Science/Environment Wuhan Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Pandemic Declared

[Fire]

To be fair this is a meaningless data point.
If you can compare the amount of urns now to an average number of urns needed before corona, you would be on to something. Normal numbers mean nothing because plenty of people die every day without caronavirus.

 

[DaRick]

There was another poll recently that said 60% approved of Trumps handling of the pandemic.

Considering I couldnt think of a less effective response, nor a more incoherent or inconsistent narrative from him, it just speaks volumes about where America is.

Its an empire half way through its fall.

Its future will look like present-day Mexico/Argentina IMO.

 

[Crankyhawk]

Current cases diagnosed by hospital 22 (no idea on how many have recovered)
2 current inpatients (down one) no word about death so much have recovered to point of discharge.
There is apparently a local residential care facility where a couple of workers have tested positive- but I don’t know if there will be any alternative staff for these patients to stay in RACF (equally do not want them in hospital)

 

[kaiserchief13]

Again, I suspect this is due more to it being summer rather than behavior.

I mean what makes Australia special?

You think weather improves immune system more than peoples health? Possibly Australians are way healthier than Europeans and Americans

 

[Fire]

You think weather improves immune system more than peoples health? Possibly Australians are way healthier than Europeans and Americans

Or maybe we're magic.

 

[kaiserchief13]

Or maybe we're magic.

Possibly

 

[Suspense]

https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/coronavirus/2020/03/28/brazil-bolsonaro-coronavirus-lockdown/

Though our leaders have made a few minor missteps, it could be a lot worse...

At least our crackpot denialists are confined to the fringes of AFL message boards rather than leading a nation.

 

[Number37]

This will start establishing some form of herd immunity - but will still be many deaths unless treatment technology improves.

Not if the experience in South Korea is anything to go by.
You can get it more than once.

 

[Suspense]

Not if the experience in South Korea is anything to go by.
You can get it more than once.

we're ****ed then.

i hadn't seen anything conclusive about re-infections. do you have a link?

 

[Snake_Baker]

Has anyone got todays figured for locally acquired infections in Victoria?

Or any other dated tallies for locally acquired infections?

 

[Number37]

we're f’ed then.

i hadn't seen anything conclusive about re-infections. do you have a link?

Watch the video. Interview with the equivalent of our CMO in South Korea.
They've had patients who've had it and tested positive again later.

Another interesting thing...
They're asking people who've had it to donate blood so that they can use the convalescent plasma to treat other patients.

 

[Roby]

There were widespread social crackdowns to mitigate Spanish Flu over 1918/19.

There just wasn’t such global access to the horror that was unfolding.

Actually the reason why the Spanish Flu got so bad was governments were hell bent on downplaying it constantly and in many cases they completely deny it. Do you know why it's called the Spanish Flu even though it never originated from there?

Maybe they order them monthly.

14.4% increase today, average increase of 14.1% per day over the last 4 days. This compares to average increase of 24.3% per day for the preceding 13 days. It appears that the curve is flattening (but is not yet flat).

On other hand, this could be false plateau as the number of travel related decrease rights before we see an explosion of community transmission.

It's actually up 19% today with some recent new cases.

 

[Doss]

https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/coronavirus/2020/03/28/brazil-bolsonaro-coronavirus-lockdown/

Though our leaders have made a few minor missteps, it could be a lot worse...

At least our crackpot denialists are confined to the fringes of AFL message boards rather than leading a nation.

Bolsonaro is really something else.

 

[DaRick]

Bolsonaro is really something else.

Absolutely - makes Trump look milquetoast.

I know a number of Brazilians and almost all of them have been displeased with his response to this epidemic.

But then again, the ones I know tend to be relatively well-educated.

 

[Dogs_R_Us]

You're the numbers man of this thread, and least there is a glimmer of hope here and in countries like Italy. Restrictions and physical distancing work!

Who’d a thought

 

[Snake_Baker]

Watch the video. Interview with the equivalent of our CMO in South Korea.
They've had patients who've had it and tested positive again later.

A "re-infection" can occur during the lag period between the primary AB response and secondary AB response (Memory B cells), but it's not a common occurrence and typically requires several factors coming in to play in a brief window of time. It's no real cause for concern.

 

[PCSY]

Actually the reason why the Spanish Flu got so bad was governments were hell bent on downplaying it constantly and in many cases they completely deny it. Do you know why it's called the Spanish Flu even though it never originated from there?

Becuse it killed many people of spanish origin in the USA (I think Texas but I don't know)

 

[Number37]

A "re-infection" can occur during the lag period between the primary AB response and secondary AB response (Memory B cells), but it's not a common occurrence and typically requires several factors coming in to play in a brief window of time. It's no real cause for concern.

View attachment 848463

Yeah, that's on par with what he said.
Anti-bodies 5-7 days. Recovery. Then re-activation

But the question was 'can we get it again?'. He started by saying "usually" that is what happens.
He also said "the scary thing is what we don't know about this virus".

 

[Les Malone]

Surely, the beach is large enough to allow everyone to be metres apart.
The sunlight and fresh air is actually good for their immune system.
You might consider it yourself.

Best suggestion in this situation we find ourselves in, i went for a swim today, plenty of room, plenty of people kicking a footy at the local oval, walking dogs etc, you can have a chat with people to gauge their ideas and opinions of the situation or just make small talk.

Sunlight and exercise are the best remedy for both body and mind.

 

[Snake_Baker]

Yeah, that's on par with what he said.
Anti-bodies 5-7 days. Recovery. Then re-activation

But the question was 'can we get it again?'. He started by saying "usually" that is what happens.
He also said "the scary thing is what we don't know about this virus".

Technically, you can catch it again, but many factors would have to come in to play, such as primary AB reservoir depletion, re-exposure during a very narrow time period, and then symptoms emerging again before the Memory B Cell AB's arrive and wipe the thing out.

If you look at the chart I posted above, you can identify how you would have to be very stiff for it to infect you again.

Can occur, but VERY unlikely.

 

[Cmarsh]

With the steps we’ve taken we should see a flattening in the next few weeks, particularly as the last of the overseas returns move through the system. But as far as community transmission there remain a large number of Australians who:

a) don't think we should worry (some on this board)

b) couldn’t give a s**t

It’s these groups, particularly the latter, that worry me.

We will have those groups, so long as they remain less than 10% of the population to give social distancing measures the best chance of being effective.

 

[Visions]

I think the strategy is to make it a trickle rather than a torrent. But you’re right, as soon as they loosen the restrictions there is further chance of outbreak. I think over the next 12 months, even without a formal lockdown, we’ll see a voluntary change in people’s behaviour, and any flare ups can be dealt with more easily.

Based on what I've seen/read about the efforts in the US during the 1918 Influenza pandemic, the current lockdown will probably be eased in 3 or so months but doing it too early risks a second, stronger peak as was seen in St Louis in 1918. You can take a look at the charts in this Nat Geo article to see what I mean.

The issue is I doubt that easing the restrictions in the future will work for 3 reasons:

1. The average Australian is a f***wit
2. Once restrictions are eased, every man and his dog will be so sick and tired of being institutionalised within their homes for months on end that they will be glad to get out and about and will do so in force.
3. The average Australian is a f***wit.

I do like the enforcement that one of the officers from San Fransisco used when regulations weren't being followed by the general public during the 1918 epidemic in the Nat Geo article, he shot them. Maybe we can do the same thing here when people don't comply.

 

[Number37]

We will have those groups, so long as they remain less than 10% of the population to give social distancing measures the best chance of being effective.

Drop the fines for non-compliance.

If you don't comply you go into forced quarantine, at your own expense. 14 days in a cheap hotel is a little more (?) than the current $1000 fine, but has the advantage of protecting the rest of the community from stupidity. f*** wits.

 

[Snake_Baker]

StKilda this afternoon

 

[Taylor]

Well that's not a booty camp, that's for sure