Analysis Who Dares...Wins

[Steve Dore]

Nice post. Skills are still a big issue though.

Jordan Lewis: "They're not fast. Their ball movement is fast."

Our poor skills is one thing that really slows down our ball movement. Fast ball movement comes from hitting targets as much as speed in selecting targets.

 

[TheBeardAmigos]

Jordan Lewis: "They're not fast. Their ball movement is fast."

Our poor skills is one thing that really slows down our ball movement. Fast ball movement comes from hitting targets as much as speed in selecting targets.

lets hope that Ken has identified this and will look at bringing in good ball users over the off season.

 

[snozulu]

Good post. I don't know the complete answer but i could really do with $50, i have paypal if that helps

 

[ScooterBrother]

I just threw up PS can this just morph into a thread about how terrible we are in key statistics

Also do you have our stats+competition stats for these categories in 2014?

2014 is even more stark for contested possession:

0.92 is pretty much as a strong as you're going to get for this sort of data. Whats interesting about 2014 is clearances aren't as significant, which is perhaps explained by the love affair with "slingshot" rebound footy at that time.

The El-Ratios for 2014:

 

[Andre]

"One extra elite mid and a few more hitouts to advantage from Ryder coming back" makes HH's alleged comments about not wanting to be that extra mid rankle even more doesn't it?

I also think the AFL should signal intended changes in umpiring *interpretations* as well as actual rules well before trade week, not during the last few weeks of the bloody pre-season. That might help a bit. **** changes.

For one extra mid, hopefully 2017 is the year Chad progresses into a midfielder-forward, not a forward-midfielder. Concussions, finger issues and leg issues in 2016, he was the team in a player - cluster*ed. If he can become a starting midfielder, along with Ryder's return that will help a lot.

 

[Pappagallo]

Ebert isn't built for contested situations - he's the guy you want on the end of a chain, running into space, not starting one.

Wines doesn't have the endurance to go the full distance in a game - he fact that he is in the top ten playing only 76% of the game shows what a contested beast he is.

Boak's stats are way down because he spent a bit of time at defensive forward which wasn't really his role, but we didn't have anyone else. And he's closer in body type to Ebert than Wines - an inside/outside mid that can win contested ball when needed but not really built for it.



Hartlett reminds me of Julian Washington in Any Given Sunday: "My dad says you won't take passes up the middle because you might get hurt."

Yep Ebert's running ability and strong overhead marking are his best assets, he's not the extra inside midfielder we need.

 

[PortWTF]

MI50 / I50 = ratio of marks inside 50 vs inside 50 disposals.
M Eff = ratio of disposals vs marks
Kick Ratio = ratio of kicks vs disposals
Clang % = percent of disposals that result in a clanger
CP % = percent of disposals that are contested
Clear % = percent of disposals that are clearances
HO - CL = ratio of hitouts vs clearances

Port are league worst or thereabouts for MI50 / I50, M Eff, Clang %
Port are league best or thereabouts for CP %, Clear % and HO - CL

I can't think of a better set of stats that describes everything our supporters have said is wrong with our team in 2016. The outlier is the ratio of hitouts v clearances, but can probably be explained by the fact we have such a low hit out number compared to our clearance winning ability.

I still can't work out if our opponents are forcing us in to play a highly contested game style, or we are doing it to ourselves. Last year I was convinced it was the oppositions tactics to nullify our run, after it happened again this year not so convinced. We play a highly contested, high tackle, high 1%er game style, which we are not really suited to.

 

[ScooterBrother]

Whats interesting is Port's ratios match Sydney's almost perfectly. Clearly trying to play like they are. Except for one huge area: the Clangers %.

Port burn the ball far too much to be competitive at the top end. It's too simplistic to just say "lrn to kik ya s**t campaigners" as clearly, as shown by the 2014 data, they can do it, but the difference is the space being afforded and Port's inability to churn the midfield with ball winners without robbing other areas of the ground or sacrificing your talent in the engine room

If Port can bolster the midfield with another O.Wines type, add Ryder, maybe move Wingard up a bit ... that should free up messrs Boak, Ebert, Gray and others to spread quicker. That would then mean those players have more time and space to execute. Which then means they hit their targets up forward. Which means those other ratios are boosted as kicks are hitting leads instead of bombing to 1v3.

Port miss Cassisi and Cornes more than most realise for this very reason.

 

[powermacs]

Good post Janus . Grant Thomas the other day was going on one of his rants about the umpires interpretation of the prior opportunity rule. Talked about how plays are being coached to take advantage of it as you were alluding with the dogs and co just dropping the ball.

 

[tribey]

http://www.betootaadvocate.com/unca...-i-would-eat-an-ibis-if-somebody-dared-me-to/

#whodareswins

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

This is why it was only in 2007, when Geelong recruited Selwood - an elite inside mid - that they fully unlocked the potential of their side. Suddenly, sides had to cover multiple threat outlets - Ablett, Bartel, Corey, Selwood. All four of them had no issues with getting the hard ball, which meant that they opened up space in which their teammates could operate.....

You have over played Selwood's value in 2007. At the end of 2006 the older blokes at Geelong woke up and said enough is enough of this complete s**t we have played. Some of them actually decided to become leaders and lead the club out of the s**t. They played up to their potential. Chapman was more important than Selwood in that mid field mix. James Kelly was more important in that mid field mix than Selwood. Yes Selwood has become a great player but in 2007 he was a bit player not a vital COG. He made the sort of contributions what you said in 2009 onwards. He was good enough to take full advantage in 2007 of being the 6th or 7th ranked mid fielder. Remember Ling spent most of his time in the middle as the defensive mid, but won plenty of centested ball himself, so you were always rotating 3 or 4 of those other 6 and Selwood had it relatively easy out on the wing.

Recruiting a young Selwood identical clone in the 2016 draft, is going to do very little good for us, unless our leaders and experienced players do exactly what their Geelong 2006/2007 counterparts did.

But I agree with the rest of your post.

 

[tribey]

You have over played Selwood's value in 2007. At the end of 2006 the older blokes at Geelong woke up and said enough is enough of this complete s**t we have played. Some of them actually decided to become leaders and lead the club out of the s**t. They played up to their potential. Chapman was more important than Selwood in that mid field mix. James Kelly was more important in that mid field mix than Selwood. Yes Selwood has become a great player but in 2007 he was a bit player not a vital COG. He made the sort of contributions what you said in 2009 onwards. He was good enough to take full advantage in 2007 of being the 6th or 7th ranked mid fielder. Remember Ling spent most of his time in the middle as the defensive mid, but won plenty of centested ball himself, so you were always rotating 3 or 4 of those other 6 and Selwood had it relatively easy out on the wing.

Recruiting a young Selwood identical clone in the 2016 draft, is going to do very little good for us, unless our leaders and experienced players do exactly what their Geelong 2006/2007 counterparts did.

But I agree with the rest of your post.

Selwood07 was basically Wines13. Ridiculous luxury.

Edit: Ollie's rookie year was 13 not 14, derp.

 

[Pappagallo]

Selwood07 was basically Wines13. Ridiculous luxury.

Edit: Ollie's rookie year was 13 not 14, derp.

Nailed it.

 

[Power Raid]

Nice post. Skills are still a big issue though.

skills and brains

WB and the hawks not only use the ball well in the traditional sense, they also kick the ball with a curl. this curl is a very effective tactic to create advantage to the receiver and very effective in breaking the congestion.

it is an obvious tactic used by the better teams..........so why don't we add another trick to our bag?

 

[Ando39]

Jordan Lewis: "They're not fast. Their ball movement is fast."

Our poor skills is one thing that really slows down our ball movement. Fast ball movement comes from hitting targets as much as speed in selecting targets.

One of the most amazing (yet not particularly obvious) things I've ever seen on a football field is Hawthorn a few years ago move the ball from kick-in to goal down a wing in a game against Collingwood. Its hard to describe, and doesnt sound that impressive, but they moved it with 4 precise kicks, player would mark, take about 3 steps forward, turn around, take about another 2 steps backward, then two steps forward and nail a 30m kick straight onto the chest of a teammate. From goalpost to goalpost the whole process couldnt have taken more than 6 seconds and none of the players had to put in any huge sprint efforts, it was pure skill. It was a thing of beauty. Its also an example of the fact that you will always be able to move the ball quicker through good skills than running speed.

 

[Steve Dore]

..... why don't we add another trick to our bag?

We need to be able to perform the tricks we already have in the bag before we even think of adding another one.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

One of the most amazing (yet not particularly obvious) things I've ever seen on a football field is Hawthorn a few years ago move the ball from kick-in to goal down a wing in a game against Collingwood. Its hard to describe, and doesnt sound that impressive, but they moved it with 4 precise kicks, player would mark, take about 3 steps forward, turn around, take about another 2 steps backward, then two steps forward and nail a 30m kick straight onto the chest of a teammate. From goalpost to goalpost the whole process couldnt have taken more than 6 seconds and none of the players had to put in any huge sprint efforts, it was pure skill. It was a thing of beauty. Its also an example of the fact that you will always be able to move the ball quicker through good skills than running speed.

I have seen the Hawks do something similar, but 6 seconds is a gross underestimation of how long it really took. Everything has to go perfectly right to get a goal from a centre bounce in 9 seconds. A 50m kick the ball is going to be in the air for about 3 seconds.

 

[Janus]

One of the most amazing (yet not particularly obvious) things I've ever seen on a football field is Hawthorn a few years ago move the ball from kick-in to goal down a wing in a game against Collingwood. Its hard to describe, and doesnt sound that impressive, but they moved it with 4 precise kicks, player would mark, take about 3 steps forward, turn around, take about another 2 steps backward, then two steps forward and nail a 30m kick straight onto the chest of a teammate. From goalpost to goalpost the whole process couldnt have taken more than 6 seconds and none of the players had to put in any huge sprint efforts, it was pure skill. It was a thing of beauty. Its also an example of the fact that you will always be able to move the ball quicker through good skills than running speed.

If you were to ask me "What is football perfection" the team would have the following:

1. Manic defensive pressure. Defense is where 95% of attacks are launched. A kick in? That was due to the defense pushing the goal kicker into a tighter angle and putting him under pressure. A stoppage? That was due to the defense hitting the ball out of bounds or tackling. The only time on the ground that defense doesn't generate attack is at a centre clearance where it is a neutral ball.

2. Good skills under pressure. 70%> disposal efficiency. This opens up the field of play and creates options. Players don't have to second guess because they know the ball will reach them.

3. 3-4 players around stoppages who love the contest. Skills under pressure are only good if you can actually farm the ball out to your players.

4. Genuine speed through run and carry. As the opposition sags off to cover passing lanes, space opens up for a running game because holes appear in a zone defense.

We have 1 (when we feel like it) and 4. 2 is related to 3 and 4.

Do those 4 things, and you become unstoppable - great defense, fast ball movement, relishing the contest, fast leg speed.

That's the pursuit of football mastery Ken speaks of. That is total football.

 

[Kingfish73]

You make a lot of sense. Confidence is a massive contributor. So easy to loose, and not so easy to gain. But when you have it - playing a game-style becomes much easier to coach and execute. Western Bulldogs are oozing confidence and it shows in everything they do.

 

[Ando39]

I have seen the Hawks do something similar, but 6 seconds is a gross underestimation of how long it really took. Everything has to go perfectly right to get a goal from a centre bounce in 9 seconds. A 50m kick the ball is going to be in the air for about 3 seconds.

I need to remember this analogy when defending past sexual performances. "Sure, it felt like 6 seconds, in reality it was much longer than that"

But yeah you're right. It was bloody quick though, especially considering the lack of running involved.

 

[*PAF]

Yep Ebert's running ability and strong overhead marking are his best assets, he's not the extra inside midfielder we need.

For mine it's his work ethics. One thing is guaranteed that no matter if he has a good, bad or indifferent game, he'll work his arse off.

Not too dissimilar to Thompson for the Crows. He too could have been a Port player if we hadn't tried to be so tricky and ended up tricking ourselves.

 

[Pedro59]

Nice post. Skills are still a big issue though.

EXACTLY

They slso reported how the doggies practice their handball a few times a week in confined spaces

One of my biggest criticisms all year has been
A our terrible skills
B skills are going backwards

This is coach/drill territory

As a martial art instructor I saw first hand the benefit of training under duress and at warp speed ( thought Burgess was implementing this)
My students were undefeated for ten years in our interstate comp

Now of course these drills have to be relevent and very accurate ( dont wanna train fast incorrectly otherwise mistakes are perpetuated )and then massively increase the speed so that when one slows down to finals speed ( ha ha)it is subconscious and smooth

Just like the doggies

Also look at the relaxed easy perfect F50 entries and then go away and cry at ours ( bang it in high to a tall forwrd who is being gang tackled)

I do recall ONE good f50 entry to Shultz in one of the last games
....ONE....

These skill drills and skill development and F50 entries are the coaches responsibilties

And to those who denigrate having proper skill DRILLS ( oh one should um already know how to kick or handball)
....watch the doggies in tight

Watch them go into their F50

Whew

 

[Alyx]

This one time, myself and three friends from my neighbourhood - two brothers from one family, and a single child from another - played our own version of Who Dares Wins. The first challenge, accepted by the single child, was to eat a stick of celery with a smearing of peanut butter. Our fun was cut short when he was rushed to hospital, learning there that he had an allergy to both celery and peanuts.

We never played Who Dares Wins again.

#goports

 

[JAlexG]

One of the most amazing (yet not particularly obvious) things I've ever seen on a football field is Hawthorn a few years ago move the ball from kick-in to goal down a wing in a game against Collingwood. Its hard to describe, and doesnt sound that impressive, but they moved it with 4 precise kicks, player would mark, take about 3 steps forward, turn around, take about another 2 steps backward, then two steps forward and nail a 30m kick straight onto the chest of a teammate. From goalpost to goalpost the whole process couldnt have taken more than 6 seconds and none of the players had to put in any huge sprint efforts, it was pure skill. It was a thing of beauty. Its also an example of the fact that you will always be able to move the ball quicker through good skills than running speed.

Yep and if you asked me what football was in its purest form, that would be it.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

We need some SAS mental hardness, physical hardness and smart thinking in tough situations. A 6 week SAS course over preseason might help.