List Mgmt. Trade Targets / Rumours

[Kiss from a Rozee]

just having a read and saw Nixon's tweet..I would have thought that the crows would be up to their eyeballs in trying to get Lukosius IF they still rated him as highly as they did last year. The only question from Adelaide is are they now just as keen to get say Anderson in the draft or are they maybe going to try and make a play for Brodie Grundy. What do you think port would have to give up to get Lukosius from GC?

I think it would be the equivalent of two first rounders for Lukosius and a 3rd rounder.

The first trade that comes to mind would be this and next years first rounders but I think that would be a s**t idea.

I’d think it would be literally whichever player they want who will go there and a pick swap. Maybe Tom Jonas or Dan Houston? Amon? Riley Bonner? Joel Garner?

I don’t think it would be any of the players we just drafted, and I don’t think we’d want to lose any of Clurey, Houston, Burton, Hartlett, Howard, Marshall or Willem Drew. But I reckon the only players Gold Coast would actually want are among that list, so we’d probably have to pony up.

 

[Windy Cindy]

I honestly think Lukosius a third tall and there would be limited value for us having both him and Marshall

I’d also rather let him tank his trade value a couple more years before we go for him. Would cost too much right now.

Luko has good skills but questionable competitiveness

 

[Windy Cindy]

there is no way we should be trying for luko over rankine

we desperately need speed through the side, not another tall option with a soft side.

 

[PAFC_1870]

We saw Cameron early on from memory play well, till I see Luko do the same I'm not interested.

It could just as likely be Sam Day 2.0, far more have failed then succeeded.

 

[Ports1870]

Luko and Marshall would work brilliantly next season with Dixon imo. They will have 2-3 season to learn from Dixon and then can take over after.

 

[Chrizzt]

We saw Cameron early on from memory play well, till I see Luko do the same I'm not interested.

It could just as likely be Sam Day 2.0, far more have failed then succeeded.

That's a different scenario. Sam Day was a big athlete who clubs thought could be turned into a footballer.

Lukosius is a natural footballer.

 

[Janus]

there is no way we should be trying for luko over rankine

we desperately need speed through the side, not another tall option with a soft side.

That's why we go and get Fantasia as well.

 

[Andre]

Haven't we established (unless you're an all in Ken fanboi), that KPF's need time more than any of sort of player? Luko is doing ok for a first year KPF, in a side that gets too little ball forward of centre, whose 3 or 4 pre-seasons away from really making an impression.

KPF's demand a premium to get, contracted players as well. Of course we'd pay 'overs' for him. In our AFL time our KPF's of any real note have been Tredrea (Zone), Schulz (trade), Dixon (trade) and we hope Marshall. That's one (potential) KPF clear talent we've been able to draft in over 20 years.

Holy s**t at quibbles about trading out a quality mid, small foward or defender to get a crack at one. There's always, always, going to be chances to grab those every draft. We got 3 FFS in one draft last year. This isn't even a mid-20's Dixon, this is a KPF with 10-12 years in front of him.

If we can get Luko, suck it up, pay our first, lose a quality young player we'd rather keep, but is much more easily replaceable and don't stress about 'overpaying'. Any player over 25 or younger player that's a small should be up as an option to go to GC to get him.

 

[Ports1870]

That's why we go and get Fantasia as well.

Just asking, what do you reckon we would give up to get both of these in the same off-season?

 

[manureid]

Are you people serious? If we’ve got a chance at Lukosius, we go out and get Lukosius.

This is his current ceiling:

18 disposals, 9 contested possessions, 7 marks, 2 contested marks, 6 tackles, 1 goal, 2 goal assists.

He’s actually recorded these stats in games in his first season. Not the same game, obviously, but it shows you what the potential is for the future.

If Gold Coast want a best 22 player, they can have Sam Gray.

This is a very strange stat line to pull.

Using this Sam Gray has a ceiling of:

37 Disposals, 19 Contested possessions, 11 Marks, 2 contested marks, 13 tackles, 6 goals and 3 goal assists. He actually did this in one game.

Like for Like (Luko has played more games as well), Billy Framptons ceiling is:

14 Disposals, 9 contested possessions, 5 marks, 4 contested marks, 2 tackles, 3 goals and 1 goal assist.

A very Janus way of looking at it I guess.

 

[Butters Made Me Do It]

I’m not against getting in Lukosius but I’d be keen on shifting out Marshall as part of the deal because most of our other trade capital I’d rather hang onto and I think our need for Marshall would drop dramatically in this scenario

 

[Janus]

This is a very strange stat line to pull.

Using this Sam Gray has a ceiling of:

37 Disposals, 19 Contested possessions, 11 Marks, 2 contested marks, 13 tackles, 6 goals and 3 goal assists. He actually did this in one game.

Like for Like (Luko has played more games as well), Billy Framptons ceiling is:

14 Disposals, 9 contested possessions, 5 marks, 4 contested marks, 2 tackles, 3 goals and 1 goal assist.

A very Janus way of looking at it I guess.

You can't use it on players who have already established a form line like Sam Gray. It's only to show the potential of a player.

But yes, Frampton will be a good player. That's why I'd be keeping him.

 

[Butters Made Me Do It]

Marshall, Motlop and Ryder for Lukosius

 

[Janus]

Just asking, what do you reckon we would give up to get both of these in the same off-season?

No point speculating until you know the final ladder positions of each team. I don't rate this draft or next draft so I'm all in on trading both first round picks regardless if we can get Lukosius.

 

[philthy05]

I’m not against getting in Lukosius but I’d be keen on shifting out Marshall as part of the deal because most of our other trade capital I’d rather hang onto and I think our need for Marshall would drop dramatically in this scenario

I would like more key forwards not break even.

I also don’t like our chances of excellent key forwards falling to us in the next couple of drafts. They’ve been remarkably absent for a while now and I’m not sure that’s gonna change.

If we want forwards for Rozee to kick to we probably need to be very proactive very early.

 

[Butters Made Me Do It]

I would like more key forwards not break even.

So would I, but I’m maybe half a year of continuing dubious form from saying we need to try Marshall as a backman because forward ain’t working. I feel like his trade value is on the verge of plummeting and that this offseason might be the best time to move him on, and hopefully GC might see him as a bit like-for-like

 

[Janus]

Marshall is averaging 13.4 disposals, 3.3 marks, 2.6 tackles and 1.1 goals per game in the SANFL. He's 20 years old, FFS.

Frampton is 2 years older, 3 kilograms heavier and averaging 14.3 disposals, 5.5 marks, 2.7 tackles and 2.2 goals per game in the SANFL.

Marshall is doing just fine. He stays where he is.

 

[PAFC_1870]

Marshall, Motlop and Ryder for Lukosius

I love the BF quantity trades, but hey they need experience lol

 

[Chrizzt]

Marshall is averaging 13.4 disposals, 3.3 marks, 2.6 tackles and 1.1 goals per game in the SANFL. He's 20 years old, FFS.

Frampton is 2 years older, 3 kilograms heavier and averaging 14.3 disposals, 5.5 marks, 2.7 tackles and 2.2 goals per game in the SANFL.

Marshall is doing just fine. He stays where he is.

Marshall's stats are only ok - even for his age - not great. Part of the problem is how he gets some of those marks and goals, there's a fair few easy grabs in space and some goals in play. Sure those are nice, but his value relies on him either taking contested marks or beating him opponent on the lead (which I've not actually seen happen) and kicking more regulation KPF goals.

I'm with Butters Made Me Do It in that the issue now becomes him getting to that stage where potential counts for nothing. If he can't start to develop that side of his game asap (and I mean start to develop, not turn into peak Tony Lockett overnight) then his trade value will plummet. So we have to make the call as to whether we believe we can develop him/he has it in him, or we try and salvage value.

 

[Hong-Kong Phooey]

I think Marshalls family tradegy has severely effected his capacity to get the best out of himself. The window of an afl footballer is small.

I personally don't think he'll make it.

 

[Butters Made Me Do It]

I think Marshalls family tradegy has severely effected his capacity to get the best out of himself. The window of an afl footballer is small.

But also, sometimes a new environment you don’t associate with some of the worst things in your life can be a blessing.

 

[Janus]

Marshall's stats are only ok - even for his age - not great. Part of the problem is how he gets some of those marks and goals, there's a fair few easy grabs in space and some goals in play. Sure those are nice, but his value relies on him either taking contested marks or beating him opponent on the lead (which I've not actually seen happen) and kicking more regulation KPF goals.

I'm with Butters Made Me Do It in that the issue now becomes him getting to that stage where potential counts for nothing. If he can't start to develop that side of his game asap (and I mean start to develop, not turn into peak Tony Lockett overnight) then his trade value will plummet. So we have to make the call as to whether we believe we can develop him/he has it in him, or we try and salvage value.

I don't want him being a regulation KPF.

He's had some really good games in the SANFL that have seen him be recalled to the AFL side. People lament the fact that we can't develop key forwards but don't want to give a kid a chance to actually grow into being one. I'm writing off last year because of what he went through.

People just want to write off players because the new shiny thing is always better.

 

[Ports1870]

Marshall needs a big pre season and then hopefully get backed in by a new coaching staff next season.

 

[philthy05]

So would I, but I’m maybe half a year of continuing dubious form from saying we need to try Marshall as a backman because forward ain’t working. I feel like his trade value is on the verge of plummeting and that this offseason might be the best time to move him on, and hopefully GC might see him as a bit like-for-like

Marshall was a stick years away from being ready when we drafted him, then had 2 years interrupted by tragedy.

Also our options after Marshall in the next few years are bound to be dan Stewart / Mitch Harvey / mason Shaw types because promising kfs go very early for a reason. We’re not going to get the Hawkins Kennedy’s Roughead etcs.

I’ll stockpile Marshall and luko given the chance and accept the risk they fail over the risk we accept by not trying.

 

[Butters Made Me Do It]

Also our options after Marshall in the next few years are bound to be dan Stewart / Mitch Harvey / mason Shaw types because promising kfs go very early for a reason. We’re not going to get the Hawkins Kennedy’s Roughead etcs.

I mean you say that but we literally traded up to pick 6 last year for a flanker, I can’t imagine we couldn’t trade higher if we wanted. We’ve had multiple early picks in our AFL history but always go the mid/flanker so its mostly a desire to draft KPFs early limiting us.

Get Lukosius (remember, thats my condition for trading Marshall), add Hayes developing as a part-timer, keep playing Dixon and we should be able to make a mid-range draft KPF (like most clubs play) work quite well (or even Frampton)

I don’t see us missing Marshall much at all in this scenario tbh