Training 2017/2018 Pre-season Thread

[beartoo]

That's all well & good, but most of a player's development still happens in their first couple of years on the list. If they haven't developed enough to earn a debut game in that time, they generally don't go on to succeed further down the line. That holds true, regardless of player type/role, stage of initial development (i.e. project players) or injuries.

You can make all the excuses you like, or reasons why Doedee will be different, but the facts are very simple. Very, very, few players who were drafted in the 1st round, and failed to debut in their first 2 years, have gone on to have successful AFL careers. There's no escaping this - it's a historical fact.

If Doedee plays 100 AFL games, he will be just as big a statistical anomaly as someone who plays 400+ AFL games, or someone who is still playing AFL at the age of 40.

Any chance of you blokes agreeing that you don't agree?

 

[Vader]

No-one's wishing away a players weakness ....but try and name an AFL Player that does not have a weakness ....impossible, as there's no perfect player

You're not John Eales (who had the nickname "Nobody", because "Nobody's perfect"). Your previous post was a perfect example of wishing away Milera's weaknesses.

Firstly, the comparison with Judd, a comparison which is utterly ridiculous - and would be hilarious, if you weren't trying to be serious. Judd played 22 and 23 games in his first 2 seasons and was never dropped. Milera played 8 & 16, and has been dropped repeatedly. Judd & Milera have completely different physiques - there's no way that Milera will ever become an inside player the way that Judd did. Implying that Milera will change his game style, just because one of the all-time great players did, is an utterly ridiculous argument.

Then you started talking about roles & protecting the body. Once again, this is making excuses. Even outside players have to be prepared to put their body on the line sometimes, to win their own ball. They can't rely upon other people handing them the ball. This was one of the most glaring issues with Milera's game, and you can't wish it away on the basis of "role".

Youngsters will drift in & out of games. That's something which will improve with fitness and experience. But the refusal or inability to win the ball, to the extent that Milera showed last year, is disturbing.

 

[fabs33]

Any chance of you blokes agreeing that you don't agree?

It's an interesting clash we have here. On one side we have Vader who never predicts anything that goes against the odds, while on the other we have Wayne who relies entirely on instinct instead. I'm not sure that we could find two more diametrically opposed posters when it comes to assessing talent.

So don't expect them to agree any time soon.

 

[LC40]

Whilst certainly not jumping on the Marty 36 bandwagon , Hamish has not pulled any high draft pick winners in last few seasons with results yet and can only hope Doedee and Gallucci take some big forward steps and get a opportunity.
But when had a few injuries they had not done enough to get coach to pick.
Milera has opportunities but yet to show anything but rare good skills and distinct lack of aggression.

Lever was a pretty good pick, the other younger blokes just haven't been given an opportunity. This will change, both lads will be given an opportunity as each shows real promise. You can't fault their SANFL form they were more than ready but Pyke loves a settled squad and filled injuries with more senior/experienced players in the rotation last year.
Poholke will also get a game I'm sure.

 

[azza77]

CEY might not be the best example to use, given his track record (14 games in 5* seasons). If we have wasted a 1st round pick on a player who achieves as little as CEY, then Ogilvie will deserve the criticism that Marty directs his way.

* I didn't count 2017, as he spent the entire season on the injury list.

Yes, Doedee's a "project" player. He's not the first (or last) project player to be taken in the 1st round. That doesn't alter the statistics - the success rate for 1st round draftees who fail to play a game in their first 2 seasons is diabolically low.

I hope he makes it, but if he does then he'll be (almost) setting an AFL precedent.

I used CEY as an example because Rendell came out and explicitly said that CEY was a project player, and that he would take a good 4-5 years at lest before he thought CEY would start to have an impact.

And that’s pretty much what happened.

So again, Doedee taking a little longer doesn’t phase me like it has some others.

 

[Redleg Crow]

I posted this elsewhere, and it seems appropriate to re-post. Here's the list of top 20 picks since 2005 who played fewer than 10 games in their first two seasons. Yes a few come good (Tom Lynch, Robbie Tarrant). Most don't. Now yes Doedee can be one of the exceptions because of [insert reason] but it is not an easy task.



It also is why those wanting Francis need to come up with [insert reason] why he has not been good enough in the first two years but will come good. And the reality is there would have been many [inset reasons] for all of these players - "needs to build his tank/strength" "needs a couple good pre-seasons" etc

The point is not that such players cannot come good, but you need to come up with reasons why they have not - eg Harry Mckay - injury, Tim Broomhead - sickness and injury, Tom Lynch - playing for a top side that didn't need him.

And FWIW, I maintain that this is the make or break year for Doedee. He might not be in the starting 22 in Rd1, but if he does not play a stack of game this year, I think we need to start talking about him being a bust. At a certain point all the "oh he is a late starter to the game" talk becomes talk and he needs to show he is good enough. Again I am not saying he will be a bust - I do actually think he will play a lot this year, and I can see the logic of the "he is a special case and needed a couple years". But the longer that period goes on the more it sounds like an excuse for lack of ability rather than lack of experience playing the game.

He MUST play this year. And FWIW I think we should play him. Time to see what he has got.

EDIT - the same goes for Gallucci who does not have such excuses. This will be his second year. He must play more than 9 games or he goes on the list as well

EDIT - thanks to Kristof for noting Talia only played 9 games in his first two years. (0 in the first, 9 in the second) I added him into the table.

 

[Mego Red]

I posted this elsewhere, and it seems appropriate to re-post. Here's the list of top 20 picks since 2005 who played fewer than 10 games in their first two seasons. Yes a few come good (Tom Lynch, Robbie Tarrant). Most don't. Now yes Doedee can be one of the exceptions because of [insert reason] but it is not an easy task.

View attachment 450514

It also is why those wanting Francis need to come up with [insert reason] why he has not been good enough in the first two years but will come good. And the reality is there would have been many [inset reasons] for all of these players - "needs to build his tank/strength" "needs a couple good pre-seasons" etc

The point is not that such players cannot come good, but you need to come up with reasons why they have not - eg Harry Mckay - injury, Tim Broomhead - sickness and injury, Tom Lynch - playing for a top side that didn't need him.

And FWIW, I maintain that this is the make or break year for Doedee. He might not be in the starting 22 in Rd1, but if he does not play a stack of game this year, I think we need to start talking about him being a bust. At a certain point all the "oh he is a late starter to the game" talk becomes talk and he needs to show he is good enough. Again I am not saying he will be a bust - I do actually think he will play a lot this year, and I can see the logic of the "he is a special case and needed a couple years". But the longer that period goes on the more it sounds like an excuse for lack of ability rather than lack of experience playing the game.

He MUST play this year. And FWIW I think we should play him. Time to see what he has got.

EDIT - the same goes for Gallucci who does not have such excuses. This will be his second year. He must play more than 9 games or he goes on the list as well

Less than 10 games. How many did Talia play?

 

[marty36]

I posted this elsewhere, and it seems appropriate to re-post. Here's the list of top 20 picks since 2005 who played fewer than 10 games in their first two seasons. Yes a few come good (Tom Lynch, Robbie Tarrant). Most don't. Now yes Doedee can be one of the exceptions because of [insert reason] but it is not an easy task.

View attachment 450514

It also is why those wanting Francis need to come up with [insert reason] why he has not been good enough in the first two years but will come good. And the reality is there would have been many [inset reasons] for all of these players - "needs to build his tank/strength" "needs a couple good pre-seasons" etc

The point is not that such players cannot come good, but you need to come up with reasons why they have not - eg Harry Mckay - injury, Tim Broomhead - sickness and injury, Tom Lynch - playing for a top side that didn't need him.

And FWIW, I maintain that this is the make or break year for Doedee. He might not be in the starting 22 in Rd1, but if he does not play a stack of game this year, I think we need to start talking about him being a bust. At a certain point all the "oh he is a late starter to the game" talk becomes talk and he needs to show he is good enough. Again I am not saying he will be a bust - I do actually think he will play a lot this year, and I can see the logic of the "he is a special case and needed a couple years". But the longer that period goes on the more it sounds like an excuse for lack of ability rather than lack of experience playing the game.

He MUST play this year. And FWIW I think we should play him. Time to see what he has got.

EDIT - the same goes for Gallucci who does not have such excuses. This will be his second year. He must play more than 9 games or he goes on the list as well

I will defend Galluci and Doedee to a degree although Hamish stuffed up on not getting burton

We are in a premiership window its not the time to developing draftees, whether or not either get a crack this year will be determined by if the team performs like it did in the H and A like last year and be on target for a top 4 finish or like last year minor premiers

 

[Redleg Crow]

I will defend Galluci and Doedee to a degree although Hamish stuffed up on not getting burton

We are in a premiership window its not the time to developing draftees, whether or not either get a crack this year will be determined by if the team performs like it did in the H and A like last year and be on target for a top 4 finish or like last year minor premiers

Oh I am in no way saying Gallucci is a poor decision - I really like him and think he is going to be an excellent player - just highlighting that given he only played 1 game in his first year, this year should be the one he breaks through into the best 22.

 

[Redleg Crow]

Less than 10 games. How many did Talia play?

Oh good pick up. He only played 9. Not sure how I missed him. Will add

 

[kulak]

Less than 10 games. How many did Talia play?

Good spot. Talia played 0 games in year one, and 9 games in year two.

 

[kulak]

Oh good pick up. He only played 9. Not sure how I missed him. Will add

I would make many more analytical posts such as yours if I had access to a good database and the ability to query it.

Doing it manually is too much work beyond the odd occasion. I admire your patience...!

 

[Redleg Crow]

Good spot. Talia played 0 games in year one, and 9 games in year two.

Yep - must admit this process involved a lot of going back and forth between Footywire and AFL tables so not surprising I missed one (more??) odd that I missed Talia though!

 

[Redleg Crow]

I would make many more analytical posts such as yours if I had access to a good database and the ability to query it.

Doing it manually is too much work beyond the odd occasion. I admire your patience...!

Yeah. I'm a bit weird.

 

[Scorpus]

I posted this elsewhere, and it seems appropriate to re-post. Here's the list of top 20 picks since 2005 who played fewer than 10 games in their first two seasons. Yes a few come good (Tom Lynch, Robbie Tarrant). Most don't. Now yes Doedee can be one of the exceptions because of [insert reason] but it is not an easy task.

View attachment 450564

It also is why those wanting Francis need to come up with [insert reason] why he has not been good enough in the first two years but will come good. And the reality is there would have been many [inset reasons] for all of these players - "needs to build his tank/strength" "needs a couple good pre-seasons" etc

The point is not that such players cannot come good, but you need to come up with reasons why they have not - eg Harry Mckay - injury, Tim Broomhead - sickness and injury, Tom Lynch - playing for a top side that didn't need him.

And FWIW, I maintain that this is the make or break year for Doedee. He might not be in the starting 22 in Rd1, but if he does not play a stack of game this year, I think we need to start talking about him being a bust. At a certain point all the "oh he is a late starter to the game" talk becomes talk and he needs to show he is good enough. Again I am not saying he will be a bust - I do actually think he will play a lot this year, and I can see the logic of the "he is a special case and needed a couple years". But the longer that period goes on the more it sounds like an excuse for lack of ability rather than lack of experience playing the game.

He MUST play this year. And FWIW I think we should play him. Time to see what he has got.

EDIT - the same goes for Gallucci who does not have such excuses. This will be his second year. He must play more than 9 games or he goes on the list as well

EDIT - thanks to Kristof for noting Talia only played 9 games in his first two years. (0 in the first, 9 in the second) I added him into the table.

That is a painful list to read.

Two of the six players you've highlighted as defying odds to become "successful" are Jarrad Grant and Matthew Lobbe too. Yuck.

 

[Bring back Bas]

I'm sure that many (most) of the 1st round draftees who didn't debut after 2 years had/have similar stories. Maybe it's being a "project" player, maybe it's injuries, maybe it's both. The end result is the same. If they haven't debuted after 2 years, the chances of them reaching 100 games is less than 5%.

I really, really, want Doedee to buck the trend.

Don't get to concerned Vader. It is an interesting observation but lumping Doedee (or any player) in the same basket as every other first round draft pick in history is massive generalisation and not likely to prove very insightful. You would be better advised to look at his SANFL form, or if like me, you don't see much SANFL, listen to those who do. From all reports his SANFL form has been very good and his B'n'F support this.

If it makes you feel better, instead of comparing Doedee to other first round draft picks, compare him to other 19-year-olds with brown hair and he is way above the average to make it as an elite footballer - almost a certainty! Another gross generalisation but with a positive outcome.

 

[Golumless]

How do you see the side's pace overall, compared to last year ?

Will probably field a slower side in 2018

Slower because Cameron for Gooch, and ideally we switch out one of our outside players for Gibbs (who I think is slower the then all of Atkins/Mackay/Seedman/Smith) which will pay off for being a better side. It won't be by much though unless injuries destroy one or two players.

 

[marty36]

Don't get to concerned Vader. It is an interesting observation but lumping Doedee (or any player) in the same basket as every other first round draft pick in history is massive generalisation and not likely to prove very insightful. You would be better advised to look at his SANFL form, or if like me, you don't see much SANFL, listen to those who do. From all reports his SANFL form has been very good and his B'n'F support this.

If it makes you feel better, instead of comparing Doedee to other first round draft picks, compare him to other 19-year-olds with brown hair and he is way above the average to make it as an elite footballer - almost a certainty! Another gross generalisation but with a positive outcome.

Should you compare him the the runner up if Glenelgs band f if you’re looking at SANFLform


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[hey shorty]

Should you compare him the the runner up if Glenelgs band f if you’re looking at SANFLform


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

Well....... no. Thommo was our BnF, who was better than whoever spud Glenelg ended up with.

 

[GameofSloanes]

Marty “MartyWorld” 36 says Tom “0 games in 2 years” Doedee is no guarantee to become a league standard player. He is accused of being overly negative and wanting the AFC to fail.

Marty “MartyWorld” 36 says Wayne “24 games in 2 years and a 20% improvement from 2016 to 2017” Milera will be a champ, but no one accuses him of being overly positive and wanting the AFC to succeed

Meanwhile the board consensus seems to be that Milera lacks effort and may or may not make it, meanwhile Jake “21 yo 195 cm already the best intercept player in the AFL” Lever’s departure won’t be a problem because Tom “0 games in 2 years” has been doing nicely in the SANFL

Fair enough post. I agree with marty on the first, disagree on the second but hope I'm wrong, and hope the third is correct but suspect not

 

[GameofSloanes]

Watch some SANFL games then. There’s plenty to get excited about there.

Fair enough. His weaknesses must be addressed though

 

[GameofSloanes]

You see, i see Milera differently ......you've judged him on his 2nd AFL season as a 19 yo .....me, i see the enormous talent, the amount of time & space he has ....and his elite decision making & skills

Is he the finished product at 19 yo ? .....anyone believing this is simply naive

I did use the word yet.
I don't really see the skills and decision making that you do though, if anything he often looks rushed and panicky and rarely if ever goes into a contest.
He has time to sort this out so no i don't believe he's the finished product. But he's a ways off

 

[crows dude]

Good to hear Francou on fiveeaa mention Knight as one who has stood out to him

 

[marty36]

Fair enough. His weaknesses must be addressed though

The bays were lucky this year when I went Doedees turnovers cost adelaide the game I was pretty happy about it though


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[ad victoriam]

Will probably field a slower side in 2018

Slower because Cameron for Gooch, and ideally we switch out one of our outside players for Gibbs (who I think is slower the then all of Atkins/Mackay/Seedman/Smith) which will pay off for being a better side. It won't be by much though unless injuries destroy one or two players.

You are forgetting we Lose CC speed, but we also replace Lever and from last year Otten who was quicker than Lever.

We will be a lot quicker when you look at Doedee/Keith for Lever, McGovern for Otten, and Milera/Seedsman for Smith
Gallucci for CC is a slight loss but not as much as some think.
To me, Gibbs is not far from MacKay pace to be a concern but only by the naked eye.