Vic Predict the outcome of the 2018 Victorian State Election

[Ned_Flanders]

Hawthorn in the 1950s covered half of Richmond and had none of Camberwell within it, which goes to show just how remarkable this result has been. A large percentage of those high rises around Swinburne house international students so they cannot be credited with this result has some of the bigger swings have been in well established usually safe Liberal booths.

I wonder if the dog whistle campaign actually backfired in the east. Hawthorn, Box Hill, Forest Hill, Mount Waverley all have big residential Asian communities. Most are not fans of the alp, but anecdotally I have heard a lot considered the Sudanese message anti migrant at its core.

 

[parsons nose]

I wonder if the dog whistle campaign actually backfired in the east. Hawthorn, Box Hill, Forest Hill, Mount Waverley all have big residential Asian communities. Most are not fans of the alp, but anecdotally I have heard a lot considered the Sudanese message anti migrant at its core.

There’s that and the Libs negative campaign on Andrews investment deal with the Chinese government.

 

[Fire]

I wonder if the dog whistle campaign actually backfired in the east. Hawthorn, Box Hill, Forest Hill, Mount Waverley all have big residential Asian communities. Most are not fans of the alp, but anecdotally I have heard a lot considered the Sudanese message anti migrant at its core.

Dunno. Anecdotally, I have noticed that Asians tend to be the most racist towards Africans; I would say that the liberals scare tactics in regard to China would be playing a much bigger role than them targeting others. I suspect its probably complicated.

 

[Catters 070911]

A couple of things:-

1) All the people saying that Sudanese don't commit crime.

Sorry, my eyesight must be going, as I am sure that the guy running around in the city a couple of weeks ago with a knife, killing one and injuring two others, was black-skinned. I must be wrong, as it is only white people who commit crime, according to lefties.

2) Niceness seems more important than money.

Obviously, voters care more about people being nice, and being nice to certain groups, rather than if they are making money. Lefties care more about being "nice" and accepting everyone (except those who don't agree with their view of the world) , and would rather just hate the rich, rather than work hard and make money.

3) You are all voting for the ALP now.

A lot of you who voted are fickle.

Why? Because you are all voting Labor now, but come in four or eight years, you will then be pissed off with them, and throw them out of office, and vote in the other mob.

This isn't like Cuba, where they keep the same government for decades. Australians get bored with governments, and even ones who are still doing good (like the Howard govt in 2007) are thrown out because people get bored and want a change.

You wait, the comments you make now, will be reversed in four or eight years, and then you will wonder why you kept in the Andrews government as long as you did.

 

[ChampTurboBucko]

A couple of things:-

1) All the people saying that Sudanese don't commit crime.

Sorry, my eyesight must be going, as I am sure that the guy running around in the city a couple of weeks ago with a knife, killing one and injuring two others, was black-skinned. I must be wrong, as it is only white people who commit crime, according to lefties.

How do you expect anyone to engage you doing anything but laughing, when you post trash like this?

2) Niceness seems more important than money.

Obviously, voters care more about people being nice, and being nice to certain groups, rather than if they are making money. Lefties care more about being "nice" and accepting everyone (except those who don't agree with their view of the world) , and would rather just hate the rich, rather than work hard and make money.

Thanks Michael Kroger.

3) You are all voting for the ALP now.

A lot of you who voted are fickle.

Why? Because you are all voting Labor now, but come in four or eight years, you will then be pissed off with them, and throw them out of office, and vote in the other mob.

This isn't like Cuba, where they keep the same government for decades. Australians get bored with governments, and even ones who are still doing good (like the Howard govt in 2007) are thrown out because people get bored and want a change.

You wait, the comments you make now, will be reversed in four or eight years, and then you will wonder why you kept in the Andrews government as long as you did.

Nice little whitewashing of Howard’s last couple years there; he wasn’t just merely stale, he was actively on the nose because of WorkChoices.

But yeah nice meltdown.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

There’s that and the Libs negative campaign on Andrews investment deal with the Chinese government.

forgot about that - my wife hasn't shut up about that!

 

[Baltimore Jack]

Well that was fun

Who's next?

 

[Ned_Flanders]

Dunno. Anecdotally, I have noticed that Asians tend to be the most racist towards Africans; I would say that the liberals scare tactics in regard to China would be playing a much bigger role than them targeting others. I suspect its probably complicated.

dont disagree on the first, but i think the libs over played things with the whole "melbournians are afraid to go out at night" rhetoric.

 

[parsons nose]

A couple of things:-

1) All the people saying that Sudanese don't commit crime.

Sorry, my eyesight must be going, as I am sure that the guy running around in the city a couple of weeks ago with a knife, killing one and injuring two others, was black-skinned. I must be wrong, as it is only white people who commit crime, according to lefties.

2) Niceness seems more important than money.

Obviously, voters care more about people being nice, and being nice to certain groups, rather than if they are making money. Lefties care more about being "nice" and accepting everyone (except those who don't agree with their view of the world) , and would rather just hate the rich, rather than work hard and make money.

3) You are all voting for the ALP now.

A lot of you who voted are fickle.

Why? Because you are all voting Labor now, but come in four or eight years, you will then be pissed off with them, and throw them out of office, and vote in the other mob.

This isn't like Cuba, where they keep the same government for decades. Australians get bored with governments, and even ones who are still doing good (like the Howard govt in 2007) are thrown out because people get bored and want a change.

You wait, the comments you make now, will be reversed in four or eight years, and then you will wonder why you kept in the Andrews government as long as you did.

Keep barracking mate.

 

[Doss]

dont disagree on the first, but i think the libs over played things with the whole "melbournians are afraid to go out at night" rhetoric.

They did worse than just overplay it. They created an alternate reality that simply isn’t reflected in the attitudes or actions of most people.

 

[Baltimore Jack]

Tony Jones (On 9 coverage of Election): "I don't believe that Law an Order was not a huge issue, we have a State living in fear, here"

Umm...no, we don't Tony

 

[Doss]

Tony Jones (On 9 coverage of Election): "I don't believe that Law an Order was not a huge issue, we have a State living in fear, here"

Umm...no, we don't Tony

Chompers has been a card carrying member of the clown brigade for a long time now.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

I wonder if the dog whistle campaign actually backfired in the east. Hawthorn, Box Hill, Forest Hill, Mount Waverley all have big residential Asian communities. Most are not fans of the alp, but anecdotally I have heard a lot considered the Sudanese message anti migrant at its core.

The only reasons the Asian community vote for the the liberal party in the eastcis because quite a few of them are very well off and until now have forgotten the liberal parties stance on migration and immigration which has stood for years. Perhaps there now realising the libs are attacking them and have voted accordingly. The reality is it looks like they will still hold the majority of seats there but literally all liberal held seats in the east and outer east are marginal now, quite extraordinary really.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

Brighton was too good to be true, was funny for a long time how that result was panning out. Its irrelevant really though to the overall scheme of things likewise hawthorn, pesutto may hang on there and if he does could get a significant role in the next cabinet.

 

[nobbyiscool]

**** me... 30 pages since last night! Congrats to those of you who were either bragging, or sticking it out to the bitter end last night I'll enjoy going back and reading it all later on today.

Me? I woke up this morning still drunk. Last night was just beyond mind-blowing. It was clearly beyond anyone's wildest dreams when Labor are winning seats like Hawthorn, Brighton and Sandringham.

I'm someone who has voted Green for the last 6 years or so, but went to Labor for this election, and it was very cool and very fun spending last night with some Labor-ites who'd done a bunch of campaigning for this election. Just a ****ing bananas result - even the worst opinion polls didn't predict this. Well done to Andrews; looking where the wins are, I reckon Jacinta Allan is patting herself on the back tonight too, public transport was clearly a massive issue when you look at how the "Skyrail" seats fell (Essendon as well) - for all the well organised, vocal campaigns against the type of level crossing removals in particular places, the results around those LX removals has been bonkers.

 

[Baltimore Jack]

Who was the poster who said "if Burwood goes, its all over" and then went on to say "The Libs could be out of office for 8 years"

Oh, that's right, it was me

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

**** me... 30 pages since last night! Congrats to those of you who were either bragging, or sticking it out to the bitter end last night I'll enjoy going back and reading it all later on today.

Me? I woke up this morning still drunk. Last night was just beyond mind-blowing. It was clearly beyond anyone's wildest dreams when Labor are winning seats like Hawthorn, Brighton and Sandringham.

I'm someone who has voted Green for the last 6 years or so, but went to Labor for this election, and it was very cool and very fun spending last night with some Labor-ites who'd done a bunch of campaigning for this election. Just a ******* bananas result - even the worst opinion polls didn't predict this. Well done to Andrews; looking where the wins are, I reckon Jacinta Allan is patting herself on the back tonight too, public transport was clearly a massive issue when you look at how the "Skyrail" seats fell (Essendon as well) - for all the well organised, vocal campaigns against the type of level crossing removals in particular places, the results around those LX removals has been bonkers.

The skyrail electorates have spoken to the libs about their feelings toward them loud and clear. Complete fear mongering about skyrail which the opposite is the truth. A lot of people are pleasantly surprised at how efficient and unobtrusive on their day to day lives it actually is. There were certainly skeptical people but it looks like they have been converted.

 

[cartwright]

dont disagree on the first, but i think the libs over played things with the whole "melbournians are afraid to go out at night" rhetoric.

Exactly. The libs wanted it to be about law and order, where people just want to see improvement and infrastructure. Level crossings, public transport, education ...
Fed libs should have shut up too. ...everything they get involved in they stuff up.

 

[Baltimore Jack]

John Faine made an interesting observation last night

He said that after the demise of Family First, the remnants of that group infiltrated the Vic Liberal Party (mainly in the Eastern Suburbs) and shifted the party to the religious right with the result being what we saw last night. Faine said Victorians are generally progressive voters and will not accept what the religious right are throwing up.

 

[Juddism]

A couple of things:-

1) All the people saying that Sudanese don't commit crime.

Sorry, my eyesight must be going, as I am sure that the guy running around in the city a couple of weeks ago with a knife, killing one and injuring two others, was black-skinned. I must be wrong, as it is only white people who commit crime, according to lefties.

you're wrong about where his is from, he was Somali, that place that the film "black hawk down" was based on, I refer to that film because anything more complicated would be too hard for your simple brain.

most of the Sudanese population are Christian.

 

[TimmeT]

Who was the poster who said "if Burwood goes, its all over" and then went on to say "The Libs could be out of office for 8 years"

Oh, that's right, it was me

Burwood is a marginal electorate plus a large number of the electorate dislike the local member for a number of reasons. Nothing significant or amazing about it being lost for Liberal. Box Hill would be the bigger concern.

 

[Hawk Dork]

It was interesting hearing the Lib guy from Hawthorn on the ABC, he was saying his seat was becoming an inner city seat,more like Richmond and was getting marginal.

What does that mean?....it was getting university educated and harder to scare ?

 

[Baltimore Jack]

Burwood is a marginal electorate. Nothing significant about it being lost for Liberal. Box Hill would be the bigger concern.

So you agree. I was right, thanks

 

[Hornberger]

IND are leading in Morwell, and the LIB are a chance to retain Ripon. A Labor landslide, they are going to win Ringwood and Box Hil,l and yet Labor might not win the 2 most marginal LNP seats from the 2014 election.

 

[TimmeT]

So you agree. I was right, thanks

Not at all but keep telling yourself that if it makes you sleep better at night.