Analysis What list is in the worst state?

[CakeEater]

I am happy to take criticism of Carlton's list, but I think the spine is the least of our problems...

FB: Jones (29)
CHB: Weitering (22)
Ruck: De Koening (21) / Mid: Cripps (25)
CHF: Curnow (23)
FF: McKay (22)

I dare say that would be one of the better 'youth' spine in the league

We definitely need more mids and quality smalls tho.

De Koening ill grant you is a likely type and Weitering is a neat player but not great ( he'll play 200 games but hes a bit vanilla)

Curnow and Mackay are inconsistent.

Murphy and Ed curnow are playing in the mid

Cripps look injured.

Dow walsh sps havent come on at all.

 

[Pykie]

North is the worst by a stretch. They have publicly stated that their 4 untouchables are Cunnington, Goldstein, Higgins and Ziebell.

Two of these blokes are 32, 2 are 30 next year.

Why do you think that would be?

Goldstein, Higgins and Ziebell are all effectively worthless on the trade table and Cunnington is the last type of player you would trade when undertaking a rebuild. Why would you trade those former 3 for 4th rounders when the salary cap isn't an issue at all?

I'm pretty bullish on us over the next few years, we absolutely need a rebuild, but the u/22 foundation is already very strong. We've had the second most RS noms in the last 3 years behind the GC.

We will add 2 x top 10 picks this year, potentially a few more first rounders if Brown decides to leave and a whole range of perenially injured types finally come off the list meaning we can finally get some clear air with a fit list.

Another 2 drafts in the bottom 3 and we will have one of the better young groups in the AFL imo.

Our issue is the 22-26 year old age group, which we seem to be trying to at least rectify with FA's like Corr and Zac Williams.

 

[FairKouta]

De Koening ill grant you is a likely type and Weitering is a neat player but not great ( he'll play 200 games but hes a bit vanilla)

Curnow and Mackay are inconsistent.

Murphy and Ed curnow are playing in the mid

Cripps look injured.

Dow walsh sps havent come on at all.

Walsh hasn’t come on ?
Weitering a key back is vanilla.
Your board last year was crucifying brayshaw and cerra for being vanilla and not being damaging enough.
Cripps is Cripps anyone that says he isn’t A grade knows nothing.

 

[CakeEater]

Walsh hasn’t come on ?
Weitering a key back is vanilla.
Your board last year was crucifying brayshaw and cerra for being vanilla and not being damaging enough.
Cripps is Cripps anyone that says he isn’t A grade knows nothing.

Walsh
Reminds me alot of Rhys Palmer. Burns the ball but runs hard. Hes also a rising star winner too

Weitering
Is very Vanilla.
Got towelled up by Tabs and hasnt shown much.
Will play 200 games though.

Brayshaw and Cerra.
Cerra was played out of position on HBF (hes now in the midfield and look what hes doing).
Brayshaq is an inside bull which was well known and was getting midfield minutes

Just on Brayshaw and Cerra- if you can find me a negative post from me i'd like to see it.

Cripps
looks injured and slow this season.
Haant torn games up this season unlike last season.

Good step past on my Dow Sps analysis though- ill take it that you agree?

 

[TheMcManusNose]

Why do you think that would be?

Goldstein, Higgins and Ziebell are all effectively worthless on the trade table and Cunnington is the last type of player you would trade when undertaking a rebuild. Why would you trade those former 3 for 4th rounders when the salary cap isn't an issue at all?

I'm pretty bullish on us over the next few years, we absolutely need a rebuild, but the u/22 foundation is already very strong. We've had the second most RS noms in the last 3 years behind the GC.

We will add 2 x top 10 picks this year, potentially a few more first rounders if Brown decides to leave and a whole range of perenially injured types finally come off the list meaning we can finally get some clear air with a fit list.

Another 2 drafts in the bottom 3 and we will have one of the better young groups in the AFL imo.

Our issue is the 22-26 year old age group, which we seem to be trying to at least rectify with FA's like Corr and Zac Williams.

Yeah I actually think North is in a decent spot despite appearances.

Simpkin is a genuine elite player in the making and while I can't really pick another young player out like that you have a heap of guys who at the very least have shown enough to suggest they will be decent B graders, and A graders if they make the next step. Scott, Zuurhar, LDU, Thomas, Taylor, Vickers-Willis, Larkey. There's a few others who are a bit more speculative but there's a kind of under 23 nucleus forming there.

As you say at the moment it's too top and bottom heavy. I think apart from the age group issue you also lack real star power there beyond Simpkin, although with 2 firsts in this draft and a couple more years picking top-5 you'd think that problem will solve itself. It'll require a couple of years of being s**t though.

 

[FairKouta]

Walsh
Reminds me alot of Rhys Palmer. Burns the ball but runs hard. Hes also a rising star winner too

Weitering
Is very Vanilla.
Got towelled up by Tabs and hasnt shown much.
Will play 200 games though.

Brayshaw and Cerra.
Cerra was played out of position on HBF (hes now in the midfield and look what hes doing).
Brayshaq is an inside bull which was well known and was getting midfield minutes

Just on Brayshaw and Cerra- if you can find me a negative post from me i'd like to see it.

Cripps
looks injured and slow this season.
Haant torn games up this season unlike last season.

Good step past on my Dow Sps analysis though- ill take it that you agree?

I do agree haven’t come on like we expected.
But your take on walsh is absolutely bewildering to me however it is your opinion. Tabener got a few gifts from the umpire but he did get the better of weiters that dad. Weitering is better than any of your defenders though. Mckay is better than any of your forwards.

 

[HairyO]

Christ what an uninspiring list that is.

In four years Tom Mitchell and Sam Frost will both be 30+ and clogging up the "One Year Two Many" thread like half your current list is.

Can't see a genuine star amongst that lot.

At the end of 2014 how many stars did the Dogs have? You know, when their Captain had the Coach sacked them promptly quit the club.

How about Richmond at the end of 2016 when the Swans beat them by over 100 points?

Even 2 years is a lifetime in football. Though at least you are focussing on 4 years, not the usual "Will need to rebuild for a decade" rubbish so many in BF say.

 

[Toump Ass]

At the end of 2014 how many stars did the Dogs have? You know, when their Captain had the Coach sacked them promptly quit the club.

Smart move sacking McCartney... only took two years after he left to win a flag. Had a fair bit of talent on the list: Bontempelli looked like a star from day dot, Libba was a clearance beast from his first season... McRae looked bloody good, Murphy was a decent enough replacement for a captain, Easton Wood, they had a bunch of great players.

How about Richmond at the end of 2016 when the Swans beat them by over 100 points?

A Brownlow medal winning captain, one of the best backmen I've seen in my lifetime, one of the best KPFs in the game, Dusty Martin, + a bunch of very good players like Vlaustin, Grimes, etc.

Even 2 years is a lifetime in football. Though at least you are focussing on 4 years, not the usual "Will need to rebuild for a decade" rubbish so many in BF say.

Agree the "ten years" is a stretch.

IMO 2 years is not long enough to rejuvenate a poor list.

 

[HairyO]

A Brownlow medal winning captain, one of the best backmen I've seen in my lifetime, one of the best KPFs in the game, Dusty Martin, + a bunch of very good players like Vlaustin, Grimes, etc.

Yet were flogged by 17 goals. And Dusty at that time was nowhere near where he got to even 1 year later, despite getting an AA.

 

[Toump Ass]

Yet were flogged by 17 goals. And Dusty at that time was nowhere near where he got to even 1 year later, despite getting an AA.

I'm not sure what point you are trying to make.

Hawthorn's list profile is nothing like Richmond 2016.

Richmond had a bunch of high draft picks, all-australians, a (multiple) coleman medalist, a Brownlow medalist for a captain, and all relatively young.

Richmond's s**t year in 2016 wasn't because of the players, hence the huge amount of pressure on Hardwick to keep his job, the board challenge, etc.

 

[Dr Awkward]

North and Hawthorn for me.

Adelaide have a bit to work with and if they didn't have so many injuries they would have gone alright.

The concerning thing for Hawthorn is they had a solid injury run this year and look ordinary. There is no exciting young talent there.

 

[WillHayward]

Cant help but think Hawks and Bombers are the worst off.

The state of the list is one thing but we have seen clubs rocket up the ladder with schrewd recruiting. E.g Brisbane.

Trouble with hawks and bombers is they have lots of cashed up older flog supporters and members who believe they are too good to bottom out for a while like Brisbane did. They think it is beneath their station.

 

[WillHayward]

At the end of 2014 how many stars did the Dogs have? You know, when their Captain had the Coach sacked them promptly quit the club.

How about Richmond at the end of 2016 when the Swans beat them by over 100 points?

Even 2 years is a lifetime in football. Though at least you are focussing on 4 years, not the usual "Will need to rebuild for a decade" rubbish so many in BF say.

Dogs picked up Macrae in 2012 and Bont in 2013.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Hawthorn’s list is a mess. Easily the worst in the competition now when you take into account both the present and future. The natural result of stupid recruiting decisions, I don’t know what they expected.

North’s list is way underrated because they have had a shocking amount of injuries. I don’t think their list is top end by any means but it wouldn’t be far below average if they got a good run at it.

Crows obviously made some decisions to clear out competitive players who weren’t quite good enough to get it done v the best, but you can see a future with their list, especially as you add some free agents, trades and more high draft picks.

Port is an interesting one. They were in huge danger of becoming too old with no next generation but started to correct that from the 2018 draft. I feel they have too many average players and too many old players to get anywhere in this years finals but they have addressed this with some really strong trading and drafting for the future. They will be delighted to have won so many games this year given some big issues with their list, notably the lack of a gun key defender.

Cats another club like Hawks love recruiting players in the second half of their careers and their best players are old. They lack genuine rucks, damaging forwards, and backs with penetrating run. Generally not drafted brilliantly in the last 8-10 years and whilst clearly their results show their list cannot be near the worst state in the comp, I personally think it is a lot worse than it appears.

I quite like Freo’s list but they have been smashed by injuries to key defenders. If they get their best team on the park they look to have a decent structure and age profile.

 

[Gavin Excell]

De Koening ill grant you is a likely type and Weitering is a neat player but not great ( he'll play 200 games but hes a bit vanilla)

Curnow and Mackay are inconsistent.

Murphy and Ed curnow are playing in the mid

Cripps look injured.

Dow walsh sps havent come on at all.

Rubbish assessment on Walsh

 

[CakeEater]

Rubbish assessment on Walsh

How about the rest of them G E?

 

[Dangerousfield]

I'm not sure what point you are trying to make.

Hawthorn's list profile is nothing like Richmond 2016.

Richmond had a bunch of high draft picks, all-australians, a (multiple) coleman medalist, a Brownlow medalist for a captain, and all relatively young.

Richmond's sh*t year in 2016 wasn't because of the players, hence the huge amount of pressure on Hardwick to keep his job, the board challenge, etc.

Whatever happened to that bunch of Madcaps the "Focus on Footy" attempted Board coup? That was one hilarious episode

 

[TP86]

The AFL list of their current employees.

If hiring Brad Scott in a sham role to save North paying out his contract was bad, imagine having to move him sideways into a job that might actually require working. That’s how bad the AFL are going.

 

[Blue1980]

Carlton.

Their kids havent come on and all of their spine are older players ( Weitering, Jones murphy, curnow levi) which means that they look to have hit their ceiling.

I dont see where their growth will come from.

Weitering is 22, McKay is 22, Charlie Curnow 23. De Koning looks very promising in the ruck too and he’s only 21

We also have Marchbank for defence if he can ever get on the park again.

Levi might be close to the end, Jones should at least have another couple of decent years left.

We have recruited well for KPPs and taller players generally, our issue is zero small forwards or even mid sized forwards on the lift really and lack of midfield depth.

Lack of decent midfield depth is what we need to address, either from guys on the list coming on or got from the draft or trades (more likely traded as I don’t have overly high hopes for guys like Dow, Kennedy, Stocker or O’Brien).

We certainly won’t get much further with the list currently, but I think we have a core to work with who will be around for a while.

I’m far from convinced it will result in top 4 or even a flag, but I’d at least prefer our list over the following:

Hawthorn
Adelaide (yes they just beat us, we also beat Geelong, doesn’t mean we are better than them)
North
Essendon

Aside from those 4 there are a whole bunch who could go either way, we are one of those.

 

[Blue1980]

worpels 21 years old He’s a good young player

Let me assure you Hawthorn will move up the table before Carlton.

Define rise? Top 4? Make the 8? Finish higher than 15th?

 

[Black white]

Carlton
Essendon
North

 

[Blue1980]

As bad as this years been, hawthorn still has a core group of 7-8 players that will still be there in 3-4 years that you can build an elite team around.
Omeara
Wingard
Mitchell
Worpel
Sicily (injured but will be back at some stage)
Impey
Frost
Scrimshaw
Hardwick

then you have Gunston shiels Breust who will help guide the team whilst still playing well.I don’t take anything out of this year other than needing to move a few older guys on which stratts and poppy retiring there’s two but Henderson and Frawley should go as well. Teams can bounce back up recruit 2-3 quality players over a pre season don’t have to be elite but add to the team.

That’s a pretty sad core to carry you through.

Can’t see much a grade talent there.

Really need to draft well from here, though Clarko seems to think that’s too hard.

 

[Blue1980]

Yep, I too would back a team that has won 4 of the past dozen flags to contend again before another team that is halfway through their fourth failed rebuild in two decades.

This old chestnut, because sides who were once successful always remain successful....

 

[Blue1980]

Christ what an uninspiring list that is.

In four years Tom Mitchell and Sam Frost will both be 30+ and clogging up the "One Year Two Many" thread like half your current list is.

Can't see a genuine star amongst that lot.

Sam frost still being on an AFL list in 4 years time seems a stretch, even JOM really with his injury history.

 

[CakeEater]

Weitering is 22, McKay is 22, Charlie Curnow 23. De Koning looks very promising in the ruck too and he’s only 21

We also have Marchbank for defence if he can ever get on the park again.

Levi might be close to the end, Jones should at least have another couple of decent years left.

We have recruited well for KPPs and taller players generally, our issue is zero small forwards or even mid sized forwards on the lift really and lack of midfield depth.

Lack of decent midfield depth is what we need to address, either from guys on the list coming on or got from the draft or trades (more likely traded as I don’t have overly high hopes for guys like Dow, Kennedy, Stocker or O’Brien).

We certainly won’t get much further with the list currently, but I think we have a core to work with who will be around for a while.

I’m far from convinced it will result in top 4 or even a flag, but I’d at least prefer our list over the following:

Hawthorn
Adelaide (yes they just beat us, we also beat Geelong, doesn’t mean we are better than them)
North
Essendon

Aside from those 4 there are a whole bunch who could go either way, we are one of those.

The problem is your improved performance has come from your old timers ( Murphy E curnow into the mids) so the growth and exposure for your young uns isnt there.

My biggest problem with Mckay and C.Curnow is that they havent torn a game up.

I also think Martins exposure to the GC may hold him back from being the player the Blues want.

Weitering, i know theres a view of him being good to great, but I have him as a serviceable 200 game No.1 pick not a world beater.

As for Walsh- If he sticks to the dinky 15-25m kicks (which he executes well) he'll play 200 games but I dont see the wow factor. I compared him to Rhys Palmer ( who had a similarily great 1st season who didnt stay at that level)

I can see how you rate your list higher than the other 4 clubs you've listed however.