Racing Caulfield Cup Day 2020 * All race day discussion/Tips in here please*

[iluvparis]

As discussed endlessly looks a pretty weak edition with two standout winning chances - lottery if either of them run below par

Winning Chances - AVD, VE
Next Best - Buck, Finche, Dalasan
Outside Chance - Avi, Warning, MOW, Toffee Tounge

Happy to pen the rest but for those looking to go even wider in exotics I'd be throwing in POA, Mirage Dancer and Dashing Willoughby

 

[FallingLiefs]

Didn't Dunaden draw 18 in his (and C.Williams) masterclass?

 

[FallingLiefs]

View attachment 985007

That 121 rating stands out... Amazing how cheap VE got into these races at 116, they've gone very soft on her even with the 1.5kg allowance.

Dalasan the true weight horse. Best last start, best on official ratings, only concern last week really looked a top run from him with every chance, does MOW go past him this time? Good race. Will be built around AVD, Dalasan, MOW and Finche. Declaraing i'm off VE this week for first time in a long time, bit short for mine and Caulfield does not suit.

Despite the hate it looks average-above average CC to me.

 

[PieBeast]

AVD is class but geez Toffee Tongue has a lot going for it.
Finche and Dalasan next best.
MOV and POA decent chances too.
* VE

 

[AvantGardener]

Mustajeer 6th last year arguably the equal of any run of the beaten brigade. 2nd to VE in the Tancred which was on soft and has a 3.5kg weight swing. Beat Avilius home and gets a 2kg weight swing. Yes average this Spring but is overs at $101.Sneaky place chance.

 

[AvantGardener]

Win: Dyke / VE
Place: Finche MOW
Smokies: V&D Mirage Dancer Mustajeer

 

[iluvparis]

Thoughts on opening Betfair Market

AVD - Fair
Avi - nice overs
V&D - unders
Buckhurst - nice overs
MD - unders
Mustajeer - whatevs
VE - fair
DW - not much liquidity - mid point probably fair
Finche - fair
POA - unders
MOW - gross unders
TCO - fair
Warning - fair to touch of overs
Dalasan - overs
True Self - unders
Aktau - Unders - genuine 800/1 shot
Toffee Tounge - fair
Cahapda - unders

 

[king rising]

* it. Give Tony strength! Four wide the trip should be of no concern to Tone because he’s a gargantuan colossus. GO

 

[Slipps]

fu** it. Give Tony strength! Four wide the trip should be of no concern to Tone because he’s a gargantuan colossus. GO

 

[Slipps]

Thats butter btw ^^^

 

[HeathySure]

Its a shame there is a "have no clue" option in the poll!

 

[iluvparis]

Its a shame there is a "have no clue" option in the poll!

They do - it's spelt AKTAU

 

[FallingLiefs]

10 second thoughts

AVD - 6.00
VE - 9.50
Finche, MOW, Buck, Dalasan - 11
POA, Warning - 18

Upwards others

 

[AvantGardener]

My thoughts are the Aussie 4yos are being a bit overrated here. Dalasan got close to Camelot in SA Derby but Camel was barely a month past two years of age when that race was on. Camel has come back an even better horse now he is 3.5yrs. Dalasan isn't getting smoked by a 2yo and 6 months later winning a Caulfield Cup. Camel sat 3 wide and destroyed him a couple starts ago when dalasan had some race fitness and a good run which shows the improvement.

Warning is even worse than Dalasan.

Toffee Tongue didn't go around a horse in the Turnbull. While that may happen again here so she might go close she still isn't much chop and will get found out sooner or later.

 

[mattwa]

After the barrier draw its going to have to be a good horse to win AVD but you cannot ignore the quality it has beaten. I've got overs on Prince of arran and il be likely adding master of wine/buck/VE to my slips for the day. Think MOW last run was decent and the hawkes team know how to target a race

 

[iluvparis]

After the barrier draw its going to have to be a good horse to win AVD but you cannot ignore the quality it has beaten. I've got overs on Prince of arran and il be likely adding master of wine/buck/VE to my slips for the day. Think MOW last run was decent and the hawkes team know how to target a race

When was the last time the Hawkes team managed to get a horse to place in either Cup?

 

[Jugada]

The Hawkes' can target a race until a horse turns 4 then they have NFI

 

[onthehill24]

Mustajeer 6th last year arguably the equal of any run of the beaten brigade. 2nd to VE in the Tancred which was on soft and has a 3.5kg weight swing. Beat Avilius home and gets a 2kg weight swing. Yes average this Spring but is overs at $101.Sneaky place chance.

Grand final is Melb cup

 

[AvantGardener]

Grand final is Melb cup

As it was last year. Doesn't mean it won't run a race that belies the odds.

 

[Jugada]

Pretty easy to knock a 100-1 chance obviously but he is is just going awful against terrible horses. Would be an all time WTF if he finished anywhere near the top 4-5

 

[iluvparis]

One witches hat replaced by another

 

[54Dogs]

Why Lees did not go CC with Mug defies belief, esp with the weight. Genuinely one of the worst placers of horses you will ever find.

Now he gets to run on nicely for 2nd last in a CP if he gets a run at all.

 

[year of the cat]

Going to back MOW and TT. Look nicely in at the weights, good barriers. Acknowledge that VE and AVD if get decent runs should fight it out.

 

[HeathySure]

Why Lees did not go CC with Mug defies belief, esp with the weight. Genuinely one of the worst placers of horses you will ever find.

Now he gets to run on nicely for 2nd last in a CP if he gets a run at all.

Any other year i would agree with you, but this year.. the field is so bad in the Cox plate he is more likely to finish 4th in a Cox plate than run top 6 in the Caulfield Cup.

But agree on the placement of horses, J cummings and Lees are absolutely hopeless at placing them

 

[Jugada]

Any other year i would agree with you, but this year.. the field is so bad in the Cox plate he is more likely to finish 4th in a Cox plate than run top 6 in the Caulfield Cup.

But agree on the placement of horses, J cummings and Lees are absolutely hopeless at placing them

Caulfield Cup is definitely the weaker line up. Wouldn't be running top 6 in either though so no real harm done