Fisher by election (SA)

[Ford Fairlane]

Nat Cook has regained the lead with 82.7% counted. Only 21 votes the difference.

ECSA will announce the final result on Saturday

Then the recount and onto the court challenge!

 

[screech]

Either way you look at this, this is a massive kick in the pants for the Libs.

This is the theme being sold by the media in Adelaide at the moment but I am not sure it is that simple.

The Liberals have maintained their vote, so really it is just a re-alignment of the Such following which has either gone to the ALP or Woodyatt (and to a lesser extent Golding). Seems whoever was going to vote Liberal, did so at the March election.

I never bought that this was a safe Liberal seat, to the east is Heysen (safe Liberal) and to the North is Davenport (fairly safe Liberal), but both those electorates a quite different demographics.
To the North East is Mitchell, which fell to the Liberals at the March election and is now one of the most marginal seats. To the South-East is Reynell, a safe Labor seat. To the south is Mawson which has become a fairly safe Labor seat and has a blend of conservative booths (McLaren Vale, McLaren Flat) and ALP heartland (Hackham).

In Fisher you have some quite conservative areas (Clarendon, Cherry Gardens etc), but also some mortgage belt (Aberfoyle Park) and established outer suburbs (Happy Valley).

The argument that the seat could be won by a 4 term old Government is probably more notable. This is not a good situation for the Liberals, but it is hardly the disaster it is being promoted as.

What a fascinating By-Election!

 

[Ford Fairlane]

Getting there but according to Antony Green there could be a twist or two in the tale yet.

Commentary 2014 Fisher by-election

12/12/2014 11:33:29 AM - Today's update of 30 votes made no difference to the Labor 2-party lead. After preferences both the Labor and Liberal candidates gained 15 votes.
Tomorrow is the full distribution of preferences. Unless there has been an error with the count, Labor should retain its two-party lead.
What will not be known until the distribution of preferences is whether Independent Dan Woodyatt can close the 707 vote gap by which he currently trails Labor's Nat Cook. There are 2861 votes with the other five candidates on the ballot paper. If Woodyatt gains 708 more votes from this group than Cook, he will reach second place and then go on to win easily on Labor preferences.
The current preference count offers us no help on whether this will occur. We will have to wait and see what happens with the preference distribution.

Commentary 2014 Fisher by-election

 

[Ford Fairlane]

The official result is in, Labor wins Fisher by 23 votes.

Fisher by-election win for Labor