Hawthorn just get deals done. Sure, maybe the preference would have been $1M over 3 years rather than 2, but at the end of the day Hawthorn just needed to get it done.
When it comes to Martin he'll be getting a deal no matter where he goes that will see Richmond get the top compensation possible. This will be a first rounder after your first pick. You can spin that pick into whatever you like but that's all it will be.
Richmond won't match. Clubs have shown time and time again that they do not want to risk having to keep a player on a big contract that has shown they want out. It would breed contempt among the list knowing that this player is on mega bucks and isn't committed to the cause. They'll take the pick and they'll move on. Perhaps hoping to land a FA of their own.
Richmond won't match if the compensation pick turns out to be a Top 5 pick.
Richmond will match if the compensation pick is outside of that range due to us having a good year, and in that scenario, we'll request that a club either trades us a Top 5 pick, or finds a way to get their hands on 2 mid first round picks, and trades them to us.
With that said, if we have a good year, Dusty won't leave. He'll only leave if we're a Bottom 4 or 5 side.
So you're most likely right in the sense that Richmond won't match, because we won't need to. If Dusty's leaving, it'll be because we were s**t in 2017, and the compo pick offered will mean that we won't need to.
But if we finish in a high position in 2017 and he did for some reason still want to leave, we'll be matching and going against the trend, because we're not going to take unders for Dusty, and a compo pick that was like 12 or 13 in the draft would be unders by itself.