What are the chances he either dies of the virus or an apparent suicide this month
-
Weekly Prize - Join Any Time - Tip Round 9
The Golden Ticket - MCG and Marvel Medallion Club tickets and Corporate Box tickets at the Gabba, MCG and Marvel.
Round 8 Winner: bearweger
Science/Environment Wuhan Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Pandemic Declared
- Thread starter Lethality
- Start date
- Tagged users None
- Status
What are the chances he either dies of the virus or an apparent suicide this month
Seems like he's going out his way to get whatever he can. Already gone through a heart attack and coronavirus.
Too many people watch Sky News/Fox News/Infowars and think that they know all they need to know.
Mix that intellectual laziness with the Dunning-Kruger effect and you have the mindset of far too many modern Anglos.
nobbyiscool
Cancelled
WWE Board
Goosed
Sweet F.A Sikh Volunteers Charity Match
Tasmanian Team
NFL Fantasy Comp Champion
Armchair Endzone Major Comp Champion
- Aug 11, 2006
- 21,110
- 23,517
One of my best friends is over there at the moment.
She chose to stay in El Salvador rather than return home, because she has more confidence in their government to preserve their health and the economic welfare of workers.
And she was right. Which is a shocking indictment on our government's performance.
- Banned
- #9,305
average hund fund is down 9% this year
S&P down 24%
how did they do that. but savvy blokes
no insider trading im sure ?
S&P down 24%
how did they do that. but savvy blokes
no insider trading im sure ?
Depends on the fund, some funds are Long/short, some are short (who will profit from it), some a defensive/bond funds, who won't lose much. Some are currency funds etc.
- Jul 30, 2018
- 11,782
- 15,178
- AFL Club
- Fremantle
- Banned
- #9,307
I did, as did many people in January.
- Jul 30, 2018
- 11,782
- 15,178
- AFL Club
- Fremantle
- Banned
- #9,308
Presenting the woota and FRUMPY in a lab doing science: deaths outside China stats
The next week:
The graph
Million mark: 18 April 2020
Logistic max deaths: 44,000
---
Fewer deaths than the night before! Could be an artefact of it being a Sunday, but this is the first time it undershot the logistic model in 10 days.
| DATE | EXPONENTIAL MODEL | LOGISTIC MODEL | CASES |
| 05/03/2020 | 290 | 290 | 273 |
| 06/03/2020 | 340 | 320 | 345 |
| 07/03/2020 | 420 | 420 | 421 |
| 08/03/2020 | 520 | 520 | 503 |
| 09/03/2020 | 610 | 600 | 709 |
| 10/03/2020 | 870 | 870 | 883 |
| 11/03/2020 | 1100 | 1100 | 1134 |
| 12/03/2020 | 1500 | 1500 | 1460 |
| 13/03/2020 | 1900 | 1900 | 1786 |
| 14/03/2020 | 2300 | 2200 | 2233 |
| 15/03/2020 | 2800 | 2700 | 2631 |
| 16/03/2020 | 3400 | 3100 | 3291 |
| 17/03/2020 | 4100 | 3900 | 3918 |
| 18/03/2020 | 4900 | 4600 | 4749 |
| 19/03/2020 | 5900 | 5600 | 5684 |
| 20/03/2020 | 7000 | 6600 | 6928 |
| 21/03/2020 | 8400 | 8200 | 8269 |
| 22/03/2020 | 10000 | 9800 | 9924 |
| 23/03/2020 | 12000 | 12000 | 11489 |
The next week:
| DATE | EXPONENTIAL FORECAST | LOGISTIC FORECAST |
| 24/03/2020 | 14000 | 13000 |
| 25/03/2020 | 17000 | 16000 |
| 26/03/2020 | 20000 | 18000 |
| 27/03/2020 | 24000 | 20000 |
| 28/03/2020 | 29000 | 22000 |
| 29/03/2020 | 34000 | 25000 |
| 30/03/2020 | 41000 | 27000 |
The graph
Million mark: 18 April 2020
Logistic max deaths: 44,000
---
Fewer deaths than the night before! Could be an artefact of it being a Sunday, but this is the first time it undershot the logistic model in 10 days.
Last edited:
https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/det...e-development-lessons-from-the-ebola-outbreak
Constant mutation and adaptation are the survival mechanisms of the microbial world. Changes in the way humanity inhabits the planet have given viruses and bacteria multiple new opportunities to exploit. New diseases are now emerging at an unprecedented rate. No one expects this trend to end.
Moreover, in a world of radically increased interdependence, international travel, and trade, there is no such thing as a local outbreak anymore.
Recent large outbreaks, just since the start of this century, have shattered a number of assumptions about the world’s vulnerability to new and re-emerging diseases, like Ebola.
As the century began, most experts believed that the exotic pathogens that cause so much misery in the developing world would never threaten wealthy countries, with their high standards of living and well-developed health systems.
...
Like these other outbreaks, Ebola in West Africa delivered a number of surprises. Understanding these surprises brings lessons that can help the world prepare for similar events in the future. They are certain to come.
Perhaps they may have erred on the side of caution - in light of the above?
Even so, on a local level, current health guidelines in Victoria say you are at risk if you have close personal contact is at least 15 minutes face-to-face or more than two hours in the same room. Other guidelines suggest that it can transmit in a single instance. Other guidelines refer to surface transmissions.
The start of this epidemic had experts suggesting that masks don't make you any safer from acquiring the virus - until they relented and basically said "hahaha jk folks. we only told you that so you wouldn't buy them all!". (I agree with the notion - but what a shithouse way to message it).
I understand this is a new virus and hard to give concrete advice about - however, the advice from the 'experts' is often confusing and contradictory. I don't know if I'm getting genuine health advice or "politically convenient" health advice. It's no wonder many don't trust them.
Last edited:
Even Bill gates said in 2015 that this will be our undoing. Like we know a big market crash and grand recession is coming for a while but it's hard to pin point the trigger. If you do, you will cause panic. Putting yourself on a spot is something you and i can do, but hardly a government body or similar like WHO will do on health related issues. On economic issues most of them do it, but on such sensitive issues they aren't doing that unless there is a 100 percent certainty.
nobbyiscool
Cancelled
WWE Board
Goosed
Sweet F.A Sikh Volunteers Charity Match
Tasmanian Team
NFL Fantasy Comp Champion
Armchair Endzone Major Comp Champion
- Aug 11, 2006
- 21,110
- 23,517
Such a pertinent comment after the debacle from Morrison and CMO Marshall last night. Marshall was just ******* guessing when he started talking about the lack of evidence about children being carriers.
- Jul 30, 2018
- 11,782
- 15,178
- AFL Club
- Fremantle
- Banned
- #9,312
For any virus that already exists in mammals, we're the most fertile field you could imagine. Make that jump across species and you have 7.8 billion replication vessels in the space of a year.
main hope seems to be that any arrivals with cv19 seriously self isolate and don’t add to the community transmission. Which isn’t the major part of new infections, but we really don’t know do we?
363 new cases in Oz today, still keeping up with the projections. The figures in Germany are starting to get ugly, i hope they haven't hit the wall there.
- Jun 14, 2013
- 13,076
- 15,681
- AFL Club
- Essendon
Does anyone have a link to long term projections based on mathematical modeling?
for Australia? i don't think so.
The dawn princess could potentially use all the icu beds in nsw on their own. Very tricky
- Jul 30, 2018
- 11,782
- 15,178
- AFL Club
- Fremantle
- Banned
- #9,322
This is what Ron said yesterday:
Seems like a reasonable forecast to me, although I have a bit of faith in how much we've been testing, the situation with the cruise ship(s) has been a bit troubling.
- Mar 30, 2013
- 3,053
- 4,537
- AFL Club
- Fremantle
- Other Teams
- VFL
I would multiply the figures of infected from 10-20. With 20 being the extreme outlier.
You can't tell how many are infected without testing. So Australia with lax testing I would multiply confirmed cases by 18 to have an idea on actual cases.
You can't tell how many are infected without testing. So Australia with lax testing I would multiply confirmed cases by 18 to have an idea on actual cases.
Posted last Tuesday
Not a bad effort - Today in SMH
The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age have spoken to senior sources in the banking and the forecasting sectors who said their analysis showed Australia was headed for an unemployment rate of 15 per cent or more. It currently stands at 5.1 per cent.
www.smh.com.au
Not a bad effort - Today in SMH
The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age have spoken to senior sources in the banking and the forecasting sectors who said their analysis showed Australia was headed for an unemployment rate of 15 per cent or more. It currently stands at 5.1 per cent.
Coronavirus: Two million Australians face unemployment
Two million Australians could be without a job as companies sack workers due to restrictions aimed at stopping the spread of the coronavirus.
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked
