Science/Environment Wuhan Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Pandemic Declared

[FRUMPY]

If you listen to the experts there is really only 3 possibilities
(1) Vaccination
(2) Dies out by itself, like SARS
(3) It's here for good and continues to mutate.

I just don't know which Facebook or bigfooty expert to believe though

I'll vote (1), should do a poll

Sent from my CPH1879 using Tapatalk

 

[Total Power]

There are more people infected currently, known infected, than there is ventilators if they take a turn.

So five times this many and it's ugly time, assuming 20% need critical care.

It doesnt look like the number of seriously ill patients are as high as in the US/Italy/Spain/France/Switzerland, yet.

 

[Total Power]

There are more people infected currently, known infected, than there is ventilators if they take a turn.

So five times this many and it's ugly time, assuming 20% need critical care.

Jumped to +422 all of a sudden. Not good, at this rate we are tracking the same as many other countries in the top 10.

 

[Roby]

Presenting the its free real estate is pretty cool: deaths outside China stats

DATE	EXPONENTIAL MODEL	LOGISTIC MODEL	CASES
05/03/2020	290	290	273
06/03/2020	340	320	345
07/03/2020	420	420	421
08/03/2020	520	520	503
09/03/2020	610	600	709
10/03/2020	870	870	883
11/03/2020	1100	1100	1134
12/03/2020	1500	1500	1460
13/03/2020	1900	1900	1786
14/03/2020	2300	2200	2233
15/03/2020	2800	2700	2631
16/03/2020	3400	3100	3291
17/03/2020	4100	3900	3918
18/03/2020	4900	4600	4749
19/03/2020	5900	5600	5684
20/03/2020	7000	6600	6928
21/03/2020	8400	8200	8269
22/03/2020	10000	9800	9924
23/03/2020	12000	12000	11489
24/03/2020	14000	13000	13237

The next week:

DATE	EXPONENTIAL FORECAST	LOGISTIC FORECAST
25/03/2020	16000	15000
26/03/2020	19000	17000
27/03/2020	23000	19000
28/03/2020	27000	21000
29/03/2020	32000	23000
30/03/2020	38000	25000
31/03/2020	45000	27000

The graph




View attachment 845956


Million mark: 19 April 2020
Logistic max deaths: 38,000

---

Another night where the reported cases were slightly under the logistic forecast. The forecast was 1900-2200 deaths, and we had ~1700. So the rate looks like it is slowing down. This is mostly due to Italy getting a handle on things - the shutdowns are working!

Tonight's forecast: 2000-2500. I think it will undershoot again.

Who would've thought that distancing the incubators would stop or slow the incubation.

 

[drd23]

This guy is a Nobel Laureate and Stanford biophysicist. Made some eerily accurate predictions on China decreasing deaths. It may be bs but I’ll take a little more less gloomy news.

Why this Nobel laureate predicts a quicker coronavirus recovery: 'We're going to be fine'

A Nobel laureate predicted China's recovery weeks before it happened. Analyzing the numbers, he sees a much brighter global outcome than many experts.

www.latimes.com

Could have sworn I read basically the same article last week.

The text of the article basically just explains that the rate of infections follows a logistic curve and that social distancing/ lockdowns work. It says nothing about how long social distancing will need to be in place for or what happens if social distancing isn't/wasn't instituted quickly enough or adhered to.

 

[Total Power]

Who would've thought that distancing the incubators would stop the incubation.

Trumpf is about to reopen America. LOL

 

[Rotayjay]

In my workplace, it's an open plan office. Someone went home early today with a cough. My manager walked up to said person's desk, whipped out a can of Glen 20 and sprayed the whole desk. My colleagues and I all had a chuckle amongst ourselves. 'We're done,' I laughed.

 

[hamohawk1]

View attachment 845954

https://lnkd.in/f8_d-EQ

When has society (particularly western society) been proactive with an issue of late. Think Bushfires, Climate Change, GFC its always wait an act because we 'cant' afford the costs associated at the time.

 

[Dry Rot]

Jumped to +422 all of a sudden. Not good, at this rate we are tracking the same as many other countries in the top 10.

Yep, been posting that for a while.

That's our future.

Me and and a mate did some rough sums and reckon that the NSW hospital system will be overwhelmed by 9 April, if not before.

 

[RudyBlue]

There are more people infected currently, known infected, than there is ventilators if they take a turn.

So five times this many and it's ugly time, assuming 20% need critical care.

Highest estimate I’ve seen for needing critical care is 10% and that is likely in a stressed healthcare system.

 

[Power Raid]

dumb people making dumb policy decisions

 

[Evolved1]

Trumpf is about to reopen America. LOL

Welcome to the United States of Zombieland.

 

[Rodney Dangerfield]

Trumpf is about to reopen America. LOL

Which will it be?
He leaves a legacy never to be forgotten as an absurd amount of Americans die?
Or
Mayhem as all of a sudden the problem stops and Big Donny revels in being the hero who turned it around and saved the world? Creating the largest conspiracy theory ever to which Donny just shrugs his shoulders?

I am tipping the former but neither would surprise me to be honest!

 

[Total Power]

Which will it be?
He leaves a legacy never to be forgotten as an absurd amount of Americans die?
Or
Mayhem as all of a sudden the problem stops and Big Donny revels in being the hero who turned it around and saved the world? Creating the largest conspiracy theory ever to which Donny just shrugs his shoulders?

I am tipping the former but neither would surprise me to be honest!

Considering the US cases been through the roof and hospitals are already reporting stress. If you ever need evidence that he is a moron, here it is.

 

[RudyBlue]

Yep, been posting that for a while.

That's our future.

Me and and a mate did some rough sums and reckon that the NSW hospital system will be overwhelmed by 9 April, if not before.

We’re going at 3 day doubling time.

However, if we assume about a two week lag on social distancing having an effect, then we should hopefully see one more three day double (~4300 on Friday) before a day on day lessening rate of increase (the doubling time should continue to get pushed out).

 

[Evolved1]

Considering the US cases been through the roof and hospitals are already reporting stress. If you ever need evidence that he is a moron, here it is.

I'm shocked that the US national day of prayer didn't halt COVID-19 in its tracks.

 

[Run n Spread]

So they’ll just march in and say “thanks for keeping our food bowl and power supply seat warm for us, now get the fu** out it!”

And if they do we are ****ed. It will be over before it starts. Look how we handled this. We are fighting over toilet paper instead of having the balls to use our uranium and nuke whoever did this to high heaven. (Still not 100% who did it however) but will be obvious soon enough.

 

[Ghost Patrol]

Yep, been posting that for a while.

That's our future.

Me and and a mate did some rough sums and reckon that the NSW hospital system will be overwhelmed by 9 April, if not before.

Easter weekend. Perfect timing for the second coming of zombie Jesus

 

[Rodney Dangerfield]

Considering the US cases been through the roof and hospitals are already reporting stress. If you ever need evidence that he is a moron, here it is.

I honestly don’t think he’s dumb so what the * is going on?

 

[Rustin Cohle]

Considering the US cases been through the roof and hospitals are already reporting stress. If you ever need evidence that he is a moron, here it is.

The people needing this level of proof would never be persuaded anyway.

 

[Run n Spread]

And its probably going to be more authoritarian and more racist And more anti globalist.

unless the people actually rock up to make their voice heard for a change. Problem is you cant protest If gatherings are banned.

This. 8 weeks a go it had been a long summer now a billion are under house arrest. WTF? You are now criminalised for going outside and getting fresh air

 

[Les Malone]

Considering the US cases been through the roof and hospitals are already reporting stress. If you ever need evidence that he is a moron, here it is.

Well i am pretty sure whether the hospitals are reporting stress or not and lets face it - when aren't they!, that the media will be onto it like a rat up a drainpipe.

I personally think it is a brave decision and not one i would like to make, but the figures i have seen and things i have read make me question why a lockdown would work and the point of it.

 

[RobbieK]

And if they do we are f’ed. It will be over before it starts. Look how we handled this. We are fighting over toilet paper instead of having the balls to use our uranium and nuke whoever did this to high heaven. (Still not 100% who did it however) but will be obvious soon enough.

There is some stupid s**t getting posted these days, and this is up there with the dumbest.

 

[Rodney Dangerfield]

Just flicking channels nothing on...
Omen bet anyone??

 

[Ned_Flanders]

Well i am pretty sure whether the hospitals are reporting stress or not and lets face it - when aren't they!, that the media will be onto it like a rat up a drainpipe.

I personally think it is a brave decision and not one i would like to make, but the figures i have seen and things i have read make me question why a lockdown would work and the point of it.

given you think this is a nothing burger and "its just the flu" no s**t you dont think a lockdown is needed