I'm not sure Hawthorn "know where they are at" based on their recent drafting.Bombers might not be the worst, but at least Hawks, Swans, North and Adelaide know where they are at.
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I'm not sure Hawthorn "know where they are at" based on their recent drafting.Bombers might not be the worst, but at least Hawks, Swans, North and Adelaide know where they are at.
Of those, only Swans have committed earlier then most for meI'm not sure Hawthorn "know where they are at" based on their recent drafting.
Short memory
Dominance comes in waves. Brisbane dominated, then were terrible, now better again. Port a pretty similar pattern. Richmond from 2002 to 2012 were as bad as anyone can be and look at them now.
Hawthorn have built one team that contended for multiple flags. For the 5 years from 2002 to 2006 Hawthorn's performance was as bad a 5 years as anyone else in the modern era. Then 10 years of success built off the down-period draft.
Hawthorn will be out of the finals for the second year in a row and looking at their list, at least the next 3 years so another down patch period. They might do well enough with draft picks to have another dominant era, or they might end up like Essendon/Saints/Melbourne/Freo/Adelaide and not quite get to the mark with that crop.
Sydney, Geelong and Hawthorn had sustained success, but Sydney's and Hawthorn's is over, Geelong won't be far behind.
Geelong got the balance right in transitioning the list. Always have. A very professionally run footy club. 3 first round draft picks this year and with the likes of duncan guthrie stewart and menengola as senior players they may have a dip but will come back up as long as they nail the draft and FA targets. I’m going with North. Adelaide have picks this year and a bunch of promising youngsters.Been hearing this about Geelong since 2010.
Since 2016 (the year after we missed finals narrowly by finishing 9th and the start of our 'rebuild on the run'), these players have come from the draft that have been in consideration for our best side this year and last - Henry, Stewart, Parfitt, Clark, Miers, Ratugolea, O'Connor, Close, Fogarty, Constable, Narkle, Atkins
We also have Nathan Kreuger - a player that Andrew McLeod mentored and said was one of the most talented young prospects he'd worked with - and Sam De Koning - who was drafted as a key defender last year, but was trialled as a key forward last weekend and kicked 4 goals.
That's not to mention the fact that we drafted Tim Kelly who we got a big return on, we now have three first round draft picks, and then another one next year. We also have our first rounder from last year in Cooper Stephens. That's before even considering free agency or trade (we will have had 7 first rounders from 2018-2021).
Bews, Rohan, Dahlhaus, Kolo, Guthrie and Menegola are all still in the 'prime' age bracket, and Duncan and Blicavs still have 3/+ years if they play their cards right.
Selwood, Henderson, Jenkins, Steven, Taylor, Stanley, Tuohy, and Ablett will all retire in the next two years, but I reckon Hawk and Danger have probably got 3 or more in them (which will give us time to trade/develop/draft a key forward and mid/s)- so this will be our proposed Best 22 in 2022:
B: Bews, Blics, O'Connor
HB: Clark, Kolo, Stewart
C: Duncan, Parfitt, Menegola
FO: Ratugolea/Fort, Danger, Guthrie
HF: Dahl, Rohan, Miers
F: Close, Hawkins, Atkins
INT: Fogarty, Henry, Constable, Narkle
We will still then have one out of Ratugolea and Fort, Simpson, De Koning, Kreuger, Cooper Stephens, 1st Rounder, 1st Rounder, 1st Rounder, 1st Rounder, all as possible decent talent, waiting on the sidelines. As mentioned before, this is all before even considering FA and Trade - I think we'll be fine thanks
Send me a message in another 5 years. I'm sure one day you guys will get it right about our 'inevitable drop off', lol
West Coast and Geelong finished top 4 this year (near enough). Of the teams outside the 8 listed there, you can have Hawthorn and Sydney, I'll take Carlton and Melbourne. We'll see which of those 4 finishes better over the next 3 years (I think swans might have another good year in them if Buddy can get on the park). But across the next 3 years, Carlton and Melbourne will comfortably finish higher than Hawthorn every year (barring injury).You've quoted a few exceptions, whereas I referenced 'rules'.
I like my theory better, but appreciate your thoughts.
To put it another way, I'd be willing to offer the following bet to any of my acquaintances:
1. You pick for me any team from West Coast, Collingwood, Hawthorn, Sydney or Geelong.
2. You pick any team from Melbourne, Essendon, Carlton and I'll throw in North Melbourne.
And I'll bet you as much as you like that the team you pick for me will will a flag before the team you pick for yourself.
Na mate, my comment wasn't about 'who finishes higher in the short term', it was about who has the ability to build a team to win a premiership?West Coast and Geelong finished top 4 this year (near enough). Of the teams outside the 8 listed there, you can have Hawthorn and Sydney, I'll take Carlton and Melbourne. We'll see which of those 4 finishes better over the next 3 years (I think swans might have another good year in them if Buddy can get on the park). But across the next 3 years, Carlton and Melbourne will comfortably finish higher than Hawthorn every year (barring injury).
Wtf is this post? We've won our last 3 games on the back of good performances from our youngsters and we're absolutely loaded with draft picks. I'd rather be a Crows fan than barrack for North or Hawthorn right now. I can tell you don't know what you're talking about too because you rate Fogarty when out of all our younger guys, he's probably had the weakest performances. The best youngsters at Adelaide are Schoenberg and Sholl. Fogarty would be close to the trade/delist pile if he doesn't pull his finger out soon.
Zurhaar could be that player. North has some really exciting youth; their problem is they have possibly the worst group of 24-27 year olds in the competitionIt can all turn very quickly and I remember thinking similar things 12 months before teh Dogs won a flag... But North list looks to be the most ordinary list I can remember..
Probably the most concerning thing is for a club with few supporters to have basically no players with any spunk... If you are a 12yo kid who supports North, whos number do you put on your back.. Ben Brown is the only one and there is talk he will leave.
That’s y not rationale then is it. There is no logic. You are guessing/assuming based on past performances.Na mate, my comment wasn't about 'who finishes higher in the short term', it was about who has the ability to build a team to win a premiership?
You're probably right in that Melbourne and Carlton may finish above Hawthorn and Sydney for the next couple of years. But do you honestly think Carlton or Melbourne have a flag in them within that timeframe?
Highly unlikely.
My rationale is that (either) Hawthorn and Sydney will win their next flag before (either) Carlton and Melbourne.
Big call but can’t see why not.Adelaide, North Melb, Hawthorn and Essendon. But, the past month of footy tells me the crows wont be in the bottom 4 for too much longer.
2022 will be the year we get back into the 8
Tarryn for meZurhaar could be that player. North has some really exciting youth; their problem is they have possibly the worst group of 24-27 year olds in the competition
Wtf is this post? We've won our last 3 games on the back of good performances from our youngsters and we're absolutely loaded with draft picks. I'd rather be a Crows fan than barrack for North or Hawthorn right now. I can tell you don't know what you're talking about too because you rate Fogarty when out of all our younger guys, he's probably had the weakest performances. The best youngsters at Adelaide are Schoenberg and Sholl. Fogarty would be close to the trade/delist pile if he doesn't pull his finger out soon.
Of course it's a frigging guess.That’s y not rationale then is it. There is no logic. You are guessing/assuming based on past performances.
I think there are a few categories of lists. It doesn't quite marry up to where teams sit on the ladder because it doesn't factor in coaching and injuries.
Group 1: In the window, make hay for the next 2-3 years but the cliff is coming.
- West Coast
- GWS
- Collingwood
Group 2: Strong list that is younger than I imagined, which frustratingly (for oppo fans) means they're likely to stay at the top for a while.
- Richmond
- Geelong
- Doggies
Group 3: A rebuilt list that is now entering it's prime - watch out comp these guys are set for a prolonged stay in the eight.
- Port
- Lions
Group 4: A rebuilt list that is older than you would imagine - need to capitalise now - and sadly probably doesn't have the foundations for a tilt at the flag before that next rebuild in 4-5 years
- Blues
- Demons
- Saints
Group 5: Coming out of rebuild, loads of potential, too soon to tell if it will be making up the numbers or destined for a flag, but I would be quietly optimistic if I was a fan
- Suns
- Swans
- Freo
Group 6: Accept that you're in for a rebuild - or spend the next couple of years 'rewiring' and then come to terms that you need to rebuild (also known as the Ross Lyon Freo years from 2016)
- Hawks
- Crows
- Bombers
- North
It’s wildOf course it's a frigging guess.
I don't have access to a crystal ball.
My explanation IS 'rationale' for my 'guess'.
Reckon you've got the most balanced list in the comp right now.Port while doing well has a balance of older and younger players. We should expect a minor dip when boak/rocky/gray/hartlett/dixon all start to decline, hope its short term and we transition the team quicker.
Na mate, my comment wasn't about 'who finishes higher in the short term', it was about who has the ability to build a team to win a premiership?
You're probably right in that Melbourne and Carlton may finish above Hawthorn and Sydney for the next couple of years. But do you honestly think Carlton or Melbourne have a flag in them within that timeframe?
Highly unlikely.
My rationale is that (either) Hawthorn and Sydney will win their next flag before (either) Carlton and Melbourne.
Reckon you've got the most balanced list in the comp right now.
I'm all over you for this year's flag.
Make that hay whilst the sun is shining!
Reckon you've got the most balanced list in the comp right now.
I'm all over you for this year's flag.
Make that hay whilst the sun is shining!
Bigfooty says your post was on Saturday and we'd won 2 games at that point.lol, calm down sunshine. That post was before you went and won 3 games.
No one even knew who Sholl was till this week.
Hit a nerve much?
I think there are a few categories of lists. It doesn't quite marry up to where teams sit on the ladder because it doesn't factor in coaching and injuries.
Group 1: In the window, make hay for the next 2-3 years but the cliff is coming.
- West Coast
- GWS
- Collingwood
Group 2: Strong list that is younger than I imagined, which frustratingly (for oppo fans) means they're likely to stay at the top for a while.
- Richmond
- Geelong
- Doggies
Group 3: A rebuilt list that is now entering it's prime - watch out comp these guys are set for a prolonged stay in the eight.
- Port
- Lions
Group 4: A rebuilt list that is older than you would imagine - need to capitalise now - and sadly probably doesn't have the foundations for a tilt at the flag before that next rebuild in 4-5 years
- Blues
- Demons
- Saints
Group 5: Coming out of rebuild, loads of potential, too soon to tell if it will be making up the numbers or destined for a flag, but I would be quietly optimistic if I was a fan
- Suns
- Swans
- Freo
Group 6: Accept that you're in for a rebuild - or spend the next couple of years 'rewiring' and then come to terms that you need to rebuild (also known as the Ross Lyon Freo years from 2016)
- Hawks
- Crows
- Bombers
- North