Racing December Daily Punt - Jingle All The Way

[iluvparis]

Is INVINCIBLE STAR legitimately value at $1.60 in the Wyong 34yo MM?

 

[HeathySure]

Is INVINCIBLE STAR legitimately value at $1.60 in the Wyong 34yo MM?

what a horrible horrible race
Into $1.55 now how much did you have on it?

 

[FallingLiefs]

Jockey managers no longer allowed to bet or tip in NSW as of March.

 

[iluvparis]

Jockey managers no longer allowed to bet or tip in NSW as of March.

At the same time they could lose access to promos and bonus bets - could be a tough month!

 

[FallingLiefs]

hopefully stays away from the other states, seems massive overreaction.


aka the Roheryn rule

 

[juice t]

Jockey managers no longer allowed to bet or tip in NSW as of March.

Confining Mark Guest to Melbourne

 

[FallingLiefs]

Confining Mark Guest to Melbourne

i guess we will see which managers/tipsters are actually any good on the punt.

 

[Lockyer24]

Anyone work out what happened to Aloisia? Racing in Sydney this weekend and they hope regumate will be the difference but she's been bog for way longer than that.

 

[Slipps]

Is INVINCIBLE STAR legitimately value at $1.60 in the Wyong 34yo MM?

Gonna multi into As It Lies at sandown

 

[juice t]

Anyone work out what happened to Aloisia? Racing in Sydney this weekend and they hope regumate will be the difference but she's been bog for way longer than that.

The Oaks broke her

 

[FallingLiefs]

Anyone work out what happened to Aloisia? Racing in Sydney this weekend and they hope regumate will be the difference but she's been bog for way longer than that.

1 off spike as a spring filly in the vase, from memory the rail was hot in the guineas. it happens.

they bottom out feel a bit of hurt have an internal bleed or muscle soreness (never reported after a win of course), then never really get back there. filly/mare only makes it worse.

 

[iluvparis]

Just another 3yo that isn't competitive when they have to race all commers. Happens all the time.

All the fillies she raced turned out to be utter garbage as she has

 

[IKnowtheDog]

i guess we will see which managers/tipsters are actually any good on the punt.

One is Tax Free Money. As Big Earn will tell you, you’ve got to supplement your income. Will be interesting to see if Deane Lester or Mark Hunter get caught by these rules if they come to Melbourne

 

[IKnowtheDog]

Anyone work out what happened to Aloisia? Racing in Sydney this weekend and they hope regumate will be the difference but she's been bog for way longer than that.

I’ll givr her another go. Her first two runs this campaign were good.

 

[Gavin Excell]

I’ll givr her another go. Her first two runs this campaign were good.

Yes there was a run at Caulfield i think when resuming or second up that was impressive

But hasn't gone on since that dominant Vase win Cox Plate day last year

 

[Gavin Excell]

Of this current batch of 3 year olds who goes on to be a consistent high level wfa galloper?

 

[IKnowtheDog]

Not TAS

 

[FallingLiefs]

Of this current batch of 3 year olds who goes on to be a consistent high level wfa galloper?

gelding no one has heard of, filly that has not started yet and medium level filly that improves a bit.

 

[Gavin Excell]

gelding no one has heard of, filly that has not started yet and medium level filly that improves a bit.

The Autumn Sun the obvious one but likely wont race on beyond next year.

 

[iluvparis]

Yes there was a run at Caulfield i think when resuming or second up that was impressive

But hasn't gone on since that dominant Vase win Cox Plate day last year

It was the Tristarc second up this prep - every other start in her last 5 has been very very ordinary. I won't be touching her until she shows something more.

 

[iluvparis]

Of this current batch of 3 year olds who goes on to be a consistent high level wfa galloper?

Rostropovich?

I still think Lean Mean Machine looks a likely type to become a WFA 4yo.

 

[FallingLiefs]

It was the Tristarc second up this prep - every other start in her last 5 has been very very ordinary. I won't be touching her until she shows something more.

mares race, soft track, leader maintains out front wins by 2 then SP's 15's next start. looks a fake form reference for mine.

 

[IKnowtheDog]

The Villiers doesn’t look that strong. I had a nibble and if she doesn’t perform that may be the end of her as a racing prospect

 

[TBellicious]

The way the weight scale is 4 year old colts rarely measure up in the Spring under WFA conditions, most of the time they are just not developed enough to carry the same weight as the older horses and beat them. I look to avoid them as a result unless they are obviously well suited.

 

[FallingLiefs]

WFA scale is a funny thing. the actual accuracy of the scale in theory is completely subjective. In theory you want the highest relative performance to win but there's nothing to mark it against. the only possible end point you could come to is deciding what proportion of 2yo's should win, 3yo's should win, 4yo's should win, older horses should win. and then change the scale to fit. then you have to factor that sometimes the 3yo's go to stud, some get injured, sometimes horses don't race consistently until 5 so you have to balance that out too.

i think the UK underwent an overhaul of the scale due to not enough 4yo winners.