Queensland State Election (31/1/2015) - Labor form govt (Thread pg 54)

[The Old Dark Navy's]

glasshouse wtf they were lnp win. when that change happen.

Mansfield was a ALP win at one stage and now it is a likely LNP win. No seats have finalised counting.

 

[knife]

Surely the knighting thing was minor in the grand scheme of things and it would be more Abbott in general that had an effect.

It wouldn't seem like it should have such an impact but Abbott's preferred prime minister rating dropped 8 points this week after the Prince Phillip knighting. Polling suggested the LNP would get a whack but I think the knighthood may have been the last straw for many and tipped the balance. Like I said it will be interesting if we can get a breakdown of the pre-poll vs election day voting patterns.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Note that there are 4000 pre-poll votes for Ashgrove and only 1900 separating them. No trend should see that change but mathetically ....

 

[brucetiki]

The unremitting public pashing made me want to puke

Was it just me or did Newman's wife look like the Transvestite's partner from Dude Wheres My Car

 

[Baltimore Jack]

So what are the ALP going to do about the debt that they have saddled the state with if not asset sales/leases?

After all, they can hardly rely on increased revenues from things such as stamp duty as only bottom feeders will be looking to invest here in the short term

Queensland, and Australia for that matter, are rated AAA, not only is debt not an issue, money is so cheap right now we should be borrowing to build infrastructure

 

[Lebbo73]

Queensland, and Australia for that matter, are rated AAA, not only is debt not an issue, money is so cheap right now we should be borrowing to build infrastructure

Yeah, let's do that. Then when rates go up again we will be ****ed

 

[Tomjas00]

I meant Springborg

Again, wtf

 

[clogged]

Yeah, let's do that. Then when rates go up again we will be stuffed

Government bonds are fixed rate.

 

[Forward Press]

Yeah, let's do that. Then when rates go up again we will be stuffed

What rates are you talking about?

 

[singaport]

Queensland, and Australia for that matter, are rated AAA, not only is debt not an issue, money is so cheap right now we should be borrowing to build infrastructure

Qld only AA i think now, still the second highest credit rating available

 

[floodbuster]

I am stunned at just what I heard on the news, a massive landslide turnaround in Queensland, a massive swing towards labor in what is described as the safest SA liberal seat and Tony Abbott is declaring that Australian voters are smart and will judge state politics to federal differently. If his wanting to Knight Prince Philip showed he was out of touch then that comment proves it, does he truly think these 2 elections have nothing to do with him?

His people must have him in a reality distortion bubble.

 

[Tomjas00]

1. LNP added $14b to that debt.
2. General government debt is somewhere around $42b-$46b, the rest is government owned corporation debt.
3. LNP are looking to pay down a little over $5b on to general government debt, about $18b on corporation debt, $2b on something else and $12b on infrastructure and election promises.
4. Those assets to be leased generate $1.7b per year. Once leased, we lose $150b out of the economy during the 99 years. LNP counted on $1.2b per year less interest as a result of the $18b pay down on corporation debt. They still have the issue of a half of a billion short fall and the fact that you lose that $150b revenue stream even if you were able to pay down debt enough to cut the previous interest rate.
5. Labor had a black hole in their costings as well, but they rectified it before the election. They allowed $6b to be paid in the first term, $12b over 10 years, all from the revenue generated from these assets. They promised little this election so were funding the interest bill instead of spending on infrastructure.
6. Labor are looking at improving and growing public assets to generate more revenue.

Economists found holes in both ideas but Labor rectified theirs 2 days prior to the election while LNP didn't. Labor had to be minimalists on capital spending to do so however but at least keep the revenue streams.

1. No other way to run the place after the ALP left the coffers empty
2. It's all government debt
3. Nothing bad there
4. If you really think that the gov't can operate a business more efficiently than 99% of the private sector then you are kidding yourself. The gov't would be far better served by leaving it to the experts and screwing the lessee down on terms to ensure that the public is no worse off - it really isn't too hard
5. It's the ALP - zero credibility when it comes to financial management in Queensland
6. See 5 and bwuhahahahahaha at the notion - they didn't think that they'd win so have no plans and just issued a motherhood statement

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

1. No other way to run the place after the ALP left the coffers empty
2. It's all government debt
3. Nothing bad there
4. If you really think that the gov't can operate a business more efficiently than 99% of the private sector then you are kidding yourself. The gov't would be far better served by leaving it to the experts and screwing the lessee down on terms to ensure that the public is no worse off - it really isn't too hard
5. It's the ALP - zero credibility when it comes to financial management in Queensland
6. See 5 and bwuhahahahahaha at the notion - they didn't think that they'd win so have no plans and just issued a motherhood statement

1. But they could afford to pork barrel their electorates and couldn't save money by sacking at least 7% of their workforce.
2. Not the point. The money from those corporations was easily covering the interest on their debt.
3. Yes there is. They were reducing general government debt by less than the ALP and they had no income from assets to assist in future.
4. You literally addressed nothing about that point there. We are talking loss of revenue for 99 years. Do you believe that all governments should sell assets and in this case lose control of the impact those things have on the cost of the living. Do you think prices will go down once privatised?
5. Yet you didn't comment on the LNP shortfall in Point 4. Can't take you seriously. At any rate, read the experts say that neither plan was ideal but Labor's was doable. https://theconversation.com/uncovering-the-black-holes-in-plans-to-fix-queenslands-debt-36218
6. Damn sight more than you have offered in insight here.

 

[Tomjas00]

1. But they could afford to pork barrel their electorates and couldn't save money by sacking at least 7% of their workforce.
2. Not the point. The money from those corporations was easily covering the interest on their debt.
3. Yes there is. They were reducing general government debt by less than the ALP and they had no income from assets to assist in future.
4. You literally addressed nothing about that point there. We are talking loss of revenue for 99 years. Do you believe that all governments should sell assets and in this case lose control of the impact those things have on the cost of the living. Do you think prices will go down once privatised?
5. Yet you didn't comment on the LNP shortfall in Point 4. Can't take you seriously. At any rate, read the experts say that neither plan was ideal but Labor's was doable. https://theconversation.com/uncovering-the-black-holes-in-plans-to-fix-queenslands-debt-36218
6. Damn sight more than you have offered in insight here.

They weren't selling anything

"Revenue" (probably being generated at a huge loss btw but what's another few billion when we are 80 in the hole already!) was being replaced by "rental income"

 

[John]

1. No other way to run the place after the ALP left the coffers empty
2. It's all government debt
3. Nothing bad there
4. If you really think that the gov't can operate a business more efficiently than 99% of the private sector then you are kidding yourself. The gov't would be far better served by leaving it to the experts and screwing the lessee down on terms to ensure that the public is no worse off - it really isn't too hard
5. It's the ALP - zero credibility when it comes to financial management in Queensland
6. See 5 and bwuhahahahahaha at the notion - they didn't think that they'd win so have no plans and just issued a motherhood statement

So why did they fail to sell the message?

 

[Tomjas00]

So why did they fail to sell the message?

Incompetence/naivety/arrogance

Same reason as to why they didn't bother to secure a couple of preference deals that would have seen them retain power

 

[John]

Incompetence/naivety/arrogance

Same reason as to why they didn't bother to secure a couple of preference deals that would have seen them retain power

So the voters got it wrong based on LNP Incompetence/naivety/arrogance?

 

[Tomjas00]

So the voters got it wrong based on LNP Incompetence/naivety/arrogance?

I have no problem with them punting Newman but to vote in the ALP is a different matter altogether

This has set Qld back years just as the first signs of green shoots beginning to sprout have been witnessed

As an example, I am in the market for a new house and the agent was on the phone to me first thing to offer me a discount on a particular property as the vendor recognised that the market was potentially heading south as a result of the election

 

[Lebbo73]

Government bonds are fixed rate.

Not when you roll the debt over because you only pay the interest. Then the rates will be higher. Interest rates are currently emergency lows. That is because the US is stuffed and debt is too high to service.

 

[John]

I have no problem with them punting Newman but to vote in the ALP is a different matter altogether

This has set Qld back years just as the first signs of green shoots beginning to sprout have been witnessed

As an example, I am in the market for a new house and the agent was on the phone to me first thing to offer me a discount on a particular property as the vendor recognised that the market was potentially heading south as a result of the election

So your not going to buy because you now know that property prices will colapse?

 

[Tomjas00]

So your not going to buy because you now know that property prices will colapse?

No

I will screw them down on price because sentiment is negative so, in a way, the electorate has done me a favour

Markets are not rational as perception dictates reality

 

[John]

No

I will screw them down on price because sentiment is negative so, in a way, the electorate has done me a favour

Markets are not rational as perception dictates reality

How far do you think that you can "screw them down" based on the election results known so far. And may I be bold enough to ask what suburb? I am considering an investment property and am keen on any advice that I can receive on the property market collapse due to an ALP government being elected in Qld.

 

[Howard Littlejohn]

The ALP in QLD didn't reinvent itself nor did it appear to be rejuvenated

This was simply a vote against Newman and Abbott

Annastacia Palaszczuk is the Bradbury of Australian politics

I would agree with that. Just as Abbott won by simply not being Ruddard, and despite being Abbott. And Shorten is every chance of winning by simply not being Abbott.

 

[clogged]

Not when you roll the debt over because you only pay the interest. Then the rates will be higher. Interest rates are currently emergency lows. That is because the US is stuffed and debt is too high to service.

Who said the debt has to roll over?

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

They weren't selling anything

Most pundits conceded that leasing for such a long time was basically a sale. You can get hung up on the technicality but nobody was buying it. What are those assets worth when returned? None of us are going to be around to see it and neither are our children. The LNP themselves, when in opposition, objected strongly to offloading assets and a couple of them, including Tim Nicholls said a lease was as good as selling the farm.

"Revenue" (probably being generated at a huge loss btw but what's another few billion when we are 80 in the hole already!) was being replaced by "rental income"

$1.8b profit last year, not just revenue.

Rental income is a one off sugar hit, then nothing. Whatever they can sell it for, with no buyers lined up yet. They said $34b, then $37b, then mysteriously pulled $47b out of the air after basing Strong Choices on $37b.