Racing September Daily Punt- RIP Mikaela Claridge & Mel Tyndall

[iluvparis]

that's in all handicaps. non listed included. so it's a pointless question that your response wouldn't change if i said 1% or 100%

Lol if you believe that you should give the game away

 

[FallingLiefs]

tab #1 has a -46% POT in 3yo black type races over last 5 years.

 

[HeathySure]

It is the same fecking horse!?!?!! You can't get a better like for like comparison!?!?!

Tell me some of these horses who are having longer breaks and subsequently running ordinary then

its not just one horse. All you need to do is collate the data and show the stats which will show you how many have won... don't have the time or the resources at the moment but back in the day it was less than 2 percent

 

[iluvparis]

its not just one horse. All you need to do is collate the data and show the stats which will show you how many have won... don't have the time or the resources at the moment but back in the day it was less than 2 percent

Maybe you should check to see if it has changed

Back in the day you also need 10k in a horses legs to win a Melbourne Cup

 

[HeathySure]

What is their share of starters in races they contest?

no of 3yos who won against older horses is season dependent and i would almost be certain that 3yos would win a greater proportion of races against older horses because there would be way fewer runners.
its something some smart punter with the time to study might find an edge

 

[HeathySure]

Maybe you should check to see if it has changed

Back in the day you also need 10k in a horses legs to win a Melbourne Cup

i dont need too, almost every one that i lay loses

 

[iluvparis]

i dont need too, almost every one that i lay loses

Name some

 

[FallingLiefs]

Lol if you believe that you should give the game away

ok

there's 2 races

one has 10 3yo's in it of 10 horses. the race is run 10 times, each horse wins 1 time. thats 100 starters for 10 winners or 10%

the other race has 1 3yo and 9 9yo's, the race is run 10 times. each horse wins 1 time, thats 10 starts for 3yo's for 1 win or 10%

 

[FallingLiefs]

Name some

Written By, Kementari, Pierata, Invincible Gem, Speak Fondly

 

[iluvparis]

Some nice scarecrows there liefsy - all I want to know is do 3yo's win open age handicaps above there fair share given their insane handicapping advantage

 

[iluvparis]

Written By, Kementari, Pierata, Invincible Gem, Speak Fondly

Can't see where Kem The Cat, Speak Fondly and Written By qualify
Pierata mugged by Siege of Quebec but was still huge
IG did it and ran 3rd to Happy Clapper and Tom Melbourne - surely a pass mark in anyones book

 

[FallingLiefs]

Some nice scarecrows there liefsy - all I want to know is do 3yo's win open age handicaps above there fair share given their insane handicapping advantage

as i've shown you, yes they do. i don't know how else you would like it explained. 17% SR for 3yo starters in open hcp's in last year.

 

[HeathySure]

Name some

every single short waller stayer who does this 2nd up (almost certainly beaten by a Waller longshot!)

 

[HeathySure]

Some nice scarecrows there liefsy - all I want to know is do 3yo's win open age handicaps above there fair share given their insane handicapping advantage

they dont have any handicap advantage at all, in fact they have a disadvantage early in the season

 

[FallingLiefs]

Can't see where Kem The Cat, Speak Fondly and Written By qualify
Pierata mugged by Siege of Quebec but was still huge
IG did it and ran 3rd to Happy Clapper and Tom Melbourne - surely a pass mark in anyones book

SF last career start, Written by same.

i think it must have been picking up Kem's CF ORR because of that trial within 63 days.

 

[iluvparis]

as i've shown you, yes they do. i don't know how else you would like it explained. 17% SR for 3yo starters in open hcp's in last year.

That means nothing in isolation as you yourself have just shown.

 

[iluvparis]

SF last career start, Written by same.

i think it must have been picking up Kem's CF ORR because of that trial within 63 days.

Yeah WB also trialed so not sure how that works in Heath's fantasy land - he also seem to suggest it didn't matter over shorter distances so the 1000-1200 also seems hugely tongue in cheek.

 

[FallingLiefs]

Yeah WB also trialed so not sure how that works in Heath's fantasy land - he also seem to suggest it didn't matter over shorter distances so the 1000-1200 also seems hugely tongue in cheek.

i doubt that highly, heath hates 1000-1200.

 

[FallingLiefs]

That means nothing in isolation as you yourself have just shown.

re-read it, i suggest you are reading it wrong. that's an indivdual horse stat, not race stat. the average horse should win 8-12% of starts (number of horses in race). they massively overperform at 17%

 

[iluvparis]

i doubt that highly, heath hates 1000-1200.

Must be hard to train for him - you seem to be locked into whichever distance you start your prep in and then HAVE to run them every fortnight at all costs.

 

[iluvparis]

re-read it, i suggest you are reading it wrong. that's an indivdual horse stat, not race stat. the average horse should win 8-12% of starts (number of horses in race). they massively overperform at 17%

Wouldn't we expect that though given only the better 3yos would be running in open handicaps in town?

If your point is true they should be dominant across handicaps at all levels.

 

[FallingLiefs]

Wouldn't we expect that though given only the better 3yos would be running in open handicaps in town?

If your point is true they should be dominant across handicaps at all levels.

it drops to about 15.5% across the country. don't forget there is also a lot of slowies that are yet to be sacked going around at 3 so even to carry those and the metro good ones they still massively outperform their HCP rating.

 

[HeathySure]

Yeah WB also trialed so not sure how that works in Heath's fantasy land - he also seem to suggest it didn't matter over shorter distances so the 1000-1200 also seems hugely tongue in cheek.

horses that have a short break (31 to 80 days) and come back in distance is a totally different story. in fact when i bet during the week i only look at the days between starts and pick the eyes out of the ones who have been able to win in that class before. you would be shocked at how many long shot winners that produces. Clauses are dont back leaders and dont back horses over 1000m if they are coming back from 1300m or further and dont back them on leaders tracks.
I bought a house from this theory and i would have been way richer if freaking Zjelko didnt bring up these horses under the odds in Vic EVERY SINGLE TIME when the only place to bet on was the stupid tote.
it is a goldmine on wet tracks

I just told my secret. have told plenty before and no one listens.. thank god!

 

[iluvparis]

horses that have a short break (31 to 80 days) and come back in distance is a totally different story. in fact when i bet during the week i only look at the days between starts and pick the eyes out of the ones who have been able to win in that class before. you would be shocked at how many long shot winners that produces. Clauses are dont back leaders and dont back horses over 1000m if they are coming back from 1300m or further and dont back them on leaders tracks.
I bought a house from this theory and i would have been way richer if freaking Zjelko didnt bring up these horses under the odds in Vic EVERY SINGLE TIME when the only place to bet on was the stupid tote.
it is a goldmine on wet tracks

I just told my secret. have told plenty before and no one listens.. thank god!

Has there ever been a bigger after time in the history of this board? I doubt it

 

[HeathySure]

Has there ever been a bigger after time in the history of this board? I doubt it

you can ask iknowthedog if you like..