Racing December Daily Punt - Jingle All The Way

[puntking]

whats everyone like at sandown today?

 

[iluvparis]

The way the weight scale is 4 year old colts rarely measure up in the Spring under WFA conditions, most of the time they are just not developed enough to carry the same weight as the older horses and beat them. I look to avoid them as a result unless they are obviously well suited.

It's not the weight scale that's the issue - its the horses ability. The scale is actually set to account for the the fact that they are less developed.

It's much more likely that the horse just isn't good enough than the weight scale is wrong.

 

[HeathySure]

WFA scale is a funny thing. the actual accuracy of the scale in theory is completely subjective. In theory you want the highest relative performance to win but there's nothing to mark it against. the only possible end point you could come to is deciding what proportion of 2yo's should win, 3yo's should win, 4yo's should win, older horses should win. and then change the scale to fit. then you have to factor that sometimes the 3yo's go to stud, some get injured, sometimes horses don't race consistently until 5 so you have to balance that out too.

i think the UK underwent an overhaul of the scale due to not enough 4yo winners.

Its stood the test of time. Best horse wins is what they aim for and it usually happens . I think you are overthinking it.

 

[FallingLiefs]

Its stood the test of time. Best horse wins is what they aim for and it usually happens . I think you are overthinking it.

Well again that’s subjective.

For instance just using saturdays race as an example. Before they increased 3yo’s weight scale 3yo’s won 46% of KT’s. Since 1999 when they gave them +1.5kgs it’s now 31%. What’s the correct weight/percentage? Hasn’t stood the test of time if it changed repetitively. Then ours is different to the UK so who is correct?

WFA scale is good but has flaws.

 

[iluvparis]

Well again that’s subjective.

For instance just using saturdays race as an example. Before they increased 3yo’s weight scale 3yo’s won 46% of KT’s. Since 1999 when they gave them +1.5kgs it’s now 31%. What’s the correct weight/percentage? Hasn’t stood the test of time if it changed repetitively. Then ours is different to the UK so who is correct?

WFA scale is good but has flaws.

Over a long enough sample the correct percentage should be the share they make up in the field.

 

[FallingLiefs]

Over a long enough sample the correct percentage should be the share they make up in the field.

sort of.

average older horses always make up the bottom of the field. generally only good 3yo's make the field and then opt to start in the field so that doesn't really work. i think you'd have to say, 25% years by a 3yo, 20% by a 4yo, 20% by 5yo, 20% by 6yo, 15% 7yo+.

in theory the idea is for the highest percentile horse/outlier in it's age bracket should be winning

 

[HeathySure]

Easy way of working it out
Run a bunch of horses over the same distance then take the average time of each age group
convert time difference to lengths difference
convert lengths difference to weight
theres your wfa scale
there is literally hundreds of thousands of races used as back data. Of course there is going to be outliers its the same where athletes peak early/late. Its not perfect but it works

 

[FallingLiefs]

Easy way of working it out
Run a bunch of horses over the same distance then take the average time of each age group
convert time difference to lengths difference
convert lengths difference to weight
theres your wfa scale
there is literally hundreds of thousands of races used as back data. Of course there is going to be outliers its the same where athletes peak early/late. Its not perfect but it works

this is the way i would do it and tried to do it just for a look but it's definitely not the way it's currently done. like i said i suspect there will be changes to come. personally i would have 3yo's +1kg 4yo's -1kg in the race on the weekend. as breeding tends towards precocity over ability the gap will shrink between 3yo's and older horses because people want fully matured animals at 2.5yo.

also another good one i heard was with outlawing of steroids the gap between mares and geldings has shrunk. i would like to see the gap down to 1.5kg personally.

 

[iluvparis]

sort of.

average older horses always make up the bottom of the field. generally only good 3yo's make the field and then opt to start in the field so that doesn't really work. i think you'd have to say, 25% years by a 3yo, 20% by a 4yo, 20% by 5yo, 20% by 6yo, 15% 7yo+.

in theory the idea is for the highest percentile horse/outlier in it's age bracket should be winning

That to me seems a classic assumption/fallacy that a human would make. If its a WFA race than generally 'only the good ones' from all the age groups should be starting. You can't just arbitrarily assign percentages like that - if the WFA scale truly works then each age group should win based on its long-run share of the field.

 

[FallingLiefs]

That to me seems a classic assumption/fallacy that a human would make. If its a WFA race than generally 'only the good ones' from all the age groups should be starting. You can't just arbitrarily assign percentages like that - if the WFA scale truly works then each age group should win based on its long-run share of the field.

yeanah. i'd like to see a string of WFA races you can show me in a some sort of grouping where the performances of the 3yo's equal their older counterparts on average across the board, without scouring for 1 race every 6 months where a slowie 3yo snuck into a 6 horse field.

using a simple metric as G1 winner or G1 placed would be useful.

 

[iluvparis]

yeanah. i'd like to see a string of WFA races you can show me in a some sort of grouping where the performances of the 3yo's equal their older counterparts on average across the board, without scouring for 1 race every 6 months where a slowie 3yo snuck into a 6 horse field.

using a simple metric as G1 winner or G1 placed would be useful.

Surely a man of your intellect knows what 'long run' means

 

[FallingLiefs]

Surely a man of your intellect knows what 'long run' means

as you would know the long run can easily be extrapolated from a smaller sample size.

 

[iluvparis]

as you would know the long run can easily be extrapolated from a smaller sample size.

Not from the amount of 3yos that race in Australian G1 WFA races imho

 

[FallingLiefs]

Not from the amount of 3yos that race in Australian G1 WFA races imho

you mean in australia, where only the good ones start in the wfa races?

 

[iluvparis]

you mean in australia, where only the good ones start in the wfa races?

As I have previously stated - once you get to G1 WFA they are all good ones.

Not enough 3yos race in our WFA to tell as they are generally not good enough.

Put it this way - the last place I would actually be looking to test the WFA scale is in WFA races - it is too small a share of the overall population.

 

[FallingLiefs]

As I have previously stated - once you get to G1 WFA they are all good ones.

Not enough 3yos race in our WFA to tell as they are generally not good enough.

Put it this way - the last place I would actually be looking to test the WFA scale is in WFA races - it is too small a share of the overall population.

i do actually agree with you you can't test exclusively at WFA and also the WFA scale should be between the two %'s share of field/total winners just due to to not enough races contested by 3yo's.

i still think that in races reasonably contested by enough 3yo's the win% should be very close to % of total active horses in the country in that birth year.

so if 22% active horses are 3, then 22% of WFA races reasonably contested by 3yo's should be winning. however it's always going to skew higher than their direct participation rate because slow ones simply don't start as often as the very good ones.

 

[iluvparis]

i do actually agree with you you can't test exclusively at WFA and also the WFA scale should be between the two %'s share of field/total winners just due to to not enough races contested by 3yo's.

i still think that in races reasonably contested by enough 3yo's the win% should be very close to % of total active horses in the country in that birth year.

so if 22% active horses are 3, then 22% of WFA races reasonably contested by 3yo's should be winning. however it's always going to skew higher than their direct participation rate because slow ones simply don't start as often as the very good ones.

Happy to also go by active population shares rather than share of fields

I'm not sure if horse racing talent is normally distributed or not but I think it would make sense to base the relative weights on what happens in the middle of the distribution rather than just looking at the top tail.

 

[FallingLiefs]

Happy to also go by active population shares rather than share of fields

I'm not sure if horse racing talent is normally distributed or not but I think it would make sense to base the relative weights on what happens in the middle of the distribution rather than just looking at the top tail.

It is, but the bad ones end up in pony club so not a 100% true representation.

Also at younger ages IMO the better horses start younger because they’re tougher and can handle it, but that’s just an opinion without facts.

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Champagne Boom to upset favorite in 2YO MM at Wyong?

Should be 2 from 2.

 

[iluvparis]

Champagne Boom to upset favorite in 2YO MM at Wyong?

Should be 2 from 2.

Beaten entirely on its merits at Flem I thought #noexcuses

Still looks like a moral quin

 

[juice t]

Champagne Boom to upset favorite in 2YO MM at Wyong?

Should be 2 from 2.

One Waterhouse squib down

One to go

 

[iluvparis]

One Waterhouse squib down

One to go

To think someone actually put up cash to have that as an Everest horse

Winner had dat Irithea form!

 

[Gavin Excell]

Happy to also go by active population shares rather than share of fields

I'm not sure if horse racing talent is normally distributed or not but I think it would make sense to base the relative weights on what happens in the middle of the distribution rather than just looking at the top tail.

Am i right in saying that maiden races in Australia are run at WFA?

 

[iluvparis]

Am i right in saying that maiden races in Australia are run at WFA?

They are run under all sorts of conditions.

There is one at Queenbeyan tomorrow that is a handicap and the top weight is a first starter!!! Seems a bit harsh.

 

[FallingLiefs]

Am i right in saying that maiden races in Australia are run at WFA?

in WA it's set weights, silly idea but open age maidens have 3yo's with about a half-third of what they would claim at WFA. NSW is generally handicaps. Vic doesn't have WFA maidens. so no, i don't think any maidens are WFA. closest they have is set weights and then allowances.