Brownlow Medal 2010 (Part 2)

[FootyStar#1]

that was a hard game to choose i rekon, i went

3. a davey
2. b green
1. t boak

chances J Mcdonald, Rodan, Bennell

 

[sblack]

Anyone want to go over my spreadsheet of bets. Theres 96 atm so don't want to post them all in here, will get way too messy.

Just want to see if anyone can see any holes.

Think I may add more of combos with the big value guys, like NDS, Moloney maybe, Pearce. But these are the ones I am happy with so far.

 

[GoodesStuff]

I succumbed to my paranoia over using Watson/Thompson so much so I have just taken my 188 combos that included them and placed them again with Thompson only.

I'm now going to do the same thing with just Watson.

If they both get beaten ..

Watson wins.

Thompson SHOULD win.

 

[Effes]

that was a hard game to choose i rekon, i went

3. a davey
2. b green
1. t boak

chances J Mcdonald, Rodan, Bennell

Thanks mate; definitely a tough one...lots of players could get the votes. IIRC was a fast finishing Port that day.

 

[FootyStar#1]

i'd be more confident in Thompson then Watson, of the three locks i'm probably least confident about Brown. But saying that, if any of the three lose ill be shocked.

 

[fredd]

Can people post their votes round 9 Melbourne Vs Port?

I had

3 Green
2 Boak
1 Bennell

Boaks last quarter was amazing so he could get the 3 despite port losing.

 

[Effes]

I had

3 Green
2 Boak
1 Bennell

Boaks last quarter was amazing so he could get the 3 despite port losing.

Thanks

 

[DT_35]

Been having a think, I reckon Shane Tuck @ $7.50 IS worth a nibble..

 

[Saint KFC]

i'd be more confident in Thompson then Watson

Why? I really don't see it.

 

[Notorious_29]

i'd be more confident in Thompson then Watson, of the three locks i'm probably least confident about Brown. But saying that, if any of the three lose ill be shocked.

Yep same here, a lot more confident with Thompson. I'm pretty worried Watson might get knocked over, after all the winner from Essendon may only need 8-9 votes.

 

[adii_7]

watson had a good year. captain and yeah.. he will win essendons.

 

[Walshy_The_Goat]

Walker you are an absolute star. love your work @ brownlow talk. Thanks a lot for your help , you're a great man.

Cheers mate! As I say, i'm just glad to know people are actually reading my blog. Haha! Nah, if we can all help each other to win a stack come Brownlow night i'll be 2x as happy.

On Tuesday when the odds were released, I got home from uni at about 3 only to find out about it when I read all of the new posts in this thread. As soon as I saw the good news I dead set dropped everything and dedicated about 2 hours to setting out my multis and formulating my plan of attack. Smashed out quite a few combos to make the most of the opening value.

My fav's so far are: Sylvia $4/Green $4 & Boak $4.50. A big WTF, but no complaints from me!

I've done about 50 multis so far, with more to come. Also, just waiting for the groups to come out as that is where I made the bulk of my profits last year.

Here is my basic plan of attack:

Using Judd/Watson/Thompson/Brown as my anchors/locks. But am most weary of Douglas and Rischitelli causing an upset so in some multis I have only included Judd/Watson with other value picks/two horse races, just to cover myself. Other than that, i've multied up those 4 with numerous two horse race picks and changed the combos to cover myself somewhat and maximise my chance of success. The odds are quite generous in some cases, so spending an extra $10 to fund one extra combo is nothing in the grand scheme of the profit you make to win. Here are some examples of how I covered myself:

E.g. 4 Leg Multis:

WITHOUT THOMPSON/BROWN: 2 ANCHORS + 2 VALUE PICKS (COVER BET)

1. Judd/Watson/Sylvia/Boak (@ 30.29)
2. Judd/Watson/Sylvia/Cassisi (@ 16.83)

3. Judd/Watson/Green/Boak (@ 37.86)
4. Judd/Watson/Green/Cassisi (@ 21.03)

E.g 5 Leg Multis:

WITHOUT THOMPSON: 3 ANCHORS + 2 VALUE (COVER BET)

7. Judd/Watson/Brown/Swallow/Cooney (@ 26.92)
8. Judd/Watson/Brown/Swallow/Boyd (@ 43.08)

9. Judd/Watson/ Brown/Harvey/Cooney (@ 9.42)
10. Judd/Watson/ Brown/Harvey/Boyd (@ 15.07)

Here is an example of a regular multi with the 4 anchors:

REGULAR 5 LEG WITH 4 ANCHORS + 1 VALUE:

1. Judd/Watson/Brown/Thompson/Swallow (@ 15.07)

2. Judd/Watson/Brown/Thompson/Jack (@ 26.38)

3. Judd/Watson/Brown/Thompson/Sylvia (@ 15.07)
4. Judd/Watson/Brown/Thompson/Green (@ 20.73)

5. Judd/Watson/Brown/Thompson/Boak (@ 16.96)
6. Judd/Watson/Brown/Thompson/Cassisi (@ 9.42)

I would then do 4 anchors + 2 value, and so on and so forth, up until the heinous 10 leg multis which always make my mouth water.

 

[adii_7]

Cheers mate! As I say, i'm just glad to know people are actually reading my blog. Haha! Nah, if we can all help each other to win a stack come Brownlow night i'll be 2x as happy.

On Tuesday when the odds were released, I got home from uni at about 3 only to find out about it when I read all of the new posts in this thread. As soon as I saw the good news I dead set dropped everything and dedicated about 2 hours to setting out my multis and formulating my plan of attack. Smashed out quite a few combos to make the most of the opening value.

My fav's so far are: Sylvia $4/Green $4 & Boak $4.50. A big WTF, but no complaints from me!

I've done about 50 multis so far, with more to come. Also, just waiting for the groups to come out as that is where I made the bulk of my profits last year.

Here is my basic plan of attack:

Using Judd/Watson/Thompson/Brown as my anchors/locks. But am most weary of Douglas and Rischitelli causing an upset so in some multis I have only included Judd/Watson with other value picks/two horse races, just to cover myself. Other than that, i've multied up those 4 with numerous two horse race picks and changed the combos to cover myself somewhat and maximise my chance of success. The odds are quite generous in some cases, so spending an extra $40 to fund the different combos is nothing in the grand scheme of the profit you make to win. Here are some examples of how I covered myself:

E.g. 4 Leg Multis:

WITHOUT THOMPSON/BROWN: 2 ANCHORS + 2 VALUE PICKS (COVER BET)

1. Judd/Watson/Sylvia/Boak (@ 30.29)
2. Judd/Watson/Sylvia/Cassisi (@ 16.83)

3. Judd/Watson/Green/Boak (@ 37.86)
4. Judd/Watson/Green/Cassisi (@ 21.03)

E.g 5 Leg Multis:

WITHOUT THOMPSON: 3 ANCHORS + 2 VALUE (COVER BET)

7. Judd/Watson/Brown/Swallow/Cooney (@ 26.92)
8. Judd/Watson/Brown/Swallow/Boyd (@ 43.08)

9. Judd/Watson/ Brown/Harvey/Cooney (@ 9.42)
10. Judd/Watson/ Brown/Harvey/Boyd (@ 15.07)

Here is an example of a regular multi with the 4 anchors:

REGULAR 5 LEG WITH 4 ANCHORS + 1 VALUE:

1. Judd/Watson/Brown/Thompson/Swallow (@ 15.07)

2. Judd/Watson/Brown/Thompson/Jack (@ 26.38)

3. Judd/Watson/Brown/Thompson/Sylvia (@ 15.07)
4. Judd/Watson/Brown/Thompson/Green (@ 20.73)

5. Judd/Watson/Brown/Thompson/Boak (@ 16.96)
6. Judd/Watson/Brown/Thompson/Cassisi (@ 9.42)

I would then do 4 anchors + 2 value, and so on and so forth, up until the heinous 10 leg multis which always make my mouth water.

im going to pm you, your the genius with that blog

i love your idea

 

[beez]

Brad Green won Melbourne's B&F tonight, hopefully a good omen.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/brad-green-wins-keith-bluey-truscott-gong/story-e6frf9jf-1225913539920

 

[RU486]

I do think it is abit stupid doing $2 covering bets on almost every possible combination. IMO better off hedging a couple but risking alot to maximise profits.

 

[ackers29]

[/b]


snap!!!!!!!!!

Montagna is terrific value, my coins on him @ $5

 

[Walshy_The_Goat]

im going to pm you, your the genius with that blog

i love your idea

Haha! I wouldn't go as far as to call myself a genius mate, but thanks for the acclaim none the less.

I do think it is abit stupid doing $2 covering bets on almost every possible combination. IMO better off hedging a couple but risking alot to maximise profits.

I agree with this to some extent.

Once you get into the more complicated territory of 6-10 legs it means you'll have to make twice/three times as many more combinations than you would with multis with 1 less leg.

To me, this is pretty pointless, as it equates to you spending more money on useless combos where realistically only 1 will get up if you get the combo correct. The odds may be massive, but so to is the number of combinations you'll have to do in order to cover yourself, and even then a massive upset may derail each of your combos. I think there is just too much risk to try covering yourself when you're dealing with a massive amount of legs.

For me personally, my strategy is i'll be covering most of my combinations up until my 5 leg multis. Once I hit my 6 leg multis i'll start backing my own judgement and count, and taking a stab at who I think will win each club outright without creating combinations between '2 horse race players'. Instead i'll be including my anchors in different combos with who I think are the winners out of the 2 horse race players.

Hope that makes sense somewhat!

 

[Grimmjow]

For me personally, my strategy is i'll be covering most of my combinations up until my 5 leg multis. Once I hit my 6 leg multis i'll start backing my own judgement and count, and taking a stab at who I think will win each club outright without creating combinations between '2 horse race players'.

Atleast some posters have good sense of betting.

Heck, it may not be a $10k+ payout but id be pretty content walking away $5k rollie.

The 6leg+ is the fun and hopefully 'bonus' part of the betting strategy.

 

[Walshy_The_Goat]

Atleast some posters have good sense of betting.

Heck, it may not be a $10k+ payout but id be pretty content walking away $5k rollie.

The 6leg+ is the fun and hopefully 'bonus' part of your betting strategy.

Exactly right. Right up until the 5 leg multis i'll be using the combinations of who I think are '2 horse race players' with my anchors in order to maximise my chances of at least walking away with some profit for the night.

And if I happen to snag one or two 6-10 leg multis i'll probably become a full time Brownlow punter ala. BK.

 

[footyshorts]

Yeah, having the time and patience to try and cover all bets is a slow and tedious process...i can't sit still let alone work out hundreds of combinations. Backing my judgment and not second guessing yourself is probably the key to it.

Im outlaying 20 at a time on 4-5 leg multis, but my plan is to cover myself by putting 200 on Green and 200 on Sylvia, I really cant see another Melbourne player winning it.

 

[RU486]

Yeah, if it's a '2 horse race' then I use covering bets. Only examples of this I've used extensively are: Riewoldt/Deledio & Green/Sylvia/Other and to a lesser extent Goodes/Jack. Really have to trust your counts if you want to win some big money at relatively low output instead of doing 20 + multi's for one bet when only one combination is going to win.

 

[Cruiser23]

Been following most of the thread, couldn't keep up with all as it goes at the speed of light but i can't help but notice the amount of people believing Brown is a lock or an anchor. Firstly his price is just $1.40, for me to take that i'd have to be very certain of a victory, with Simon Black to deal with, for me, this is very risky business. The guy is down right loved by the umpires, in 07 he average 21 touches in a Lions 8 win season and managed 22 votes. The last two years he's managed 23 and 19 votes respectively, admitedly they were 10 and 13 wins seasons but the point stands. He's averaged 25 touches and still putting out quality performances, you're have a lot more balls than me to be taking an anchor against him.

Then don't forget Rischitelli has a 6 game head start on Brown and 4 on Black. He's had a very impressive year and is always right under the umpires nose.

You may have Brown in the lead by a couple (seems most have him 2 or 3 ahead) but you have to remember it's just an estimate because you don't have the final vote. There are always errors. Obviously there is some sort of risk in everything, but is Brown worth the $1,40? Personally no.

By no means am i saying he won't win it (i've got him 2 ahead in my count), just for me waying up everything, $1.40 is too short and i certainly wouldn't be calling it an anchor.

I'll be taking Rischitelli in a couple of my multis simply because his $17 is way too good to refuse, otherwise staying away from the Lions.

Hey, but that's just me...

 

[adii_7]

You would defs lock in a profit if you placed a bet on the following

Lock - Lock - Two Horse Race - Semi Risk Two/Three Horse Race

Judd - Watson - Harvey/Swallow - Jack/Goodes.. Cassisi/Boak.. Sandilands/Barlow.. Boyd/Cooney.. Hayes/Montagna
Judd - Thompson - Harvey/Swallow - Jack/Goodes.. Cassisi/Boak.. Sandilands/Barlow.. Boyd/Cooney.. Hayes/Montagna
Judd - Brown - Harvey/Swallow - Jack/Goodes.. Cassisi/Boak.. Sandilands/Barlow.. Boyd/Cooney.. Hayes/Montagna

Lock - Lock - Two Horse Race - Semi Risk Two - Bigger Threat Three Horse Race
Judd - Watson - Harvey Swallow - Green Sylvia - Jack Goodes, Cassisi Boak, Sandilands Barlow, Boyd Cooney, Hayes/Montagna
Judd - Thompson - Harvey Swallow - Green Sylvia - Jack Goodes, Cassisi Boak, Sandilands Barlow, Boyd Cooney, Hayes/Montagna
Judd - Brown - Harvey Swallow - Green Sylvia - Jack Goodes, Cassisi Boak, Sandilands Barlow, Boyd Cooney, Hayes/Montagna

Lock - Lock - Lock - Two Horse Race - Semi Risk Two - Bigger Threat Three Horse Race

Judd - Watson - Thompson - Harvey Swallow - Green Sylvia - Jack Goodes, Cassisi Boak, Sandilands Barlow, Boyd Cooney, Hayes Montagna
Judd - Watson - Brown - Harvey Swallow - Green Sylvia - Jack Goodes, Cassisi Boak, Sandilands Barlow, Boyd Cooney, Hayes Montagna
Judd - Brown - Thompson - Harvey Swallow - Green Sylvia - Jack Goodes, Cassisi Boak, Sandilands Barlow, Boyd Cooney, Hayes Montagna

Lock - Lock - Lock - Lock - Two Horse Race - Semi Risk Two - Bigger Threat Three Horse Race
Judd - Brown - Thompson - Watson - Harvey Swallow - Green Sylvia - Jack Goodes, Cassisi Boak, Sandilands Barlow, Boyd Cooney, Hayes Montagna

then take a punt on the locks + 2-3 values?

 

[AhSteveSteve27]

I think the phrase '2 horse race' as become so popular recently, it could even become just plain old 2 horse race now. Or even 'horsies.'

Best value out there so far though these things. Why touch St Kilda though? or Freo? Not much value there at all, and they're at least 3 if not four horsies.

 

[AhSteveSteve27]

waying up everything

Shame.

Of course he's a risk, its called gambling for a reason. But that's why the posters on this thread do their homework - so that it become an extremely calculated risk. Cover for Rischitelli (or Black if you like) and leave him out of a few multis and its no big drama. You're probably right, he's probably a touch short but should be in the 1.40-1.70 range, he polls almost as well as Black.