Why doesn't the AFL finally put the NRL back into its place?!

[Makeshift Park]

How would R360 make any real impact to AFL? There is a relatively small overlap of player types between rugby codes and AFL.

I don't even think R360 will make a meaningful impact to the NRL, they might take a bunch of players who want to cash in a big payday, but the comp is all smoke and mirrors and player agents are using it to push up the salaries of their players.

In the AFL's key growth markets of NSW and Qld, many prospective draftees weigh up which code to join. You hear Swans academy players bang on about it all the time. So for starters, if R360 do get a global product up and running, there's a threat of talent drain from the northern zone.

Also, in terms of a sheer spectacle, if you've got a grand prix-style comp featuring heaps of Australian star players, performed in big photogenic cities like Tokyo and Cape Town, it could eat into the overall pie of broadcast rights funding, which'd have commercial implications.

But also... in spite of strong community participation in Aussie rules, fan satisfaction with the AFL as an organisation is historically low. There's a widespread sentiment that head office is putting unending revenue growth before fans' concerns. Dillon and co. seem determined to ignore people's objections to constant rule changes, shitty fixturing, rising costs of viewing, and so forth. Meanwhile, there's anger at club level in rugby heartland against teams like Wests and Dragons, because they can't get their shit together, as well as cynicism towards the broader league expansion. All this creates a fairly favourable situation for a cashed up newcomer to arrive a fresh, fan-friendly product, featuring many of the same stars people already know.

 

[PhatBoy]

If league is as low on skill level as most of the AFL fans who talk it down say it is, then it shouldn’t have a problem replacing the players who leave for R360 or filling another two teams, should it…..

For me personally, you can’t replace a Payne Haas. He’s a generational player. A prop of his size, and athleticism, his defensive ability - he so rarely misses a tackle for a player of his size it’s ridiculous, and he is smart with the angles and lines he runs, and has the ‘heart’ (yes it is a legitimate ‘skill’ for want of a better term for any front-rower) of any of the great props, cannot be replaced.

But the rest can. Zac Lomax is an ultra hard working three-quarter but his skill level isn’t anything out of the ordinary. Papenhuyzen is a good player but he’s never even played rep footy. The Roosters lost Sualii and Manu to rugby from their own centre pairing and immediately replaced them with Rob Toia who is now an Origin player in he debut season and Billy Smith who had a great year. The pathways programs should ensure there is enough talent across most positions to make up the shortfall. The only real battle is going to be convincing players to shift to Port Moresby

 

[hampton]

In the AFL's key growth markets of NSW and Qld, many prospective draftees weigh up which code to join. You hear Swans academy players bang on about it all the time. So for starters, if R360 do get a global product up and running, there's a threat of talent drain from the northern zone.

Also, in terms of a sheer spectacle, if you've got a grand prix-style comp featuring heaps of Australian star players, performed in big photogenic cities like Tokyo and Cape Town, it could eat into the overall pie of broadcast rights funding, which'd have commercial implications.

But also... in spite of strong community participation in Aussie rules, fan satisfaction with the AFL as an organisation is historically low. There's a widespread sentiment that head office is putting unending revenue growth before fans' concerns. Dillon and co. seem determined to ignore people's objections to constant rule changes, shitty fixturing, rising costs of viewing, and so forth. Meanwhile, there's anger at club level in rugby heartland against teams like Wests and Dragons, because they can't get their shit together, as well as cynicism towards the broader league expansion. All this creates a fairly favourable situation for a cashed up newcomer to arrive a fresh, fan-friendly product, featuring many of the same stars people already know.

Yeah I think that’s all predicated on this thing being a huge and ongoing success, and so far we’ve seen bugger all about it other than clandestine snippets from journo reports. We’ll see but there’s massive doubts.

I think afl and nrl are in strong positions, nrl has never been stronger in terms of fan sentiment there’s always going to be a club or two that’s struggling.

 

[hampton]

If league is as low on skill level as most of the AFL fans who talk it down say it is, then it shouldn’t have a problem replacing the players who leave for R360 or filling another two teams, should it…..

For me personally, you can’t replace a Payne Haas. He’s a generational player. A prop of his size, and athleticism, his defensive ability - he so rarely misses a tackle for a player of his size it’s ridiculous, and he is smart with the angles and lines he runs, and has the ‘heart’ (yes it is a legitimate ‘skill’ for want of a better term for any front-rower) of any of the great props, cannot be replaced.

But the rest can. Zac Lomax is an ultra hard working three-quarter but his skill level isn’t anything out of the ordinary. Papenhuyzen is a good player but he’s never even played rep footy. The Roosters lost Sualii and Manu to rugby from their own centre pairing and immediately replaced them with Rob Toia who is now an Origin player in he debut season and Billy Smith who had a great year. The pathways programs should ensure there is enough talent across most positions to make up the shortfall. The only real battle is going to be convincing players to shift to Port Moresby

League junior pathways are strong and produce star athletes that have headlined both league and union competitions. Whether it’s Wendell sailor, lote tuqiuri, Sonny bill williams, mat rogers, Israel Falau, suaali etc they were all quickly replaced by bigger and better athletes in league.

I agree Payne Haas is a big loss, irreplaceable one, but he also doesn’t have some of the star power that guys like Reece Walsh have. He will be a big loss but not a damaging one for the nrl, and there will be more great forwards to come through.

Lomax is a good winger, but those are a dime a dozen in league. Not a big loss. Paps is injury prone and best days are behind him, he’s one more injury away from retirement.

There will be others that go im sure, but I don’t think there’s much to worry about. In the longer term yes if r360 is popular it may impact the nrl and afl.

However r360 could decimate union competitions, it could be their version of the super league wars.

 

[Macca180]

If league is as low on skill level as most of the AFL fans who talk it down say it is, then it shouldn’t have a problem replacing the players who leave for R360 or filling another two teams, should it…..

For me personally, you can’t replace a Payne Haas. He’s a generational player. A prop of his size, and athleticism, his defensive ability - he so rarely misses a tackle for a player of his size it’s ridiculous, and he is smart with the angles and lines he runs, and has the ‘heart’ (yes it is a legitimate ‘skill’ for want of a better term for any front-rower) of any of the great props, cannot be replaced.

But the rest can. Zac Lomax is an ultra hard working three-quarter but his skill level isn’t anything out of the ordinary. Papenhuyzen is a good player but he’s never even played rep footy. The Roosters lost Sualii and Manu to rugby from their own centre pairing and immediately replaced them with Rob Toia who is now an Origin player in he debut season and Billy Smith who had a great year. The pathways programs should ensure there is enough talent across most positions to make up the shortfall. The only real battle is going to be convincing players to shift to Port Moresby

Different skills. RL are skilful and the best at what they do.

But if you really want to compare kicking a ball under pressure and hitting targets 20 to 40 m away with defenders coming at you from 360 degrees v throwing the ball metres seeing what's coming its flipping obvious which skills are harder.

If you want to compare physical attrition in terms of taking hit after hit and keep going then RL wins.

Not sure how anyone can think RL requires more skill than AFL IF you really have to compare them.

Look at the women's competitions in both sports if you need some evidence. RL women's looks way better/cleaner than AFL women's. I wonder why ????

 

[PhatBoy]

Different skills. RL are skilful and the best at what they do.

But if you really want to compare kicking a ball under pressure and hitting targets 20 to 40 m away with defenders coming at you from 360 degrees v throwing the ball metres seeing what's coming its flipping obvious which skills are harder.

If you want to compare physical attrition in terms of taking hit after hit and keep going then RL wins.

Not sure how anyone can think RL requires more skill than AFL IF you really have to compare them.

Look at the women's competitions in both sports if you need some evidence. RL women's looks way better/cleaner than AFL women's. I wonder why ????

The repetitive use of the skills at their most demanding is higher in AFL. You precision kick more often. A basic left to right pass in R/L is a fairly simple skill relative to a kick to a target or a kick at goal, in both situations if under any pressure, in AFL. But you grossly underestimate the skill level it takes to execute a pass to a teammate with a line of defenders coming at both you, and the intended receiver, where the pass has to firstly go backwards, but also hit the teammate where they are going to be after they’ve run forward and into the gap you’re intending them to run into. So yes in terms of repetition I would concur but as far as the decisive skills go when push comes to shove, it’s a pretty uneducated view to just say ‘kicking the ball to a target is harder’ etc etc.

The women’s NRL players have all been playing a form of football since they were kids. Starting with touch, through league tag and in a lot of cases I would say they’ve probably played women’s rugby as well which has been around for donkey’s years. They come equipped with many of the necessary skills.

Not all, but I would say a lot of the AFLW players have come later into the sport. I don’t doubt that many have a grounding in Auskick but I also suspect that a lot have come from other sports as well. And you’re right, the kicking aspect IS a tough thing to absolutely master. But it doesn’t help if you haven’t had that drilled into you from a young age.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

The repetitive use of the skills at their most demanding is higher in AFL. You precision kick more often. A basic left to right pass in R/L is a fairly simple skill relative to a kick to a target or a kick at goal, in both situations if under any pressure, in AFL. But you grossly underestimate the skill level it takes to execute a pass to a teammate with a line of defenders coming at both you, and the intended receiver, where the pass has to firstly go backwards, but also hit the teammate where they are going to be after they’ve run forward and into the gap you’re intending them to run into. So yes in terms of repetition I would concur but as far as the decisive skills go when push comes to shove, it’s a pretty uneducated view to just say ‘kicking the ball to a target is harder’ etc etc.

The women’s NRL players have all been playing a form of football since they were kids. Starting with touch, through league tag and in a lot of cases I would say they’ve probably played women’s rugby as well which has been around for donkey’s years. They come equipped with many of the necessary skills.

Not all, but I would say a lot of the AFLW players have come later into the sport. I don’t doubt that many have a grounding in Auskick but I also suspect that a lot have come from other sports as well. And you’re right, the kicking aspect IS a tough thing to absolutely master. But it doesn’t help if you haven’t had that drilled into you from a young age.

In the NRL, the immense concentration you have to hold to hold the defensive line, and read cues in the opposition for the angles they'll take and decision the opposition makes is so different to the AFL, where if you lose your concentration in patches in games, its not the end of the world.

Vastly different skillsets that you can't really compare the two sports, but the idea that anyone in any sport that the players are earning hundreds of thousands of dollars and are full-time professionals is being "unskilled" seems a bit strange to me. Greco-Roman wrestlers in the Olympics from one of the Stan countries have wrestled since the were kids, train hard, are incredibly skilled and have concentration and understanding of their opponent's body movement cues, yet because they don't handle a ball at all, by the same logic these AFL fans are claiming that being an Olympic wrestler is "unskilled", which to me is ridiculous.

 

[PhatBoy]

In the NRL, the immense concentration you have to hold to hold the defensive line, and read cues in the opposition for the angles they'll take and decision the opposition makes is so different to the AFL, where if you lose your concentration in patches in games, its not the end of the world.

Vastly different skillsets that you can't really compare the two sports, but the idea that anyone in any sport that the players are earning hundreds of thousands of dollars and are full-time professionals is being "unskilled" seems a bit strange to me. Greco-Roman wrestlers in the Olympics from one of the Stan countries have wrestled since the were kids, train hard, are incredibly skilled and have concentration and understanding of their opponent's body movement cues, yet because they don't handle a ball at all, by the same logic these AFL fans are claiming that being an Olympic wrestler is "unskilled", which to me is ridiculous.

Pretty good way to sum it up.
Chris Scott has actually said a few times when he talks about the nooks and crannies the Cats look for talent - like steeplechasing for example… that the kicking aspect, while difficult to ‘coach’ to a level where it is at, say, Darren Jarman levels of just freak brilliance, is the most straightforward part of getting those guys up to AFL standard. He talked about it as though getting them to a stage where they are at least ‘capable’ is the easy part. Getting them to read the game etc is the hard part.

Same in league. I could - by virtue of being fairly broad and in layman’s terms, fat, smack most people that ran at me. I had a good tackling technique and being at average height, I was well built to tackle ‘in and under’ and I could also shoulder charge when it was still legal. But reading defence was an incredibly hard skill and I would as an ironclad rule ensure that I was always defending next to one bloke in particular who had nowhere near the same genetic tools I had, he was about 25kg lighter, but as a second rower he could read virtually any attacking play coming in our direction and clean up any stuff up I made if the ball runner wasn’t coming straight at me and forcing me to make a decision.

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

The repetitive use of the skills at their most demanding is higher in AFL. You precision kick more often. A basic left to right pass in R/L is a fairly simple skill relative to a kick to a target or a kick at goal, in both situations if under any pressure, in AFL. But you grossly underestimate the skill level it takes to execute a pass to a teammate with a line of defenders coming at both you, and the intended receiver, where the pass has to firstly go backwards, but also hit the teammate where they are going to be after they’ve run forward and into the gap you’re intending them to run into. So yes in terms of repetition I would concur but as far as the decisive skills go when push comes to shove, it’s a pretty uneducated view to just say ‘kicking the ball to a target is harder’ etc etc.

The women’s NRL players have all been playing a form of football since they were kids. Starting with touch, through league tag and in a lot of cases I would say they’ve probably played women’s rugby as well which has been around for donkey’s years. They come equipped with many of the necessary skills.

Not all, but I would say a lot of the AFLW players have come later into the sport. I don’t doubt that many have a grounding in Auskick but I also suspect that a lot have come from other sports as well. And you’re right, the kicking aspect IS a tough thing to absolutely master. But it doesn’t help if you haven’t had that drilled into you from a young age.

I think people overplay how 'skillful' AFL is.. The very fact the Irish imports and someone like Mason Cox and even Israel Falou can become professional players having never touched a Sherrin before to me suggests its not as complex as many AFL fans try to make others believe.

 

[PhatBoy]

I think people overplay how 'skillful' AFL is.. The very fact the Irish imports and someone like Mason Cox and even Israel Falou can become professional players having never touched a Sherrin before to me suggests its not as complex as many AFL fans try to make others believe.

As I alluded to before I think when you get to the absolute top end: hitting a running target when you yourself are on the run and getting the ball to the point where they mark it out in front, or kicking a goal on the run particularly on an angle etc: that’s an incredibly precise skill and not just ‘anyone’ can rock up and do it. But kicking to an ‘area’ isn’t that difficult or putting the ball to someone’s advantage when they’re in space.

They’re are numerous examples in towns that have both codes of players who try and play both and they can’t adapt from one to the other. In other cases you get players who do it easily - both ways. One of our league club’s best fullbacks while I was there also won a B and F at the local AFL club. He had grown up playing both and his skills just transferred really well across both games for his roles.

 

[lalorGOAT]

I think people overplay how 'skillful' AFL is.. The very fact the Irish imports and someone like Mason Cox and even Israel Falou can become professional players having never touched a Sherrin before to me suggests its not as complex as many AFL fans try to make others believe.

You serious? These "Irish imports" are among the very best in their sport. It's like sending Daicos to Ireland and being shocked when he's good at Gaelic football.

Mason Cox is 4 metres tall and was a college athlete. Israel Folau was among the very best rugby and struggled to do much in the afl.

 

[Clark G]

I think people overplay how 'skillful' AFL is.. The very fact the Irish imports and someone like Mason Cox and even Israel Falou can become professional players having never touched a Sherrin before to me suggests its not as complex as many AFL fans try to make others believe.

Folau was poached due to his name and standing, not his capability of playing AFL footy. And as shown in the year he played, he was not very capable in the code, hence his quick switch to union.

 

[Canberra Pear]

AFL growth is stagnating in NSW north of the Barassi Line because the AFL are too focused on Queensland and have been ever since the 2020 season. It doesn't help that cost of living is around 15% higher in Sydney compared to the other states yet Swans/Giants have to abide by the same salary cap/soft cap as everyone else. It's also unfair seeing the Suns having exclusive access to gold mines of talent in their academies while we've had to deal with the AFL taking the Riverina zone away from us.

If you want to grow in NSW, the answer is a team in Canberra.

NSW/ACT has 9 million people. 7 million of that is between Illawarra and Coffs Habour. Right now you have 1.7 teams covering that area.

Canberra can properly cover the million-plus people in the ACT/SNSW and leave two full-time teams covering from Wollongong up.

 

[hampton]

If you want to grow in NSW, the answer is a team in Canberra.

NSW/ACT has 9 million people. 7 million of that is between Illawarra and Coffs Habour. Right now you have 1.7 teams covering that area.

Canberra can properly cover the million-plus people in the ACT/SNSW and leave two full-time teams covering from Wollongong up.

This argument is great, on paper. But on paper, GWS also makes sense as a team that services a densely populated area in Sydney of 3m+. The afl thought that it would be a slam dunk, if they could capture just 5% of that population that’s a base of 150,000 fans. However it hasn’t succeeded as to expectations. The demand isn’t there as expected.

Yes I know if they played all their games in gws it might help them better embed in the area, but it doesn’t seem like the area is crying out for more games with next to no sellouts in their 20k stadium in 14 years.

Just diluting that nsw/act market even more with yet another team that will need as much support and concessions as gws does.

Still think the best option for team 20 is WA3 with Canberra a distant second behind them as a next best option.

NSW growth of afl is still happening but very slow outside of the swans market in the inner city areas. Growth in QLD is higher but could be argued that it’s primarily driven from ex victorians living there.

 

[Canberra Pear]

This argument is great, on paper. But on paper, GWS also makes sense as a team that services a densely populated area in Sydney of 3m+. However it hasn’t succeeded as to expectations.

Yes I know if they played all their games in gws it might help them better embed in the area, but it doesn’t seem like the area is crying out for more games with next to no sellouts in their 20k stadium in 14 years.

You pretty much answered your own question. They're not selling out because they have one foot out the door.

Crowds also seem to dip after their prolonged absence. It's a real momentum killer.

Just diluting that nsw/act market even more with yet another team that will need as much support and concessions as gws does.

Canberra and Sydney are two different markets. Very few people are regularly travelling the 6-hour round trip. A Canberra team isn’t diluting that.

Canberra also wouldn't need as much support as the Giants. We've already proven ourselves more capable of a footy market.

Still think the best option for team 20 is WA3 with Canberra a distant second behind them as a next best option.

Not sure why everybody just thinks WA3 is a slam dunk. They would be Western United to WC's and Freo's Melbourne Victory and City. A weird third wheel nobody asked for weakening the two-team-town rivalry.

 

[hampton]

You pretty much answered your own question. They're not selling out because they have one foot out the door.

Crowds also seem to dip after their prolonged absence. It's a real momentum killer.



Canberra and Sydney are two different markets. Very few people are regularly travelling the 6-hour round trip. A Canberra team isn’t diluting that.

Canberra also wouldn't need as much support as the Giants. We've already proven ourselves more capable of a footy market.



Not sure why everybody just thinks WA3 is a slam dunk. They would be Western United to WC's and Freo's Melbourne Victory and City. A weird third wheel nobody asked for weakening the two-team-town rivalry.

The only way to know for sure if the gws population will ignite if they have a few more home games in Homebush would be to do that before even entertaining the notion of a Canberra team.

Let’s keep them at gws for a few years and see what happens.

My gut feeling says it won’t make as big of a difference as you think it will.

 

[hampton]

WA3 would be a slam dunk. Having extra rivalry games in WA, an extra team to mop up fans where WC are basically full and dockers are big already. Servicing a growing and wealthy population that is already big on afl with plenty of sponsors to boot. It literally can’t fail.

Canberra even if succeeding will be a small regional club at best without a whole heap of fans not doing much for the next tv deals. Most likely will be needing concessions if not as much as gws - close to it. And higher chances of diluting gws - it will definitely impact gws as theyre being propped up by Canberra currently can they afford to lose supporters?

 

[Canberra Pear]

The only way to know for sure if the gws population will ignite if they have a few more home games in Homebush would be to do that before even entertaining the notion of a Canberra team.

Let’s keep them at gws for a few years and see what happens.

My gut feeling says it won’t make as big of a difference as you think it will.

I'd much rather a Victorian team play in Canberra. Would allow the Giants to go all-in, and it would mean our fate wasn't tied to the performance of another team.

 

[hampton]

I'd much rather a Victorian team play in Canberra. Would allow the Giants to go all-in, and it would mean our fate wasn't tied to the performance of another team.

Yes for sure I think we need to see gws actually be gws without being propped up by Canberra.

I just don’t think it makes any sense to talk about a dedicated Canberra team without having gws swim on its own.

And if that’s not happening or not possible then just make gws a new name like The Giants and have them split between western Sydney and Canberra permanently and be done with it.

 

[Canberra Pear]

WA3 would be a slam dunk. Having extra rivalry games in WA, an extra team to mop up fans where WC are basically full and dockers are big already. Servicing a growing and wealthy population that is already big on afl with plenty of sponsors to boot. It literally can’t fail.

Canberra even if succeeding will be a small regional club at best without a whole heap of fans or doing much for the next tv deals.

The A-League thought Western United and Macarthur were slam dunks, too.

Not saying it would fail, but they risk remaining very small in the shadows of their big brothers. 20k at Manuka looks a lot better than 20k at Optus.

Servicing a growing and wealthy population

You've literally described Canberra. The fastest growing state/territory for the past two censuses with a median income 40% higher than Perth.

 

[hampton]

The A-League thought Western United and Macarthur were slam dunks, too.

Not saying it would fail, but they risk remaining very small in the shadows of their big brothers. 20k at Manuka looks a lot better than 20k at Optus.



You've literally described Canberra. The fastest growing state/territory for the past two censuses with a median income 40% higher than Perth.

A-league is small fries in Melbourne, unlike afl in WA. Not a fair comparison. They weren’t selling out large stadiums before the new teams came in.

Sure but Canberra is a quarter the size of Perth. And is not a capital city metro with the sponsors and tv pull.

 

[Canberra Pear]

Yes for sure I think we need to see gws actually be gws without being propped up by Canberra.

I just don’t think it makes any sense to talk about a dedicated Canberra team without having gws swim on its own.

And if that’s not happening or not possible then just make gws a new name like the western giants and have them split between western Sydney and Canberra permanently and be done with it.

I've mentioned this elsewhere, but there's a real fork in the road coming up in the Giants-Canberra relationship.

There may well be no further expansion for decades after Team 20. Canberra makes sense, and the Giants could block us from our only real chance at a team.

We've been supporting the Giants as the defacto team, but if that happens, many Canberrans could no longer do that. I'd be handing in my membership and will rarely attend a Giants game and I know I'm not the only one.

If the Giants are the reason we miss out, I think you'll see something similar to North crowds in Hobart.

 

[Canberra Pear]

A-league is small fries in Melbourne, unlike afl in WA. Not a fair comparison. They weren’t selling out large stadiums before the new teams came in.

Melbourne Victory have been the biggest club in the land for yonks, and Sydney is often touted as the home of soccer.

The five seasons preceding Western United's entry, Victory averaged very similar percentage of capacity that West Coast have been.

Not a perfect analogy, but they're the only situations where an Australian city has had a third team added. The circumstances line up pretty well. And neither went well.

Sure but Canberra is a quarter the size of Perth. And is not a capital city metro with the sponsors and tv pull.

Quarter of the size, but centre of the Capital Region at almost a third the size (that doesn't include the Riverina). Also much wealthier; not competing against two major AFL teams; and home to huge contracting firms all looking to get visibility in front of government departments (Thales, Deloitte etc).

 

[hampton]

Melbourne Victory have been the biggest club in the land for yonks, and Sydney is often touted as the home of soccer.

The five seasons preceding Western United's entry, Victory averaged very similar percentage of capacity that West Coast have been.

Not a perfect analogy, but they're the only situations where an Australian city has had a third team added. The circumstances line up pretty well. And neither went well.



Quarter of the size, but centre of the Capital Region at almost a third the size (that doesn't include the Riverina). Also much wealthier; not competing against two major AFL teams; and home to huge contracting firms all looking to get visibility in front of government departments (Thales, Deloitte etc).

How many fans, crowds, tv viewers have Melbourne victory got compared to west coast eagles? Probably not even a fraction. It’s a similar scenario but very different scale and context.

Yeah I think Canberra has merit if it didn’t have those things it wouldn’t even be worth talking about. But still I just don’t think it compares favourably to a WA3. This is obviously just my opinion but I’m thinking in the current context of the afl, where there are multiple clubs that seem to be on a permanent life line from the afl with more to come (Tasmania).

Had the afl not gone into Tasmania, or even GWS 14 years ago, I’d have said go Canberra as a real growth opportunity. But can AFL really support all these clubs indefinitely, what happens if the next tv deal isn’t as big. WA3 is an antidote to all the expansion clubs and struggling Victorian clubs.

 

[Canberra Pear]

How many fans, crowds, tv viewers have Melbourne victory got compared to west coast eagles? Probably not even a fraction. It’s a similar scenario but very different scale and context.

Of course it's not going to be identical, but there's a real risk of a similar pattern.

The scale is different, but that's because even more is expected of an AFL team.

But both of them showed the pitfalls a third team can bring. Both Sydney and Melbourne are big centres where soccer is popular. They both have fanatical supporters already and two-team rivalries.

And both entries have been largely irrelevant. Macarthur limps along for crowds despite being in a soccer hotbed and Western United didn't survive at all.

I'm not saying it will be identical, but there are absolutely lessons to be learned there. WA3 risks becoming an irrelevant third wheel.

Yeah I think Canberra has merit if it didn’t have those things it wouldn’t even be worth talking about. But still I just don’t think it compares favourably to a WA3. This is obviously just my opinion but I’m thinking in the current context of the afl, where there are multiple clubs that seem to be on a permanent life line from the afl with more to come (Tasmania).

Had the afl not gone into Tasmania, or even GWS 14 years ago, I’d have said go Canberra as a real growth opportunity. But can AFL really support all these clubs indefinitely, what happens if the next tv deal isn’t as big. WA3 is an antidote to all the expansion clubs and struggling Victorian clubs.

WA3 will be a lower-to-mid-sized club. They'll probably get bigger average crowds than Canberra (boosted by derbies), but they'll also have to pay $1-million-plus in a WAFC royalty and have a high breakeven rent at Optus where they lose money for games against the Suns and Giants.

Conversely, a Canberra team will get $3m from the ACT Govt, and precedent suggests the ACT Govt would likely offer favourable Manuka conditions (in-season naming rights, signage etc). Those combined would give Canberra a ~$7m headstart over a WA3 side (~$8m including the royalty).

All those put Canberra and WA3 in the same ballpark. And if they cost relatively the same, you'd pick the option that actually expands the competition.