Europe United Ireland becoming a reality.

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Oct 19, 2020
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Richmond
'With Catholics now outnumbering Protestants in Northern Ireland, advocates for unification are starting to believe their dream could become a reality. But is it inevitable – and would a referendum reignite old enmities?'

 
Oct 21, 2020
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Collingwood
Looks like while the demographics is one thing, its not the whole story - many young Catholics are no longer like their parents, die hard republicans just because.

The determinants will be Brexit and by extension the level of dysfunction brought about by the incompetence and direct malfeasance of the Tory government, who have ****ed the entire country but particularly the devolved regions. Even Unionists are starting to question the point of remaining in a United Kingdom that has become a dumpster fire and seems to see areas like NI as sacrificial lambs. Joining Ireland and rejoining the EU starts to look appealing
 

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Looks like while the demographics is one thing, its not the whole story - many young Catholics are no longer like their parents, die hard republicans just because.

The determinants will be Brexit and by extension the level of dysfunction brought about by the incompetence and direct malfeasance of the Tory government, who have cactus the entire country but particularly the devolved regions. Even Unionists are starting to question the point of remaining in a United Kingdom that has become a dumpster fire and seems to see areas like NI as sacrificial lambs. Joining Ireland and rejoining the EU starts to look appealing
I'd imagine the prospect of a hard border due to EU rules might have an impact too.
 

Ballarat Bob

Team Captain
Feb 5, 2020
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765
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Sydney
As has been said younger Irish people aren't as tied to their parents and grandparents political and religious views. Hopefully that would help.
There isn't a united nationalist party that has mass support across the north and south. Northern island receives a lot of financial support from the British government that probably would have to be covered by the E U with maybe the U S contributing.
Considering there hasn't been a functioning government in the north for some time getting the Unionist and Nationalist to agree to a united Ireland is going to be a nightmare.
Not sure that a suitable compromise could be made at this point if it is agreed to via a vote. Would have to be a gradual process over the next 5-10 years and there is enough nut cases in the north on both sides to impede not only politically but to have it revert back to a violent struggle if things go off kilter.
Anyone who can get this done should be awarded the Nobel peace prize for life
 

Geelong_Sicko

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Jun 11, 2007
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Would have to be a gradual process over the next 5-10 years and there is enough nut cases in the north on both sides to impede not only politically but to have it revert back to a violent struggle if things go off kilter
Anyone who can get this done should be awarded the Nobel peace prize for life

Agreed. This decision can't be a snap decision. I am 100% for a 32 county Irish Republic but I recognise there must be coexistence with Unionists who want to remain in post-reunification Ireland. They'll have every bit as much right to exist as anyone else in the Republic. What this will mean regarding cultural events like 'marching season' will take a long time to sort out. Not to mention whether the national anthem should change to reflect a new political reality


This process should be well underway before any kind of a referendum takes place.
 
There'll never be a formally united Ireland, largely because the Republic doesn't want to have to fight a brutal counter-insurgency campaign against the Loyalists.

The Six County statelet will devolve further into a weird politically amorphous place, a grey zone that's not Ireland, not Britain, not the EU but enough of all to keep everyone from shooting at each other again.
 

Geelong_Sicko

Brownlow Medallist
Jun 11, 2007
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There'll never be a formally united Ireland, largely because the Republic doesn't want to have to fight a brutal counter-insurgency campaign against the Loyalists.

The Six County statelet will devolve further into a weird politically amorphous place, a grey zone that's not Ireland, not Britain, not the EU but enough of all to keep everyone from shooting at each other again.
I respectfully disagree. The writing's on the wall. I also believe that all but the most embittered hardline Unionists also know this, and so will be looking to middle-ground groups like the Alliance Party of Northern Ireland to preserve at least some of their interests going forward in the eventual 32 county Republic instead of the D.U.P.

Reunification is a foregone conclusion. It's peaceful re-integration amid a receding sectarian past that the current parties must work with. Hardliners are the walking dead in that nation, and the sun will be going down forever on their world much sooner than they had feared.
 
I respectfully disagree. The writing's on the wall. I also believe that all but the most embittered hardline Unionists also know this, and so will be looking to middle-ground groups like the Alliance Party of Northern Ireland to preserve at least some of their interests going forward in the eventual 32 county Republic instead of the D.U.P.

Reunification is a foregone conclusion. It's peaceful re-integration amid a receding sectarian past that the current parties must work with. Hardliners are the walking dead in that nation, and the sun will be going down forever on their world much sooner than they had feared.

I hope you're right, but there's enough hardened Loyalists with military experience to make life hugely difficult for the United Ireland.

I'll be there in a week in a bit, staying with Catholic friends who live in solidly Republican West Belfast, but who I reckon would be 50/50 about voting to unite in a referendum.

They've got Irish passport, their kids think of themselves as Irish, what do they actually need in a referendum they don't have now?
 

Geelong_Sicko

Brownlow Medallist
Jun 11, 2007
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I hope you're right, but there's enough hardened Loyalists with military experience to make life hugely difficult for the United Ireland.

I'll be there in a week in a bit, staying with Catholic friends who live in solidly Republican West Belfast, but who I reckon would be 50/50 about voting to unite in a referendum.

They've got Irish passport, their kids think of themselves as Irish, what do they actually need in a referendum they don't have now?
Good question. I think most of the truly objectionable reminders are just that - reminders. There is no more Royal Ulster Constabulary for one thing. As peace advances and sectarianism fades the political questions are going to be more about economy than Troubles-era stuff.

Joining the E.U within a united Ireland is a big question.
 

Saint

Norm Smith Medallist
Feb 1, 2006
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I think the NI Loyalists will not very gladly swap their current position at the top of the tree (relatively speaking), for being a smaller branch of a larger United Ireland.

I think a lot fewer of them would be willing to fight to death over it. It's very much less about religion, but still about tribe. People will defend their religion to the death, but not their loose "Loyalist" tribe.

They've all been members of the EU for decades under the UK yoke, they were happy to wear that for a while. Northern Ireland even voted to Remain.

Remain was 85% in catholics, but still 40% in Protestants. That's a long way from the 99% vote to remain in the UK when the Nationalists refused to vote in the 70's.

So 40% of Protestants were happy to remain as part of the EU. Can't see them fighting to the death over remaining in a failing UK. In the 70's and 80's, being in the UK was a significantly better economic decision than joining Ireland. Now, the reverse might be true.

I think the hard-liners will throw enough spanners in the works that it won't be a full 6-county switch from UK to Ireland and Simpkin is right, they'll try to get the best of both worlds where they can (which makes sense for everyone in NI). If they had to choose EU/Ireland or UK, I think 60%+ would be for EU/Ireland.
 

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