Draft Watcher Knightmare 2020 Draft Almanac

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Knightmare said:
Direct from my AFL Tier List video:

Callow (20), Sam Fisher (37), Zavier Maher (39), Jackson Callow (40), Kaine Baldwin (41). Logan Young (58), Xavier Robbins (62).

Players of interest I want to watch in 2021 and haven't seen so much as footage of but look forward to seeing: Jai Newcombe and Corey Preston. Newcombe in particular sounded draftable from those reviews I've heard, so he's someone I really hope to see next year in some capacity.
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Interesting, a poster on our board has linked the Dogs to taking Corey Preston.
 
Hi Knightmare,
Just wondering if you know where Kaine Baldwin's at with his ACL.
Is he ready to play at the start of 2021? Could have a few clubs watching how he goes thinking of the midseason drafts.
 
smurfin said:
Hi Knightmare,
Just wondering if you know where Kaine Baldwin's at with his ACL.
Is he ready to play at the start of 2021? Could have a few clubs watching how he goes thinking of the midseason drafts.
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Not sure where he is at with his recovery, but generally with ACL's, it's a case of once you're game ready, you really need that year after that to get your feet back.

I fully expect clubs will continue tracking Baldwin.
 

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Knightmare said:
AFL Draft. All the pick 1s all time tier list ordered and ranked:
Click to expand...


small differences, i would have had Clive Waterhouse and Michael Gardiner(legit great ruckman) up a level each, they were better players than the others in their groups, surprised Waterhouse only played a little over 100 games, he was quite a good player for the Dockers, i also would swap Josh Fraser with Jeff White, i think Jeff White was good without being fantastic and Josh Fraser was really good for Collingwood for most of his career

i would put B Tier: Michael Gardiner at 13, Josh Fraser at 14, Cam Rayner 15, Drew Banfield 16..... C Tier: Bryce Gibbs 17, David Swallow 18, Jeff White 19, Clive Waterhouse 20, Matthew Kreuzer 21..... (special mention to Tom Boyd who was a big reason the Dogs won the premiership in 2016) then the rest.

good concept, just my 2 cents :p

P.S. critical take of some of the others:
Darren Gaspar was terrible for the first half of his career, won some people over later, so that drags him down a lot for me
Travis Johnstone was a bog average winger for most of his career same with Scully
Jack Watts he was lucky to have the long career he enjoyed imo
Des Headland was bog average at brisbane and freo
Jon Patton well he has played 3 seasons out of 9 so far, not looking good
 
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Davo-27 said:
small differences, i would have had Clive Waterhouse and Michael Gardiner(legit great ruckman) up a level each, they were better players than the others in their groups, surprised Waterhouse only played a little over 100 games, he was quite a good player for the Dockers, i also would swap Josh Fraser with Jeff White, i think Jeff White was good without being fantastic and Josh Fraser was really good for Collingwood for most of his career

i would put Michael Gardiner at 13, Josh Fraser at 14, Cam Rayner 15, Drew Banfield 16..... C Tier: Bryce Gibbs 17, David Swallow 18, Jeff White 19, Clive Waterhouse 20, Matthew Kreuzer 21..... (special mention to Tom Boyd who was a big reason the Dogs won the premiership in 2016) then the rest.

good concept, just my 2 cents :p
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Waterhouse I agree with you could play, and agree with you at least with prime Gardiner. Gardiner was marked down below a Fraser/Kreuzer mostly for off-field, but depends on whether you include that.

As ruckmen, and I can put bias aside, I'd definitely take White over Fraser. White probably for the modern game if you take that perspective probably doesn't translate as well given he was just 195cm, but as a tap ruckman he was the better of the two by a fair stretch with Fraser while great around the ground and as a forward, not all that competitive at stoppages. With White there is also more volume of work where he remained good whereas with a Fraser as a point of contrast by 2010, so once he turned 28 he was completely cooked and had nothing more meaningful to offer.

When rating guys all time though, I do put heavy weighting on volume of work, relatively speaking.

Of those 13-21, my immediate thought is that's harsh on Kreuzer who was a legit ruckman and really comparable to Fraser. Better tap ruckman and much more competitive from that perspective, but a few less games and not quite as good forward of centre. But both very comparable.

What are your thoughts on the younger crop Davo? Rowell? JUH? Walsh? Weitering? McGrath? Any of them you think could join the Hodge/Riewoldt company? Can they surpass Goddard? Will they be better than Whitfield/Deledio/Murphy/Cooney? How are you seeing that group?
 
Knightmare said:
AFL Draft. All the pick 1s all time tier list ordered and ranked:
Click to expand...

Lachie Whitfield is 26 (not 28, as you said in the video), and has 6 years to go on his contract, he is very likely to get to 300 or at least pretty close.
I guess it is hard to quantify success, but I think there is an over importance of games played in the methodology.
For example 200 games of Dusty, Dangerfield or Fyfe would be worth more than. 300 of a solid player (say Hopper or De Boar as a Giants example)
 
Knightmare said:
Waterhouse I agree with you could play, and agree with you at least with prime Gardiner. Gardiner was marked down below a Fraser/Kreuzer mostly for off-field, but depends on whether you include that.

As ruckmen, and I can put bias aside, I'd definitely take White over Fraser. White probably for the modern game if you take that perspective probably doesn't translate as well given he was just 195cm, but as a tap ruckman he was the better of the two by a fair stretch with Fraser while great around the ground and as a forward, not all that competitive at stoppages. With White there is also more volume of work where he remained good whereas with a Fraser as a point of contrast by 2010, so once he turned 28 he was completely cooked and had nothing more meaningful to offer.

When rating guys all time though, I do put heavy weighting on volume of work, relatively speaking.

Of those 13-21, my immediate thought is that's harsh on Kreuzer who was a legit ruckman and really comparable to Fraser. Better tap ruckman and much more competitive from that perspective, but a few less games and not quite as good forward of centre. But both very comparable.

What are your thoughts on the younger crop Davo? Rowell? JUH? Walsh? Weitering? McGrath? Any of them you think could join the Hodge/Riewoldt company? Can they surpass Goddard? Will they be better than Whitfield/Deledio/Murphy/Cooney? How are you seeing that group?
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i personally would always pick Josh Fraser in my team ahead of Jeff White, both really good players though, maybe its my bias for rucks who are good around the ground over specialist tap rucks

yea Kreuzer is a weird one, was injured a lot early, had a year or so early where he was a high quality ruck, then the rest of his career was playing a few good games in between injuries and average form(the media loved when he had a good game because they would always trot out the line "and thats why he was number 1 pick folks")

*i think Rowell, Walsh(8 players in his draft could have been pick 1 btw, the talent was ridiculous) and maybe JUH could be up there with Goddard if they continue their good form(Goddard was a top shelf player at the Saints, not so much at the end at Essendon), Rowell has the potential to be up there with Hodge and Riewoldt if everything works out well for him, JUH is the unknown at this point, not only have we not seen him play at the AFL level yet, we havnt even seen him play top age NAB League or the Championships, so i cant even speculate at this point about him.

Weitering and McGrath seem like ok to good players, but neither blows me away with how they play, McGrath gets a lot of loose half back possies and doesnt really hurt opponents enough, if he moved into midfield OR hurt opponents from defence more, my opinion might change, Weitering i think has been below average for 4 years and this year was good in some games and average in others, i saw him have at least 3 ordinary games in 2020 and i dont watch a lot of Carlton so i was surprised when some people in the media were saying he should be AA, obviously that isnt a popular opinion, but he is improving, so thats a good sign for Blues Fans.

if i had to guess at this point, i would guess that Rowell, Walsh and JUH end up in A Tier and McGrath and Weitering end up in B Tier at a guess, im basing that on quality of career moreso than games played, i mean if Deledio, Murphy and Cooney are in B Tier, then i think thats a reasonable assumption.
 
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GWS Goose said:
Lachie Whitfield is 26 (not 28, as you said in the video), and has 6 years to go on his contract, he is very likely to get to 300 or at least pretty close.
I guess it is hard to quantify success, but I think there is an over importance of games played in the methodology.
For example 200 games of Dusty, Dangerfield or Fyfe would be worth more than. 300 of a solid player (say Hopper or De Boar as a Giants example)
Click to expand...

Good error check.

I was thinking with 2012 and thinking he was 20 years old, just doing bad maths in my clearly tired brain that is clearly needing a break for Christmas!

If Whitfield gets near the 300 game mark, he'll be high up the list. If he gets into the 250-300 game range that's a good career outcome. He's definitely beyond doubt A-tier if he played 300+ games. But I'd probably keep that tier exclusive for that company, as there will be those Hodge/Riewoldt standard guys who reach that mark. Particularly as the hit rate increases over time on those guys taken #1.

With volume of work, no duds will make it to 300 games. You have to be incredible for a very long time to make that marker. I found in the case of the video, I could pretty easily fit them into those classes based on games played, but with this younger crew if some of them play incredible footy but fall just short, I may need to change the rough games played categories.

Davo-27 said:
i personally would always pick Josh Fraser in my team ahead of Jeff White, both really good players though, maybe its my bias for rucks who are good around the ground over specialist tap rucks

yea Kreuzer is a weird one, was injured a lot early, had a year or so early where he was a high quality ruck, then the rest of his career was playing a few good games in between injuries and average form

*i think Rowell, Walsh and maybe JUH could be up there with Goddard if they continue their good form, Rowell has the potential to be up there with Hodge and Riewoldt if everything works out well for him, JUH is the unknown at this point, not only have we not seen him play at the AFL level yet, we havnt even seen him play top age NAB League or the Championships, so i cant even speculate at this point about him.

Weitering and McGrath seem like ok to good players, but neither blows me away with how they play, McGrath gets a lot of loose half back possies and doesnt really hurt opponents enough, if he moved into midfield OR hurt opponents from defence more, my opinion might change, Weitering i think has been below average for 4 years and this year was good in some games and average in others, i saw him have at least 3 ordinary games in 2020 and i dont watch a lot of Carlton so i was surprised when some people in the media were saying he should be AA, obviously that isnt a popular opinion, but he is improving, so thats a good sign for Blues Fans.
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Fraser was great around the ground, but White still averaged slightly more but basically the same disposals per game over his career. Fraser won a higher % contested because following up he was so good, but White from my recollection was very good around the ground. Accounting for Fraser playing some period of time forward, they basically are equivalent as accumulators.

Kreuzer was interesting in that he won a higher % contested than a Fraser or White. He was maybe even the better footballer, or at least better ruckman of the three, but comparatively found a little less volume and wasn't as threatening compared to Fraser as a forward.

Even peak performance between the three is interesting to compare.
Kreuzer's 2017 was terrific and among the very best ruckmen. 665 hitouts, 321 disposals, 206 contested possessions, 69 marks, 107 tackles, 12 goals, 19 contested marks, 16 marks i50 from 21 games.
Fraser in 2006 was his one great season, and like with Kreuzer, in the absolute upper echelon of ruckmen that year. 398 disposals, 170 marks, 341 hitouts, 50 tackles, 155 contested possessions, 28 marks i50, 16 contested marks and 16 goals.
Then White in 2004 was great. 523 hitouts (but doing it in a lower hitout era won the highest % of the group and in the lowest possession era), 399 disposals, 127 marks, 38 tackles, 127 contested possessions, 18 contested marks, 9 marks i50, 8 goals. From 24 games.

Ultimately with the three it depends on what you value. White was the best tap ruckman for his period at least but was the weakest from a contested perspective. But in White's favour, he had numerous seasons where he had similar high output where the likes of a Fraser and Kreuzer really just had the one great season and and a number of good seasons in there. Kreuzer was the best contested and perhaps in terms of impact as a result. With Fraser for general mobility and marking around the ground and as a forward of centre threat was probably that guy. So I find them all hard to split and to have their different advantages, with span of work for me that most meaningful separator.

Of your evaluations of the younger ones the one that probably relatively surprises me the most is probably Weitering. From year 1 I've actually liked his game. What currently I view as elite is the defensive and 1v1 side of his game. He rarely loses and contest and really makes it hard for rival key forwards to do anything against him. But then beyond that he's a really good intercepter. Skills are good. I really like him. He'd be one of those very first key defenders I'd be building a team around. And Pies fans won't like me for saying this, but I'd take Jacob Weitering over Darcy Moore if I could have one or the other to start my team with. Weitering being a year younger, not playing finals footy while Moore has and still having played more games. I like particularly with key defenders that extra durability. In the same way I'd answer if asked Grundy or Gawn? I'm taking Grundy. 3 years younger, and he has played more games. When talking about guys in a similar/same talent tier, I'm taking the guy who doesn't miss games. Would Weitering be the key defender I'd pick first to start a team with? I'd be going against the grain (most will say Andrews and understandably) but I'd go Balta. Younger by 3 years, but his development trend over the past 12 months has been seriously impressive and with his play this year on an unbelievable level for someone who was only into his second year of matches, or third year in the system, I flat out love his game and his future outlook, as someone really on the precipice of joining that elite company already just 30 games into his career.
 
Knightmare said:
Good error check.

I was thinking with 2012 and thinking he was 20 years old, just doing bad maths in my clearly tired brain that is clearly needing a break for Christmas!

If Whitfield gets near the 300 game mark, he'll be high up the list. If he gets into the 250-300 game range that's a good career outcome. He's definitely beyond doubt A-tier if he played 300+ games. But I'd probably keep that tier exclusive for that company, as there will be those Hodge/Riewoldt standard guys who reach that mark. Particularly as the hit rate increases over time on those guys taken #1.

With volume of work, no duds will make it to 300 games. You have to be incredible for a very long time to make that marker. I found in the case of the video, I could pretty easily fit them into those classes based on games played, but with this younger crew if some of them play incredible footy but fall just short, I may need to change the rough games played categories.



Fraser was great around the ground, but White still averaged slightly more but basically the same disposals per game over his career. Fraser won a higher % contested because following up he was so good, but White from my recollection was very good around the ground. Accounting for Fraser playing some period of time forward, they basically are equivalent as accumulators.

Kreuzer was interesting in that he won a higher % contested than a Fraser or White. He was maybe even the better footballer, or at least better ruckman of the three, but comparatively found a little less volume and wasn't as threatening compared to Fraser as a forward.

Even peak performance between the three is interesting to compare.
Kreuzer's 2017 was terrific and among the very best ruckmen. 665 hitouts, 321 disposals, 206 contested possessions, 69 marks, 107 tackles, 12 goals, 19 contested marks, 16 marks i50 from 21 games.
Fraser in 2006 was his one great season, and like with Kreuzer, in the absolute upper echelon of ruckmen that year. 398 disposals, 170 marks, 341 hitouts, 50 tackles, 155 contested possessions, 28 marks i50, 16 contested marks and 16 goals.
Then White in 2004 was great. 523 hitouts (but doing it in a lower hitout era won the highest % of the group and in the lowest possession era), 399 disposals, 127 marks, 38 tackles, 127 contested possessions, 18 contested marks, 9 marks i50, 8 goals. From 24 games.

Ultimately with the three it depends on what you value. White was the best tap ruckman for his period at least but was the weakest from a contested perspective. But in White's favour, he had numerous seasons where he had similar high output where the likes of a Fraser and Kreuzer really just had the one great season and and a number of good seasons in there. Kreuzer was the best contested and perhaps in terms of impact as a result. With Fraser for general mobility and marking around the ground and as a forward of centre threat was probably that guy. So I find them all hard to split and to have their different advantages, with span of work for me that most meaningful separator.

Of your evaluations of the younger ones the one that probably relatively surprises me the most is probably Weitering. From year 1 I've actually liked his game. What currently I view as elite is the defensive and 1v1 side of his game. He rarely loses and contest and really makes it hard for rival key forwards to do anything against him. But then beyond that he's a really good intercepter. Skills are good. I really like him. He'd be one of those very first key defenders I'd be building a team around. And Pies fans won't like me for saying this, but I'd take Jacob Weitering over Darcy Moore if I could have one or the other to start my team with. Weitering being a year younger, not playing finals footy while Moore has and still having played more games. I like particularly with key defenders that extra durability. In the same way I'd answer if asked Grundy or Gawn? I'm taking Grundy. 3 years younger, and he has played more games. When talking about guys in a similar/same talent tier, I'm taking the guy who doesn't miss games. Would Weitering be the key defender I'd pick first to start a team with? I'd be going against the grain (most will say Andrews and understandably) but I'd go Balta. Younger by 3 years, but his development trend over the past 12 months has been seriously impressive and with his play this year on an unbelievable level for someone who was only into his second year of matches, or third year in the system, I flat out love his game and his future outlook, as someone really on the precipice of joining that elite company already just 30 games into his career.
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My attitude on Weitering has changed a lot, if you had asked me 2 years ago i would have been more critical of his game, he has improved a lot and i think he is average to good now, could he be a really good defender? maybe if he keeps improving he may be that top tier defender? he has a good spoiling game, his marking and strength have improved where he can hold his own against the big forwards, i still have queries over his disposal and decision making at times, he can get beaten on a lead also, he does lack that speed to keep up with a forward who knows how to create separation, he has improved and is showing why he was a pick 1 for me, maybe if he continues his good form then he may end up in A Tier?
 
Davo-27 said:
My attitude on Weitering has changed a lot, if you had asked me 2 years ago i would have been more critical of his game, he has improved a lot and i think he is average to good now, could he be a really good defender? maybe if he keeps improving he may be that top tier defender? he has a good spoiling game, his marking and strength have improved where he can hold his own against the big forwards, i still have queries over his disposal and decision making at times, he can get beaten on a lead also, he does lack that speed to keep up with a forward who knows how to create separation, he has improved and is showing why he was a pick 1 for me, maybe if he continues his good form then he may end up in A Tier?
Click to expand...

Weitering would need to hit that 300 game mark to be for his career that A-tier player. I think that's what he'd need to do, and his durability has been mostly find with 20+ games all but one season and the full 17 this year. Can he become an All-Australian? I think he will and have a he should a few times. I would take Noah Balta and Harris Andrews before him if I'm taking a key defender for the span of their careers from this point forward. I could be forgetting someone, but Weitering probably for me is that 3rd key defender I'd take.

cairo tiger said:
You rate Rhyan Mansell at all?
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He's a good rebounding defender in the SANFL. Still young at just 20 I believe, nice user of the footy and can intercept a bit. A possibly developable component in defence and could be someone a Richmond may consider with a view towards picking as a successor to Bachar Houli.
 

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Knightmare said:
You're right actually. u18 champs. Had Phillips, Reef etc dominating in their place.
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I literally told you in the post you quoted that Phillips didn’t play. Hope that’s not what you came up with after checking your notes because McInnes didn’t play either. Neither did Macrae nor Laurie. It’s almost as if Stone dominated without any decent supply at all hey, but you’d remember that from watching the game?
 
Sin City said:
I literally told you in the post you quoted that Phillips didn’t play. Hope that’s not what you came up with after checking your notes because McInnes didn’t play either. Neither did Macrae nor Laurie. It’s almost as if Stone dominated without any decent supply at all hey, but you’d remember that from watching the game?
Click to expand...

Months since I've seen an Oakleigh game. Long time ago I was comfortable with my evaluations of Oakleigh's talent.

With Stone, his limitations remain the same. Who is delivering the ball doesn't change the way he moves or how awful his turning circle is.
 
Knightmare said:
AFL Draft. All the pick 1s all time tier list ordered and ranked:
Click to expand...

I liked the idea you were going for and I broadly agree with your categorisations, but I think this video suffered from not clearly defining at the beginning what criteria you were using and applying it equally across all players. It felt like the criteria only developed as the video progressed.

It's impossible to know whether Jamarra is going to become a Buddy or a Patton, so I would have taken out the past six number 1s and saved them for another video evaluating them on talent level alone. I also would have used different criteria for the rest, with less focus on pure games played and more on overall contribution towards finals performance. Drew Banfield was a good example of this, lot of games played but what actual impact did he have?
 
Johnny Bananas said:
I liked the idea you were going for and I broadly agree with your categorisations, but I think this video suffered from not clearly defining at the beginning what criteria you were using and applying it equally across all players. It felt like the criteria only developed as the video progressed.

It's impossible to know whether Jamarra is going to become a Buddy or a Patton, so I would have taken out the past six number 1s and saved them for another video evaluating them on talent level alone. I also would have used different criteria for the rest, with less focus on pure games played and more on overall contribution towards finals performance. Drew Banfield was a good example of this, lot of games played but what actual impact did he have?
Click to expand...

Drew Banfield played in 2 premierships and won a B&F, i mean he wasnt a dud, i remember his name and he has been retired for 14 years, so he must have been decent for me to remember him after all these years.
 
Davo-27 said:
Drew Banfield played in 2 premierships and won a B&F, i mean he wasnt a dud, i remember his name and he has been retired for 14 years, so he must have been decent for me to remember him after all these years.
Click to expand...
I don't think he's a dud either, I'm just saying I don't think his impact was as great as many other players who got to 250 games. But it's possible I'm underrating him.
 
Johnny Bananas said:
I liked the idea you were going for and I broadly agree with your categorisations, but I think this video suffered from not clearly defining at the beginning what criteria you were using and applying it equally across all players. It felt like the criteria only developed as the video progressed.

It's impossible to know whether Jamarra is going to become a Buddy or a Patton, so I would have taken out the past six number 1s and saved them for another video evaluating them on talent level alone. I also would have used different criteria for the rest, with less focus on pure games played and more on overall contribution towards finals performance. Drew Banfield was a good example of this, lot of games played but what actual impact did he have?
Click to expand...

Banfield is a solid 'B' and I do see separation between he and all the guys I rated a 'C'. 2 premierships. A B+F. 265 games I believe it was. He was a good (not great but good) mid for a long time and played during a lower possession era where it was a longer kicking, scrappier, contested brand that wasn't as handball happy as we see today.

As we see more #1 picks play good footy though and elevate the average standard of #1 picks, absolutely it wouldn't be unreasonable to think a Banfield could drop down to a 'C' tier.

The concept came from Jake Michaels who I had a discussion with and then again in the yearly ESPN Draft Podcast made the projection that Matt Rowell will become the third best ever of the #1 picks we've seen. So I wanted to challenge that idea and make my own list of #1 picks, as I found it an intriguing premise. No doubt I could have introduced and explained the concept better though.

On Jamarra though, he's the best i50 target I've seen in my time watching the junior ranks. The risk factor is no footy this year, but all reports I've heard is Jamarra has made big strides and found another level both physically putting on all that extra weight spending so much time in the gym but also athletically he seems to have furthered himself and increased his aerobic capacity, without having seen any of his past testing data.

It's perhaps a unique selection from me having him at #4. Most will have Rowell higher, and fair enough to those who believe that. Rowell looks fantastic which is why I have him at #5.

With the likes of McGrath/Weitering in particular I could be arguably overly generous in my rankings but I'm giving them an element of benefit of the doubt as I can see them either reaching or finishing with right around 300 games at the end of their careers.

That's the fun of the exercise though. It's about projecting ahead and really comparing the players. Those who have performed, those who are performing, and those who will in the future perform. I'd like to see those kinds of discussions made more.
 
Hi Knightmare any information on West Adelaide’s Nicholas Couroupis training with us seems like this year finally got his body right.

On Josh Green who gws didn't select in there zone seems like a type that plays a few multiple positions any upside in him.
 
db26 said:
Hi Knightmare any information on West Adelaide’s Nicholas Couroupis training with us seems like this year finally got his body right.

On Josh Green who gws didn't select in there zone seems like a type that plays a few multiple positions any upside in him.
Click to expand...

On Couroupis he's a strong contested ball winner and is a strong mark with some aerial capabilities so there are some tricks to work with.

Josh Green I've only seen in defence, I haven't seen him play any other spots. Very vanilla in defence and lacks a point of difference, and is more a good height/size but you ask what else he can do. He's someone I just wish could be transformed into a mid like his brother and then maybe we see if he can develop as being that bigger/stronger bodied type that's about all positionally I see any scope in him becoming. Inside mid is his best hope, but until he shows he's a good one, he's someone who has to go back to the state leagues to prove himself to be realistic.
 
Coming soon:

Moreira Magic's 2021 season guide.

I've taken on the job of the profiles and scoring projections of all those picked in 2020 which was a lot of fun.

With no AFL Prospectus this year, this is the guide fantasy football players should be investing in this year.

I only partner with the best and Moreira's Magic for fantasy football is without peer as the winner of AFL Fantasy in both 2017 and 2018.


Moreira's magic tweet.PNG

I'm thinking about getting Moreira's Magic onto my YouTube for an interview if there is demand/interest and he may also on his end have something similar in mind on his end. If an interview would be something of interest give this post a like. And if you have a specific question you'd like me to ask - respond to this post with your question.
 
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