ICC Mens Cricket World Cup

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Robo87 said:
1u 'Virat Kohli to hit a 4 & a 6 ' vs netherlands @1.91 sb
any other thoughts for this game??
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Geez in hindsight that's a great price, nice find!

I've made good profit backing India in the H2H pretty much all tournament, and I see no reason to stop now. Even if they get knocked off tonight or in the final I'm still well ahead with them this WC.

Will take them at the current $1.35, even if it is a bit short.

The tricky pick is the SA / AUS pick. Currently SA are $2.24 which seems great value for me. It's very dependant on the coin toss but I'm still a little sketchy on the Aussies batting line up, and this has been a batting tournament, it took a Maxwell GOAT ODI innings to get us out of losing to Afghanistan. The South Africans have 2 of the top 10 runscorers and 2 of the top 10 wicket takers compared to Aussies 1 in each category. I just feel they're a little deeper with their form options to be a $2.24 chance.
 

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Tied match $150.

Australia chasing 213 ftw.

These same two teams tied on 213 in the semi final back in '99.

$150 for them to tie again (this time on 212) seems like overs to me.
 
G’day lads, I’ve been focusing on a few career achievements/Tilt Prevention protocol for the past couple of months and haven’t placed a sports bet in that time. I have however, been thinking about Punting recently and different ways to improve the already hugely successful model that I’ve developed with influence and feedback from the greatest punting board on the internet.

So, The time is now right to continue the assault on the books, Aquire more tax free money and advance THE LOCK from its current position of a 160.4U profit on the year.

First of all, I have real questions about India’s batting depth and don’t think it has been tested in this tournament. A bowling all rounder at 7 and then nought after that. By Comparison, Australia’s tail is very strong, especially in these conditions.

Fielding will also play a big part in a pressure final. The Aussies are a far more athletic and dynamic fielding side and the Indian fielding/body language has not been great in the past few games.

I know a lot has been made about the home crowd advantage, but we must remember how fickle these people(Hindus)can be. Home crowd advantage could easily turn into a massive weight of expectation.

I also believe, on a basic level, that if you were the captain of a lunch time cricket match and you had to pick a side from the two teams in the final, you would end up with a team that closely resembles the Australian side.

Furthermore,The Aussies have adjusted to the conditions(8/8) and have not been engaging in victim mentality about them, instead looking at proactive strategies(low middle bats etc.) that other teams have not.

So basically, Australia are a man for man better and more balanced side, have adjusted to the conditions and have demonstrated excellent mental and strategic agility/flexibility.

For these reasons, THE AUSSIES TO WIN@$3 ARE THE LONG SHOT LOUIE LOCK OF THE WEEK.

5 Units
 
Told ya. Told ya when it first started. Market always favored you if you got on India, and it still favors you now.


Absolutely love it! Killed it. Got em:cool:
 
Long Shot Louie said:
First of all, I have real questions about India’s batting depth and don’t think it has been tested in this tournament.
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After ten matches, if they 'haven't been tested', doesn't that say something about their quality in the first place?

They could post 200 and defend it with their bowling stocks and Australia's batting lineup.
 
Long Shot Louie said:
G’day lads, I’ve been focusing on a few career achievements/Tilt Prevention protocol for the past couple of months and haven’t placed a sports bet in that time. I have however, been thinking about Punting recently and different ways to improve the already hugely successful model that I’ve developed with influence and feedback from the greatest punting board on the internet.

So, The time is now right to continue the assault on the books, Aquire more tax free money and advance THE LOCK from its current position of a 160.4U profit on the year.

First of all, I have real questions about India’s batting depth and don’t think it has been tested in this tournament. A bowling all rounder at 7 and then nought after that. By Comparison, Australia’s tail is very strong, especially in these conditions.

Fielding will also play a big part in a pressure final. The Aussies are a far more athletic and dynamic fielding side and the Indian fielding/body language has not been great in the past few games.

I know a lot has been made about the home crowd advantage, but we must remember how fickle these people(Hindus)can be. Home crowd advantage could easily turn into a massive weight of expectation.

I also believe, on a basic level, that if you were the captain of a lunch time cricket match and you had to pick a side from the two teams in the final, you would end up with a team that closely resembles the Australian side.

Furthermore,The Aussies have adjusted to the conditions(8/8) and have not been engaging in victim mentality about them, instead looking at proactive strategies(low middle bats etc.) that other teams have not.

So basically, Australia are a man for man better and more balanced side, have adjusted to the conditions and have demonstrated excellent mental and strategic agility/flexibility.

For these reasons, THE AUSSIES TO WIN@$3 ARE THE LONG SHOT LOUIE LOCK OF THE WEEK.

5 Units
Click to expand...

Good luck. I’m not having a bet on it as I think the odds are bang on both sides, but obviously hope for an Aus win.

However strongly disagree with your logic - batting depth is not tested because all of Gill, Sharma, Kohli, Iyer, Rahul have been more than enough for them to post 300+ in 4 of the 5 times they have batted first, and to chase down any score posted when batting 2nd.

As we saw when they played England, if on the 1 in 10 chance they fail, they have a wicked bowling attack.
 
I feel like the best argument for Aus winning is “vibe”, “culture” type things. Fantastic record in cups in cricket. It’s not a real reason but if either of NZ or SA had made it I’d say no chance, but Aus is never out of world cups.
 
mouncey2franklin said:
After ten matches, if they 'haven't been tested', doesn't that say something about their quality in the first place?
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HTPunter said:
Good luck. I’m not having a bet on it as I think the odds are bang on both sides, but obviously hope for an Aus win.

However strongly disagree with your logic - batting depth is not tested because all of Gill, Sharma, Kohli, Iyer, Rahul have been more than enough for them to post 300+ in 4 of the 5 times they have batted first, and to chase down any score posted when batting 2nd.
Click to expand...
What I meant Lads, is that their tail end batters have not been exposed in this tournament(literally haven’t had to bat much at all). Yes, I totally agree that the Top order has been great, but I just think that Australia has the big dogs up front and the good fielding to take wickets and force them to either temper the aggressive batting or risk the long tail being exposed.

I really think that the Indian lineup misses a Pandya or Thakur. They only have 5 proper bowling options as well. Team balance looks all off to me. Somehow they have both a long tail and no 6th bowler. What happens if one bowler is getting carted/cramping?

Even though they’re highly skilled, I reckon all the Indian pacers bowl the same type of low trajectory ball.

Aussies just look more robust/adaptable and like they have more paths to victory than India. India need more things to go right to my eyes.
HTPunter said:
I feel like the best argument for Aus winning is “vibe”, “culture” type things. Fantastic record in cups in cricket. It’s not a real reason but if either of NZ or SA had made it I’d say no chance, but Aus is never out of world cups.
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This is definitely a part of it as well.
Along with the strategic and personal elements, I don’t think Australia should be 3 to 1 and I will happily hit them at that price.
 
Long Shot Louie said:
What I meant Lads, is that their tail end batters have not been exposed in this tournament(literally haven’t had to bat much at all). Yes, I totally agree that the Top order has been great, but I just think that Australia has the big dogs up front and the good fielding to take wickets and force them to either temper the aggressive batting or risk the long tail being exposed.
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Thanks for the clarification. What you are saying here makes sense.

Do you believe Australia's bowlers can do enough damage to India's top and middle order to expose the tail?

Starc and Hazlewood were dynamite yesterday but prior to that, they were the 3rd least damaging opening duo in the tournament.

That is, in terms of the first ten overs per innings bowled, Australia took less wickets across the tournament than seven other teams.

And against South Africa they were bowling on a minefield pitch in bowler friendly conditions against a notoriously mentally fragile team, with an opening batsman (Bavuma) who was averaging about 20 for the tournament prior to the match.

In other words, it was set up for Starc/Hazle to look the goods, and they did, but it papers over what has been a woeful tournament for them so far in terms of powerplay1 wickets.

If India serves up a road, and Aus fail to take at least three wickets in PP1, India's tail won't matter.

If India serves up a spinner's wicket, again, their tail won't matter (because Aus won't score >200).

So you are betting on Starc and Hazlewood run through India's top order.

You have barely steered us wrong this year so I will take a very small nibble on this one to ride it with you, but in all honesty, I think Aus have done an excellent job to make the final, an effort to be proud of, but they are nothing more than an outside chance in this one.

I used to dislike the Indian team but these days they are pretty likeable imho, even if their fans can be some of the most insufferable in world sport. Kohli is a superstar and if he goes out on top with a win, I say good on him, he deserves it.
 

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mouncey2franklin said:
Thanks for the clarification. What you are saying here makes sense.

Do you believe Australia's bowlers can do enough damage to India's top and middle order to expose the tail?

Starc and Hazlewood were dynamite yesterday but prior to that, they were the 3rd least damaging opening duo in the tournament.

That is, in terms of the first ten overs per innings bowled, Australia took less wickets across the tournament than seven other teams.

And against South Africa they were bowling on a minefield pitch in bowler friendly conditions against a notoriously mentally fragile team, with an opening batsman (Bavuma) who was averaging about 20 for the tournament prior to the match.

In other words, it was set up for Starc/Hazle to look the goods, and they did, but it papers over what has been a woeful tournament for them so far in terms of powerplay1 wickets.

If India serves up a road, and Aus fail to take at least three wickets in PP1, India's tail won't matter.

If India serves up a spinner's wicket, again, their tail won't matter (because Aus won't score >200).

So you are betting on Starc and Hazlewood run through India's top order.

You have barely steered us wrong this year so I will take a very small nibble on this one to ride it with you, but in all honesty, I think Aus have done an excellent job to make the final, an effort to be proud of, but they are nothing more than an outside chance in this one.

I used to dislike the Indian team but these days they are pretty likeable imho, even if their fans can be some of the most insufferable in world sport. Kohli is a superstar and if he goes out on top with a win, I say good on him, he deserves it.
Click to expand...
Australia did take 3 wickets in the opening 2 overs when they played India at the very start of the tournament…

Worth noting that the toss could be important as 3/4 teams chasing at the ground have won.
 
mouncey2franklin said:
Do you believe Australia's bowlers can do enough damage to India's top and middle order to expose the tail?
Click to expand...
Yes. Yes I do, Brother.

As FadingTheFave said, in the first match of the tournament, 3 of the Indian top order got out for ducks and they easily could have been 4 down for not many if Kohli wasn’t dropped early on. The dew came in after that and Australia didn’t have enough runs on the board.

Also, 3 out of the 4 teams who have batted first on this wicket have been bowled out and the other side lost 9 wickets. None made over 300. This increases my belief that the entire batting lineup will be required and increases the value of fielding if it is a tight affair.

Australia are an entirely different proposition at this point of the tournament(having adapted)and the odds are not reflecting that. I even think that India’s named side in the first encounter looked a lot more balanced than the one they’ll go in with here. They are sort of being forced to stick with the 3 pacers because of their good performances so far.

It’s a bit of a catch 22 for India with the pitch. If they prepare a spinning wicket, then I think that Siraj and Shami are hittable and they’ll have to bowl them out their overs due to lack of a 6th bowling option. Zampa has also been the best spinner in the tournament and Head looms as a threat as well.

I just think that India need to play crisp/good/clean cricket(top order scores runs, bowlers bowl well) in order to win, whereas Australia can have things go suboptimal and still win due to the great versatility in their team. Every member of the Aussie team except for Smith and Hazelwood does multiple things. Head and Marsh bowl, Maxwell bowls and is an elite fielder, Warner and Marnus are elite fielders, Starc, Cummins and Zampa can bat. The Indian side, with the exception of Jadeja, looks to be made up of (very good)one dimensional players.

I think, in a high energy final where there is likely to be big swings of momentum, that these things matter and the more adaptable team will win.

Basically, Australia are an underrated, great ODI team, and the $3 on offer feels like Promo odds.
 
Long Shot Louie said:
Yes. Yes I do, Brother.

As FadingTheFave said, in the first match of the tournament, 3 of the Indian top order got out for ducks and they easily could have been 4 down for not many if Kohli wasn’t dropped early on. The dew came in after that and Australia didn’t have enough runs on the board.

Also, 3 out of the 4 teams who have batted first on this wicket have been bowled out and the other side lost 9 wickets. None made over 300. This increases my belief that the entire batting lineup will be required and increases the value of fielding if it is a tight affair.

Australia are an entirely different proposition at this point of the tournament(having adapted)and the odds are not reflecting that. I even think that India’s named side in the first encounter looked a lot more balanced than the one they’ll go in with here. They are sort of being forced to stick with the 3 pacers because of their good performances so far.

It’s a bit of a catch 22 for India with the pitch. If they prepare a spinning wicket, then I think that Siraj and Shami are hittable and they’ll have to bowl them out their overs due to lack of a 6th bowling option. Zampa has also been the best spinner in the tournament and Head looms as a threat as well.

I just think that India need to play crisp/good/clean cricket(top order scores runs, bowlers bowl well) in order to win, whereas Australia can have things go suboptimal and still win due to the great versatility in their team. Every member of the Aussie team except for Smith and Hazelwood does multiple things. Head and Marsh bowl, Maxwell bowls and is an elite fielder, Warner and Marnus are elite fielders, Starc, Cummins and Zampa can bat. The Indian side, with the exception of Jadeja, looks to be made up of (very good)one dimensional players.

I think, in a high energy final where there is likely to be big swings of momentum, that these things matter and the more adaptable team will win.

Basically, Australia are an underrated, great ODI team, and the $3 on offer feels like Promo odds.
Click to expand...
Odds are drifting Long Shot Louie is it time to pull the trigger and get more units on?
3.15 on TAB
 
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