Preview AFL Round 19 - North Melbourne v Geelong, Etihad Stadium, 7:40PM Saturday 2 August

[Shai]

I think some have been lulled into a false sense of security visa ve NM. When we played them at Simonds earlier this year we won purely on the effort of the first quarter and a half. NM came back at us after that, and won the second half easily, but our lead was too great. I felt that if that game had of gone for another twenty minutes NM would have caught of us and won. So this game next week at Etihad isn't going to be an easy game.

Thought we all (or majority) agreed that there isn't any game this year that is easy..

 

[Partridge]

I think some have been lulled into a false sense of security visa ve NM. When we played them at Simonds earlier this year we won purely on the effort of the first quarter and a half. NM came back at us after that, and won the second half easily, but our lead was too great. I felt that if that game had of gone for another twenty minutes NM would have caught of us and won. So this game next week at Etihad isn't going to be an easy game.

I'm afraid I don't get the constant rating of North by everyone. They're an ok side, good on their day, but their record over the last few years, and again this year, does not warrant them to any kind of reverence. We outplayed them from start to finish the first time. We were not remotely lucky in any way. It's amazing the excuses that are made for them.

We play well, we're a very good chance of beating them. We play poorly, we'll likely lose. In other words, the same scenario for most teams.

 

[Jon Douglas]

Incredibly important game - win this one and we really have a chance at TOP 4. Plus we kill off a potential threat.

In regards to Caddy - I know he has had injuries but given how so many other young kids (even first year kids) have gone at other clubs this year - he is yet to really cement his spot with consistent performances.

Been really happy with GHS - Kersten shows promise and is important structurally - been ok with Murdoch - Bews has shown a bit and I cannot wait for Thurlow BUT Caddy has not been someone I can say I feel has done enough, given he is now near 50 senior games.

 

[BlakeyNoFlakey]

I'm afraid I don't get the constant rating of North by everyone. They're an ok side, good on their day, but their record over the last few years, and again this year, does not warrant them to any kind of reverence. We outplayed them from start to finish the first time. We were not remotely lucky in any way. It's amazing the excuses that are made for them.

We play well, we're a very good chance of beating them. We play poorly, we'll likely lose. In other words, the same scenario for most teams.

It's not that I rate NM highly at all, I don't. It's more I don't rate Geelong as highly as some do, so I think if NM bring their best they have a good chance of beating us. I have not seen a solid 4 quarter effort from Geelong since round 4, and I don't think they'll suddenly produce it next week either. At our best we could beat them, and visa versa. It's a 50/50 game to me.

 

[vinum coupe]

It's not that I rate NM highly at all, I don't. It's more I don't rate Geelong as highly as some do, so I think if NM bring their best they have a good chance of beating us. I have not seen a solid 4 quarter effort from Geelong since round 4, and I don't think they'll suddenly produce it next week either. At our best we could beat them, and visa versa. It's a 50/50 game to me.

I heard a comment from Scott a couple of weeks back and it worried me.
Something like "not really happen with our second half. But if we are to play a good half I'd prefer to set up a lead and taper off from there"
Really, really hope that the vibe isn't in the playing group.

 

[Partridge]

Been really happy with GHS - Kersten shows promise and is important structurally - been ok with Murdoch - Bews has shown a bit and I cannot wait for Thurlow BUT Caddy has not been someone I can say I feel has done enough, given he is now near 50 senior games.

Yep he clocked up game number 51 on the weekend.

 

[BlakeyNoFlakey]

I heard a comment from Scott a couple of weeks back and it worried me.
Something like "not really happen with our second half. But if we are to play a good half I'd prefer to set up a lead and taper off from there"
Really, really hope that the vibe isn't in the playing group.

I think CS speaks with forked tongue to the media a lot. He has recently been saying he's OK with how things are going, yet every shot I see of him in the Coaches box during a game recently is not of a happy man at all. He got so angry at one point during the GWS game he had to walk out of the coaches box to collect himself. There's a disconnect here with what he is saying in press conferences, and what he is showing. As ever, actions speak louder than words.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

Stunned how every poster thinks McIntosh deserves a spot ahead of Simpson. Simpson had 60% hit out efficiency versus 20% of McIntosh. Basically Simpson was three times more effective in the ruck. That run on we got in the 3rd quarter that won us the game where we had three centre clearances in a row was caused by Simpson. Around the ground they had the same posessions (even though McIntosh had more game time).

That's true and Simpson would be unlucky to miss out. But that analysis neglects two points.

1. Assuming we go in with only two of Blicavs/McIntosh/Simpson, McIntosh and Blicavs have been outstanding together in the past few weeks.
2. McIntosh knows Goldstein like the back of his hand. Of course, the opposite is also true, but Goldstein had minimal impact the last time the teams met (Simpson's first H&A game against North Melbourne).

And of course, who knows? Maybe Blicavs isn't an automatic inclusion.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

I think some have been lulled into a false sense of security visa ve NM. When we played them at Simonds earlier this year we won purely on the effort of the first quarter and a half. NM came back at us after that, and won the second half easily, but our lead was too great.

Easily = 15 points

Less than half as easy as the 35 point lead we held at half time. And we'd lost Lonergan, due to concussion, by quarter time, forcing Blicavs to pinch hit as a key defender and Taylor to shift over to Petrie.

I felt that if that game had of gone for another twenty minutes NM would have caught of us and won. So this game next week at Etihad isn't going to be an easy game.

They kicked 1.4 to our 1.1 in the final 20 minutes of the game. North made a moderate junk time comeback, but never looked like winning it.

I don't think anyone expects it to be an easy game. However, it's a game we absolutely should win and there should be no excuses. We've been a better team throughout the season, we were a better team the last time we played, we'll have a much stronger team on the night with the inclusion of Christensen, Caddy, Kersten and Johnson in place of four players who will probably play in the VFL (while North's will be roughly the same strength as it was that night) and we have more at stake than they do (North is currently $1.06 for top 8 and $10 for top 4 with Betfair, i.e. the Roos are highly likely to stay about where they find themselves at the moment, by the end of the season). And we are clear (though not overwhelming) favourites for the game.

Of course, if there's one team that shouldn't catch anyone by surprise by now, it's North Melbourne.

 

[Cataholic]

There's a huge amount of optimism on the board at the moment Blakey.
It could be from intellect, or it might just be hope.

Interestingly, there seems to be the same degree of optimism / pessimism on the NM board.

Suggests fans of both clubs really are uncertain about this one.

 

[OzeSparky]

Geelong and North are the only 2 teams not to lose two in a row this year.

Can Geelong remain the only one?

 

[Turbocat]

Geelong and North are the only 2 teams not to lose two in a row this year.

Can Geelong remain the only one?

North are close to the most dangerous side on the rebound. The next few weeks will sort our just how good we are. North on teh rebound. Freo embarrassed. Hawks probably hunting to be top two again. Carlton a bit like North in that they were a person they would qualify for "DID" (Dissociative identity disorder) , Brisbane has shown they can worry us.

They all could be dangerous , but if we are the side that CScott says we are , then they should be worrying about us , not us about them.

 

[Lana]

I think CS speaks with forked tongue to the media a lot. He has recently been saying he's OK with how things are going, yet every shot I see of him in the Coaches box during a game recently is not of a happy man at all. He got so angry at one point during the GWS game he had to walk out of the coaches box to collect himself. There's a disconnect here with what he is saying in press conferences, and what he is showing. As ever, actions speak louder than words.

He always seems to sprout crap in the press conferences... he has an obligation to be there but it gives the club no benefit by giving the media insight into his thought processes. I take anything he says with a healthy dose of skepticism.

 

[Seeds]

That's true and Simpson would be unlucky to miss out. But that analysis neglects two points.

1. Assuming we go in with only two of Blicavs/McIntosh/Simpson, McIntosh and Blicavs have been outstanding together in the past few weeks.
2. McIntosh knows Goldstein like the back of his hand. Of course, the opposite is also true, but Goldstein had minimal impact the last time the teams met (Simpson's first H&A game against North Melbourne).

And of course, who knows? Maybe Blicavs isn't an automatic inclusion.

I wouldn't use the term fantastic for any rucking performance until we start winning the clearances, particularly against the likes of Melbourne and Footscray.

 

[vinum coupe]

I wouldn't use the term fantastic for any rucking performance until we start winning the clearances, particularly against the likes of Melbourne and Footscray.

Is there a stat for wins in 1 on 1 contests?
Would love to see that stat.

I reckon we are behind.

 

[Shinboner '07]

A lot riding on this game for both teams. Whoever wins I'm sure it'll be a ripper game.

 

[OzeSparky]

I wouldn't use the term fantastic for any rucking performance until we start winning the clearances, particularly against the likes of Melbourne and Footscray.

The dogs have Minson and Libba a lethal combination. Hard to beat them two

 

[FredLeDeux]

The dogs have Minson and Libba a lethal combination. Hard to beat them two

McIntosh/Blicavs smacked Minson Le Blonk.

 

[TheJimmyCartel]

It's going to be VERY interesting to see what goes down with selections for this game, even moreso with some excellent VFL outings from guys we could really benefit from in the side.

Bundy for Hartman is basically a given.

I'd be be surprised to see Hmac/Simpson/Blitz, expect to see prob Simpson out (don't necessarily agree, just can't see them dropping HMac especially vs the Roos). However CS has indicated that may want to play all 3 meh

Would not be upset to see Jansen come in for Caddy - will let Caddy get some form in the VFL and make him realize he has competition for his position whilst rewarding Jansen for consistent VFL form. Tackles hard, wins clearances and can take marks/kick goals. Is built to go.

The interesting two are Bews and McCarthy for mine. Would like to see them in but I don't know who comes out for them? Even less chance if all 3 big guys play.

Bews would be a handy inclusion to take Thomas again - not hurt by his BOG 31 disposals and a goal last weekend. But who comes out? Ain't going to be Kelly, Boris or Varcoe, so not sure how we fit him in.

McCarthy could bring more of that F50 pressure and crumbing forward that we desperately need - 23 disposals, 6 tackles & 4 goals last week. Only person he would replace I can think of is Murdoch but he is a MC favourite.

Will be interesting.

 

[vinum coupe]

Bews would be a handy inclusion to take Thomas again - not hurt by his BOG 31 disposals and a goal last weekend. But who comes out? Ain't going to be Kelly, Boris or Varcoe, so not sure how we fit him in.

McCarthy could bring more of that F50 pressure and crumbing forward that we desperately need - 23 disposals, 6 tackles & 4 goals last week. Only person he would replace I can think of is Murdoch but he is a MC favourite.

Will be interesting.

Yeah I'd like Bews in for that reason.
It's the one area where we could get exploited.

Would not mind McCarthy either.
And maybe give HMac an additional week of rest.
So Blitz in.
And Obviously Bundy for Hartman.

I have zero idea who they could omit for Bews and McCarthy though.

 

[dazbroncos]

It's going to be VERY interesting to see what goes down with selections for this game, even moreso with some excellent VFL outings from guys we could really benefit from in the side.

Bundy for Hartman is basically a given.

I'd be be surprised to see Hmac/Simpson/Blitz, expect to see prob Simpson out (don't necessarily agree, just can't see them dropping HMac especially vs the Roos). However CS has indicated that may want to play all 3 meh

Would not be upset to see Jansen come in for Caddy - will let Caddy get some form in the VFL and make him realize he has competition for his position whilst rewarding Jansen for consistent VFL form. Tackles hard, wins clearances and can take marks/kick goals. Is built to go.

The interesting two are Bews and McCarthy for mine. Would like to see them in but I don't know who comes out for them? Even less chance if all 3 big guys play.

Bews would be a handy inclusion to take Thomas again - not hurt by his BOG 31 disposals and a goal last weekend. But who comes out? Ain't going to be Kelly, Boris or Varcoe, so not sure how we fit him in.

McCarthy could bring more of that F50 pressure and crumbing forward that we desperately need - 23 disposals, 6 tackles & 4 goals last week. Only person he would replace I can think of is Murdoch but he is a MC favourite.

Will be interesting.

Might not be popular but Bundy for Hartman and Bews in for Murda.
Kelly to MF and with Bundy in there and up forward the loss of Murda pace and goal kicking covered by Bundy.

And Hartman has been good but his last out as the sub was not influential. Not bagging him at all, its just not his day last week.

Go Catters

 

[TheJimmyCartel]

Might not be popular but Bundy for Hartman and Bews in for Murda.
Kelly to MF and with Bundy in there and up forward the loss of Murda pace and goal kicking covered by Bundy.

And Hartman has been good but his last out as the sub was not influential. Not bagging him at all, its just not his 15mins

Go Catters

EFA.

Yeah would love to see some more of quite a few guy. tough when we have so many cloggers on the list like Bartel, Enright, Kelly & Lonergan ha

 

[Teriyakicat]

The dogs have Minson and Libba a lethal combination. Hard to beat them two

Minson was AA ruck last year

 

[Rankin_1925]

Might not be popular but Bundy for Hartman and Bews in for Murda.
Kelly to MF and with Bundy in there and up forward the loss of Murda pace and goal kicking covered by Bundy.

And Hartman has been good but his last out as the sub was not influential. Not bagging him at all, its just not his day last week.

Go Catters

I'm with you Daz, but I'm not a Murdoch fan, so it stands to reason that I'm happy to see him out of the side. My main issue with him is that he looks great when we are winning comfortably, but he seems to struggle badly when we are getting beaten. He's obviously not on his lonesome as a poor player in a losing side, but it's the consistency of this pattern (poor player in a losing side) that is my concern. I reckon he is Geelong's version of Isaac Smith - a pacy, raking left footer who is a great front runner, but is not the guy who is going to drag his team back into a game when the chips are down.

 

[romeoh]

I'm with you Daz, but I'm not a Murdoch fan, so it stands to reason that I'm happy to see him out of the side. My main issue with him is that he looks great when we are winning comfortably, but he seems to struggle badly when we are getting beaten. He's obviously not on his lonesome as a poor player in a losing side, but it's the consistency of this pattern (poor player in a losing side) that is my concern. I reckon he is Geelong's version of Isaac Smith - a pacy, raking left footer who is a great front runner, but is not the guy who is going to drag his team back into a game when the chips are down.

Yep but he was never going to be that player was he? And he isn't as annoying as Smith! (nor as good atm). He is going to be one of the players who can win the ball with his speed and carry the ball down to the forward line and also slot a few regularly. It will be Duncan, Motlop, Bundy, Guthrie, GHS, Caddy and Bews who will drag us back into games as time goes on. What a great bunch of fighters. He does need to get a more fierce attitude though and be tougher at the contest. That will come.