Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2015 Draft Almanac

[Suns of Anarchy]

Bailey Rice is an interesting one KM with his father/son scenario. I've seen them twice and his kicking is elite. Never misses a target and named best again yesterday against the Rams.

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

KM - looking at Carlton's many deficiencies, a small forward is an obvious area we lack.. Who is the best small forward in the draft and where do you think they will go?

 

[jjami15]

This is a serious post. When discussing No 1 draft chances, leave out Aaron Francis at your peril.

He wasn't in the best players, but the AFL scouts there were salivating over his marking, his pace and above all, his elite kicking skills.

This bloke is special.

I read quite an intersting article about the likes of Heppel, Fyfe and Dangerfield being some of the games elite midfielders but in the u/18 championships they were HBF's or HFF's due to their heights. Then when they made the transition to AFL they have become midfielders. Is Aaron Francis one of those types that could make such a transition for those who have seen him?

 

[Two Planks]

The other aspect of Hawthorn's formula beyond just drafting kickers and left footers is they like height and they like versatility.

On the Hawthorn list Puopolo is the only player shorter than Sexton.

So it's not quite that simplistic regarding Hawthorn just being a team of kickers.

Have you actually seen Will Sexton play or are you just going off height / weight statistics. Not being a smarty, the kid just never gets beat and wins plenty of footy and delivers it very well.

 

[redandblack]

Jjamie 15 re Francis.

At this stage, I'm not sure. Possibly, but I haven't seen that yet.

What excited me about his performance at SANFL League level yesterday were some individual plays that just reeked class. It was only his second game, but he had poise, confidence and maturity and his kicking skills, short or long, were elite.

When I first mentioned him here, he was around 30 on most drafts, then SEN had him at 6. I would say he's much more advanced than Sam Durdin at the same stage, even allowing Sam being a later developer because of his height.

 

[Knightmare]

Bailey Rice is an interesting one KM with his father/son scenario. I've seen them twice and his kicking is elite. Never misses a target and named best again yesterday against the Rams.

You're right in your observations. His kicking efficiency is through the roof. The question for Carlton will be whether they want another back flanker. But he has certainly elevated his play this year and looks like a genuine father son selection.

KM - looking at Carlton's many deficiencies, a small forward is an obvious area we lack.. Who is the best small forward in the draft and where do you think they will go?

It depends on how small you call small. But at the top end Keays if you play him forward, Balic and Ah Chee are all exceptionally damaging and all project to go first round.

For the smaller, small forwards there will be options late draft/rookie draft as there are every year. And this is more the route I'd advise Carlton go given the pressing midfield and key position needs.

Brendan Dew and Nick Dodge in the mid-late draft range may appeal. Hisham Kerbatieh late draft or Nicholas Pavlou as probably a rookie are two others to keep an eye out for.

Have you actually seen Will Sexton play or are you just going off height / weight statistics. Not being a smarty, the kid just never gets beat and wins plenty of footy and delivers it very well.

I have seen Sexton play both last year and this year. And I've also noticed his play so he does have some ability.

The run-down of Sexton's game is he is a small who plays off the back flank. He reminds me of a shorter Tony Armstrong. As a small back flanker with real class, an efficient kick, some time and space. His running game for a small is fairly unimpressive and he doesn't seem to have the endurance he needs to be a factor running off the back flank with any consistency. In addition to that the other aspect of my analysis is small backmen have always screamed alarm bells for me as v AFL talent, you're not always going to have someone as short as you to matchup on, and with that comes trouble.

My vision is actually for Sexton to play more forward and be someone used to find inside 50 targets as opposed to setting up play off a back flank. At least in the front half I don't see lack of height as such an issue, but down back, I don't like it.

 

[Pafloyul]

KM - looking at Carlton's many deficiencies, a small forward is an obvious area we lack.. Who is the best small forward in the draft and where do you think they will go?

Forget about what we lack and start thinking about what we'd like - we are miles off!

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

Forget about what we lack and start thinking about what we'd like - we are miles off!

Well i certainly wouldnt be giving up our first pick for a small forward, but we do need one to replace Garlett and Betts, Clem Smith might come good but ATM looks a while off.

 

[TheFrenchCut]

Hey guys.

I was just wondering, there was a guy for North Ballarat Jacob Wheelahan who did alright last year as an underage player (from memory played on a hff and got a goal or so a game). He's listed for North this year, but yet to play, so I suspect he's injured.

Is he someone who could get drafted? I remember him being rated as possessing a bit of x-factor.

Also, who are the guys from North, other than Hopper, who could get drafted this year?

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

KM what is the rules in terms of Brisbane drafting Keays, will they have to use there first pick or 2nd pick?

 

[Gmod23]

KM what is the rules in terms of Brisbane drafting Keays, will they have to use there first pick or 2nd pick?

This is to do with what he is deemed worth during the bidding process. Likely to cost 2&3 round picks and maybe more. Your first round is probably going to be too high for anyone to bid before your pick.

 

[Knightmare]

Hey guys.

I was just wondering, there was a guy for North Ballarat Jacob Wheelahan who did alright last year as an underage player (from memory played on a hff and got a goal or so a game). He's listed for North this year, but yet to play, so I suspect he's injured.

Is he someone who could get drafted? I remember him being rated as possessing a bit of x-factor.

Also, who are the guys from North, other than Hopper, who could get drafted this year?

Wheelahan last year had a good underage season as a forward. You are right. I don't have information as to why he is missing this year. Presumably injury. Hopefully we see him back soon, but based on what I saw of him last year he looked draftable and showed some flashes so he is a chance for this year, assuming he continues to improve and has a strong season.

For North Ballarat beyond Hopper. Tucker is the other standout and both could be top 10 picks at seasons end.

Otherwise I'm not sure who else will get a shot. Wheelahan if he comes back strongly probably is the next best chance. Yestin Eades maybe. Tom Templeton as an overager perhaps. They're the other guys who may be considerations late draft.

 

[Knightmare]

KM what is the rules in terms of Brisbane drafting Keays, will they have to use there first pick or 2nd pick?

It all comes down to what is bid. And then the points system will do the rest. If Brisbane continue their poor form they're not going to have to use that first pick to get Keays, but it may be their second pick, second and third pick.

So with the new system that has been proposed guessing at this stage is more difficult than in previous years where you can more easily identify roughly the round a guy will go.

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

It all comes down to what is bid. And then the points system will do the rest. If Brisbane continue their poor form they're not going to have to use that first pick to get Keays, but it may be their second pick, second and third pick.

So with the new system that has been proposed guessing at this stage is more difficult than in previous years where you can more easily identify roughly the round a guy will go.

Say Carlton finish 18th and Brisbane 17th, We decide Keays is the best player in the draft that isnt going to the Sydney clubs so it effectively forces Brisbane to use there first pick.... So only chance Brisbane have of not using there first pick is to finish dead last. Is this correct??

 

[Knightmare]

Say Carlton finish 18th and Brisbane 17th, We decide Keays is the best player in the draft that isnt going to the Sydney clubs so it effectively forces Brisbane to use there first pick.... So only chance Brisbane have of not using there first pick is to finish dead last. Is this correct??

I don't see any club with that first pick bidding on Keays. I'd imagine Brisbane would say "all yours Carlton" and Carlton would then be forced to use that first overall selection on Keays.

Mills on the other hand. I can see Carlton in the situation they finish dead last would put forward a bid as he probably would be deemed on most draft boards the best player in the draft. Then Sydney would be paying up big to secure Mills under the new proposed bidding structure.

With Keays if I had to guess today, a pick in the 5-10 range would be bid. He doesn't seem to have such an extreme following as Mills does. I just personally have Keays in that conversation as a genuine top 5 quality player in this draft at this point.

So I'm seeing it almost the opposite way that with Brisbane presumably finishing at least bottom 5 would be my conservative guess based on the clubs slow start, I can't see Brisbane actually needing to use that first round pick to get just Keays.

 

[Diehardbomber]

From the same game, Will Snelling led possessions with 27, great inside. Size will be the question for his draft chances, but he's very effective.

Riley Bonner might be more to recruiters liking. I watched him in the Under 18's last week. He racked up 35 possessions and 4 goals, against weak opposition.

Not sure on your comments redandblack, Will Snelling is the same size as Caleb Daniels and in my opinion is a little bit further advanced at the same age. Will finds more of the ball but probably doesn't use it as well as Caleb, the test for Snelling will come in the National Championships this month as he will be tagged by the other sides. Size isn't an issue and the Bulldogs showed this with their courage and smarts to take Daniels in last years draft. Re Bonner, yes Sturt was a weaker side but you still need to get the footy and use it well which he did, the weather conditions were terrible and his skills were outstanding in trying conditions, I'd like to know if they had GPS units on as he would have clocked up the kms. I also witnessed Francis in action yesterday, he was simply outstanding and unlucky not to feature in West Adelaide's best players. His speed over 5-10m is elite and this showed with several of his chase downs on smaller opponents. If he continues to perform like he is then top 5 is definitely a possibility.

 

[Gmod23]

Not sure on your comments redandblack, Will Snelling is the same size as Caleb Daniels and in my opinion is a little bit further advanced at the same age. Will finds more of the ball but probably doesn't use it as well as Caleb, the test for Snelling will come in the National Championships this month as he will be tagged by the other sides. Size isn't an issue and the Bulldogs showed this with their courage and smarts to take Daniels in last years draft. Re Bonner, yes Sturt was a weaker side but you still need to get the footy and use it well which he did, the weather conditions were terrible and his skills were outstanding in trying conditions, I'd like to know if they had GPS units on as he would have clocked up the kms. I also witnessed Francis in action yesterday, he was simply outstanding and unlucky not to feature in West Adelaide's best players. His speed over 5-10m is elite and this showed with several of his chase downs on smaller opponents. If he continues to perform like he is then top 5 is definitely a possibility.

I wouldn't say that Caleb Daniel is a success and thus follow the dogs lead. He is yet to play a game. He has two attributes that hopefully let him succeed. Disposal efficiency and elite work rate. Unless Francis can have both these traits not so sure he would be a worthwhile draft choice.

 

[redandblack]

I wouldn't say that Caleb Daniel is a success and thus follow the dogs lead. He is yet to play a game. He has two attributes that hopefully let him succeed. Disposal efficiency and elite work rate. Unless Francis can have both these traits not so sure he would be a worthwhile draft choice.

I think you mean Snelling?

I'm a big fan of Will and the Caleb Daniel situation was in my mind when I queried whether AFL teams would draft him. On ability and mist other factors, he'd be a certain pick, but it depends on what they're looking for.

 

[redandblack]

Not sure on your comments redandblack, Will Snelling is the same size as Caleb Daniels and in my opinion is a little bit further advanced at the same age. Will finds more of the ball but probably doesn't use it as well as Caleb, the test for Snelling will come in the National Championships this month as he will be tagged by the other sides. Size isn't an issue and the Bulldogs showed this with their courage and smarts to take Daniels in last years draft. Re Bonner, yes Sturt was a weaker side but you still need to get the footy and use it well which he did, the weather conditions were terrible and his skills were outstanding in trying conditions, I'd like to know if they had GPS units on as he would have clocked up the kms. I also witnessed Francis in action yesterday, he was simply outstanding and unlucky not to feature in West Adelaide's best players. His speed over 5-10m is elite and this showed with several of his chase downs on smaller opponents. If he continues to perform like he is then top 5 is definitely a possibility.

I agree with your comments on Bonner, he dominated that game.

Likewise Francis.

 

[joop]

Saints for continually traded out more senior players for draft picks. This will mean no priority pick will come their way. Can't trade players out for picks (also to perform worse and finish lower on the ladder) and then appeal for a priority pick because you are bottom 2. Dees tried this and sucked for much longer and didn't get a priority pick. IF Stevens hadn't signed on, then you could have got FA compo.

We've traded 2 players out for picks....?
Jack Steven* not Stevens

 

[Zach Package]

Some of the 19 year olds are doing pretty well judging by their numbers from the early rounds...

Capiron not getting a tonne of it but getting a lot of effective kicks, and his are usually very telling, Tom Wilkinson consistently racking up big numbers (including a 37 disposal, 7 tackle, 16 handball receive game v the Knights and a 37 disposal, 5 tackle, 10 handball receive and 4 behind game on saturday v tassie) and Kovacevic getting big hitout numbers and seemingly getting better around the ground judging by his numbers.

 

[Knightmare]

Some of the 19 year olds are doing pretty well judging by their numbers from the early rounds...

Capiron not getting a tonne of it but getting a lot of effective kicks, and his are usually very telling, Tom Wilkinson consistently racking up big numbers (including a 37 disposal, 7 tackle, 16 handball receive game v the Knights and a 37 disposal, 5 tackle, 10 handball receive and 4 behind game on saturday v tassie) and Kovacevic getting big hitout numbers and seemingly getting better around the ground judging by his numbers.

Mattingly and Answerth are two others really putting up big numbers. You could name another 10 overagers just from the TAC Cup who are going pretty well and you'd be thinking late/rookie draft at this stage they could be considerations.

A lot of them have come back and are playing with the intent to get drafted.

And with the success of some recent overagers at AFL level. It shouldn't be surprising that some good players who have missed out are coming back wanting to make the most of the second chance the TAC Cup offers a number of these overagers who miss out.

 

[SizeMatters]

Weitering looks a likely type. How is he as a forward? Interesting to see that he plays both as a defender and on the wing. Will be on the Lions radar no doubt.

 

[Knightmare]

Weitering looks a likely type. How is he as a forward? Interesting to see that he plays both as a defender and on the wing. Will be on the Lions radar no doubt.

Have not seen Weitering as a forward so I can't comment on that element of his game. But certainly down back and on a wing is terrific.

I recall at least one other poster making mention that they've seen Weitering as a forward and liked what they've seen. But it's something I'd still like to see first given just how high of a pick you're talking about.

As a top end selection, no question Brisbane are keeping a close eye on Weitering. But presumably as a key defender, with that what he clearly does best and projects to become at AFL level.

 

[TheFrenchCut]

Wheelahan last year had a good underage season as a forward. You are right. I don't have information as to why he is missing this year. Presumably injury. Hopefully we see him back soon, but based on what I saw of him last year he looked draftable and showed some flashes so he is a chance for this year, assuming he continues to improve and has a strong season.

For North Ballarat beyond Hopper. Tucker is the other standout and both could be top 10 picks at seasons end.

Otherwise I'm not sure who else will get a shot. Wheelahan if he comes back strongly probably is the next best chance. Yestin Eades maybe. Tom Templeton as an overager perhaps. They're the other guys who may be considerations late draft.

Cheers for that. Also, thought I'd mention Nick Rippon. Seems to regularly get 30+ for North Ballarat in the vfl, works on the inside and outside. Why do you think he's been overlooked? Is it purely down to height?