Which way for the pies?

[Romeoh1]

Future looks really good. They should be very well placed to go on with this form next year. Am expecting them to be right amongst it next year. I’ve really enjoyed watching them this year.
I don’t think they have a big window is all I’d say, losing Pendlebury at some point will be major and the coach and style is so intense it will be hard to maintain. So they would want to pinch one in the next couple of years.

 

[The 747]

Watching them get the ball in the middle time and time again and kick it to tall jabronis reminded me that they still have not sorted the major issue with their list. Always have to manufacture goals.

Since there is no recruitment on the horizon that solves that issue it is difficult to see them developing a dominant team.

 

[Drought Break]

Take it to the Carlton thread.

This is a thread about Collingwood, their 2022 failures, and their 2023 prospects.

just as I thought. Weak as piss.

 

[Drought Break]

Carlton familiar with 'falling short of the top'?

They've spent a decade trying to contend to be in the best 50% of sides in the comp.

and failed miserably.

Only made the finals once in last decade and that was by default after finishing 9th.

Embarrassing for them.

 

[pz5151]

Future looks really good. They should be very well placed to go on with this form next year. Am expecting them to be right amongst it next year. I’ve really enjoyed watching them this year.
I don’t think they have a big window is all I’d say, losing Pendlebury at some point will be major and the coach and style is so intense it will be hard to maintain. So they would want to pinch one in the next couple of years.

Pendlebury wouldn’t have been in their best 5 players this year so I don’t think it’s going to be as devastating a blow as people think. He’s already a fair way off the player he was at his peak and he will probably decline a bit more next year and then retire.
Sidebottom and Howe are the only other old players we have who are important and Murphy looks like he can take over from Howe and Sidebottom is also not the player he used to be.

 

[Evolved1]

6-10 next year. It's unlikely they'll win as many close games again which theoretically would have placed them around that mark this year. Their forward line is too small for mine, and Pendlebury can't defy age forever.

They caught teams by surprise through aggressive strategy at the back end of games, but looked middling for the most part. Will teams allow that to work so easily in 2023?

I'd place Geelong, Melbourne, Sydney, Richmond, and Carlton ahead of them in my current prediction for next year.

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

just as I thought. Weak as piss.

Happy to discuss the Blues in the relevant threads.

If discussing Collingwood’s failed preliminary final and bleak 2023 prospects feels like too much, take a break.

 

[Dangerousfield]

9-1 in games under 2 goals, instead split them 5-5, they finish 10th.

Which is about where their telltale % lands.

This is not a rebuild, they've added no more brand new players than a host of other sides. It's just last year was far lower than they should have been. Finished H&A 3rd in 2018, 4th in 2019, 8th in 2020 forget 2021, 4th in 2022, last year the odd one out.

Got a different style of play to beat the press, let's see what happens next year with a top six draw and a summer of oppo teams looking at their vision

 

[Romeoh1]

Pendlebury wouldn’t have been in their best 5 players this year so I don’t think it’s going to be as devastating a blow as people think. He’s already a fair way off the player he was at his peak and he will probably decline a bit more next year and then retire.
Sidebottom and Howe are the only other old players we have who are important and Murphy looks like he can take over from Howe and Sidebottom is also not the player he used to be.

Thought Pendlebury was in your best yesterday and against Geelong. Made a difference.

 

[PieLebo87]

Thought Pendlebury was in your best yesterday and against Geelong. Made a difference.

His finals series was unbelievable.

Averaged 29 (half contested), 5 tackles and 5 clearances a game, which included the 2 Grand Finalists. Such a freak!

 

[The 747]

Pendlebury wouldn’t have been in their best 5 players this year so I don’t think it’s going to be as devastating a blow as people think. He’s already a fair way off the player he was at his peak and he will probably decline a bit more next year and then retire.
Sidebottom and Howe are the only other old players we have who are important and Murphy looks like he can take over from Howe and Sidebottom is also not the player he used to be.

Really

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

Really

Probably around the 6-10 mark. He was needed to step up back into the midfield in the absence of adams and did it brilliantly

 

[PieLebo87]

Really

Yeah, I’d also agree.

1, Moore
2, nDaicos
3, Maynard
4, jDaicos
5, Crisp
6, Pendles
7, JDG
8, Lipinski
9, Elliott
10, Sidebottom

 

[pz5151]

Thought Pendlebury was in your best yesterday and against Geelong. Made a difference.

He’s been good in some games, great in others. I just mean he’s not always our best player like he was in previous years and I doubt he’ll be top 3 in the B and F this year judging by coaches votes

 

[SuperSub17]

2022 was the anti 2021

2021 they went 1-5 in close games
2022 they went 9-3

10-8 over 2 years is about par for the course.

They were always better than 17th
But never as good as 4th

Just an average side that had tails land 1 year and heads the other.

If you’re genuinely arguing with a straight face that Collingwood 2021 performed to a similar standard to Collingwood 2022, then that could be one of the worst takes ever seen on this site.

Which is saying something.

 

[gouki88]

If you’re genuinely arguing with a straight face that Collingwood 2021 performed to a similar standard to Collingwood 2022, then that could be one of the worst takes ever seen on this site.

Which is saying something.

Different coaches, different players, different gamestyle, different context (less impact of Covid) - yeah, just the same!

 

[Costanza_]

There was reasonable logic going into finals that a series of fortuitous wins had them a few spots higher than they probably should have been. But they had a ripping finals series. Came within a kick of beating the two grand finalists, and had the game last night gone another minute they would be in the GF themselves - they were absolutely steamrolling us.

Talk about the poor percentage all you want - this was a young team who kept finding ways to win, who stood up all year, and who have a huge amount to look forward to. Should be expecting another prelim next year.

 

[gouki88]

There was reasonable logic going into finals that a series of fortuitous wins had them a few spots higher than they probably should have been. But they had a ripping finals series. Came within a kick of beating the two grand finalists, and had the game last night gone another minute they would be in the GF themselves - they were absolutely steamrolling us.

Talk about the poor percentage all you want - this was a young team who kept finding ways to win, who stood up all year, and who have a huge amount to look forward to. Should be expecting another prelim next year.

 

[Jimthegreat]

McCrae found a game plan that nearly got the Pies to the ultimate, catching the opposition by complete surprise That run and gun through the corridor fatigued the opposition as that had to run back so much harder when they didn't have the ball. Pies often overrun sides in the last 15 min. Yesterday, after being dominated, they nearly pulled back a 21pts deficit with 5 min to go, as they did when they pulled back a 17pt deficit with 6 min to go in R23 and similar against Essendon. It allowed them to win the last 8 or 9 games by 2 goals or less when often they seemed done.

Issue is sides will work out that game plan over summer. Swans gave an indicator in R22 when they took the pace out of the game. Pies were lost. Thought we might have seen the same game yesterday, like 11 or 12 goals to 6 or 7 but panned out differently for some reason.

Thing is, can the Pies still be up there when that happens, especially with a tougher draw. Their percentage of 104% this year makes you think.

 

[The 747]

There was reasonable logic going into finals that a series of fortuitous wins had them a few spots higher than they probably should have been. But they had a ripping finals series. Came within a kick of beating the two grand finalists, and had the game last night gone another minute they would be in the GF themselves - they were absolutely steamrolling us.

Talk about the poor percentage all you want - this was a young team who kept finding ways to win, who stood up all year, and who have a huge amount to look forward to. Should be expecting another prelim next year.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Also they are not really a 'young' side.

 

[Sea fog]

McCrae found a game plan that nearly got the Pies to the ultimate, catching the opposition by complete surprise That run and gun through the corridor fatigued the opposition as that had to run back so much harder when they didn't have the ball. Pies often overrun sides in the last 15 min. Yesterday, after being dominated, they nearly pulled back a 21pts deficit with 5 min to go, as they did when they pulled back a 17pt deficit with 6 min to go in R23 and similar against Essendon. It allowed them to win the last 8 or 9 games by 2 goals or less when often they seemed done.

Issue is sides will work out that game plan over summer. Swans gave an indicator in R22 when they took the pace out of the game. Pies were lost. Thought we might have seen the same game yesterday, like 11 or 12 goals to 6 or 7 but panned out differently for some reason.

Thing is, can the Pies still be up there when that happens, especially with a tougher draw. Their percentage of 104% this year makes you think.

Our draw wasn't that easy, we only played Eagles and North once whereas Geelong played both twice and we played Dees and Blues twice, and Swans at SCG like we always cop. I think commerical imperative are prioritised over draw equality these days.

 

[fishardansin]

To be fair, it does take a few years in the system to find your feet and have a great influence in an AFL side. Not everyone 1-3 year player is going to be a Nick Daicos/Sam Walsh/Matt Rowell.

Reef McInnes is a special one to watch when he gets another pre-season under his belt. Was deemed best in Magpie class in his draft year. Fin Macrae is the other we hope can fill that inside midfielder need. You’ve also got Henry in there who either yields us a first rounder this year, or another 20-30+ goal season as a forward in 2023. Also from that 2002 batch, you didn’t mention Ginnivan who kicked 40 goals in his first full season.

The 2001 batch have a make or break year in 2023.

There is talent there though.

McCreery is a classy player from that bunch. If he can transfer to the midfield I can see his strength and run making him a handy Crisp replacement in a couple of years' time. I think Ginnivan is pretty overrated by pies fans. He has really good vision, quick hands and quick hand-to-foot for clever things like a dinky kick off the side of his boot. However, he has zero physical presence. If he can't apply tackles and make more contests break even to allow the cavalry to arrive then he's going to fall away. Nick Daicos is already looking like a generational player after just one year. No doubt he fills out and plays on the ball by 2024, if not next year.

However, with age comes more injuries and a loss of a yard of pace. Collingwood relied upon a kamikaze ball movement that could make them exposed, even with lowly opposition, through the middle of the game. In at least three of your wins that I saw (Essendon, Melbourne and Carlton) I would credit your victory more to your opposition throwing it away than you guys actually winning it. Of course, that is typically part of a 22-game season, but still. The Kamikaze run led to lots of late goals when teams put the cue in the rack and/or were too tired to zone defend.

As an Essendon supporter, I go into games against teams like Melbourne, Geelong and Sydney just hoping we don't lose by 10 goals. Against Collingwood, I have high expectations of a victory and both times this year left disappointed we threw the game away on one hand and happy on the other hand that a team averaging three years young could completely dominate Collingwood for half the game in a way that made me feel like we were playing north.

Collingwood could string together a bunch of close games full of heart again next year, but I would not be surprised (kind of expect) Melbourne, Geelong, Sydney, Brisbane, Richmond, Bulldogs, Carlton, Suns and Essendon to finish ahead of them. I have lots of trouble reading Saints, GWS and Freo so I'm not saying either or for them. Collingwood is the definition of a dark horse. If everything falls into place like this year with injuries and close wins then sure, could finish as high as the top 4. However, I would not be surprised to see them finish as low as 12th or 15th. It is going to be a tougher draw and all it takes is the kamikaze game to backfire (be exposed the other way) in the first 5-6 games, which will lead to a loss of confidence in it, and a roughish run with injuries and it will all fall apart.

Clearly, the plan is to offload Grundy to give you guys salary cap room and draft/trade capital. It will be interesting to see which way Collingwood goes with that. Currently, picks 16, 42, 47 and 48 are not a strong draft hand. Going to the draft with the 8 players 30+ (assuming 3 go) and 3 gun players 27 years old feels like it is go-time now. But there are teams that seem more mature and accomplished yet still younger than you and have more room for improvement. It is a quandary.

 

[The 747]

Our draw wasn't that easy, we only played Eagles and North once whereas Geelong played both twice and we played Dees and Blues twice, and Swans at SCG like we always cop. I think commerical imperative are prioritised over draw equality these days.

Ahem?

 

[fishardansin]

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Also they are not really a 'young' side.

100% they're not a young side.

	Average age match day
2022		2019
Adelaide – 24 years		Gold Coast – 24 years
Essendon – 24.6		St Kilda – 24.4
North Melbourne – 24.6		Sydney – 24.4
Hawthorn – 24.7		Western Bulldogs – 24.4
Carlton – 24.8		Carlton – 24.6
Fremantle – 25.1		Fremantle – 24.8
Gold Coast – 25.1		Melbourne – 24.8
Melbourne – 25.3		Brisbane – 25.2
Sydney – 25.3		Port Adelaide – 25.2
GWS – 25.5		Richmond – 25.2
Western Bulldogs – 25.5		Essendon – 25.3
Port Adelaide – 25.7		GWS – 25.6
Collingwood – 25.8		North Melbourne – 25.8
St Kilda – 25.8		Collingwood – 26.2
Brisbane – 26.1		Geelong – 26.2
West Coast – 26.1		West Coast – 26.2
Richmond – 26.8		Adelaide – 26.4
Geelong – 27.7		Hawthorn – 26.5

 

[Ginnieboy]

That’s the thing you didn’t beat any team of the top 4 this season. Is it luck for all.

By

That’s the thing you didn’t beat any team of the top 4 this season. Is it luck for all.

Beat Melbourne twice.