to 30 year old into a younger player a bit early. They won't all go so we will have some younger players coming in and some experience staying. But if our oldest players in midfield are taranto and hopper it would be ok. I don't mind some like Graham and broad going, even baker if we could get a pick and a player it puts us in a good spot with our list. And I wouldn't begrudge dusty or rioli if they go north. I think we will draft well now, but let's get some soft cap into conditioning!
 
I think given they want him so badly it is 2 first round picks. That really helps us out as 1 pick replaces Baker and a 2nd pick can replace another retiring player, so it improves our list long term
Baker
 
Maybe, but we were talking about top 6. A lot of water to go under the bridge yet.

We will be benefiting from at least one of those early selections by acquiring the respective clubs 1st pick anyway (hopefully) so we'd still benefit.
Pies wont finish that low and that pick will be later than 6
 
View attachment 1964025
All the data will be sourced from the below

According to Draft Guru at the end of the year (31 December 2024) our average age will be 25.45 years old from a list of 44 players without any list changes. If we let those 7 players mentioned leave and replace them with fresh draftees (I made all the draftees 19) our list has an average age of 23.66. That is the same age that Hawthorn began the year with for some context (only North were younger at 23.38).

Now when we look at games played, the data will be as at Round 5 2024 but the comparison will have to be made against the games played at the start of the season (I have done this because we are putting games into draftees and that does major things to increase our average games). As at Round 5 2024 our average games sit at 72.59 games and have a standard deviation (see note below of a very brief explanation of standard deviation) of 80.44 games. Again if we replace those players removed with fresh draftees we will end up with an average games played of 43.75 with a standard deviation of 62.60 games. Compare that to the games played list at the start of 2024 we would have the most inexperienced list by an average of 5 games to North.

We lose a lot of experience and leadership in the backline. That leaves our backline with just an average of 54.33 games with a standard deviation of 73.59 games. This is worrying because only Vlaustuin and Short will have over 100 games experience. We need to keep some experience in Broad and Rioli.

Explanation of Standard Deviation
Standard Deviation is a measure of how much variation exists in a set of data.

A low SD means that most of the data lies close to the mean (Mathematical Average). Example data (5,5,5,6,7,7,7)
A High SD means that the data is more spread out. Example data (1,1,1,6, 11,11,11)

Both have a mean (Mathematical Average) of 6, but the SD of the first is .93 and the second is 4.6.
Great work 👍

Do you think that age and average games wise, we would appear to be starting our rebuild 2 to 3 years ahead of where north and Hawthorn started?

That is, we're Hawthorn and north's average age and games far less in 2021, 2022 and 2023 than what ours would be under my scenario for 2025?
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

Did we in 2021 miss a trick
With pick 28 and 36
28- Tyler sonsie
36 -jake soligo ( played in our reserves team) in 2021
Hmmm , would love to see sonz get some midfieid time hard to believe that’s where he started and showed a bit yet with the absence of stars he can’t get a run , mind boggling, especially so that his VFL form was good
 
Me thinks at the end of the year dockers will have pick 8( there own)
Pick 12 (collingwood) and pick 15 (power)
We will trade baby bogan baker plus our second round pick tied to Fremantle ( pick 28) and in return we get pick 12 and 15
I'd rather just take pick 8.
 
Disagree if what the pundits are saying about this draft, that it’s very even in the first round. Two better than one if their assessment is correct
If we give up pick 30 too Freo then our task of trading 2/ 3rd rnd picks for F/s or academy kids becomes harder.
If we play our cards right.
Pick 8 for Bakes.
Multi picks for f/s etc would land us another 1st.
Even if it's in the teens we have pick 8 & teen
Draft-3/8/teen/22
 
Dockers are campaigners to deal with generally

If you look at the players they have recruited from other clubs:

Brodie, Aish, O'Meara(Dockers paid Meek + Dogs 2023 rd 2 pick) - former clubs were glad to offload them and their salaries so Dockers accommodated them.

Wagner, McDonald - Delisted Free

Corbett - fringe player, 4th round pick

Jackson - picks 7 + 15 + 34

They have basically only traded for one player the other club wanted to keep, Jackson. They probably got him a fraction on the cheap side at 7 + 15 + 34 with a pick in the 40's going back, but they seem to pay up for players when they want them. You have to really.
 
Yep Bell is a campaigner - we’d be better off dealing with Clark at West C.
Peter “feathers” Bell End is a massive campaigner. Again I can’t see him coming to us this year unfortunately unless you’re happy to accept our 2R, which you won’t be.

Sign Baker for 1 more year then we’ll offer a band 1 FA deal and you’ll get pick 4-6 and we get him free of draft cost.
 
Baker is an insanely good mark, just kicked a bag of goals from beyond 50. Toby Greene like. A flanker is Hugo, Cumbrerland, Banks.

Baker is so far above them it aint funny.

Gunna lose half a dozen players anyhow. Grimes, Prestia, Dusty etc. I think the club retain Baker until we can't match, that's our style.

Baker is the absolute definition of a flanker or a utility. Whatever you call it he ain't a CHF. Not sure why mentioning VFL grade players makes a difference. Baker was a half back flank or half forward flank in our flag team. We need the next Lynch/Riewoldt/Rance/Cotchin who make guys like Bakes play good footy.
 
Great work 👍

Do you think that age and average games wise, we would appear to be starting our rebuild 2 to 3 years ahead of where north and Hawthorn started?

That is, we're Hawthorn and north's average age and games far less in 2021, 2022 and 2023 than what ours would be under my scenario for 2025?
We will be roughly the same as the Hawks in 2022. I think that one thing that does change though is that we just lose say Grimes, Martin, Prestia and Pickett for example, we still have a lot of players in that zone of 24-28 who have played a lot of football where the Hawks were much more around the high of 28-30+ and there was a large experience gap.

As I looked at the list however and really thought about it, we are 1 45 - 60 goal a year <25 Year old forward down on having a list that, with some tweaking and re tooling could probably contend again within 1 to 2 years.

The problem with that is that we seem to be in a rut of talented tall forwards. I think back to say 2010 to 2015 for example and there was Jack Riewoldt, Jordan Roughhead, Franklin, Kennedy, Hawkins, Jono Brown (was still averaging 2.3 goals a game from 2010 to 2014), Pav, Hall, Nick Riewoldt, Kosi, Cloke.

Now when you look at the tall forward stocks it is the 2 Kings, Amiss, Cameron, Lynch, Mckay, Curnow, Ugle-Hagen, McDonald and that is kinda it for tall forwards that you could say that are either trending in the right direction (Amiss, Ugle-Hagen and McDonald) or could be relied on in a full season.
 
Peter “feathers” Bell End is a massive campaigner. Again I can’t see him coming to us this year unfortunately unless you’re happy to accept our 2R, which you won’t be.

Sign Baker for 1 more year then we’ll offer a band 1 FA deal and you’ll get pick 4-6 and we get him free of draft cost.
Rd 2 - **** off. You’re more delusional than Dodoro. Give us your 1st or future 1st plus a Rd 2 this year. If you make a commitment to a player you have to pay whatever it takes to get him. Ask Gold Coast and Lachie Weller
 
Rd 2 - * off. You’re more delusional than Dodoro. Give us your 1st or future 1st plus a Rd 2 this year. If you make a commitment to a player you have to pay whatever it takes to get him. Ask Gold Coast and Lachie Weller
Reading is obviously not your strong point is it champ?

If we’re talking about delusional, Liam Baker for pick 3 might very well be the dictionary definition of delusional.

There’s some very reasonable and balanced Tigers posters on here, you seem like a better fit for the Cats or Bombers.
 

Remove this Banner Ad

Back
Top