Pick 1

[cdcanman]

Form my source in the media last night:

Gws offered Tomlinson, pick 6 and 7 for Pick 1 and 21.

I can't believe that. After losing Boyd, there is no chance they move Tomlinson as well.

 

[cdcanman]

Thats signed Petrecca's fate

Melbourne are in a great spot to fill 2 needs. If I was them, I wouldn't even consider trading 2 and 3. They will end up with a key forward and a gun mid out of this draft. If St Kilda take McCartin at 1, great, they take Petracca and Wright. If St Kilda take Petracca 1, Melbourne take Brayshaw and one of McCartin/Wright. I could see Melbourne taking Wright over McCartin. With Hogan and Dawes already in place, Wright's ability to eventually play the 2nd ruck/forward role makes more sense for Melbourne.

 

[HBFlanker]

I can't believe that. After losing Boyd, there is no chance they move Tomlinson as well.

They have Jeremy Cameron, a returning Patton, Cameron Mccarthy as key forwards and then at pick 1 would more than likely take Mccartin and then at 4 would take a midfielder

 

[Periphery]

They have Jeremy Cameron, a returning Patton, Cameron Mccarthy as key forwards and then at pick 1 would more than likely take Mccartin and then at 4 would take a midfielder

What. No. In that deal they'd take Petracca at 1 and McCartin/Wright at 4. There's lots of mail saying McCartin will still be there at 4.

 

[HBFlanker]

What. No. In that deal they'd take Petracca at 1 and McCartin/Wright at 4. There's lots of mail saying McCartin will still be there at 4.

Either way they will be taking a key forward at 4 or 1.

There's no shortage of key forwards at GWS. They just need to ensure they lock away Cameron and Patton long term

 

[cdcanman]

They have Jeremy Cameron, a returning Patton, Cameron Mccarthy as key forwards and then at pick 1 would more than likely take Mccartin and then at 4 would take a midfielder

Tomlinson is ahead of all of those on exposed form. With Patton out for the season, he will finally get the opportunity to play closer to goal at times which will give him the chance to show what he can really do. Not sure why they would trade out a promising forward with 3 years development and good exposed form to start all over again with a first year forward. If they keep doing that, they never develop and improve, they just continue to be a developing team. If they did get pick 1 they are 100% taking Petracca apparently.

 

[The GOAT]

St Kilda were never genuine with this. Lol if they think pick 1 = 4,6 and 7; 4 and 7 is reasonable enough.

 

[thepoyz]

Reasonable isn't what the Saints are after though, they're chasing the motherload...

St Kilda were never genuine with this. Lol if they think pick 1 = 4,6 and 7; 4 and 7 is reasonable enough.

 

[Present Not Past]

St Kilda were never genuine with this. Lol if they think pick 1 = 4,6 and 7; 4 and 7 is reasonable enough.

Why is that reasonable? Pick 1 downgraded to pick 4 plus pick 7. Better off keeping pick 1.

 

[doppleganger]

The two times we had it it did.

Yeah Roo was a jet, but what if you read out Kosi first instead?

Why is that reasonable? Pick 1 downgraded to pick 4 plus pick 7. Better off keeping pick 1.

2012 Whitfield was pick 1, or you could have had Macrae and Stringer
2013 Boyd was pick 1, or you could have Bontempelli and Aish

If following through mathematically about best probability of bringing the maximum number of quality games into your club, you would trade 1 for 4 & 7 every time.

 

[c4v3m4n99]

Pick 1 + Pick 21 FOR Pick 4, Pick 6 and Pick 7?

GWS get their man, and Saints get three picks in the top 10.

 

[Present Not Past]

There's a certain awesomeness that pick 1 brings to your club. The photo ops, the PR, the column inches in the Sports rags. It's the attention that pick 1 draws to your club. It's the reward for finishing last.
I'm not saying that the players picked at 2 or 3 are any less talented than 1. It's just that they aren't pick 1.
It's that awesomeness that you don't want to throw away lightly.

 

[eaglespremiers]

On balance I'd back the players picked at 4, 6 and 7 to be much better in combination than the players picked at 1 and 21.
2013: Bontempelli, Scharenberg and Aish vs Boyd and Impey
2012: Toumpas, Macrae and Wines vs Whitfield and Hrovat
2011: Hoskin-Elliot, Wingard and Haynes vs Patton and Mitchell (f/s)
2010: Gaff, Conca and Caddy vs Swallow and Lamb
2009: Morabito, Rohan and Sheppard vs Scully and Bastinac
2008: Hartlett, Yarran and Rich vs Watts and Ballantyne
2007: Morton, Myers and Palmer vs Kreuzer and Maric
2006: Leuenberger, Selwood and Thorp vs Gibbs and Urquhart
2005: Kennedy, Dowler and Ryder vs Murphy and Stanley

Retrospectively imagine swapping 2005's pick 4, 6 and 7 for pick 1 and 21. Or 2008.

 

[Purple Suit]

Why is that reasonable? Pick 1 downgraded to pick 4 plus pick 7. Better off keeping pick 1.

I think it's definitely reasonable. This is who they turned into from years ago and I've left off any more recent ones since it's too early to tell.

2005 - Marc Muphy or Josh Kennedy (WC) + Paddy Ryder
2006 - Brice Gibbs or Luenberger + Joel Selwood
2007 - Kruezer or Cale Morton + Rhys Palmer
2008 - Jack Watts or Hartlett + Rich
2009 - Scully or Moribito + Sheppard
2010 - Swallow or Gaff + Caddy

I think pick 1 wins in 07 + 10. 09 is horrible and a draw with the two picks being better in 05,06,08.

Pretty close, but I'd still do the trade as you get two bites of the cherry. None of the number 1's seem to stand up to the hype anymore so I wonder if it's getting harder and it's a media driven, Gen Y thing.

 

[eaglespremiers]

I think it's definitely reasonable. This is who they turned into from years ago and I've left off any more recent ones since it's too early to tell.

2005 - Marc Muphy or Josh Kennedy (WC) + Paddy Ryder
2006 - Brice Gibbs or Luenberger + Joel Selwood
2007 - Kruezer or Cale Morton + Rhys Palmer
2008 - Jack Watts or Hartlett + Rich
2009 - Scully or Moribito + Sheppard
2010 - Swallow or Gaff + Caddy

I think pick 1 wins in 07 + 10. 09 is horrible and a draw with the two picks being better in 05,06,08.

Pretty close, but I'd still do the trade as you get two bites of the cherry. None of the number 1's seem to stand up to the hype anymore so I wonder if it's getting harder and it's a media driven, Gen Y thing.

You'd take Swallow over Caddy and Gaff?

 

[telsor]

Anyone think the value of pick 1 dropped when Boyd decided to walk out after 1 year?

 

[Prudster]

The other side of this is that as a poster mentioned earlier, Saint Kilda have holes all over their list. With 4, 6 and 7 they can pick up a KPF, a KPD and then whatever else they want with 7. Petracca looks a ripper, but taking 3 potentially elite players instead of 1 not only evens out the risk of the player flopping or being injured, but also means Saint Kilda can continue to pack talented youth onto their list and build up a really solid core, as well as a solid spine. Even for 4 and 6, i reckon Saint Kilda should still do it.

Having said that, Chris Pelchen with pick 6 especially (or any early draft pick) is a potential disaster waiting to happen.

 

[DAWESOME!!]

Think the Saints are in the same situation as the Dees last year. They have that many holes in their list that 2 good players is a better outcome than 1 great player.

 

[Richo83]

Don't see either of those 2 on massive deals traded for pick 6 and an elite player of the comp (at 28)!

But it's true for a lot of years. And should be more true when there isn't a blue chip key forward as part of the offer. It's hard to believe the second best player or second best midfielder can be significantly different to the top midfielder. Jaegar O'Meara would've been an absolute lock for number 1 his year without a doubt and Ollie Wines and even Brad Crouch have matched him step for step in their careers so far.

Yeah and I think it just proves that at 19, KPPs are often more valuable than midfielders due to their potential, and that Footscray are desperate to find a decent KPF. Because that's all that Boyd has over guys like Aish and Bontempelli, who, for the record, have very high ceilings. I'd take Aish and Bontempelli over Boyd any day. More output and you get two potential guns over one. If St Kilda manage to turn one top ten pick into two or three, they're very clever. But at this stage, GWS have enough talent anyway.

 

[Richo83]

The other side of this is that as a poster mentioned earlier, Saint Kilda have holes all over their list. With 4, 6 and 7 they can pick up a KPF, a KPD and then whatever else they want with 7. Petracca looks a ripper, but taking 3 potentially elite players instead of 1 not only evens out the risk of the player flopping or being injured, but also means Saint Kilda can continue to pack talented youth onto their list and build up a really solid core, as well as a solid spine. Even for 4 and 6, i reckon Saint Kilda should still do it.

Having said that, Chris Pelchen with pick 6 especially (or any early draft pick) is a potential disaster waiting to happen.

Agree completely on both points.

 

[Murraj1966]

Might as well sit back and wait to see if GWS want to act rationally.

Happy with 1, 21 and 22 as a consolation prize though, very happy.

 

[cdcanman]

Think the Saints are in the same situation as the Dees last year. They have that many holes in their list that 2 good players is a better outcome than 1 great player.

If you want to build a team that contends for finals, 2 good players would suffice.
If you want to build a genuine Premiership contender, you need elite level match winners. The opportunity to get the best 18 y/o in the country is doesn't come around that often. That's why you keep Pick 1.

 

[Richo83]

St Kilda trying to get a bit of media buzz hoping to spook a club like gws to trade offers.

2 or 3 clubs enquired... saints came back with ambit claim so clubs dropped it.

All of a sudden - we are fielding offers and their is a bidding frenzy...

Petracca sounds like a ripping lad, and emerging as the front runner for pick 1- but there hasn't been the hype about him as a clear standout as there have been some others. Given that, Pick 1 relative to other early picks holds less currency

I honestly don't think there's any player in this draft which demands first pick. Petracca is decent but his foot skills are not elite if you know what I mean. They're good but he's not a perfect package. Wright is good but ruck/KPPs can be an iffy prospect. Brayshaw isn't an outstanding athlete. There's no player which demands one give up multiple top ten picks to get.

 

[Richo83]

If you want to build a team that contends for finals, 2 good players would suffice.
If you want to build a genuine Premiership contender, you need elite level match winners. The opportunity to get the best 18 y/o in the country is doesn't come around that often. That's why you keep Pick 1.

How many times is the number one pick actually the best player in the draft? Not that many times. Just look at the 2012 draft, is Whitfield really better than Macrae, Wines, Mayes, Daniher or Grundy? I'd say no. Macrae in particular is IMO a fair way ahead of him.

 

[Richo83]

I think it's definitely reasonable. This is who they turned into from years ago and I've left off any more recent ones since it's too early to tell.

2005 - Marc Muphy or Josh Kennedy (WC) + Paddy Ryder
2006 - Brice Gibbs or Luenberger + Joel Selwood
2007 - Kruezer or Cale Morton + Rhys Palmer
2008 - Jack Watts or Hartlett + Rich
2009 - Scully or Moribito + Sheppard
2010 - Swallow or Gaff + Caddy

I think pick 1 wins in 07 + 10. 09 is horrible and a draw with the two picks being better in 05,06,08.

Pretty close, but I'd still do the trade as you get two bites of the cherry. None of the number 1's seem to stand up to the hype anymore so I wonder if it's getting harder and it's a media driven, Gen Y thing.

Extend it out to 2013 and it becomes worse for the 1 pick brigade.

2013: Boyd v Bontempelli and Aish, pick Bontempelli and Aish
2012: Whitfield v Toumpas and Wines, latter wins just on Wines alone
2011: Patton v WHE and Haynes, Haynes hasn't done much, but neither has Patton, and WHE looks like a gun

For me the 4 and 7 picks won in 2005, 2006, 2008, 2010 with 2009 being a wash. The only time they win is in 2007 and even then, it's close. Some of the wins for pick 4 and 7 are by a vast margin. Watts or Harlett and Rich? Gibbs or Leuenberger and Selwood?