Analysis Danger on Tim Kelly + his 2020 contract

[Nickoo]

I don't think it is Tim himself being at home, but more the expanded family being close for his wife.
Last year when Tim was away there was nothing for her, no support, no friends, back at home there's plenty of both (and this year in Geelong aswell).

Also she’s apparently become friendly with people in same situation as you do whereas last year she hadn’t. My god it would have been such a shock.

He’s a cool character Tim. Very impressive young man.

TK on big bucks with us may help as well as he’ll be able to bring people across as desired.


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[foxdog50]

I really hope he stays, but I still highly doubt he will

 

[AM]

He basically said bell (freo footy mgr) was one of his best friends who he owns horses with etc and bell was very willing to meet with them but he said tim said no (i suspect the partner said no due to whatever reported issue she has with the hill brothers)..its one reason why i think the mgr is out of his depth..someone like connors would have said something like 'we've considered offers from both clubs but due to a no of lifestyle and footy factors etc we've preferenced wce'..he would never have have thrown a client under the bus like that particularly when they might have to deal with freo the next year. I could have managed the PR better than that idiot as could most of us.

With the rest you make valid points but remember we have no reason to take unders unless tim is prepared to enter the draft or can bluff us that he is. We want to keep him so if we believe he will re-sign with us over the draft (even if his ptr is not liking it) then we will say no to wce unless they offer more than freo, otherwise its then tims call on freo or geelong. It was easier for wceto lowball last time as they knew they could try again next year, now if they dont get him this year they never will.

Last year he was an unproven first year player Geelong wouldnt have had much backlash trading him for unders as he was still fairly unproven this year he will probably win our b & f make the AA team and poll top 10 in the brownlow they will be under massive pressure not to cut freo out or take unders..i think you will find if the ptr refuses to talk to freo again geelong will threaten to send him to the draft even if its just a bluff, to save face with the members. Its why Tim needs a better manager who has the skills to get his ptr to meet with freo (even if she has no intention of going there) bc it will force wce to up their offer and the trade will be done early. If Tim wants to stay and the ptr doesnt and she still refuses to talk to freo i can see it getting real ugly real quick (at least in terms of the public pr) as Geelong will have to save face with the members in a way they didnt last year.

I think we can agree that TK was steadfast in his refusal to go to Freo this year even if we can't find common ground as to the reasons.

As for 2020, it's always concerning when a player delays contract negotiations even though the public face being displayed by all is unflurried.

As for how it will play out, who knows. If Tim is prepared to accept unders to go to the Eagles and remains steadfast, there will unquestionably be some brinkmanship but I can't see us playing the draft card and losing control. Sadly, our history shows we often blink first as we came close to doing last year.

It's not stop-the-presses stuff to suggest the final decision is in the Kelly family managements (partner) hands and that she's very close to her family. Possibly not even that keen on Geelong as a place to live either.

As someone wrote, I've also heard Caitlin is more settled and has more support this year. Whether that's sufficient to change her mind, only she knows.

The hope is (if our offer is the best one) TK and partner will come to the view that his time to fill his boots is short and they should go for it. And he'll be with a flag prospect too.

Being a pessimist at heart I'm not confident though.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

I raised Gaff in another post but unless is someone like that ..I don't see a club trading its R1 pick. The first round is not what it was last year as there are few is any talls but im sure by champs ..people will be saying that this guy or that in top20 players. I agree Freo , if they are prepared to offer 6 over 6 they would offer what they have ..but who are they trading out to get a pick? Cerra? It just spit balling really . I will happily be wrong if I am.. anything inside 7 would be decades in the making.. something like 8,9,10 ..yes I can see them trading that no issue.

I dont believe your supposition holds water. We are not auctioning Kelly. He will choose who he wants to play for ..and then we will neg. with that team.. and only if it breaks down does the other team come into play .. or not like last year.

The cats do not have zero rights in this though. The fact that the Wells has to agree to the trade means that WCE can't put a trade on the table that is massive unders. Maybe my auction analogy is a stretch, but two parties to the deal can't just cut the third out

 

[frggr]

Tim Kelly MVP so far, according to this statistical analysis


http://www.hpnfooty.com/?p=31703

 

[Gunf]

Tim Kelly MVP so far, according to this statistical analysis


http://www.hpnfooty.com/?p=31703

Post that in the mainboard thread and i bet the WC idiots dismiss it as biased

 

[frggr]

Post that in the mainboard thread and i bet the WC idiots dismiss it as biased

Your wish is my command

 

[frggr]

Post that in the mainboard thread and i bet the WC idiots dismiss it as biased

Wait, I got threadbanned from that one

 

[Gunf]

Wait, I got threadbanned from that one

Its ok i have posted it lol
What did you do to get banned?

 

[frggr]

Its ok i have posted it lol
What did you do to get banned?

Probably baited some Eagles nuffies during the trade period

 

[Turbocat]

The cats do not have zero rights in this though. The fact that the Wells has to agree to the trade means that WCE can't put a trade on the table that is massive unders. Maybe my auction analogy is a stretch, but two parties to the deal can't just cut the third out

I think this is another example of why the auction as analogy is not quite right.. House worth 1M ..and the most that is offered is 500 then no sale..
The conundrum in the the trade scnario is what happens if Geelong is only offered the proverbal 500. They just can pass the house in and put it up or private sale. All the down side for loss is with geelong, The potential loss for WC or Freo is only potential of what Kelly might bring. Its not like a Poker game either ..where all have anty up to play the game.

Its true we do not have zero rights but the trade situation is not balanced our way ... and in truth I think in a totally open trade system ..nor should it be. Now that he is OOC ... plenty would say he should be able to just go to another club if he wants to. Thats not the afl system.. but in the real world an employer has recieved his two years of contract and thats that.

 

[Toadvine]

Got him at $26 for the Brownlow a few weeks back. I'm feeling pretty good about it right about now. Hopefully he can keep it up

 

[supahoops]

Marlion Pickett to Victoria.

 

[fpm84]

Sadly Caitlin has shared via Instagram that one of the twins has this week been diagnosed with autism spectrum disorder. Makes their already challenging situation even more difficult.

 

[tomthabuddah1]

Sadly Caitlin has shared via Instagram that one of the twins has this week been diagnosed with autism spectrum disorder. Makes their already challenging situation even more difficult.

Thats heart breaking. I hope for the best for Tim and family.

 

[jim boy]

Sadly Caitlin has shared via Instagram that one of the twins has this week been diagnosed with autism spectrum disorder. Makes their already challenging situation even more difficult.

Not great and I didn't realise the older child also has ASD. Family must come first and if that means heading back west, then so be it.

 

[tomthabuddah1]

Not great and I didn't realise the older child also has ASD. Family must come first and if that means heading back west, then so be it.

Agreed. I had not realised the issue with the first child also. You would think Geelong will do all they can to facilitate a fair deal given these circumstances.

 

[fpm84]

Not great and I didn't realise the older child also has ASD. Family must come first and if that means heading back west, then so be it.

Sadly Tykeem (age 3) was already diagnosed and as of this week, Trey (age 1) is too.

The way Tim has conducted himself on and off the field this season with all this going on in the background is a testament to him.

 

[Turbocat]

Agreed. I had not realised the issue with the first child also. You would think Geelong will do all they can to facilitate a fair deal given these circumstances.

You would also think any destination club should do all they can ..etc...

 

[tomthabuddah1]

You would also think any destination club should do all they can ..etc...

You would hope there would be an agreed sensible approach given the circumstances. I wonder if TK misses this week now. He must be in a really difficult mental position and I would understand if football takes a backseat. Jurgen Klopp, the Liverpool manager called his players the mentality monsters, and I suspect TK is however one these types so will probably play.

 

[Down at K Park]

You would hope there would be an agreed sensible approach given the circumstances. I wonder if TK misses this week now. He must be in a really difficult mental position and I would understand if football takes a backseat. Jurgen Klopp, the Liverpool manager called his players the mentality monsters, and I suspect TK is however one these types so will probably play.

Pretty sure they always suspected. Its no surprise to them knowing for sure. They said that during the interview with the addy after the trade fell through that they believed the other kid had it to.

 

[Max Caddy]

Jeez that is tough news. Poor family.
Having said that, having money at their disposal will help with the best doctors, support etc.

 

[Keys]

s**t news for the Kelly family. Despite the difference in opinion our supporter groups have over the non-trade last year I’m sure we all wish Tim and his family all the best

Geelong are a well resourced and professionally run club so I’m sure they’ll provide every ounce of support they can

 

[donbooger]

My son was diagnosed age 3 at medium level autism, you can usually tell the seriousness from diagnosis age.

Being diagnosed aged 1 is serious business, it will be severe level and also no suprise to the Kelly family, you can see the diagnosis coming months\years off, making it official is a late step in the process.

I can't see him staying now with two kids on the spectrum, one being severe is too much to cope with away from family willing to help. His wife's actions make perfect sense now.

 

[Warhorse]

The lack of noise over here makes me think it is a done deal