How much is a 2016 pick worth today?

[DanA]

As the thread title suggests, how much is a 2016 pick worth in this coming trade period.

I figure next years draft is a bit stronger but there has to be a discount for having to wait on a pick and a conservative estimate of its value because it's yet to be decided.

For instance Geelong's 2016 1st round pick.

My thoughts are that it's unlikely we'll finish top four next season so I think being conservative you could estimate it to be approximately pick 15 (with upside). But it's hard to figure out the time value of a pick and I suppose that might vary depending on club to club. I would guess a discount of maybe 5 picks in the first round, 10 in the second and 15 for every pick after that seems about right.

That would put Geelong's 1st round pick as worth roughly pick 20 in my eyes. How do people think clubs will view the value of future picks?

 

[Suma Magic]

I'd trade our first rounder for your 2016 first rounder.

Big considerations in value:
- expected finish
- draft strength
- number of players who may be taken under FA/Academy before the pick
- number of FA compo picks likely to be handed out before the pick

For 2nd and third rounders, draft strength will be the biggest determining factor IMO.

 

[Sweet Jesus]

I'd trade our first rounder for your 2016 first rounder.

Big considerations in value:
- expected finish
- draft strength
- number of players who may be taken under FA/Academy before the pick
- number of FA compo picks likely to be handed out before the pick

For 2nd and third rounders, draft strength will be the biggest determining factor IMO.

Good list.

 

[Mr Magic]

As the thread title suggests, how much is a 2016 pick worth in this coming trade period.

I figure next years draft is a bit stronger but there has to be a discount for having to wait on a pick and a conservative estimate of its value because it's yet to be decided.

For instance Geelong's 2016 1st round pick.

My thoughts are that it's unlikely we'll finish top four next season so I think being conservative you could estimate it to be approximately pick 15 (with upside). But it's hard to figure out the time value of a pick and I suppose that might vary depending on club to club. I would guess a discount of maybe 5 picks in the first round, 10 in the second and 15 for every pick after that seems about right.

That would put Geelong's 1st round pick as worth roughly pick 20 in my eyes. How do people think clubs will view the value of future picks?

I would trade this years 2015 draft pick 20 for Geelongs draft pick in 2016 round 1 in the blink of an eye, no questions asked.

In fact if you have anything to do with the Geelong inner circle please contact the RFC and I am sure we can do business. You can make suggestions for other picks in 2016 as well if you like, don't hesitate to make suggestions

 

[DanA]

I would trade this years 2015 draft pick 20 for Geelongs draft pick in 2016 round 1 in the blink of an eye, no questions asked.

In fact if you have anything to do with the Geelong inner circle please contact the RFC and I am sure we can do business. You can make suggestions for other picks in 2016 as well if you like, don't hesitate to make suggestions

I explained my reasoning, which part do you think is wrong.

For the record I think Geelong will most likely finish 9th. I just figure the highest we can finish is 5th and have taken the worst case scenario. It seems I've been too conservative though, what would the value of Geelong's first rounder be?

 

[MarkJohnson#1]

A dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow.

 

[doona]

A dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow.

The aussie dollar is going down though, Hows this possible?

 

[4thchicken]

surprised this thread hasn't gotten more love.

Imo, the value of a future pick will depend on the respective needs of the trading teams i.e. whether it is to bring in picks or players in the current year and where you might project the trading teams to finish up in the future year.

Whilst you might normally expect a discount to be applied for a future pick, what if it were at the pointy end of the draft? i.e. what would be the value of the blues 2016 1st round selection?

 

[Gysberts2Bate]

Can see a lot of teams in 2013 trading for picks in 2014 because of the hype surrounding all the KPPs coming through the next year. 2013 ironically is looking like one of the strongest drafts ever.

 

[The 747]

The aussie dollar is going down though, Hows this possible?

What?

 

[BPikkers]

I'd trade our first rounder for your 2016 first rounder.

Big considerations in value:
- expected finish
- draft strength
- number of players who may be taken under FA/Academy before the pick
- number of FA compo picks likely to be handed out before the pick

For 2nd and third rounders, draft strength will be the biggest determining factor IMO.

So would i