Hawthorn FC worst nightmare the 2017 Draft

[Pessimistic]

Not always clear who will have long careers

 

[Pessimistic]

I'm tipping in 2004 BF posters were saying "the list is flimsy with the exception of Crawford, Mitchell, Hodge. But they'll probably be better next year as they'll get a compensation pick as well as a high draft pick."

Hawthorn had only 4 wins for the season (so the list was pretty crap) but already has some high draft picks and potential and knew they would get some more that year.

And yes, the description is very close to what Ross Lyon has done, what makes you think it can't happen at Hawthorn if it's already happened at two other clubs who both went within a match of a premiership? All the key people besides Clarkson have moved on.

So the list is in better shape now. Maybe less a couple of young potential champions (potentially)

I'd say the admin now produces at least 50% better outcomes for a given raw talent than in 2005
The fitness staff are the same Ratten remains. Newman is still unbeaten at box hill despite hawthorn raiding its talent. No reason to be gloomy

Also Hawks fans were equally deluded about our chances through 2008. No one gave us a hope. Maybe even less hope than port 2007

We believed. Oh how we believed

 

[doppleganger]

Also Hawks fans were equally deluded about our chances through 2008. No one gave us a hope. Maybe even less hope than port 2007

You need a bit of a refresher - google is your friend sometimes.

Hawthorn was on the second line of betting prior to the 2008 season started, every man and his dog witnessed the great improvement of the young list in 2007 and there was still plenty of highly rated kids still yet to be unleashed.

Here is something to jog your memory, although thankfully the majority of the kids listed didn't come on as the Hawks could have been even better!!

Can guarantee that come the 2018 off season the Hawks will be no where near the second line of betting, unless it is for the wooden spoon.

http://blog.williamhill.com.au/sport/afl-season-preview-2008/

Hawthorn
Surely the only way for the Hawks is up. Their young list gets better every year and with players like Beau Muston, Travis Tuck, Mitchell Thorp, Jarryd Morton and Cyril Rioli looking for opportunities, the Hawks are only going to improve. William Hill Australia believes this group will be winning at least one flag in the next five years and if it wasn’t for Geelong they might even take it out this year.
Best bet – Like St Kilda, it’s hard to imagine the improving Hawks not finishing in the top four. $2.25 appears good value particularly as they are playing well in the NAB Cup with many Box Hill players.
Best value – Buddy Franklin to take out the Coleman at $9 is great value. He kicked 63 in the regular season last year as a 20 year old and will only improve. He hasn’t had his kicking boot on for the NAB Cup but William Hill Australia believes he will kick 80+ this year.
Worth a look – Sam Mitchell ($17) and Luke Hodge ($31 but not playing round one or two) always catch the umpires’ eye so it’s hard to see them not finishing well in the Brownlow. Jordan Lewis at $201 is also tempting but so far umpires haven’t recognised how good he is

 

[Scotland]

Hawthorn's current list really isn't much chop.

Burgoyne, Gibson and Hodge are finished. Not really breaking news there.

30: Puopolo and Roughead
29: Henderson, Frawley, Smith, Birchall
28: McEvoy, Rioli, Stratton
27: Vickery, Whitecross, Schoenmakers, Breust

I'd be surprised if any of these guys played in Hawthorn's next flag. Applying the 2004-2008 approach of Clarkson v1.0 then we're looking at 2016-2020 by which time all of the above will be 30 or older. You'd hope Breust & Rioli would still be around but a 30 year old Whitecross and Schoenmakers? Pass.

Hawthorn's 2004 list (pre Clarkson) had Mitchell at 22 and Hodge at 20 (#1 draft pick), Croad at 24, Crawford at 30, Williams at 21, Sewell at 20 (looked nothing special), and a few soldiers like Bateman, Osborne etc. With two picks in the top 5 then pick 7 from trading Nathan Thompson they added Roughead, Franklin and Lewis. They had the core of the 2008-2015 sides by the start of 2005.

The 2016 list is very different. Hawthorn have been at the pointy end of the ladder for 8 or 9 years in a row (worst finish was a once off 9th and they traded their draft picks to get Burgoyne including the compromised draft period. They topped up with Hale, Lake, Frawley etc. to keep this run going and you can't argue with the results. But it was always going to come to an end, and there aren't any soft landings in footy.

The best up and coming talent by draft position is Burton (pick 19, 2015) & Lovell (22, 2015), Howe (31, 2014), Hartung (24, 2013), O'Rourke (2, 2012 - by trade), O'Brien (28, 2012) and of course O'Meara and Tom Mitchell after last year's trade period. Hawks fans love to talk up their recruiting ("he's not Graham Wrong") but you can't consistently be out of the top 20 in the draft and bringing guys of the calibre of Wines, Wingard, Bont, Martin etc. Not a terrible group of 26 and under players, but there are no obvious future stars. Burton is good, but he's not 'holy shit he's only played 15 games' good.

Going into 2018 they enter the draft at about pick 30 or whatever it is. That's not where you want to be when you are bottom 4. The only way they get back in is by trading Breust or Gunston etc. and that's counter-productive. Be interesting to see the strategy over the next year or two.

 

[Leather Poisoning]

I don't know how people can say the list isn't much chop. There's a lot of premiership proven talent in the experience group and in the group of inexperienced there isn't enough exposed game time to say if they're good or not.

A list isn't much chop when there's a lot of guys that have played 150 games, have hit their ceiling and still are miles off it.

Our list profile needs work - the gulf between the experienced and inexperienced is too broad but you can't say it's a crap list.

 

[Bulldog Joe]

I don't know how people can say the list isn't much chop. There's a lot of premiership proven talent in the experience group and in the group of inexperienced there isn't enough exposed game time to say if they're good or not.

A list isn't much chop when there's a lot of guys that have played 150 games, have hit their ceiling and still are miles off it.

Our list profile needs work - the gulf between the experienced and inexperienced is too broad but you can't say it's a crap list.

Yes.
Anyone can say it is a crap list.

Hawthorn are still reliant on the aging premiership players and some of them are giving a strong indication that they are cream not cake.

Apart from Burton, who amongst the younger players are looking like they could anything more than the good ordinary role player type?

 

[Simple_guy]

Read the same/similar article at the time of O'Meara's injury (ruptured patella tendon with floating bone fragments) which spoke of:
- How rare the injury is, somewhat more common in the NFL where it is considered career threatening.
- Only two AFL players have done it ever, being Chris Knights and Gary Buckenara.

Knights (who has helped Jaeger and backed him to get back) had patella tendinitis like Jaeger prior to the injury. He also had complications around the joint as well as soft tissue injuries which is common, ending his career.

Buckenara is quoted in this article saying that whilst he got back to football, he was never the same player post injury. He was also a lauded, long-time Hawks recruiter who said... ... and we know what they gave up for him.

This article talking about the injury to an NFL star, says... and
The article also explains how the surgery isn't a common one and requires a great deal of finesse from a surgery stand point; with the idea being to restore proper tension in the tendon, but there's a risk of making it too tight or too loose. This could be a concern given Clarkson's comments recently about Jaeger's recovery from high loads and the mystery surrounding it.

It is generally considered after reading a handful of articles, that injuries involving a rupture of the tendon tended to have severe consequences.

One can only hope Jaeger can get back to playing some good footy but as I've said, looks a utterly terrible trade for Hawthorn with all things considered.

great post. I bet hawthorne supporters read this and thinking oh shit

 

[Lance Uppercut]

I don't know how people can say the list isn't much chop. There's a lot of premiership proven talent in the experience group and in the group of inexperienced there isn't enough exposed game time to say if they're good or not.

A list isn't much chop when there's a lot of guys that have played 150 games, have hit their ceiling and still are miles off it.

Our list profile needs work - the gulf between the experienced and inexperienced is too broad but you can't say it's a crap list.

"Premiership proven talent"? Who exactly are you referring to?

Burgoyne, Hodge and Puopolo who are cooked or close to it?

Or Duryea, Breust, Gunsten and Schoenmakers who all appear to be half the players they were with genuine stars around them?

Just because you won a premiership doesn't make you a champion

 

[WWSD]

Yes.
Anyone can say it is a crap list.

Hawthorn are still reliant on the aging premiership players and some of them are giving a strong indication that they are cream not cake.

Apart from Burton, who amongst the younger players are looking like they could anything more than the good ordinary role player type?

Tim O'Brien

 

[WWSD]

"Premiership proven talent"? Who exactly are you referring to?

Burgoyne, Hodge and Puopolo who are cooked or close to it?

Or Duryea, Breust, Gunsten and Schoenmakers who all appear to be half the players they were with genuine stars around them?

Just because you won a premiership doesn't make you a champion

Gunston is good no matter who's around him. He has been Hawthorn's most prolific forward in the finals since 2012. He would walk into every AFL club right now and be either their best or second best forward. Look at his record in the finals.

Breust averages 45 goals a year since 2011. Only Betts has kicked more goals amongst small forwards.

Smith has been one of the most consistent wingmen in the competition since 2011 and the stats prove it.

I love how you always discredit a Hawthorn players performance and potential, and then try and twist it to suit you're own argument.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Speaking of Cyril - how is his recovery going?

Has he been spending time back home in the NT?

Still in a leg brace. Doing rehab.

 

[Leather Poisoning]

"Premiership proven talent"? Who exactly are you referring to?

Burgoyne, Hodge and Puopolo who are cooked or close to it?

Or Duryea, Breust, Gunsten and Schoenmakers who all appear to be half the players they were with genuine stars around them?

Just because you won a premiership doesn't make you a champion

I was referring mostly to Roughead, Cyril, frawley, smith, Gunston and breust as proven premiership talent

They've all performed at extremely high levels in finals.

I agree that puopolo has lost pace and looks way off it, and I dunno what the hell has happened to duryea. Schoenmakers, well yeah he had one season where he was a pure role player in a flag side. Burgoyne and hodge have been amazing but they're on their last legs and won't be around next year most likely.

But that first list has plenty of good footy ahead of it and pretty much every team in the league would put in a bid if they were on the market.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

"We're gonna build a wall and Mexico's gonna pay for it." - Trump Fans

"Sam Mitchell is our next coach and West Coast's paying for it" - Hawks fans

"If we get rid of immigrants who take our jobs there will be more low paying jobs for 'Mericans" - Trump fans

"We got rid of Sam Mitchell who did the midfield job best so that our worse players would have jobs" - Hawthorn fans

"We're going to stop free trade agreements and bring manufacturing jobs back to the USA" - Trump fans

"We're going to trade in enough free agents to move from 2nd bottom back into top 4 contention" - Hawthorn fans

Delusional

Man, you're just a troll.

 

[Leather Poisoning]

Yes.
Anyone can say it is a crap list.

Hawthorn are still reliant on the aging premiership players and some of them are giving a strong indication that they are cream not cake.

Apart from Burton, who amongst the younger players are looking like they could anything more than the good ordinary role player type?

Tom Mitchell is pretty good.
Sicily has kicked a lot of goals foe someone of so few games
O'Brien is now showing signs and his stats are outstanding for someone of such a low game tally

So there's four.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Tom Mitchell is pretty good.
Sicily has kicked a lot of goals foe someone of so few games
O'Brien is now showing signs and his stats are outstanding for someone of such a low game tally

So there's four.

This sort of positivity has no place here.

 

[Scotland]

I don't know how people can say the list isn't much chop. There's a lot of premiership proven talent in the experience group and in the group of inexperienced there isn't enough exposed game time to say if they're good or not.

A list isn't much chop when there's a lot of guys that have played 150 games, have hit their ceiling and still are miles off it.

Our list profile needs work - the gulf between the experienced and inexperienced is too broad but you can't say it's a crap list.

Proven premiership talent: Langford, Shiels, Gunston, Duryea, Breust, Schoenmakers, Rioli, Stratton, McEvoy, Birchall, Smith, Frawley, Roughead, Puopolo, Hodge, Gibson, Bugoyne.

Langford, Duryea, Schoenmakers, McEvoy, Shiels, Puopolo are dime a dozen players. You'll find their equal in every premiership side in history. Even guys like Birchall, Stratton, Frawley... they're good footballers but they were always behind the match winning stars in the pecking order and always will be.

Gunston hasn't played in a shit side before and in 12 games (4-8) this season has kicked 15 goals. He's good but let's not get carried away. Breust, Smith, Rioli, Roughead are jets but are all nearer the end that the start - they aren't young talent. It's likely that by Rd 1 2018 Hawthorn will be without all of Mitchell, Lewis, Hodge, Franklin, Roughead, Gibson, Burgoyne, Lake for the first time since 2016. That puts a pretty big hole in the 2013-2015 premiership sides. I mean we still have Sam Butler left from the 2006 premiership side, but does anyone look at our side and go 'geez we better keep an eye on Butler and Sharrod, they're premiership players'?

I don't know why Hawthorn fans are so sensitive about criticism of their list. It isn't much chop, but that's not the end of the world. There are a bunch of lists that aren't much chop and none of those teams have won 4 flags in the last decade. You had an amazing run and your recruitment in that period allowed that run to continue, but that was always going to be at the expense of around now. Go back, do what you did 13 years ago and build for another tilt. If you think the remaining 'proven premiership players' will lead Hawthorn back to glory then you're destined to end up in Nothingtown with North and Richmond from recent years and us now.

 

[Leather Poisoning]

Proven premiership talent: Langford, Shiels, Gunston, Duryea, Breust, Schoenmakers, Rioli, Stratton, McEvoy, Birchall, Smith, Frawley, Roughead, Puopolo, Hodge, Gibson, Bugoyne.

Langford, Duryea, Schoenmakers, McEvoy, Shiels, Puopolo are dime a dozen players. You'll find their equal in every premiership side in history. Even guys like Birchall, Stratton, Frawley... they're good footballers but they were always behind the match winning stars in the pecking order and always will be.

Gunston hasn't played in a shit side before and in 12 games (4-8) this season has kicked 15 goals. He's good but let's not get carried away. Breust, Smith, Rioli, Roughead are jets but are all nearer the end that the start - they aren't young talent. It's likely that by Rd 1 2018 Hawthorn will be without all of Mitchell, Lewis, Hodge, Franklin, Roughead, Gibson, Burgoyne, Lake for the first time since 2016. That puts a pretty big hole in the 2013-2015 premiership sides. I mean we still have Sam Butler left from the 2006 premiership side, but does anyone look at our side and go 'geez we better keep an eye on Butler and Sharrod, they're premiership players'?

I don't know why Hawthorn fans are so sensitive about criticism of their list. It isn't much chop, but that's not the end of the world. There are a bunch of lists that aren't much chop and none of those teams have won 4 flags in the last decade. You had an amazing run and your recruitment in that period allowed that run to continue, but that was always going to be at the expense of around now. Go back, do what you did 13 years ago and build for another tilt. If you think the remaining 'proven premiership players' will lead Hawthorn back to glory then you're destined to end up in Nothingtown with North and Richmond from recent years and us now.

I'm really not offended - you can think what you want about our list, but referring to players as proven premiership talent (which is an objective fact) seems to have triggered an over response. People are rushing in to put down these guys, but why?

Why are bringing up Franklin? Hasn't been at the club for 4 years. Lake? Retired at the end of the three peat.

Frawley, birchall and Stratton behind in the pecking order? Who were our preferred back flanks and full back players ahead of them? This comment doesn't make sense.

Get on point man, we are talking about Hawks future, not guys that left the club years ago.

 

[Blue1980]

So the list is in better shape now. Maybe less a couple of young potential champions (potentially)

I'd say the admin now produces at least 50% better outcomes for a given raw talent than in 2005
The fitness staff are the same Ratten remains. Newman is still unbeaten at box hill despite hawthorn raiding its talent. No reason to be gloomy

Also Hawks fans were equally deluded about our chances through 2008. No one gave us a hope. Maybe even less hope than port 2007

We believed. Oh how we believed

Geelong were a super team in 2008, you guys were rated very highly and their only potential threat really.

Geelong were expected to win the gf and if it wasn't for terrible kicking for goal, would of. They left the door ajar and you guys were good enough to walk through it.

Don't set up a straw man argument here, how one has ever rated Hawthorn etc. simply not true.

 

[blitzer]

I don't think anyone is saying that Hawthorn have no good players and that none of their premiership players are any good anymore. However its clear that they no longer have the absolutely elite stars in their prime's anymore. Some players (as in all lists) have been the beneficiaries of those players.

Honestly I never expected Bruest, Gunston and Rioli (now injured but was playing awful) would have performed the way they have this year. For whatever reason though they have really struggled compared to their previous best form.

Nobody is particularly surprised that Hodge, Burgoyne, Gibson, Puopolo and Roughead (given his circumstances) haven't set the game alight this year. They needed a group of younger players to step up and generally they haven't. This means that a lot of the players with 3-4 good years left are now facing the prospect of an extended rebuild and probably not getting a chance to compete for a flag again.

A lot can happen in footy but its really hard to see Hawks winning a flag in the next few years. I think next year will probably be rock bottom for them. Hodge and Burgoyne will be significant losses even now. Plus they will have to turn over a few more players and put games into some more kids.

 

[Blue1980]

"Premiership proven talent"? Who exactly are you referring to?

Burgoyne, Hodge and Puopolo who are cooked or close to it?

Or Duryea, Breust, Gunsten and Schoenmakers who all appear to be half the players they were with genuine stars around them?

Just because you won a premiership doesn't make you a champion

How can schoenmakers be half as good as what he was? If you divide nothing by 2 it's still nothing.

Your overall point is correct. Having players who have previously played in premierships doesn't give them mystical superpowers.

 

[SA HAWK]

I was referring mostly to Roughead, Cyril, frawley, smith, Gunston and breust as proven premiership talent

They've all performed at extremely high levels in finals.

I agree that puopolo has lost pace and looks way off it, and I dunno what the hell has happened to duryea. Schoenmakers, well yeah he had one season where he was a pure role player in a flag side. Burgoyne and hodge have been amazing but they're on their last legs and won't be around next year most likely.

But that first list has plenty of good footy ahead of it and pretty much every team in the league would put in a bid if they were on the market.

Dunstall, Jarman, Platten, Langford & Collins were all proven premiership players too you could argue much better players than the ones you listed but we didn't get near another flag after 1991 with these players.

I see us now in a very similar position we were in around the mid-late 90's.

 

[Blue1980]

Dunstall, Jarman, Platten, Langford & Collins were all proven premiership players too you could argue much better players than the ones you listed but we didn't get near another flag after 1991 with these players.

I see us now in a very similar position we were in around the mid-late 90's.

That's probably more accurate.

Thing is every side in the league at least has some good players and youngsters with potential. Even in our worst times we have had good players. It's about how many good players and potential good players to everyone else, and on that I think they rank close to last.

Like many have been saying it will be interesting what approach they take over the next few years. I dare say the plan isn't to abandon the draft and focus on free agents to get them back into flag contention.

Hawks were still around the mark 92-93, may of even won again in 92 if they got over the eagles at subiaco in the first final. That era of hawthorn is probably similar to where Geelong are now, some superstars carrying them along but not much coming through.

 

[Jobe Watson]

Tom Mitchell is pretty good.
Sicily has kicked a lot of goals foe someone of so few games
O'Brien is now showing signs and his stats are outstanding for someone of such a low game tally

So there's four.

Sicily has been dropped twice this year from a team that is 2nd last on the ladder. O'Brien has been on your list for almost 5 years and has done stuff all. Not a lot to write home about there.

 

[Pessimistic]

Gunston has been a better finals performer all up than Franklin. (Some would say by a fair margin) He's younger too. Yet everyone's fawns over buddy but we should trade gunners ?

Someone quoted our 2004 list and I did match up current players to the 2005 list

I have 8 better than then. 4 worse and four equal

I had 2017 Roughead eqivalent to 2005 Stewart dew who hadn't even been recruited yet
Another example I had 2017 Rioli equivalent to 2005 Crawford even though they are different types of player. These are the oldest 2017 players I included as still being relevant in a rebuild

The 2005 players who won a flag in 2008 were quite young and 2-3 years younger than my 2017 equivalents. They did however beat doggies saints and Geelong in the finals who were 2-4 advanced as lists on hawthorn

Biggest issue is the midfield and the game going forward might dictate a different style of midfield than the Mitchell-Lewis-Smith-Hill plus rotations thus far

 

[SA HAWK]

Sicily has been dropped twice this year from a team that is 2nd last on the ladder. O'Brien has been on your list for almost 5 years and has done stuff all. Not a lot to write home about there.

O'Brien has shown some good signs just needs to do it more often and consistently.