Draft Expert Knightmare's 2021 Draft Almanac

[Knightmare]

Quick question KM. Saints midfield is falling by the day (pretty slim anyway) Coff gone for the season, Clarke gone for minimum first month and not sure when Jones will be back. What are you options on bytel and Byrnes? Can they step up? Think Owens might be in there earlier than we thought

My general advise to the Saints before Clark got hurt would have been to make him a full time midfielder and to view him as a #2 behind Steele.

Byrnes I'd be looking to pump games into through the middle. He was a terrific midfielder as a junior and showed progress last year with the Saints, so he's someone even if Clark weren't hurt I'd be looking to introduce more regularly to centre bounces and see with an extended stretch of games how he develops.

Owens is worth giving opportunities to this year, and he's someone who can play anywhere. He developed really well last year and no reason that rapid improvement can't continue. He was the one in last year's draft I was saying then, and will say again now was bid on too late and is a tremendous get for the Saints as an academy pick.

 

[botts]

My general advise to the Saints before Clark got hurt would have been to make him a full time midfielder and to view him as a #2 behind Steele.

Byrnes I'd be looking to pump games into through the middle. He was a terrific midfielder as a junior and showed progress last year with the Saints, so he's someone even if Clark weren't hurt I'd be looking to introduce more regularly to centre bounces and see with an extended stretch of games how he develops.

Owens is worth giving opportunities to this year, and he's someone who can play anywhere. He developed really well last year and no reason that rapid improvement can't continue. He was the one in last year's draft I was saying then, and will say again now was bid on too late and is a tremendous get for the Saints as an academy pick.

What about bytel. Bit of hype on him in his junior year and has shown glimpses. Thoughts on him?

 

[Knightmare]

What about bytel. Bit of hype on him in his junior year and has shown glimpses. Thoughts on him?

Bytel I'd have further down the pecking order personally. But with Jones and Clark out, I'd give him midfield opportunity. Just once Jones and Clark are back, I'd favour Byrnes to Bytel, with Bytel for me more a depth midfielder.

Ultimately with Bytel he lacks speed/skills/x-factor/versatility and really is just a depth calibre inside mid at this stage. He'll need at AFL level a strong stretch through the midfield to improve my perspective of his play.

 

[Bananabender]

This thread isn't really about the 2021 Draft any more.

 

[botts]

Bytel I'd have further down the pecking order personally. But with Jones and Clark out, I'd give him midfield opportunity. Just once Jones and Clark are back, I'd favour Byrnes to Bytel, with Bytel for me more a depth midfielder.

Ultimately with Bytel he lacks speed/skills/x-factor/versatility and really is just a depth calibre inside mid at this stage. He'll need at AFL level a strong stretch through the midfield to improve my perspective of his play.

Last question on this draft crop. We plucked Oscar Adams for 51. Sore him in the intra club and looked really solid. Took some good marks and kicks it really well. Do you know much about him

 

[Mutineer]

Josh Gibcus to debut 1st up after impressing Hardwick, thoughts Knightmare...

 

[Knightmare]

Last question on this draft crop. We plucked Oscar Adams for 51. Sore him in the intra club and looked really solid. Took some good marks and kicks it really well. Do you know much about him

Athletic and tall key defender. At this point he's a project and it would be a surprise if he appeared this year. I find him hot/cold as someone who can have some games where he'll take multiple contested grabs and then a bunch of games where he doesn't intercept enough or impact games. He'll need a few years in the VFL to develop his consistency, with his rate of development what I'd suggest tracking to determine long term viability or otherwise.

Josh Gibcus to debut 1st up after impressing Hardwick, thoughts Knightmare...

Allows Noah Balta to switch forward which unlocks his game and can allow him to become Richmond's most influential.

Gibcus being a first year key defender won't do a lot. Occasional intercept marks, he'll be competitive from a lockdown perspective, but won't generate any meaningful rebound.

 

[Mutineer]

Athletic and tall key defender. At this point he's a project and it would be a surprise if he appeared this year. I find him hot/cold as someone who can have some games where he'll take multiple contested grabs and then a bunch of games where he doesn't intercept enough or impact games. He'll need a few years in the VFL to develop his consistency, with his rate of development what I'd suggest tracking to determine long term viability or otherwise.



Allows Noah Balta to switch forward which unlocks his game and can allow him to become Richmond's most influential.

Gibcus being a first year key defender won't do a lot. Occasional intercept marks, he'll be competitive from a lockdown perspective, but won't generate any meaningful rebound.

How's Leek Alert projecting coming off his 1st AFL preseason? Up for selection already, haven't heard much media on him unlike Gibcus?

 

[Knightmare]

How's Leek Alert projecting coming off his 1st AFL preseason? Up for selection already, haven't heard much media on him unlike Gibcus?

Alert? Sounds like greater alertness would benefit your posts.

Aleer is a project. It's not about who he is this year, but who he is 3-4 years from today. What he does in year 1/2 doesn't concern me as much as his rate of development which is what I'd be focused on to determine whether he's tracking well. If Gibcus for the next 2-3 years shows a speedier rate of improvement than Aleer, that's when I'd be suggesting he's going to be the better footballer.

As a development timeline, Aliir Aliir had his breakout season in 2018 as a 23 year old turning 24 later that year and I expect a similar amount time to be required with Aleer given he is just as Aliir was, very raw.

 

[Mutineer]

Alert? Sounds like greater alertness would benefit your posts.

Aleer is a project. It's not about who he is this year, but who he is 3-4 years from today. What he does in year 1/2 doesn't concern me as much as his rate of development which is what I'd be focused on to determine whether he's tracking well. If Gibcus for the next 2-3 years shows a speedier rate of improvement than Aleer, that's when I'd be suggesting he's going to be the better footballer.

As a development timeline, Aliir Aliir had his breakout season in 2018 as a 23 year old turning 24 later that year and I expect a similar amount time to be required with Aleer given he is just as Aliir was, very raw.

Don't usually post on my tablet smart ass, predictive text got me.

The difference there which you should recognise Aleer is older and has played quite a bit more football in the last 2 years than Gibcus so his scope has to be superior I would have thought.
Surely you're also aware Leek Aleer was a member of the Crows NGA Academy right through as well so he's had plenty of development put into him coming through the ranks.

 

[Chris25]

To be fair, it's a pretty big deal that Richmond might finally have a good player under the age of 21. Of course the media coverage is going to be all over that.

 

[Knightmare]

Don't usually post on my tablet smart ass, predictive text got me.

The difference there which you should recognise Aleer is older and has played quite a bit more football in the last 2 years than Gibcus so his scope has to be superior I would have thought.
Surely you're also aware Leek Aleer was a member of the Crows NGA Academy right through as well so he's had plenty of development put into him coming through the ranks.

Aleer's development was stunted by injury. He had a broken fibula, dislocated ankle then further ankle issues and foot stress fractures following from there.

Before 2021, Leek was a key forward and was unexceptional. Last year he transitioned into a key defender and his play improved rapidly and he played the position really well despite being new to the position. With Aleer, the interest from me is the combination of him having the rapid rate of development (the most important thing in evaluating talls in my view and Aleer was one of the most rapidly improving last year) in combination with his attributes and athleticism. The way he plays, he can be an intercept marking weapon and will have no problems defensively. Unless Aleer doesn't continue to develop at a meaningful rate over the next few years, I don't see any particular reason to stop being bullish about his long term outlook.

If I compare that to Gibcus as a point of comparison, and you're right about the no Victorian footy, but his play at the very start of 2021 was his best and from there he was much less impressive as he became more defensively focused. There wasn't that rate of improvement demonstrated last year over that half of the season the Victorians played, so my confidence in him remains lower than my confidence in Leek. What I'm looking for with Gibcus is for him to start taking regular intercept marks and to start impacting games more frequently when those opportunities are there. If he can do that and have success defensively, he'll be a solid piece.

 

[Davo-27]

saw Gibcus in his game against us in the pre-season and he had a few falcons through his hands which were kinda funny(one that knocked him to the ground with a bloody nose), but the commentators sure loved him, good luck to him though.

 

[RedmanWasHere]

To be fair, it's a pretty big deal that Richmond might finally have a good player under the age of 21. Of course the media coverage is going to be all over that.

The media's been all about Horne and Daicos.

Gibcus is allowed some under the radar time for now.

 

[RedmanWasHere]

saw Gibcus in his game against us in the pre-season and he had a few falcons through his hands which were kinda funny(one that knocked him to the ground with a bloody nose), but the commentators sure loved him, good luck to him though.

No falcon can eclipse Big Boy's in his league debut.

 

[Rich01]

Gibcus being a first year key defender won't do a lot. Occasional intercept marks, he'll be competitive from a lockdown perspective, but won't generate any meaningful rebound.

The comparison to Aleer is interesting. Hopefully Josh will show more than just his lockdown ability. Looking at his work over the preseason his intercept work has been outstanding for a rookie.

Being 18 months younger also means the expectation on him to impact at AFL level this year should be much less than Aleer and absolutely minimal.

Getting games into these players early will be great for their development as they start to show their full capability as 24-25 year olds.

Hoping both have 80-100 games into them by then.

I’d rather our player went down the Weitering development path playing 100+ games by age 24 than the Aliir path playing less than 30.

There’s no reason why Leek shouldn’t be playing senior footy this year if he shows the talent and development that a mature age first rounder should.

 

[Knightmare]

The comparison to Aleer is interesting. Hopefully Josh will show more than just his lockdown ability. Looking at his work over the preseason his intercept work has been outstanding for a rookie.

Being 18 months younger also means the expectation on him to impact at AFL level this year should be much less than Aleer and absolutely minimal.

Getting games into these players early will be great for their development as they start to show their full capability as 24-25 year olds.

Hoping both have 80-100 games into them by then.

I’d rather our player went down the Weitering development path playing 100+ games by age 24 than the Aliir path playing less than 30.

There’s no reason why Leek shouldn’t be playing senior footy this year if he shows the talent and development that a mature age first rounder should.

My expectation with Gibcus is he can develop the contested marking and intercept marking with time to a good level. He showed the glimpses early 2021 that he can, he just needs to bump that frequency and consistency up further and develop into that marking force. Just whether it becomes an elite weapon is more what you hope than what you can say for sure. As per Davo's comment, he doesn't have that yet and it shows against AFL opposition. This year is just about Gibcus developing and hopefully being competitive enough to hold his spot and allow Balta to remain forward, because Balta can be an absolute gamechanger forward of the ball. With Gibcus, he's not going to do a Daicos or Horne-Francis and be a top-5 on list calibre piece this year, or even a Rachele or Ward who can be top-10 on list calibre this year. If he's competitive, it's basically a case of, that's a good start to his career.

With mature agers my finding over the years if often their rate of development exceeds, and ongoing exceeds that of those drafted out of the u18s. It's great when they can perform early, and most can, but with Aleer I don't see that as realistic given how far back he has come from. He'll need at least this year developing behind Taylor/Davis and when Davis retires, that hopefully will be the time Aleer comes in and takes over. If he gets a taste this year, that's beneficial, but I don't expect a lot more than that and just continued development. If he can boost those intercept mark and contested mark numbers and continue winning his 1v1s and limiting his direct opponent, that's all I want to see from him this year. Then after that, it's just tracking that year on year progress to determine whether he's tracking to develop into the long term piece the Giants thought they picked or whether he is unlikely to come good.

 

[Rich01]

My expectation with Gibcus is he can develop the contested marking and intercept marking with time to a good level. He showed the glimpses early 2021 that he can, he just needs to bump that frequency and consistency up further and develop into that marking force. Just whether it becomes an elite weapon is more what you hope than what you can say for sure. As per Davo's comment, he doesn't have that yet and it shows against AFL opposition. This year is just about Gibcus developing and hopefully being competitive enough to hold his spot and allow Balta to remain forward, because Balta can be an absolute gamechanger forward of the ball. With Gibcus, he's not going to do a Daicos or Horne-Francis and be a top-5 on list calibre piece this year, or even a Rachele or Ward who can be top-10 on list calibre this year. If he's competitive, it's basically a case of, that's a good start to his career.

With mature agers my finding over the years if often their rate of development exceeds, and ongoing exceeds that of those drafted out of the u18s. It's great when they can perform early, and most can, but with Aleer I don't see that as realistic given how far back he has come from. He'll need at least this year developing behind Taylor/Davis and when Davis retires, that hopefully will be the time Aleer comes in and takes over. If he gets a taste this year, that's beneficial, but I don't expect a lot more than that and just continued development. If he can boost those intercept mark and contested mark numbers and continue winning his 1v1s and limiting his direct opponent, that's all I want to see from him this year. Then after that, it's just tracking that year on year progress to determine whether he's tracking to develop into the long term piece the Giants thought they picked or whether he is unlikely to come good.

Agree that talls take more time and bring anything more than a contributor in their first couple of years is more than enough.

I also believe though that if they are good enough they should play at the top level to expedite their development.

Richmond should be looking at the way Carlton and Adelaide played Weitering and Lever early and reaped rewards from year three onward.

And GWS should be thinking the same thing with Aleer. Davis and Taylor shouldn’t be keeping him out of a tall interceptor role in the senior side if
Cameron thinks he is up to the task.

And if his rate of improvement is as fast as you think it will be, there’s no reason why he wouldn’t be playing consistently fast tracking his development even further for impact in future years.

 

[Knightmare]

Agree that talls take more time and bring anything more than a contributor in their first couple of years is more than enough.

I also believe though that if they are good enough they should play at the top level to expedite their development.

Richmond should be looking at the way Carlton and Adelaide played Weitering and Lever early and reaped rewards from year three onward.

And GWS should be thinking the same thing with Aleer. Davis and Taylor shouldn’t be keeping him out of a tall interceptor role in the senior side if
Cameron thinks he is up to the task.

And if his rate of improvement is as fast as you think it will be, there’s no reason why he wouldn’t be playing consistently fast tracking his development even further for impact in future years.

Haynes is the star intercepter for the Giants and one of the best in the competition by role/position while Taylor can be the competition's premier key defender, with Davis still capable.

Until/unless there is an injury for the Giants in defence to one of those, I don't see any route to games for Aleer.

It would be the same story with Gibcus if he was on GWS' list. There isn't no way to fit any more key defenders in there this year.

Gibcus' situation is the more favourable because there is that earlier route for games. But at the end of the day, you can only do what you can do, with the hand you're dealt. Even if it means no games for Aleer this year, it's just about continued improvement and progression with a view towards succeeding Davis or plausibly even taking his spot before that time if Aleer's development is a success.

 

[botts]

Mitch Owens playing round one for us. So stoked for him and really excited to see him under the big lights!

 

[Knightmare]

Mitch Owens playing round one for us. So stoked for him and really excited to see him under the big lights!

Love him as a talent. Huge improver last year. Hopefully that rapid progress only continues.

 

[Marcel Proust]

I’m not focused on stats. I don’t even look at them in such a discussion.

I don’t believe the current Richmond team is as good as it was just two seasons ago.

Players age, fringe players leave, injuries occur. Opposition teams improve.

Richmond also look to have had a couple of average to poor drafts in ‘19 and ‘20. So there’s a question about the ext tier of talent coming through.

Opposition teams adapt, and the league changes some rules.

2021 might have been an aberration, but until Richmond prove the doubters wrong, I don’t believe they make the 8.

Ralphsmith looked somewhat promising yet again.

MRioliJ was very watchable in the middle for the twos

 

[briztoon]

Ralphsmith looked somewhat promising yet again.

MRioliJ was very watchable in the middle for the twos

At work and didn’t see the game.

I don’t know what your fascination with Ralphsmith is about?

I’m guessing I mentioned him in some previous post, who knows when, and you’ve fixated on it/him.

 

[Marcel Proust]

At work and didn’t see the game.

I don’t know what your fascination with Ralphsmith is about?

I’m guessing I mentioned him in some previous post, who knows when, and you’ve fixated on it/him.

I thought you said richmonds drafting was s**t that draft pool era. You may be right but there seems to be some upside.

Cumberland was near BOG too v a side that had lost one game ever in the vfl

 

[Rich01]

Haynes is the star intercepter for the Giants and one of the best in the competition by role/position while Taylor can be the competition's premier key defender, with Davis still capable.

Until/unless there is an injury for the Giants in defence to one of those, I don't see any route to games for Aleer.

It would be the same story with Gibcus if he was on GWS' list. There isn't no way to fit any more key defenders in there this year.

Gibcus' situation is the more favourable because there is that earlier route for games. But at the end of the day, you can only do what you can do, with the hand you're dealt. Even if it means no games for Aleer this year, it's just about continued improvement and progression with a view towards succeeding Davis or plausibly even taking his spot before that time if Aleer's development is a success.

He gets his chance next week, if he’s up to it.